Steve Phillips: Making the playoffs is worth $10-30 MM

by cakes on Jul 9, 2008 10:56 AM PDT

Here's some food for thought: In his ESPN.com chat today, Steve Phillips answered a question about buying at the trading deadline.

Q: What is your view on giving up top prospects for a 2 month rental, and not knowing if that player will return the next year (ex. Carlos Lee, Mark Teixera, C.C. Sabathia)?

A: The answer to that question is different for every organization based on the time and place in which they find themselves...You never know from year to year whether you will be in a position to make the playoffs and ultimately win a Series. When you find yourself in that spot, you have to go for it. For the Cubs and Brewers, their past neccessitates going for it. They have to give their fans a shot to experience the playoffs. That can be worth anywhere from $10 to $30 million based upon your market and your past. That is an awful lot of money with which to replenish your farm system.

I think this is an interesting point that people miss when talking about the Giants. Obviously the club is in a weird spot where there's actually a chance they could make the playoffs, even though the team isn't very good. People are talking about whether Sabean should buy or sell, and most of the sentiment on this board is that we shouldn't trade away our young players for short term gain (which I tend to agree with). But what Phillips is saying is that if you take that risk and you do make the playoffs, the club will make enough money to sign more prospects (that are obviously farther away) - in fact, so much money that the farm system actually may end up being stronger for it in the end.

What do you guys think?

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BUY! BUY! BUY!

by positiveuphemism on Jul 9, 2008 11:14 AM PDT 0 recs

He might be right, but...

The Cubs and Brewers made serious impact moves that improve those teams drastically and take them to a new level.

The Giants just aren’t in that situation. We could have acquired both Harden and Sabathia and still not be a playoff team.

It’s only worthwhile to do such a move if you can ACTUALLY make the playoffs as a result

www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)

by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2008 11:18 AM PDT 0 recs

Maybe we wouldn't have made the playoffs

But it might have been worth it just to have a rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Harden and Sabathia for half a year.

Hmm. Probably not.

Only 883 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 9, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

we make the playoffs with that rotation guaranteed

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Jul 9, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

Are you arguing that acquiring Sabathia = not having to watch Zito for three months?

Sold.

Of course, if you’re arguing that the Giants would sit the $126M man, not sold so much.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 9, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Steve Phillips is kind of a dumbass though.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 9, 2008 11:18 AM PDT 0 recs

BUT HE WAS GM FOR THE METS ONCE SO HE MUST BE SUPERSMART

Everybody Loves Durham
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by Natto on Jul 9, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up 0 recs

Don't forget...

He also works for ESPN. That must make him the bestest of best!

by Rusty the Robot on Jul 9, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yes. Except for the "kind of".

I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."

by Mayor of 311 on Jul 9, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up 0 recs

The Giants aren’t going to make the playoffs.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 9, 2008 11:18 AM PDT 0 recs

not with that attitude, they're not.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 9, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up 0 recs

This is technically correct, although I don’t see the Giants making the playoffs with ANY OTHER attitude either.

by paboperfecto on Jul 9, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

I guess he's not a gamer

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 9, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

I was going to say this, too.

I still just don’t see how it’s even a question. We’re what, 11 games under .500 in a season when even during stretches where fans say we’re playing well, we’re only capable of STAYING at 11 games under .500?

That does not equal win. Not even in math.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 9, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

It’s a good point. Here’s another: Even if you don’t make the post-season, just staying in the hunt is worth some extra revenue, since non-season-ticket attendence is likely to remain higher through the remainder of the season.

We may deride the whole “meaningless games” thing, but it certainly means something to the bottom line if a team stays in contention.

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 9, 2008 11:19 AM PDT 0 recs

To the bottom line, yes, but...

... it only makes a difference if the money is pumped back into player acquisition and development and not taken as profit or used for debt relief.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on Jul 9, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think Steve Phillips is full of shit, which is why he’s bloviating on ESPN instead of running a major league team. Even that $10 million figure sounds kind of high. Is he talking about the extra revenue from hosting playoff games? The impact of new season-ticket holders coming on board?

To put it another way: if your team could realize an extra $30 million just by making the playoffs, wouldn’t every team in remote contention be making trades at the deadline? And yet the last couple trading deadlines have been fairly quiet.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on Jul 9, 2008 11:23 AM PDT 0 recs

if your team could realize an extra
> $30 million just by making the playoffs,
> wouldn’t every team in remote contention
> be making trades at the deadline?

