What could the Giants get for their All-Star closer?

no way

keep Wilson. Rod Beck didnt look all that good on paper either. I dont want to tempt Sabean into overpaying for another Benitez-type.

by sam23 on Jul 6, 2008 5:50 PM PDT 0 recs

Beck looked fine on paper

not so much in the uniform or on the radar gun, however.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 6, 2008 6:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

He almost always manages to deliver the expected 2 strikeouts and a baserunner. I am quite happy with that. He’s young, healthy, and seems to have the right attitude. The Giants have been missing a closer for years, and taken a lot of heat over deals they’ve made that sent great closers-to-be to other teams. I can understand why someone would want to do this if a) we had another young great closer waiting in the wings and b) Wilson were older, but minus those scenarios, why would you leverage this important part of our future?

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 6, 2008 5:54 PM PDT 0 recs

And let me be clear

I don’t think we have any ace closers waiting in the wings. Merkin still needs to prove he can be healthy. Hinshaw is totally untested. We’d probably go back to Tyler Walker and Brad Hennessey, or something similar. No facking thanks!

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 6, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

but what could we get was the question i believe

Rafael Rodriguez: Vlad Guerrero on layaway?

by BrianBokake on Jul 6, 2008 5:56 PM PDT 0 recs

My answer

A future where we don’t have to worry about our closer.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 6, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

I’d prefer to keep Wilson – he’s my favorite reliever we’ve had since Joe Nathan was traded. I’m high on Merkin Valdez too, but as mentioned above, he still needs to prove he can stay healthy.

With that having been said, Lincecum is the only player on the 25-man I think should be absolutely, 100% untouchable. If an overwhelming offer came along for Wilson, I’d certainly want Sabean to think about it long and hard.

by jcb9 on Jul 6, 2008 6:01 PM PDT 0 recs

I understand not wanting to trade Wilson

I’d prefer to retain a lights-out closer too, but that’s a luxury right now. The Giants aren’t going anywhere in ‘08, so if we can get another GM to overpay for Wilson, I’m all ears.

Understand, too, that Wilson probably can’t sustain this level of performance. It’s all a crap shoot, of course, but his peripherals suggest that he won’t continue to perform this well.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 6:05 PM PDT 0 recs

He's only blown 2 saves all year.(I think)

I don’t care about peripherals, he gets the job done.

by giants9107 on Jul 6, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

He’s gotten the job done—but will he continue to? That’s what will determine his future value, and that’s what I’m speculating about here. I suspect that he’s playing over his head now, and he;s just been anointed as an All-Star. You don’t get any shinier than that!

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 6:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Well, in save situations, he has a 2.73 ERA, 2.3/1 K/BB ratio, and a 1.18 WHIP.

I think the key is putting him in a save situation. Those overall numbers are really “meh,” but he’s been quite reliable with the game on the line.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

Intriguing

But I don’t know how much I buy that. I know a lot of closing games is mental, but I don’t necessarily buy the “Wilson can only perform when the game is on the line” thing. Seems like a cop out to explain some of his shortcomings.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

The numbers support the claim. I don’t know what else to say. He does what he’s supposed to do in save situations.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 7:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

It's true

The numbers definitely support the claim, but is it correlation or causation? Is our non-save-sitch sample size large enough to draw a conclusion from?

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 7:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

In terms of his entire career, Wilson has a 5.03 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in non-save situations to a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in save situations. That’s 39.1 IP in non SVO and 49.1 IP in SVO.

It might not be a large enough sample size to your liking, but the difference is enough for me.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 7:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

that's a pretty good sample size

and the differences are pretty pronounced. put that in the “half of closing ballgames is mental” category!

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

=D

IIRC, Joe Borowski also had something like that going on in 2007. Look where he is now . . .

So, you could very well be right in the long run.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 8:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

Hey, Wilson is a lot better than Joe Borowski.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 6, 2008 10:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

Uhh...

...Joe Borowski was also 36 years old in 2007, so his decline isn’t a very good comp for Wilson.

