Both Present and Futures Bright for Villalona

by Anticon23 on Jul 5, 2008 12:08 AM PDT

The first two rounds in the cage, his swing looks slow and late, the balls looping lazily into right field. This is the top prospect in the Giants organization? The guy just named to the Futures team?

The third time he steps into the box, something's different. He's striding through the ball with authority, driving it into the left-center field gaps. The fourth and final time up, he forgets the gaps and goes successfully for the fences. Again and again.

This is the No. 1 prospect in the Giants organization. And don't forget, he's only 17 years old.

Sure, Angel Villalona doesn't exactly look like he's 17. Then again, nobody looks 17 when they suit up in a Minor League uniform and bat in the middle of the order on a nightly basis. Villalona's 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame has a way of masking the youthful face that still retains a little bit of its baby fat.

And then there are the home runs.

Villalona, a first baseman, has hit 10 of them this season for the Class A Augusta GreenJackets of the South Atlantic League. He's added 35 RBIs while batting .239.

"He's a very young kid in a very fast league, so we're proud of the fact that he's been able to keep his head above water and really contribute," said Augusta manager Andy Skeels. "He's been getting better each month."

Villalona has indeed showed steady improvement at the plate as the season has progressed. He got off to a rocky start in April, hitting .213 with a lone home run. A lot of that had to do with the transition from the short-season leagues -- where he spent 2007 -- to his first full year of pro ball.

"This league has been somewhat of an advanced league the last five years in terms of age, so he's playing against guys who have a lot more experience than he does and frankly are a lot older than he is," Skeels said of the Sally League's youngest player. "The things he's been able to accomplish to this point are exceptional."

One of those accomplishments was nabbing an SAL Player of the Week award in May. Villalona earned the prize by hitting .385 with three homers and eight RBIs in a six-game stretch before Memorial Day. He hit .250 for the month of May, matching that in June.

However, Villalona's placement on the Futures team is a reminder that, for the precocious 17-year-old, it isn't all about the here and now. Giants fans are already counting down to his Major League debut, which they predict to be around 2011.

Villalona has his eyes on a different appearance in a Major League park: his first-ever trip to Yankee Stadium July 13.

"I'm very happy," Villalona said through his Augusta hitting coach, Lipso Nava. "It's something I never expected, but I've been working really really hard. It's a gift from God to let me be there and actually play in Yankee Stadium."

The native of the Dominican Republic has struggled at times adjusting to life in the United States. It's already the longest he's ever been away from his family, but he knows this is the best way to support them long-term.

Nava, himself a native of Venezuela, seems to have taken the young slugger under his wing. In his first season with the GreenJackets and just two years removed from manning the hot corner for the independent Atlantic League's Newark Bears, Nava recognizes Villalona's immense potential.

"He's a special kid," Nava says, emphasizing the adjective. "He's got talent, he's got tools. He's a model for his age."

Nava has worked with Villalona recently on staying back on the ball and keeping his head still -- part of the reason his early batting-practice swings to right field look so perfunctory. The adjustment appears to be working, as Villalona is hitting over .300 in his last nine starts, including two long balls.

Skeels is quick to point out, though, how far the first baseman still has to go. And it all starts with developing a professional approach to the game.

"For most players at this level, this is their first full year or maybe their second, so there's a lot of adjustment to how to act and work like a professional," Skeels said. "Applying the things we work on in practice and in BP and in extra work, carry them over, concentrate, and apply them in the game -- that's difficult for a lot of players. And that's something he needs to continue to work on."

If his work with Nava is any indication, Villalona is showing adeptness beyond his years. But don't be surprised if the 17-year-old in him reemerges next Sunday, when he strides onto the fabled field at Yankee Stadium for the first time. Villalona smiles widely just thinking about it. Language barrier or not, the message is clear.

His future -- near and far -- is bright indeed.

-Minor League Baseball

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Our Angel is lonely.