If it really was $30M, then yes probably. But if we think of it as more $8-12M, then teams would prolly act … pretty much as they do now. Picking up a mid-season star is not of course not any guarantee that you’ll make the playoffs, in fact nothing mid-season is much a guarantee (except maybe a ten game lead or something and a .580+ third order winning %), so the “playoff payoff” is not something you can bet on with certainty.

by SnowLeopard on Jul 9, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up 0 recs

Is he talking about the extra revenue from hosting playoff games?
> The impact of new season-ticket holders coming on board?

Maybe nationally televised TV revenue too? I think that that’s where MLB gets a lot of money from.

by SnowLeopard on Jul 9, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up 0 recs

That's a possibility

I’m not suggesting there’s NO money in making the playoffs, just that for most large-market teams with a payroll north of $75 million or so, it’s probably not significant enough to be a bottom-line issue.

As for the $30 million figure thrown around, I realize Phillips might be talking about the Red Sox (they probably have made an extra $25 million from the sale of pink caps alone). But they’re a revenue-generating juggernaut on a whole other level, so it’s apples and oranges.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on Jul 9, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

he embarrassed the Mets as a GM, not only with incompetence and a feud with the manager, but a sexual harrassment lawsuit from some secretary he was bonking. And did you see this secretary?? Not a good GM, and no taste in women.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Jul 9, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

$10 millions not much at all

If you figure the maximum opportunity, a team could conceivably have 11 extra home games which would be around 450,000 extra tickets at an increased price level. An average ticket price of $20 would get you 10 million right there, and the average playoff ticket is certainly going to be much higher than $20 even in Milwaukee. That’s without going into concessions, etc.

But tickets aren’t even the big payoff. Financially, the great thing about the post-season is that all national coverage (both TV and radio) are only split between the two competing teams, not all 30 like most national coverage. Again, if you win a series or two that adds up quickly.

So, yeah, $30 mil doesnt’ seem entirely unreasonable.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Jul 9, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

I have seen other studies

To this same effect. I beleive the numbers are reasonable.

And besides – it’s not as if you have to speculate. The teams know these #’s.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 9, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

30 million in revenue seems reasonable

But how much in expenses and revenue sharing?

Of cours,e if you’re out in the first round, I’d imagine that the revenues are cut substantially.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 9, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

the giants are currently 6 games out of first place in their weak division
one big addition is all it would take for us to finish first

however….

the giants are cureently 5.5 games out of last place IN ALL OF BASEBALL
and the #1 pick

by melottfan on Jul 9, 2008 11:26 AM PDT 0 recs

I remember

being annoyed in some past year, 2002 or 2004 or whenver, when the G-Men wouldn’t pick up some star guy mid-season (I forget who) who was available for cheap as a salary dump, and McGowan and Sabean pathetically tried to bleat out something about the extra $5M in payroll. And I was all like, “Beeeeatches, you get yer ass into the playoffs, and that money gets taken care of. Put it in gear and get in the passing lane, for Christ’s sake!”

by SnowLeopard on Jul 9, 2008 11:51 AM PDT 0 recs

Sell, Sell, Sell...

The way LA and AZ are coming from ahead and losing, there is no reason to think that we will be worse off by staying in re-build mode. However I find it very unlikely that niether one of those teams will not get hot in the 2nd half and bring us all back to reality.

Natto has it right.

by toofruss on Jul 9, 2008 11:54 AM PDT 0 recs

Natto?

If he knew what he was talking about, he’d be someone’s GM.

Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!

by UnleashTheGore on Jul 9, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up 0 recs

I’m surprised I haven’t had any offers from ESPN though.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 9, 2008 1:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

Buzz Bissinger thinks you’re full of shit.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on Jul 9, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

You just gonna take that Natto? I’m going to have to re-consider my endorsement.

by toofruss on Jul 9, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

#1 in 2009

Would be my goal. Big Straberg believer, though I have never seen him.

BP pegs their playoff odds at no better than 5%.

There isn’t anyone on the team that can reasonably be expected to play much better than their are already playing, nor are there any call-ups that should help very much. Play for 2010 -2012.

I would trade anyone if a team is willing to overpay.

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 9, 2008 12:30 PM PDT 0 recs

There isn’t anyone on the team that can reasonably be expected to play much better than their are already playing,

Cain?
Correia j(if only ust being healthy and not being Misch?)
Zito?