The All-Father is now a Giant!

by EliminateMe on Jul 7, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

My personal analysis

My personal analysis shows that Brian has pitched well with fewer than four days between appearances and poorly with four or more days between them.

by sharksrog on Jul 7, 2008 12:47 AM PDT up 0 recs

You don’t get any shinier than that….this year.

by paboperfecto on Jul 7, 2008 6:00 AM PDT up 0 recs

Peripherals are a better predictor of future success than “getting the job done”.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jul 6, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

I wonder how you would expect his peripherals to improve (or decline) with experience, though. Is he at a fairly stable age, developmentally speaking? I know relievers are unstable by nature, too… but I really love the thought of Brian Wilson IF he gets better…

Who knows, though. I don’t relish the thought of trading Wilson, personally, but I wouldn’t necessarily debate against the reasons for doing so.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 6, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

If he can improve his control a bit, which is entirely possible, he could step into the elite class of closers. However, in my mind, the natural instability of relievers is the best reason to trade them off when their value is high.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jul 6, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

I meant

He obviously has the mental part, which some guys with the better peripherals might lack.

by giants9107 on Jul 6, 2008 6:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

His peripherals are actually fine… his FIP is 3.38. That’s not really elite closer level, but it’s a lot better than his actual ERA.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 6, 2008 6:06 PM PDT 0 recs

his one big issue is his walk rate

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 6, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

A Giants developed pitcher who's big issue is his walk rate?

Hmm, I think I’ve seen this movie before.

Only 884 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 7, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up 0 recs

The original French version is superior to the remake.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 7, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

Did the remake maintain the complex eroticism of the French original?

...I like the way they think.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 7, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

The DPs in the new version are a pale shadow of the original

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Jul 7, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

French version: Jonathan in the Afternoon
American version: I Think I Love Our Bullpen

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 7, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up 1 recs

very funny..rec’d

Billy Ripken is not a fuck face

by Karlifornia on Jul 7, 2008 1:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

Bullpen Dangereux.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jul 7, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

There's 2 ways of looking at it

You have a young guy who leads the league in saves and is the closer from now through the future. You gotta hang on to him his value is decent im sure but i young guy who hits a devestating triple digits gotta hold the guy.

by FutureGiantsGm24 on Jul 6, 2008 6:22 PM PDT 0 recs

what in the who now??

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

That’s apparently how everybody talks in the “future”....

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Jul 6, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

Wait a minute, wait a minute Doc, uh, are you telling me you built a time machine… out of a DeLorean?!

My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .

by nvsfg on Jul 6, 2008 8:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

Peripherals

Brian Wilson is tied for fifth on his own team in ERA among pitchers who have pitched as many or more innings as he. He is tied for sixth in WHIP.

How do we like Tyler Walker? Tyler is tied with Brian in ERA—and has a WHIP that is .20 per inning LOWER. How do we like the recently-demoted Vinnie Chulk? Even HIS WHIP is more than .10 per inning lower than Brian’s.

I wouldn’t trade Brian just to trade him. But if the offer were truly good, I would indeed pull the trigger. A year ago I wanted Matt Morris, Noah Lowry and Brad Hennessey traded, and none of the three is still pitching in the majors (for different reasons). I certainly don’t WANT Brian Wilson traded, but I would be open to it.

When Brian first came up, I couldn’t decide if he would be really good or be bad. There were too many conflicting signals. Last season in the minors he was AWFUL early and very good late. This season he has been up and down more than the stock market. I STILL can’t tell, although I am at least a bit more optimistic.

But that is why if a really nice offer came in, I would pull the trigger on it. Even if he improves his other numbers, Brian’s save percentage won’t hold up. It’s only a matter of time.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 6:29 PM PDT 0 recs

I like Walker and Chulk, but I can’t speak for the other people around here.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 6, 2008 6:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

I like them plenty... as a couple.

I would be happy to officiate the vows, if they’d like.

I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."

by Mayor of 311 on Jul 6, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

I dunno

Which teams could use a closer? Seems like most of the ones in contention are already set in that position.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 6, 2008 6:45 PM PDT 0 recs

but teams want closers to be set-up guys in their pens. The Rays are talking with the Rockies for Fuentes for example.

Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on Jul 6, 2008 7:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yes

The Mets could trade for Wilson to set-up for Wagner this season and then replace Wagner next season when he retires. The Angels could use Wilson to set-up for KRod this season and then let KRod walk next season rather than pay him the crazy money he wants.

by wilriv21 on Jul 6, 2008 8:33 PM PDT up 0 recs

I can't seriously believe Troy Percival is going to hold up through October...

but then again, they still have Dan Wheeler to turn to.

If it comes down to Wilson being traded for “setup duty”, I think that’s vastly undervaluing his “shiny” factor. If some team’s going to send over a mid-level prospect because they want Brian to pitch the 7th, we’re getting hosed.