How about we plan a big McCoven trip out to Augusta and hang out with him for a few days? Maybe he just needs a few friends!

by rotorueter on Jul 5, 2008 12:14 AM PDT 0 recs

Forget about the trip….I say we sign the kid up with Netflix and deliver him some of the hits from the “Matty Cain – I loves me the romantic comedy” category.

Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.

by PacBellBoozer on Jul 5, 2008 1:43 AM PDT up 0 recs

His birthday is next month. We can throw him a party. You know a real one, because he’ll be 18.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 5, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up 0 recs

18???

Dammit, he won’t be a prospect anymore!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 5, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up 0 recs

omg wtf why do we keep getting those old dinosaurs?

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 5, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up 0 recs

I like the way they mentioned yesterday that he was named to the Futures game, and then said he was hitting .296 at Augusta. Do they think Giants’ fans don’t follow the minors, or is that THEY don’t follow the minors??

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Jul 5, 2008 6:08 AM PDT 0 recs

.296?

by positiveuphemism on Jul 5, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think that’s his obp.

Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Jul 5, 2008 8:40 AM PDT up 0 recs

I still think they lied about his AVG to make it sound like he was doing better, so the casual Giants fan who knows of Villalona, but who doesn’t follow the minors closely will have some hope. Or it could have just been an awful typo and they posted his OBP by mistake.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 5, 2008 12:08 PM PDT 0 recs

Fooling Kruk and Kuip was probably easy, because they probably don’t even know who he is. That’s pretty much the norm around the major leagues though. They were talking to new Mets manager Jerry Manuel last night and they asked him why the Mets called up Aguila from AAA instead of Pascucci when the latter is having the better year. He replied that he never heard of Pascucci. I remember a few years ago when Brian Cashman, the GM of the Yankees was asked what he thought about Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert, (then the top rated pitchers in the Giants’ system) and he also replied that he didn’t know who they were. I continue to be amazed at how little the players, coaches, managers, and even the GM’s know when compared to most fans.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Jul 5, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm worried

I have become more worried about Angel given his high K/BB ratio. In the interview, I didn’t see any sign of attitude problems that had been mentioned to me though, so I viewed that as a positive.

And I like that they are working with Angel to stay back. But now over his last 10 games his batting average is .256, and only two of his 10 hits have been for extra bases. During that time his strikeout rate is down to “only” one strikeout per 4.9 at bats, but he has walked only once during that time.

On the season Angel has struck out 78 times with only 13 walks. That’s six strikeouts per walk, which is awful. It shows little plate discipline. It also shows a guy who may hit for a lot of power, but will likely hit for little average and not walk much. We could be looking at Pedro Feliz with perhaps twice the power.

That’s not horrible, but it’s also not nearly as much as I was hoping for from Angel. And clearly Angel’s glove is nowhere near as good as Pedro’s is, to the point where Angel will likely have to play first base, where it takes even MORE hitting just to be average for the position.

We could be looking at Ryan Howard. Not the Ryan Howard who was so impressive earlier, but the Ryan Howard who is hitting about .220 these days. And Ryan walks a whole lot more than Angel has shown any propensity to do.

The most successful power hacker has arguably been Vladimir Guerrero. Vlady was about a year and a half older than Angel when he played Low A ball. But he batted .333, which might be high for Angel even in a year and a half, and he had 30 walks to 45 strikeouts (in 421 at bats).

I think Angel has thus far shown even MORE power than Vladimir, but the K/BB ratio scares the heck out of me. In low A, Vlady - a year and a half older - struck out only once every 9.4 at bats. Angel has fanned once every 3.5 at bats, or about two and a half times as often as Vlady.

Vlady walked once every 14.0 at bats. Angel has walked once every 20.9 at bats.

I’m not sure how much difference a year and a half makes, but at the moment I see Angel as having TONS of power, but striking out a ton, walking little and hitting for a low average. In short, right now I see Angel as being closer to Pedro Feliz than to Vladimir Guerrero.

Right now Angel is looking a bit like Adam Dunn - but without the high walk total. I see Angel as having the power to easily bat cleanup - but the OBP to bat seventh or eighth. I’m thinking a .250/.300/.550 line might be possible. In other words, Pedro Feliz with a lot more power. Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn without the walks.