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 9, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Well

Cain could be better – but my mental emphasis way on the “much” portion of that sentence. Cain’s numbers are just slightly worse that his career line. So yes, he could/should be expected to be better, but probably not difference-making better.

Correia….well, i not sure it is fair to say that he should be expected to be bettter than a 4.50 or so ERA – and that isn’t that much better than his is doing now.

I think both Cain and Correia have the ability to be much better in the second half, but I don’t think that it is fair to expect it.

Zito’s performance going forward is a mystery – if he shows 87-88, then he should be much better, but 83-84 will lead to more awfulfulness. So, unlike the other two, it’s a pretty scouting report dependent situation to me.

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 9, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

I’ll be snarky and say that based on what Zito’s getting paid, it’s reasonable to expect a much better performance. :-)

I agree that expacting much better from Cain isn’t realistic since he hasn’t been that bad.

Correia, I believe is the guy we can expect much more from. As I implied orignally, just the fact that his return bumped Misch from the lineup was an awfully big improvement. I expect him to be the Kevin Correia that I love so much (there, I said it) and put up an ERA of about 4.00 the rest of the way.

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 9, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

even if Correia is that good

It still is only about a 2-3 win difference.

But I sure hope it happens, also being a fan of him because of his misuse by management.

My top 7 most mismanaged Giant pitchers of recent memory:

1. Sanchez
2. Foppert
3. Correia
4. Cain
5. Taschner
6. Ainsworth
7. Jerome Williams

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 9, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

oops

forgot Valdez. He should be #3

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 10, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think the Nats are gonna put a stranglehold on that in the 2nd half

They’re getting very very close to fielding an entire AAA lineup—and not a AAA lineup from a good farm system either. And most of these injuries seem to be either TBD lingering issues or good old fashioned out for a couple months. I really don’t see how they avoid 105 or more losses at this point. Even with the strong effort Seattle’s making, I don’t see anybody taking away the honor away from Washington.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Jul 9, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

but we can counter with

Velez/Roberts Rowand Lewis

Ochoa                      Denker

Castillo Bowker

Alfonzo/Holm

That is pretty bad…

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 9, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

that was some weird autoformatting

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Jul 9, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

happens to the best (and worst ) of us

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 9, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

To prove both halves of that point, it even happened to me once.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 9, 2008 5:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

We need to sell at the deadline, but I sure miss the good old days when we were buyers. Those days were fun. Don Robinson, Rick Reuschel, Ellis Burks, even Sidney Ponson, who was awful, but it was exciting at the time. I remember we were so good the year we picked up Robinson and Reuschel that I actually felt a little guilty. It didn’t seem fair to the rest of the teams in the league.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Jul 9, 2008 1:25 PM PDT 0 recs

Bah! And bah fooey!

I don’t care about $10-30M—I don’t own a piece of the team. I don’t give a crap about building a farm system to be competitive for many years to come. I JUST WANT ONE – ONLY ONE – WORLD SERIES SO THAT I CAN FINALLY NOT HEAR CRAP FROM DODGER FANS. The Giants haven’t won a World Series in my lifetime. They should have gone all in 2002! F’IN SCOTT SPIEZIO!!!!

Supply the entire team with Cream and Clear if need be. Steal signs using telephoto lenses from center field if that’s what it takes. Supply Barry Zito with sandpaper and Vasaline. The point being—I and other fans of my similar unstable psyche don’t care about just making the playoffs. It only matters when you win it all!

This year’s team is a crock of crap and stinks to high heaven, so obviously, I have no answers. I’m only here to whine.

P.S. —A Red Sox like dynasty would be nice too.

by Rusty the Robot on Jul 9, 2008 4:01 PM PDT 0 recs

A's fans too

I don’t really care either way about the team, I sometimes root for them, but I’ve never met an A’s fan who isn’t rude to Giants fans; I grew up in the East Bay during the 70’s so I’ve heard everything. Ultimately, we are all baseball fans and if they were kind human beings, they would understand how Giants fans feel about that fact. So I don’t root against the A’s, but if they disappoint A’s fans, I’m not shedding a tear over it.

Luckily, I got a life so I don’t have to get up Raider’s fans and lord over them the Niners 5 Super Bowls with no losses; I hope that the A’s fans find whatever they need to get over the fact that a team that won all those World Series without any help from them (or even before they were born) happens to be the team they follow.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 9, 2008 10:06 PM PDT up 0 recs