I’m not expecting Longoria in return, but the fact is, some team could get the NL Leader in saves, and Brian Sabean can’t be the ONLY GM currently out there who ignores peripherals and would be salivating over that fact.

by ExcuseMeSwing on Jul 6, 2008 7:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

he’s probably outperforming a bit, but he’s got some room to improve with experience. i’m all for selling high, and we have plenty of young arms to replace him with the next couple years… can we get an above-average third baseman, or an almost-ready stud prospect? sharksrog is right; sabean has a history of holding onto players until their stock plummets…. it is nice having a closer though.

Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.

by jasomack on Jul 6, 2008 7:18 PM PDT 0 recs

Sabes has traded closers of the future before

less often has he traded the closers of now. Is Wilson comparable at this age to a Nathan or Foulke? Accardo? What could he get in return? I’d rather the front office traded Walker and Yabu (two other shiny relievers) than Wilson. But if a good offer came around, I think Sabean should take it. If the trade nets Shea Hillenbrand Mark 2 or even D.MacPherson I wouldn’t really like the deal. Wilson is currently worth a lot – more for his potential and salary curve than his shiny save numbers, IMO.

Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on Jul 6, 2008 7:38 PM PDT 0 recs

I just really like

his strikeout rate.
That should mean something good.

His saves overrate him, but I think his ERA underrates him.

by DesertFox on Jul 6, 2008 7:44 PM PDT 0 recs

concur

I guess I’m hoping other GMs would overrate his saves and his All-Star Game appearance more than the ERA would hurt him.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 7:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Very Foxy

Good comments, Fox!

by sharksrog on Jul 7, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up 0 recs

Wilson shouldn't go...

but Tyler Walker should. I know he’s a bay area guy and i like him, but he is too unreliable. whenever he pitches, i automatically think at least 1 run is coming in for the opposing team..

by MeTaLLiCs0naTaS on Jul 6, 2008 10:26 PM PDT 0 recs

We've been so desperate for a closer,

that I can’t let Wilson go (unless the deal is just ridiculously one-sided in our favor).

However, I am more than willing to trade Yabu, Walker, etc. for anything and replace them with the young guys Hinshaw, Romo, Valdez. But the closer’s role is a whole different ball game, and you can’t assume the others can just fill in. Wilson, on the other hand, has been able to do it brilliantly.

by lincecumania on Jul 6, 2008 10:45 PM PDT 0 recs

40 comments and not one suggestion of what we could get for Wilson, come on guys, you’re all usually much more creative than this! I would like to go on the record for having absolutely no idea what kind of value Wilson would have on the trade market, andfor not adding anything of value at all to this conversation

I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken

by joeytothelimit on Jul 6, 2008 10:54 PM PDT 0 recs

Not one suggestion from you? Come on! I kid.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 6, 2008 11:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

you’re all usually much more creative than this

40 comments in the “What could we get for Brian Wilson” fanpost and not one of them is about what we could get for Brian Wilson. I’d say that’s plenty creative.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jul 6, 2008 11:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah right the Giants would trade Wilson, and I had a chance to ride a unicorn today.

by Mr. Clutch on Jul 7, 2008 12:08 AM PDT 0 recs

It would be retarded to trade Wilson. He’s got Nen type stuff and its only his first year as a closer. He’s done very well. His numbers have only gotten better over the past month and a half or so. His ERA continues to drop. Keep Wilson.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 7, 2008 12:12 AM PDT 0 recs

I’m not against the general idea of trading Wilson, but not right now. Looking at his peripherals, it seems to me that he’s underperforming. His FIP is about 1 point lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is just way too high for his LD%.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Jul 7, 2008 3:34 AM PDT 0 recs

THIS

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 7, 2008 8:03 AM PDT up 0 recs

They could get a sweater for him

Bullpens can get really cold at night.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on Jul 7, 2008 6:00 AM PDT 1 recs

What's wrong with his peripherals???

His FIP is 3.38
His K/9 is over 10
His K/BB is a respectable 2.44
His walk rate is high, but he has improved from a rough start in that regard
His K rate has improved in each of the first 3 months
His HR/9 rate is 0.77
His LD% allowed so far is 14.9
His G/F ratio is 1.48, which isn’t incredible, but clearly shows the guy gets his fair share of groundballs, which is always a plus in my book.
His BABIP is .314, which isn’t absurdly high, but enough to show he’s been slightly unlucky and hasn’t had the best defense behind him

Wilson may not deserve to be an all-star, but he should clearly be able to improve his numbers in the second half. He’s been a bit unlucky in the first half and thus his ERA and WHIP are slightly inflated. Despite the “lack of luck” he has also had a great save rate which shows just how mentally tough this kid is. Those things will even themselves out in the 2nd half, helping Wilson, and Wilson can also make strides from there to improve his control, which could really make him special.

