What could the Giants get for their All-Star closer?
by delorean on Jul 6, 2008 5:45 PM PDT
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PrintBrian Wilson has been a great surprise this year. Taking a look at his peripherals, there's no reason to expect that he'd be leading the league in saves. Which means he is likely overperforming, which means he probaby won't be able to sustain his current level of performance or save conversion.
Since selling high is the name of the game, I'm all for moving Wilson very soon. He's not gonna get any shinier, and the next Giants closer may already be in the bullpen (Sergio Romo).
Armchair GMs: would you trade Wilson? Who out there needs a closer, and what would you ask for in return?
109 75 Williams A's
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no way
keep Wilson. Rod Beck didnt look all that good on paper either. I dont want to tempt Sabean into overpaying for another Benitez-type.
Beck looked fine on paper
not so much in the uniform or on the radar gun, however.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Wilson has amazing "stuff"
He almost always manages to deliver the expected 2 strikeouts and a baserunner. I am quite happy with that. He’s young, healthy, and seems to have the right attitude. The Giants have been missing a closer for years, and taken a lot of heat over deals they’ve made that sent great closers-to-be to other teams. I can understand why someone would want to do this if a) we had another young great closer waiting in the wings and b) Wilson were older, but minus those scenarios, why would you leverage this important part of our future?
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
And let me be clear
I don’t think we have any ace closers waiting in the wings. Merkin still needs to prove he can be healthy. Hinshaw is totally untested. We’d probably go back to Tyler Walker and Brad Hennessey, or something similar. No facking thanks!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
My answer
A future where we don’t have to worry about our closer.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
I’d prefer to keep Wilson – he’s my favorite reliever we’ve had since Joe Nathan was traded. I’m high on Merkin Valdez too, but as mentioned above, he still needs to prove he can stay healthy.
With that having been said, Lincecum is the only player on the 25-man I think should be absolutely, 100% untouchable. If an overwhelming offer came along for Wilson, I’d certainly want Sabean to think about it long and hard.
I understand not wanting to trade Wilson
I’d prefer to retain a lights-out closer too, but that’s a luxury right now. The Giants aren’t going anywhere in ‘08, so if we can get another GM to overpay for Wilson, I’m all ears.
Understand, too, that Wilson probably can’t sustain this level of performance. It’s all a crap shoot, of course, but his peripherals suggest that he won’t continue to perform this well.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
He's only blown 2 saves all year.(I think)
I don’t care about peripherals, he gets the job done.
by KTJ on Jul 6, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s gotten the job done—but will he continue to? That’s what will determine his future value, and that’s what I’m speculating about here. I suspect that he’s playing over his head now, and he;s just been anointed as an All-Star. You don’t get any shinier than that!
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Well, in save situations, he has a 2.73 ERA, 2.3/1 K/BB ratio, and a 1.18 WHIP.
I think the key is putting him in a save situation. Those overall numbers are really “meh,” but he’s been quite reliable with the game on the line.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
Intriguing
But I don’t know how much I buy that. I know a lot of closing games is mental, but I don’t necessarily buy the “Wilson can only perform when the game is on the line” thing. Seems like a cop out to explain some of his shortcomings.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
The numbers support the claim. I don’t know what else to say. He does what he’s supposed to do in save situations.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
It's true
The numbers definitely support the claim, but is it correlation or causation? Is our non-save-sitch sample size large enough to draw a conclusion from?
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
In terms of his entire career, Wilson has a 5.03 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in non-save situations to a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in save situations. That’s 39.1 IP in non SVO and 49.1 IP in SVO.
It might not be a large enough sample size to your liking, but the difference is enough for me.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
that's a pretty good sample size
and the differences are pretty pronounced. put that in the “half of closing ballgames is mental” category!
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
=D
IIRC, Joe Borowski also had something like that going on in 2007. Look where he is now . . .
So, you could very well be right in the long run.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
Uhh...
...Joe Borowski was also 36 years old in 2007, so his decline isn’t a very good comp for Wilson.
The All-Father is now a Giant!
My personal analysis
My personal analysis shows that Brian has pitched well with fewer than four days between appearances and poorly with four or more days between them.