It’s still really early, and I’m just guessing here. I’m certainly not willing to write Angel off. He likely will become the Giants’ best power hitter since Barry Bonds. But I have to admit I was hoping for far more.

Sorry to be a bit of a downer here, although I’m certainly not predicting at this point that Angel will be a washout. Maybe in a best-case scenario he could become Jay Bruce,—and the Reds are certainly excited about the guy who entered this season as the consensus #1 prospect in baseball and is now hitting pretty well in the majors.

But Bruce can actually play center field, although he is probably a natural right fielder. Angel seems destined for the the position with the most difficult hitting requirements.

Because he doesn’t walk very much and strikes out a lot, Angel’s ceiling likely isn’t as high as I was hoping. That doesn’t make him a bad signing. It merely leaves me in the awkward position of likely having expected - or at least hoping - too much.

Hopefully Angel will soon change my position, but after his having played for nearly a year, that is where my opinion stands right now.

One ray of hope, though: Bruce is in the majors at age 20, and he really broke out at age 19. Let’s hope Angel can do the same.

by sharksrog on Jul 5, 2008 1:12 PM PDT 0 recs

Dude,

He’s 17. The majority of players he’s facing are a good 2-3 years older than he is and are more advanced. I think you should cut him a little bit more slack. Wait until he’s in AA or AAA before getting worried.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 5, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

wild

Anticon is right. Age matters more for hitteringer than for pitching prospects, by the way, and he is quite a bit younger than most in his league. Most baseball people still consider him an excellent prospect (just as before). This is, after all, just his first full pro season.

I say ‘wild’ though, because you are rushing to project him to current MLB players, and he is just far too young to do that. (his average numbers to many other top prospects at that age (like cabrera) are similar, however, villalona’s power numbers are high compared to nearly all I checked out). What we know now is basically just a confirmation of what he was reported to be when signed: very high ceiling, raw (but only as expected to be for his age), and huge power.

Have any of us here been able to see him play live a lot? (and not just read the stats)?
If so, is he struggling with certain pitches (pitch recognition), thus leading to strikeouts, or is it just a general lack of discipline, and knowledge of the strike zone?

by haverecords on Jul 5, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not giving up

I’m not giving up on Angel - merely saying I had hoped for more. I really like Adam Dunn, and that might be the comp I would use for Angel - except that Adam walks a ton. Neither appears to be a good fielder, although both run decently for big men.

I have seen only one at bat from Angel, and that on milb.tv. He doubled to right center, showing opposite field power. But as I noted at the time, he has an open stance and doesn’t stride into the ball. I have concerns about his covering the outside corner, particularly the low, outside curve ball. My guess is that a lot of his strikeouts come on that pitch.

Unless they get lots and lots of hits, I don’t like players who don’t draw walks. I think Angel will walk more than Pedro, if for no other reason than that teams will rightly fear Angel’s power more. But I’m not sure he will walk MUCH.

I realize Angel is still quite young. I think he might wind up having more power than anyone in the game, or at least being among the most powerful. But I think his flaw will be that he makes too many outs.

As I said, I’m not giving up on him. The three players I mentioned in conjunction with Angel were Pedro Feliz, Adam Dunn and Jay Bruce. We all know Pedro’s limitations, but Adam will likely hit 500 homers—and so could Bruce, who entered this season as the #1 prospect in the minor leagues and who has hit pretty decently since joining the Reds about a month ago. Bruce already has six home runs, and while I think his batting average will be lower than other believe, I think he has a very good chance at 500 career homers.

So two of the three guys I compared Angel to seem likely to hit 500 home runs. I think Angel might, as well. In fact, if I were guessing, I would probably take Angel as having the most power (although the safe guess would be Dunn, who has already - get this - done it).

The point I’m making is that I had hoped for numbers from Villalona such as .280/.350/.600. As I mentioned, he now looks more like .250/.310 (I’ll up his OBP from my original estimate, since I think he WILL be pitched around in dangerous situations.)/.550. Those are very good numbers. They’re just now what I was hoping for.

