The Last 46: A Statistical Look
by rhys on Aug 11, 2008 10:41 AM PDT
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This is a fair, numbers-based, analysis of our remaining schedule. This is not an optimistic, “OH MY GOSH WE’RE CONTENDERS” rant.
The Remaining Schedule
The Numbers:
Pittsburgh (53-64): 3 games
Florida (62-56): 3 games
Cincinnati (52-67): 3 games
Houston (58-59): 4 games
Atlanta (55-63): 4 games
Da Bums (58-59): 6 games
D-Bags (60-58): 7 games
Padres (46-72): 7 games
Colorado (53-67): 9 games
Combined Records of Above Teams: 497- 565 OR .468
46 games left total
25 road games
21 home games
29 divisional games (63%)
Games against current .500 or better teams: 10 (7 against the Snakes) (22%)
Florida is 6 over .500 and D-Bags are only 2 over .500
The Horrifying Truth: Only one of these godawful teams is worse than our Giants.
Good Omen: We are currently 21-22 against NL West teams, who make up 63% of our remaining schedule.
Other Good Omen: We have won 3 straight series and 6/9, all against teams we will be playing in the next 46 games.
Bad Omen: We currently pay Jose Castillo to play baseball.
Meh Omen: We are 9 games out. Make of it what you will.
My Opinion: This is a cakewalk schedule. However, we are not very good. I believe we have an outside shot to contend, but I would be shocked if it happened. Stunned, like the French relay team last night.
Can we contend? Do we have any chance at all? Discuss…
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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There is only one goal for this year
OK, two.
Cy Young for Timmy
High draft pick
Reconcile those two things however you will.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Even if we somehow made the playoffs...
Our record would still be poor enough to get a decent draft pick.
And I believe Timmy’s Cy is inevitable.
And he has to WIN to get it.
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
Webb is also going to end up pitching a lot more innings than Timmy which is actually a quite legitimate comparison in his favor.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Aug 11, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Timmy's CY is NOT inevitable
I would say that right now, Webb has a significant lead, based on stupid factors like number of wins. If both of them pitch well the whole way out, Tim probably gets shut down early, Webb ends up with way more wins, and Webb likely gets the award.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
Can anybody give a logical argument as to why Webb should win the Cy Young over Lincecum
that doesn’t involve W/L record?
Theres still a lot of time left in the season, but as of today, Lincecum is better in ERA, ERA+, FIP, K/9, K etc etc etc. It was so ridiculous to hear Baseball tonight talk about Webb as if he has no competition for the Cy Young.
Because Wins are still highly regarded by the mainstream.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 11, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
We have scored the fewest in the Major Leagues
‘nuff said.
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
runs, that is
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
3.84 Runs/Game!!!
Actually, that seems high.
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
2.88 and 2.68 are NOT the same
Also, you can consider Quality Starts
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
whoops, that was misplaced
see below
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
veteran savvy!
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 11, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the other W/L is a major consideration
which is team W/L.
Unless Lincecum is head and shoulders better in his stats vs. Webb, then Webb is going to get the bigger bet for the Cy Young because the voters often take the team’s situation into account, unless it is something ridiculous like Steve Carlton winning nearly half the games his team won while having superlatives stats overall.
Not saying that’s right, just saying that’s what’s happening.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Aug 11, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Webb has 15 more innings pitched—which is to say, he’s gotten 46 more batters out. That’s close to two full ballgames. Of course, Timmy’s allowing substantially fewer runs per inning.
I think they’re about even—along with Haren, Billingsley, Santana, Dempster, Sheets, and maybe Hamels. It will go down to the wire.
In theory, anyway. In reality, Webb has basically already won it, because of W-L record.
he has 11 more
and that’s with one more start than Lincecum. If you go by average innings per start, they’re about the same(even if you include that 4 inning “start” against LA)
It's not logical but it's an argument:
He’s on a better (see: less bad) team?
Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.
I Love Timmy But Even With Wins Put Aside Brandon Is The Better Pitcher In 2008
Personally I have little doubt that Timmy will beat out Brandon for more Cy Youngs then Brandon will beat out Timmy over their careers. That said, Brandon has Timmy beat in everything that matters other then Strikeouts and a very small advantage in ERA this year.