Peripherals are a better predictor of future success than “getting the job done”.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I wonder how you would expect his peripherals to improve (or decline) with experience, though. Is he at a fairly stable age, developmentally speaking? I know relievers are unstable by nature, too… but I really love the thought of Brian Wilson IF he gets better…
Who knows, though. I don’t relish the thought of trading Wilson, personally, but I wouldn’t necessarily debate against the reasons for doing so.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jul 6, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
If he can improve his control a bit, which is entirely possible, he could step into the elite class of closers. However, in my mind, the natural instability of relievers is the best reason to trade them off when their value is high.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
His peripherals are actually fine… his FIP is 3.38. That’s not really elite closer level, but it’s a lot better than his actual ERA.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
A Giants developed pitcher who's big issue is his walk rate?
Hmm, I think I’ve seen this movie before.
Only 884 games until the end of Zito's contract
Did the remake maintain the complex eroticism of the French original?
...I like the way they think.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
French version: Jonathan in the Afternoon
American version: I Think I Love Our Bullpen
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 7, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bullpen Dangereux.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
There's 2 ways of looking at it
You have a young guy who leads the league in saves and is the closer from now through the future. You gotta hang on to him his value is decent im sure but i young guy who hits a devestating triple digits gotta hold the guy.
by FutureGiantsGm24 on Jul 6, 2008 6:22 PM PDT reply actions
That’s apparently how everybody talks in the “future”....
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
Wait a minute, wait a minute Doc, uh, are you telling me you built a time machine… out of a DeLorean?!
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
Peripherals
Brian Wilson is tied for fifth on his own team in ERA among pitchers who have pitched as many or more innings as he. He is tied for sixth in WHIP.
How do we like Tyler Walker? Tyler is tied with Brian in ERA—and has a WHIP that is .20 per inning LOWER. How do we like the recently-demoted Vinnie Chulk? Even HIS WHIP is more than .10 per inning lower than Brian’s.
I wouldn’t trade Brian just to trade him. But if the offer were truly good, I would indeed pull the trigger. A year ago I wanted Matt Morris, Noah Lowry and Brad Hennessey traded, and none of the three is still pitching in the majors (for different reasons). I certainly don’t WANT Brian Wilson traded, but I would be open to it.
When Brian first came up, I couldn’t decide if he would be really good or be bad. There were too many conflicting signals. Last season in the minors he was AWFUL early and very good late. This season he has been up and down more than the stock market. I STILL can’t tell, although I am at least a bit more optimistic.
But that is why if a really nice offer came in, I would pull the trigger on it. Even if he improves his other numbers, Brian’s save percentage won’t hold up. It’s only a matter of time.
I like them plenty... as a couple.
I would be happy to officiate the vows, if they’d like.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Jul 6, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno
Which teams could use a closer? Seems like most of the ones in contention are already set in that position.
but teams want closers to be set-up guys in their pens. The Rays are talking with the Rockies for Fuentes for example.
Castillo hits doubles.
Yes
The Mets could trade for Wilson to set-up for Wagner this season and then replace Wagner next season when he retires. The Angels could use Wilson to set-up for KRod this season and then let KRod walk next season rather than pay him the crazy money he wants.
I can't seriously believe Troy Percival is going to hold up through October...
but then again, they still have Dan Wheeler to turn to.
If it comes down to Wilson being traded for “setup duty”, I think that’s vastly undervaluing his “shiny” factor. If some team’s going to send over a mid-level prospect because they want Brian to pitch the 7th, we’re getting hosed.
I’m not expecting Longoria in return, but the fact is, some team could get the NL Leader in saves, and Brian Sabean can’t be the ONLY GM currently out there who ignores peripherals and would be salivating over that fact.
by ExcuseMeSwing on Jul 6, 2008 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
he’s probably outperforming a bit, but he’s got some room to improve with experience. i’m all for selling high, and we have plenty of young arms to replace him with the next couple years… can we get an above-average third baseman, or an almost-ready stud prospect? sharksrog is right; sabean has a history of holding onto players until their stock plummets…. it is nice having a closer though.
Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.