Angel has PLENTY of time to change my mind.

by sharksrog on Jul 5, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

Miguel Cabreras minor league stats

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/miguel-cabrera.shtml

Is he the next Cabrera? I don’t know, but what that link does show is that the statistics he’s puttting up this year mean absolutely NOTHING. Let him assimilate himself to the US(he’s 17 years old and away for an extended period of time for the first time in his life). Walk rate, strikeouts etc etc, none of those numbers mean anything.

by superk1ng on Jul 5, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

Really?

How does looking at Miguel Cabrera’s stats show us that Angel Villalona’s stats this season mean nothing?

I look at Miguel and see that he was four months older than Angel. I see that he made the same move up from the rookie league at age 17 to Low A ball at age 18.

I see that in doing so, Miguel’s batting average and K/BB rate stayed about the same, while thus far both have deteriorated for Angel. I see that both players struck out about the same amount in rookie ball, but that Miguel walked more often—even BEFORE Angel’s decline with the jump. I see that both players increased their power numbers, but that Angel has thus far shown more power. I see that Miguel was playing shortstop, which would seem to indicate he had more physical growth left than Angel likely has, given that Angel has already moved from third base to first.

What I see tells me that thus far Miguel seems to have held the advantage over Angel in everything except power. But since Miguel was still small enough to play shortstop, while Angel is seemingly too big even to play third, it tells me that Miguel likely had more power GROWTH ahead of him than does Angel.

As a result, I see Angel likely having more power than Miguel, but striking out a lot more and thus hitting for a much lower average. I see Angel walking far less often than Miguel and thus posting a much lower OBP.

So you see nothing, and I see something. Whether what I see is accurate, we don’t know yet. But perhaps we know that when you say “Walk rate, strikeouts etc etc, none of those numbers mean anything,” you are probably wrong.

The only way my seeing something can be worse than your seeing nothing is if what I see leads me to come to a conclusion about Angel which is worse than your conclusion that we don’t know anything.

Look at the respective numbers again. Carefully. Don’t you see some of the same things I saw? Maybe you will see something that I missed. If so, please share it with me. I’m still learning.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

Relax

Let us not forget Angel is only 17 and is playing against pitchers that are older, some quite a bit older and is holding his own. Of course we would like to see a higher average and more walks and less strikeouts. It sounds like they are working on these things and some improvement is already being shown. We all realize the Giants have not developed a decent position player in years (the current crop is showing some promise – Bowker, Lewis, Horowitz). With the changes in the front office, perhaps more emphasis will be paid on developing hitters as well as pitchers – we had better, with all the young hitting prospects recently drafted.

So, I think we need to relax and enjoy the continuing positive development of Angel.

by APGiantsFan on Jul 5, 2008 1:57 PM PDT 0 recs

This

For funsies I looked up his OPS this year. So far it’s around .700. That’s the stat most of us want to look at for him, yes? The average OPS in MLB is .750. Sure, MLB=/=SAL, but the age thing is really important to consider here. A 17 year old is definitely holding his own in a league where he’s the youngest guy there. When I spoke to Tim Alderson in San Jose earlier in the year he said Villalona is special and he expects him to succeed. The evaluation by his peers is an important factor, too.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 5, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

Another important thing to remember is that the SAL league looks like a pretty extreme pitchers league. The league OPS there is .705, which makes Villalona’s .708 OPS look a little better. The K/BB is scary, but I could still see Villalona put up something like .270/.350/.550 in majors.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Jul 5, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

We're actually pretty close

Your .270/.350/.550 really isn’t that far off my .250/.310/.550—except that you think
Angel will walk a bit more than I do. I would be happier with your numbers than mine, but they still wouldn’t be the super star numbers I was hoping for from Angel.

by sharksrog on Jul 5, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

That’s not too far from the Baseball Prospectus “peak projection” for Villalona: .282/.354/.525.

Here’s the definition for peak translation in case anybody’s interested.

by Dan from NM on Jul 6, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

That is good news.