WHIP 1.13 vs 1.23
K/BB 3.39 vs 3.02
GO/AO 3.45 vs 1.30
OBP .291 vs .308
SLG .321 vs .332
OPS .612 vs ..640
by giantsrainman on Aug 11, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Um
Timmy’s not winning the Cy Young. Just forget it. Webb has 17 wins, and his ERA is essentially the same as Lincecum’s.
Sadly, I agree with this
Timmy is a better pitcher in many ways, but he plays for a worse team, and he’s been shafted out of 2 potential wins by umpires. Wins are a MAJOR factor for the Cy Young. That irritates me. So does the All-Star ballot system. So do the choices for many other baseball awards. Other than that, it’s still a mostly-perfect game.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
this
Sadly.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 11, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
also shafted out of 2 (maybe more) wins by bullpen
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
I think it's like 5 or 6
Whereas, Brandon Webbs Bullpen has only blown ONE of his wins and his offense has actually saved him from about 2-3 more losses.
2.88 and 2.68 are NOT the same
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
if Timmy was 12-1 like he should be
do you think he could win? I don’t count that game against the Brewers that was totally Bochey’s fault. I also don’t count that Colorado game with the shitty umps.
Just as well. A bunch of Cy Youngs would only make him harder to sign to a long-term deal. :-)
I think the other thing that bodes well for Webb is reputation. Webb has been a hella good pitcher for a while now and Tim might still be a potnetial flash in the pan to some writers.
Adoptive father of howtheyscored. The beatings will begin momentarily.
Flash in the pan?
I think someone’s going to kill me after this post, but. I think Lincecum this year has been a semi-flash in the pan. There. I said it.
Do we honestly think he can keep up an 80% won-loss percentage, ERA under 3.00 for a long time? If so, we don’t have an ace on our hands, we have a future Hall of Famer. I’d like to think we do, but honestly do you believe that?
That being said, I think he is going to be very, very good. Like Matt Cain very, very good except without the win-less curse.
My predicted line for Lincecum next year: 15-8 3.45 ERA 230 Ks 210 IP
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
Do we honestly think he can keep up an 80% won-loss percentage
Don’t know, don’t really care.
Do we honestly think he can keep up an…ERA under 3.00 for a long time
Probably. There’s plenty of reasons to think he can.
Do we honestly think…we have a future Hall of Famer?
Why do you think so many people are nuts over him? He has the ability to be that good.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Your prediction for next year is a really good year, too.
Timmy is a future hall of famer. Barring injuries, he will go in. He is only going to get better and he is already one of the best pitchers in the game. This is not him being a flash in the pan. This is real.
Seriously, name five pitchers that you would rather have start game 7 for you right now. Peavy, Sabathia, Webb… Those are the only three that pop out to me as a pitcher that if I absolutely had to win I would trust to get it done (other than Timmy.)
Just you wait till Sharksrog gets his hands on you for doubting The Enchanter.
Finally : LOL at the comparison to Cain. Cain is great and will likely get better. Timmy is already better than Cain will likely ever be.
by positiveuphemism on Aug 11, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I wrote a really long reply to this but it got deleted. Boo...
Yes, I do mean to say that Lincecum will have a really good year next year. I just don’t think he’s going to go Pedro Martinez 1997-2000 on us, which is what it seems like the consensus is here on this site. Look at his peripherals from last year. The walk rate is a little bit down from then, but besides that, his peripherals are pretty similar. Yet his ERA was almost double what it is today. I don’t think it’s really that unreasonable for me to believe that he will regress (a little bit).
My gut feeling is that Lincecum will get a little worse and Cain will get a little better in terms of numbers. So perhaps Lincecum will still have an edge on Cain, but I don’t think it’ll be by much. Either way we have a great 1-2 punch for the next few years and I fully expect this team to be amazing in a couple of years, as long as the Management does not decide to continue that sign-stopgap-veterans-to-two-year-deals bullcrap.
P.S. I would also include Santana on that list. He would be in the Cy Young picture right now if his team didn’t suck balls every time he was on the mound. So that makes Lincecum the #5 pitcher in the Majors. Yes I’m saying he’s good.
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
Oh yeah
Forgot Santana.
I guess we’ll disagree on Timmy. I expect him to improve his control and get nastier and nastier. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub 2.00, 20 win, 12 k / 9ip in the next few years.