Sabes has traded closers of the future before
less often has he traded the closers of now. Is Wilson comparable at this age to a Nathan or Foulke? Accardo? What could he get in return? I’d rather the front office traded Walker and Yabu (two other shiny relievers) than Wilson. But if a good offer came around, I think Sabean should take it. If the trade nets Shea Hillenbrand Mark 2 or even D.MacPherson I wouldn’t really like the deal. Wilson is currently worth a lot – more for his potential and salary curve than his shiny save numbers, IMO.
Castillo hits doubles.
I just really like
his strikeout rate.
That should mean something good.
His saves overrate him, but I think his ERA underrates him.
Wilson shouldn't go...
but Tyler Walker should. I know he’s a bay area guy and i like him, but he is too unreliable. whenever he pitches, i automatically think at least 1 run is coming in for the opposing team..
by MeTaLLiCs0naTaS on Jul 6, 2008 10:26 PM PDT reply actions
We've been so desperate for a closer,
that I can’t let Wilson go (unless the deal is just ridiculously one-sided in our favor).
However, I am more than willing to trade Yabu, Walker, etc. for anything and replace them with the young guys Hinshaw, Romo, Valdez. But the closer’s role is a whole different ball game, and you can’t assume the others can just fill in. Wilson, on the other hand, has been able to do it brilliantly.
40 comments and not one suggestion of what we could get for Wilson, come on guys, you’re all usually much more creative than this! I would like to go on the record for having absolutely no idea what kind of value Wilson would have on the trade market, andfor not adding anything of value at all to this conversation
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
you’re all usually much more creative than this
40 comments in the “What could we get for Brian Wilson” fanpost and not one of them is about what we could get for Brian Wilson. I’d say that’s plenty creative.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
I’m not against the general idea of trading Wilson, but not right now. Looking at his peripherals, it seems to me that he’s underperforming. His FIP is about 1 point lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is just way too high for his LD%.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
They could get a sweater for him
Bullpens can get really cold at night.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
by S.F. Giangst on Jul 7, 2008 6:00 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
What's wrong with his peripherals???
His FIP is 3.38
His K/9 is over 10
His K/BB is a respectable 2.44
His walk rate is high, but he has improved from a rough start in that regard
His K rate has improved in each of the first 3 months
His HR/9 rate is 0.77
His LD% allowed so far is 14.9
His G/F ratio is 1.48, which isn’t incredible, but clearly shows the guy gets his fair share of groundballs, which is always a plus in my book.
His BABIP is .314, which isn’t absurdly high, but enough to show he’s been slightly unlucky and hasn’t had the best defense behind him
Wilson may not deserve to be an all-star, but he should clearly be able to improve his numbers in the second half. He’s been a bit unlucky in the first half and thus his ERA and WHIP are slightly inflated. Despite the “lack of luck” he has also had a great save rate which shows just how mentally tough this kid is. Those things will even themselves out in the 2nd half, helping Wilson, and Wilson can also make strides from there to improve his control, which could really make him special.
If Wilson can ever get his BB/9 below 3.00, he will be an elite closer. I think he has all the intangibles and tangibles needed to be great and once he gets his command down, he will be.
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
Hell, even better!
That means we don’t need to find the next Dave Littlefield to fleece—even a real GM should see Wilson’s value. His high save-conversion rate and All-Star selection is just the icing on the cake.
Having a lights-out closer this year is a luxury the Giants can’t afford, and frankly don’t need. We have a glut of young arms, any one of which might become an elite closer (only time will tell, of course). I think Sabean should make good on his stated game plan of trading arms for bats, and move Wilson for some stud position player prospects.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
if the eprfect offer came along, maybe
but we still have Wilson under control for 5 more seasons, so he is a young player that will only get better. We can keep him another 2 years and if we have a glut of arms and he has reached his peak value, THEN I would look to trade him.
As for now, there is just little incentive. Our bulpen isn’t overloaded with talent and trading Wilson to solve an offensive issue will just create issues in our pen.
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
The offer would have to be awesome, I agree
But I guess I disagree on a couple of other details:
1. I’m not convinced Wilson’s value will ever be higher than it is right now. It might be, but I’m not 100% sold. As noted above, he could be Joe Borowski in 2 years. Of course, he could also be Robb Nen.