If Wilson can ever get his BB/9 below 3.00, he will be an elite closer. I think he has all the intangibles and tangibles needed to be great and once he gets his command down, he will be.

www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)

by NeifiChicken on Jul 7, 2008 8:44 AM PDT 0 recs

Hell, even better!

That means we don’t need to find the next Dave Littlefield to fleece—even a real GM should see Wilson’s value. His high save-conversion rate and All-Star selection is just the icing on the cake.

Having a lights-out closer this year is a luxury the Giants can’t afford, and frankly don’t need. We have a glut of young arms, any one of which might become an elite closer (only time will tell, of course). I think Sabean should make good on his stated game plan of trading arms for bats, and move Wilson for some stud position player prospects.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 7, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up 0 recs

if the eprfect offer came along, maybe

but we still have Wilson under control for 5 more seasons, so he is a young player that will only get better. We can keep him another 2 years and if we have a glut of arms and he has reached his peak value, THEN I would look to trade him.

As for now, there is just little incentive. Our bulpen isn’t overloaded with talent and trading Wilson to solve an offensive issue will just create issues in our pen.

www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)

by NeifiChicken on Jul 7, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up 0 recs

The offer would have to be awesome, I agree

But I guess I disagree on a couple of other details:

1. I’m not convinced Wilson’s value will ever be higher than it is right now. It might be, but I’m not 100% sold. As noted above, he could be Joe Borowski in 2 years. Of course, he could also be Robb Nen.

B. I think we are loaded with talent. If Hinshaw and Sadler and Romo pan out, and if Merkin comes back healthy, we’re LOADED with quality arms. The incentive, IMO, is getting stud position players that can make the Giants competitive in 2010 (let’s say, just for the sake of argument).

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 7, 2008 9:28 AM PDT up 0 recs

Wilson was voted in by the PLAYERS

Might we be getting a little carried away with looking at peripherals for a guy with a sample size that remains pretty small?

- We’ve got a guy that could be our first legit cloer under our control for the next five years?
- The team has the potenital to be competitive in the next year or two, but is not expected to blow teams away with offense so we’ll need someone who can close out tight games.
- At this point in his career, he compares favorable to Nen
- He clearly relishes the closer role
- He was voted an All-Star by his fellow players. Sure, they probably look at the number of saves more than peripherals, but these guys are the guys who have had to face him. I suspect there’s a lot of talk around the league about how nasty his stuff is.

If I’m GM, there’s probably not a GM out there willing to trade what it would take to pry him away from me. I’m talking a Longoria type of talent.

Let’s groom Hinshaw, Sadler or Romo as set-up man, then market one of them next season as “closer talent”.

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 7, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up 0 recs

None of those guys would get you what Wilson would

Wilson is a “proven” All-Star closer, whereas Hinshaw, Sadler, and Romo, even next year, will be untested in the closer role. I’m just trying to sell high here, Billy Beane style. =)

As I said above, the deal would have to be awesome. (Maybe not Longoria-awesome, but close.) If no one wants to pony up, then we (happily) hang on to him. But Sabean should at least be taking calls and passively shopping him.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 7, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up 0 recs

But Sabean should at least be taking calls and passively shopping him.

Agreed. I’d listen to offers regarding any player, including Lincecum (although I’d probably laugh in the face of the other GM suggesting a deal for Tim)

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jul 7, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

“Taking calls and passively shopping him” is not what you said in the fanpost.

“I’m all for moving Wilson very soon” is what you said, which seems to imply MAKING calls and ACTIVELY shopping him, which, when Sabean is at the helm, is a completely doomed venture.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 7, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

easy, fella!

What I would do (or what I would have Sabes do) =/= what I expect him to do.

Also, there’s a qualifier: he should be AT LEAST taking calls and passively shopping him.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 7, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

I’m just not sure that his current walk rate is some new level of skill. It’s well below his AAA walk rates. He might have made a leap forward in control, I’m just not ready to claim he has after so few innings.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jul 7, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up 0 recs