The percentage of new recruits into the field who actually become competent at their field is much smaller in baseball than it is in just about every other field out there. These are people who we are not even sure if they are competent, yet they are getting more money, right away, than many people will see in several years to a lifetime (depending on the prospect). I don’t feel sorry for them.

Really, you can’t compare baseball with becoming a lawyer or doctor or engineer or some other professional career. What you should be comparing it to is other high glamor/high fame/high pay fields out there, such as writing or acting or music. In those fields, the first pay one will see is quite small usually. Especially compared to what baseball prospects get.

If a publisher purchases a story (which is a lesser chance than getting drafted, I believe) then it would be quite a hit to receive a 50,000 dollar advanced check. Most get less than that.

In acting, usually one must get bit parts that do not pay very well to start out with.

In music, the first contract one gets is usually quite small. The majority of bands that make a career out of their music don’t make anywhere near the bonuses of high draft picks. In fact, I would say that music is a fairly good comp. We can compare the career minor leaguer to most bands that make a living with their music; perpetually on the road, making okay money doing what they love.

So what about choosing where they want to work? Well, again, it’s very similar. An author is wise to send his/her submissions to many publishing company, hoping to be picked up. That author does not get to choose who to work for, at first. Ditto musical acts and actors.

I don’t see why you think the draft system will collapse. And I don’t agree that a free-agent system is better. In my mind, unless you have compelling reasons to change it, don’t.

The draft may well collapse; and your thought experiment has been interesting. But I would disagree with your last statement in this way: a full free-agent system will be better for young athletes and better for WEALTHY teams. As cited above, there are small-market teams that don’t seem to care about developing a winning team (KC & Oakland), and small-market teams that do (Minnesota & Florida, although the Marlins are a rather unique case). Full free agency wouldn’t affect KC much, but would really screw the chances of teams like the Twins, who are doing all they can (making wise baseball decisions) under limited circumstances. Perhaps a better question is: how do we get the Kansas Citys of the major leagues to really care about winning? Maybe their recent drafts are an indication that management’s focus is coming around. We can only hope so.

Well, since the 40’s and 50’s were possibly the least competitive era’s in major league history, that’s not hard to do.