B. I think we are loaded with talent. If Hinshaw and Sadler and Romo pan out, and if Merkin comes back healthy, we’re LOADED with quality arms. The incentive, IMO, is getting stud position players that can make the Giants competitive in 2010 (let’s say, just for the sake of argument).
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Wilson was voted in by the PLAYERS
Might we be getting a little carried away with looking at peripherals for a guy with a sample size that remains pretty small?
- We’ve got a guy that could be our first legit cloer under our control for the next five years?
- The team has the potenital to be competitive in the next year or two, but is not expected to blow teams away with offense so we’ll need someone who can close out tight games.
- At this point in his career, he compares favorable to Nen
- He clearly relishes the closer role
- He was voted an All-Star by his fellow players. Sure, they probably look at the number of saves more than peripherals, but these guys are the guys who have had to face him. I suspect there’s a lot of talk around the league about how nasty his stuff is.
If I’m GM, there’s probably not a GM out there willing to trade what it would take to pry him away from me. I’m talking a Longoria type of talent.
Let’s groom Hinshaw, Sadler or Romo as set-up man, then market one of them next season as “closer talent”.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
None of those guys would get you what Wilson would
Wilson is a “proven” All-Star closer, whereas Hinshaw, Sadler, and Romo, even next year, will be untested in the closer role. I’m just trying to sell high here, Billy Beane style. =)
As I said above, the deal would have to be awesome. (Maybe not Longoria-awesome, but close.) If no one wants to pony up, then we (happily) hang on to him. But Sabean should at least be taking calls and passively shopping him.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Liar Liar Pants on Fire
“Taking calls and passively shopping him” is not what you said in the fanpost.
“I’m all for moving Wilson very soon” is what you said, which seems to imply MAKING calls and ACTIVELY shopping him, which, when Sabean is at the helm, is a completely doomed venture.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
easy, fella!
What I would do (or what I would have Sabes do) =/= what I expect him to do.
Also, there’s a qualifier: he should be AT LEAST taking calls and passively shopping him.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
I’m just not sure that his current walk rate is some new level of skill. It’s well below his AAA walk rates. He might have made a leap forward in control, I’m just not ready to claim he has after so few innings.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
But he’s so scrappy!
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
Oh is this when we play that game Barf All Over the Keyboard?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 7, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh man now I can’t stop vomiting.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 7, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
You people are the anti-Beanes. You think you can get good players for people like Yabu?
When you have a chip, you move him for quantity. If we could trade Wilson, then we should trade him for two prospects. Keep on stockpiling the talent. Do what the A’s do.
Billy Ripken is not a fuck face
Remember when Huston Street got traded for a bunch of mediocre prospects?
That was probably Billy Beane’s best move.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
Stop wasting our time: Brian Wilson won't be traded
Jeez, how many times must we go through this??
From the future: 2010 all star game
Joe Schumck: Well, Tim. It looked like the NL was making a move. It had cut a 5-0 deficit to 5-4 going into the seventh inning, and then in came Jeremy Accardo, Joe Nathan and Brian Wilson to mow down the NL with 9 straight strikeouts. Amazing.
McCarver: What’s really amazing is that all three started their careers with the San Francisco Giants and now they have Joe Borowski closing games for them.
Schmuck: That was all the work of the last GM, the late Brian Sabean
McCarver: And all he got for them was a catcher who was released, a pitcher who was DFA’d and claimed by nobody, and a guy named Billy Bob Prospect who blew out his arm and now sprinkles the garlic on the fries at the Gilroy’s stand.
Schmuck: And the most ironic thing was that Sabean was shot and killed by a Giant fan who actually posted a trade Brian Wilson thread on a blogsite back in 2008. Never should have listened to the lunatic fringe, Brian!!
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
Seriously
I really just don’t understand the seeming groundswell to trade Brian Wilson.
This team finally has a young player who looks like he could be a serviceable closer for a few years, and everyone wants to get rid of him?
So we can suffer through the closer-by-committee that we have endured since Nen left for the next 4 years?