That Alderson likes Angel is good news. They did play together for a while last season.

It’s just that when Angel’s horrible K/BB ratio - which I consider to be quite important for a minor league player - blazed its way into my consciousness, I began to become more concerned.

I just looked up Miguel Cabrera. Miguel wasn’t much older than Angel, and in his second year put up numbers that weren’t much better than Angel’s. But while Miguel didn’t show as much power, his 78/37 K/BB ratio was nearly three times better than Angel’s. Miguel didn’t strike out nearly as much, and he walked significantly more. I think that could be (and likely is) important.

I agree that Miguel is a better comparison than Vladimir Guerrero for Angel, since Miguel was closer in age to Angel by about a year. But just as Vlady had a much better K/BB ratio than Angel, so does Miguel, although not to the same extent.

I’m not predicting failure for Angel. I just don’t think he will become a Miguel or a Vlady.

by sharksrog on Jul 5, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Perhaps not holding his own

The high K/BB ratio indicate to me that Angel is NOT holding his own. His power is impressive, but I don’t remember ANY player having such a poor K/BB ratio who has become a near-super star. And at least near-super star was my expectation for Angel.

by sharksrog on Jul 5, 2008 6:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

I still think you’re asking too much out of a 17-year old that’s never played full season ball against players older than he is. Villalona and Cabrera’s isolated walk rate is practically the same at the same level. The only difference between the two is that Villalona is striking out at a much higher clip. Let’s also keep in mind that Cabrera was a full year older than Angel at that level.

I’m surprised nobody’s brought up his splits yet. Angel is hitting .202/.260/.328/.589 against RHP and .329/.375/.616/.991 against LHP. Granted, that’s 73 AB against lefties and 198 against righties, but it’s pretty clear that he smashes lefties. Like you mentioned earlier, Villalona’s open stance would make him susceptible to offspeed pitches on the outside corner against righties. I can only assume that as soon as he learns to handle those pitches, those K totals will drop.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 5, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up 0 recs

Seems right.

anticon- That sounds right, and is probably what is happening, but I wish we had more experience watching him, so we could actually say if that is what it is, or not.

shark-
I think you’re really expecting too much, too early, especially if you measuring stick is the K/BB ratio. That’s something you use more at an advanced level, or if someone has been around a while in the same league. But for someone so young? All such a ratio tells us is how polished a hitter he is, and nobody expects much polish yet. Give it a while. It is foolish for any of us to project what he might look like once he matures, as we really don’t have enough to go on yet—the statistical machinations are premature, at this point.

by haverecords on Jul 6, 2008 1:03 AM PDT up 0 recs

Why?

Why is it foolish of us to make projections for Angel Villalona? Don’t you think the Giants were doing precisely that before they decided to offer him $2.050 million to sign?

If they were making projections even before he had played organized ball, why are we wrong to make projections now that he has played parts of two seasons?

After all, they’re only projections, not limits.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 9:54 AM PDT up 0 recs

missing the point

Shark,

I do believe you are missing my point: I’m not arguing against projections as such, only that one has to be careful when doing them (if they are to be taken seriously). The younger the player (especially with high ceiling players) the less you have to go with, in terms of accuracy in projection. Though you aren’t doing anything this egregious, consider if someone says a freshmen in High School they have scene reminds them of Will Clark (say they have a similar swing, with similar benefits, and a similar intensity), and then on that basis project that player will be like will clark. Well, obviously that is too early. You no doubt have more to go one with a 17 player in A ball, but not as much as you are making out. If he’s 19 or in AA and roughly doing what he is now, your projections might fit, but as for now it is jumping the gun.

also, yes I’m sure the Giants made projections, but they didn’t do so in the manner you are doing (nobody does with young latin IFA’s). They project on the basis off noticeable abilities, and what sort of abilities those are, along with what problems exist with that player, and what the chances are that those things will be worked out. Stats are only a guide; a very helpful guide, yes, but only a guide.

by haverecords on Jul 8, 2008 1:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

Age difference

The difference in ages between Miguel Cabrera and Angel Villalona was four months, not a full year as you said. Do you feel that makes any difference?