His showing this year is not unprecedented, the difference is that HE seems different. He has that special glow about him that makes him stand out. I am totally convinced he will be universally regarded as the best pitcher of his generation by the time he is a free agent. $$$$ for Timmy. I hope we can afford to keep him and/or he wants to stay.
Just a quick glance at Pedro’s early years gives me the impression that Timmy is better, at this point (1.5 years in) than Pedro was after about 4 years (once he had a year as a starting pitcher.) Pedro appears to have had a slightly lower BAA, but less K’s and about equal HR/BBs.
by positiveuphemism on Aug 11, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
The walk rate is a little bit down from then, but besides that, his peripherals are pretty similar. Yet his ERA was almost double what it is today. I don’t think it’s really that unreasonable for me to believe that he will regress (a little bit).
He was a rookie last year but even still, he had a 2.96 ERA in his final 15 starts. Also, his ERA is Irrelevant…his FIP had him ranked 8th in the NL(although in a smaller sample size) ahead of guys like cain and hammels. He was ranked 16th in all of the major league ahead of guys like Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez and Chein-ming Wang. And thats all in his rookie year.
Don't forget
When he turned wine into water, that was pretty cool.
by positiveuphemism on Aug 11, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
4x100 wow
Currently watching Dalhausser/Rogers in Men’s beach volleyball and the look like jackasses with no lenses in their sunglass frames (stupid Oakley sponsorship deals).
As for the Giants…
I don’t think we will contend but with that schedule and our terrible division you never really know. I think we will play close to .500 ball the rest of the way home and finish 8-12 games back.
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
a choking beast, maybe
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 11, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
on contending
there is no way you can even begin to discuss this as long as we are still behind the Rox.
one questions
does 2.88=2.68?
thanks in advance for clearing this up
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
I knew this would happen...
damn my slow internet and faulty enter key
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
Also damn the innate ability of all McCoven (myself included) to recognize ALL typing errors
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
I don't see Washington on the schedule
the Giants will not get into contention without a majority of their games being played against the Nationals and/or some high school teams.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 11, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions
Facing Washington
is the worst thing for us to contend. It’s because of them that we are around 6 games out as it is. Even more games and we will have no shot at the #1 pick. No more Expos, please.
by positiveuphemism on Aug 11, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Put me down for “keep winning”. Let’s get ahead of the Rox and scare the Dodgers and D-backs. I know it’ll hurt our draft position to finish strong, but screw it. Whoever we draft will be a crap shoot that’s years away from helping the team.
I want the players to finish feeling good about themselves
I the team to determine who fits into their plans next year
I want my remaining games to be entertaining
I want to be able to hang onto some optimism during the off-season
I want a pony
Adoptive father of howtheyscored. The beatings will begin momentarily.
My feelings exactly
except for the pony.
He (or she) is all yours, Goofus.
50-66
Adopted Giant: Daryl Maday - Just got promoted to CT, and is now sporting a gleaming 8.35 ERA.
All i want
I want the number 1 draft pick because it’s fairly obvus Strasburg is going number 1. I havent heard anyone getting close to his dominance.
As much as i want a Cy Young for Tim, i doubt it’s this year. I’m fine with this, especially if it means we can sign him a bit cheaper i nthe offseason or next year. I really really really dont want to see tim go through arbitration and hate the giants because they are pinching pennies.
+1 sorta
except i’m not certain Straburg is #1. I’m hoping we get the #1 and there is an Arod type HS hitter available. It’s been a while since a player of that caliber showed up and they seem to be around once a decade or so. Why not this year and for us?
by positiveuphemism on Aug 11, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Lincecum's agents
I’m pretty sure they have an idea of how good our Enchanter is. Cy Young Awards or not, they’re probably not gonna get swindled by the great mouth-breathing Brian Sabean.
Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.
No,
but it would be another bullet in the agent’s gun. The less the better. I hope he gets absolutely rocked next year when we’re gonna suck anyway. Then we sign him to an extremely long term deal, and Lincecum returns to 2008 form. We get an ace for $7 mil/year over 10 years ;D
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
BUY! BUY! BUY!
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
I think to contend we’d have to go something like 500-0 over our next 46 games.
So, yes.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
I'm not sure about your math there, big guy. No, wait-- that's actually right.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 11, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
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