No Thanks. Maybe Brian Wilson works out for us, maybe not – but at some point you have to actually keep some talented players if you ever want this team to be good again. Right now, trading Brian Wilson creates a hole. It is not worth it unless it fills at least two others. The idea that Hinshaw, Sadler, Romo, Matos, or any of the other young relievers could just “drop in” to the closer role and perform even close to satisfactory is overly optomistic. There is a reason this team has struggled in that role since Nen – closer quality relievers don’t grow on trees.
Trying to “be like the A’s” is not really a great strategy if you ever want to actually win anything more than your (weak) division. In case you didn’t realize, the A’s haven’t been to the WS since 1990, and Billy Beane and the “sell high” approach didn’t have anything to do with the team at that time. The A’s are a low-budget small market team that cannot afford to retain the talent they develop. As a result, they trade the players off before their FA years for younger undeveloped talent. This puts the team in a perpetual rebuilding stage that limits their ability to compete with the elite teams (Yankee’s, Red Sox, etc) that they invariably have to face when they do fluke into the playoffs.
So if you want the Giants to get rolled out of the playoffs in the 1st round for the next 5 years and never have a core of talented players, year after year, then sure – trade Wilson, Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Lewis, etc for prosects – anyone who has value as they approach arbitration. Personally I would rather the owners of this team invest some of the money we are paying them as fans in contracts to retain these quality players and build a team that can and will compete deep into the playoffs for years to come.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jul 7, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
IGMAIAWTC
Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of guys roll through town with a closer’s stuff and other guys with a closer’s makeup, but very few with both. (Who else besdines Nen and Shooter?)
Not having to worry about who can close games for the next few years is worth more to us than it is to some team looking for a closer for their current pennant race. This is why I think a sweet enough deal won’t come along.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
build a team that can and will compete deep into the playoffs for years to come
That’s exactly what I’m suggesting ownership do, just in a different way. In my hypothetical, there’s a hole at closer; in yours, there are holes in the offense. 6 gross of one, 72 dozen of another.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
the problem with your “solution” is that you have opened the closer hole, and really done nothing to close these holes in the offense that you speak of. You haven’t mentioned a name they could get for Wilson, and if it’s a kid in the minor leagues, you can’t assume this kid will get up here and be a star. He very easily could be a failure, something you already know for a fact that Brian Wilson will not be. You’re counting on the man who traded Nathan and Accardo to once again trade a closer, and this one is even worse, because this man has already reached all star status in SF while the others were just kids with potential. This is Wilson’s first full season in the majors, and he leads the league in saves and has made the all star game. The things we don’t like about Wilson might be fixed with experience and might not be, but he is already one of the elite just the way he is. He should be the second most untradeable player on this team next to the other guy who made the all star team.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
Taking your thumb out of one hole
To stick it in another doesn’t really accomplish anything. It is doing things for the sake of doing them.
Is there a credible scenario in which you trade Wilson? Sure – but it seems like every trade thread on here has Wilson involved, as if people want to trade him just because he might have some value.
The Giants record this season has already shown how much having a competent closer can add to the team (Can you imagine what the Giant’s record would be in save situations (26 games thus far) if we didn’t have Wilson and instead had to rely on Walker, Taschner, Yabu, Hinshaw, Etc to pitch the 9th?). Cause that is what you will get if Wilson goes. We would very easily be 20 games below .500 instead of 10.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jul 7, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
And while some will argue that it doesn't matter how many games we lose this year
A lot of us hope that it will matter next year. If having Wilson converts us 10 wins over of closer-by-committee (Which, with the available alternatives is probably conservative), then he is worth a lot more than nearly any single position player you could imagine getting for him.
In short, not all holes are created equal. IMO the closer is a much bigger hole to fill than nearly any offensive position in of itself, as the closer so directly determines so many wins/losses across a season.
And I really don’t think I have that much faith in any of the available in-house options. It would be interesting to try to predict the Save % of closer-by-committee of this bullpen based on ERA.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jul 7, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't speak for anyone else, but YES
I want to trade Wilson because he has some value. In fact, I think he might be overvalued, hence my desire to trade him.
As far as what we could get back for him, I really don’t know. That’s why I threw open the question to the Fringe in the OP.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
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