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up 0 recs

Nope.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up 0 recs

Sorry, I should have elaborated.

It’s because he’s 17 years old.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jul 6, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up 0 recs

Wtf. The kid is 17 fucking years old. Please remember also that he just came to this country like over a year ago. That adjustment alone to move to a new country and not speak the language and being far away from his family has to be tough enough. Not to mention trying to adjust to playing against guys who are 3 to 5 years older than him on average. He has shown steady improvement each month. I really don’t see what the hell anyone has to be worried about. Funny too since Juan Guzman that ex Dodger super prospect, started off his young career as some phenom in the lower minors than just has gotten worse and worse since, over the past 2 or 3 years.

The good news is his power absolutely seems to be legit. He should only get better as he becomes more comfortable and continues to learn how to make adjustments to his game. Pablo Sandoval didn’t reach Augusta till he was 19 and his OBP was .309. Walked only 22 times, struck out 77. Not to mention he only hit 1 HR.

I think its a little ridiculous to be making judgments based on a player this young and his statistical totals. The main thing is that scouts and players and coaches etc continue to give him high praise for his overall abilities etc.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 6, 2008 2:53 AM PDT 0 recs

The org is doing good things for him by putting the supportive people around him. Moving to the States for a young ballplayer is overwhelming. We’re not just talking about a hitter and first baseman developing into a future contributor for the major league team, we’re also talking about a young man who’s growing into himself as a person, too.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 6, 2008 8:19 AM PDT up 0 recs

Very good points

You make very good points here, Baron. It is likely that Angel’s career will come to a fork in the road, and following Yogi Berra’s advice, he will take it. Hopefully he will take the high road and perform better than I am expecting. Hopefully he won’t take a road that leads him to an even lower level than my projection.

If Angel does indeed hit .250/.310/.550 over his career, he likely will make the All-Star team at least once. I merely was - and still am - hoping for more. I am hoping for David Ortiz, but fear the Giants may wind up with Adam Dunn with Pedro Feliz’s on-base ability.

Adam Dunn with Pedro Feliz’s on-base ability would be better than what they have now. It would probably be better than any Giants first baseman since Will Clark. But I still am hoping for more.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up 0 recs

Good point

Good point about Pablo Sandoval’s poor K/BB ratio at age 19. But my expectations for Angel were much higher than for Pablo. Still are, for that matter.

I’m not saying Angel is going to be a bust. I’m merely saying he doesn’t seem likely to hit for nearly the average and particularly not reach base as often as I had hoped.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up 0 recs

Joel Guzman is exactly what I’m worried about. Guzman too was a record-setting bonus baby, and his numbers in the SAL are nearly indistinguishable from Angel’s.

Guzman: .235/.263/.405, 8 homers in 217 ab, 9bb/62k
Villalona: .237/.294/.406, 10 homers in 274 ab, 14bb/78k

Guzman went on to have some good years in the minors, but he never mastered pitch selection/recognition, and at this point it’s unlikely he’ll ever have a real major-league career.

Villalona’s age doesn’t exempt him from the same honest appraisal we give to every other prospect. It’s perfectly reasonable to assess his strengths (power) and weaknesses (everything else), to figure out what he needs to work on, to speculate on his chances of reaching his ceiling. We just have to keep in mind that there’s a much greater margin for error when speculating about a player so young.

by Evan on Jul 6, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up 0 recs

Exactly. The sad thing is that Rafeal Rodriguez kid the Giants are rumored to be signing later this month has been compared to Guzman….among many other people.

by Hobbes2d on Jul 6, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

By the way

By the way, Jay Bruce made me look bad when he broke out last season. Hopefully Angel will make me look even worse. I can only tell you what I see. Sometimes (as with Tim Lincecum) I’m right. And sometimes I’m wrong.

Hopefully this will be a time when I am wrong—and not in the wrong direction.

by sharksrog on Jul 6, 2008 10:07 AM PDT 0 recs