McCovey Chronicles: Glazing your eyes over since 2005!

by Grant on Jul 28, 2008 1:02 PM PDT

The names are immortalized in the Hall of Here, Just Take This Guy. Derek Hasselhoff. Matt Blank. Ben Cox. Dusty Bergman. Ronnie Ray – all players who came back in minor deals for less-than-exciting major leaguers. If the only trade offers for Bengie Molina are just future inductees to the HOHJTTG, it’s understandable that the Giants wouldn’t be too interested. While Pablo Sandoval is tearing up the minors, it wouldn’t be fair to say that he’s being "blocked" by Molina. Sandoval still needs a little time to work on his defense and offensive approach. The Giants have a relatively productive catcher under contract for next season, and he's probably the best option for the job in the long-term (meaning next year) and short-term. That’s worth more than a C- prospect.

Randy Winn, on the other hand, is blocking Nate Schierholtz. Winn’s horrible slump has left him at .276/.341/.385. Schierholtz’s MLE suggests his current minor league numbers would translate to .273/.306/.472. The Giants would likely take a hit on defense and on-base gettin’, but Schierholtz’s power would probably allow the Giants to break even in the short-term. Even if the Giants had to eat half of Winn’s contract, they’ll still save millions on what could be a lateral move.

Rich Aurilia should be traded for a future inductee of the HOHJTTG, and a contending team should be happy to have him. Maybe the Giants get lucky and get a Travis Denker- or Kelvin Pichardo-type quasi-prospect.

Thus concludes this year’s review of the most boringest trade deadline ever. I fell asleep twice while writing that. But it did make me wonder what the Giants’ deadline strategy is. I have two possible theories:

1. They’re repeating that Molina and Winn aren’t really on the market in an effort to drive their price up, or in Winn’s case, force another team to eat his entire salary. If the price is right for Molina, they'll trade him even if they don't particularly want to. If the other teams call the Giants’ bluff on Winn, trade him for a future inductee of the HOHJTTG.

2. They believe that Molina and Winn really shouldn’t be on the market, as they’re part of the difference between a last-place team and a 110-loss catastrophe, and not just for this season. The good folks of San Francisco will grumble about the former, but they’ll flatly reject the latter.

I’m guessing the Giants are knee deep in #2. There’s probably a financial hit that comes from a bad team (the Giants the last two seasons) turning into a joke team (a team that loses 110 games), and I’d guess that the Giants are terrified that if they turned the team completely over to unproven youth, the Giants would crack 100 losses. Ticket sales would plummet even further. Winn and Molina are kind of a buffer against some sort of roster apocalypse, and that’s why the Giants aren’t too keen on trading Molina for an 8-track player so they can start Steve Holm. That would also mean the Giants are drastically overrating the difference between Winn and Schierholtz, but I think we all knew that already.

Comment starter: Do the Giants have a trade deadline plan? Is it one of the two scenarios above, or something different? Is that second scenario a little ridiculous, or is it a legitimate fear? Also, can I get you some coffee?

0 recs | Comment 157 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Blue Bottle NOLA iced

with soy milk. kthx.

Also, I fear the latter but secretly hope against hope for the former.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 1:06 PM PDT 0 recs

The Giants are most definitely knee deep in #2. I might even go with neck deep. Well said.

by saveuszito on Jul 28, 2008 1:09 PM PDT 0 recs

lots of cream...

lots of sugar.
Please.

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Jul 28, 2008 1:12 PM PDT 0 recs

im scared we are in #2..

if we do trade bengie, does pablo get a call up? who hits clean up?
if we do trade winn with nate in the olympics.. does bowker go to the OF and we bring up TI? i like this scenario, except against lefties

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Jul 28, 2008 1:13 PM PDT 0 recs

Isn’t it incredible how laughable it was that Molina was our opening day clean-up hitter and now, after the All-Star break, it turns out he was and is our best option there. And, not only that, if he leaves there’s still no one even close to matching the production of Benji Molina from the #4 spot on this team? And by incredible of course I mean… nightmarish.

by saveuszito on Jul 28, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

Exactly. Few of us doubted that Molina was our best option as a cleanup hitter, we were all just terrified by the reality.

by rotorueter on Jul 28, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

How is Rowand not a better option at cleanup than Bengie again?

by Viliphied on Jul 28, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah

I think Rowand would have put up better numbers than Bengie in the cleanup spot.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 28, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

Rowand is certainly a better all-around hitter. Bochy made it very clear at the beginning of the season, however, that he didn’t want him hitting clean-up. I’m not quite sure why. I seem to remember hearing in April that Rowand preferred hitting 5th too.

by saveuszito on Jul 28, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Actually,

Based on this year’s numbers, Rowand would actually be a better cleanup hitter. Before he was traded, Durham would have been a better cleanup hitter. With his current line, Aurilia would be a better cleanup hitter. Fred Lewis would have been by far a better cleanup hitter. In an extremely limited and flawed sample size, Travis Denker would have been a much better cleanup hitter. In an even more extremely limited and flawed sample size, Brad Hennessey would have been a better cleanup hitter.

And based on career numbers, Rowand, Winn, Durham, Aurilia, and Lewis would all be better cleanup hitters, and Dan Ortmeier would be EXACTLY as good.

Bengie Molina is not, and never has been, even the third most intelligent option to be this team’s cleanup hitter. I just don’t see how there is any way to see it any differently.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 28, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up 0 recs

Hennessey for cleanup!!

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Jul 28, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

third most intelligent at best?

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dude

Awesome. Keepin it alive.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

i hate myself for it

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

One could even argue

That against RHP, Bowker is a better clean up hitter.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

Oh wait, you’re talking about Ben

J
i Molina. Well then, yeah. That guy is just Bondsian.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 28, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

I thought that was the Molina brothers’ dog.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 28, 2008 2:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

It is. He’s like the baseball version of Air Bud.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 28, 2008 2:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

Seventh Inning Fetch!

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 28, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Vente Drip – Black and make sure that you leave about an eighth of an inch between the coffee and the rim, and make sure the hole in the lid is on the opposite side of the cup from the seam, I’m wearing a white shirt today OKAY!!! Let me know how much I have left on this card will you?

If it is #2 (coincidence?) I feel the fear is unfounded. What will turn fans away is the type of shit we had here on Saturday night!!!!! I was not in the Boulder-Head hater camp until then, but I feel that I must invest in the t-shirt now.

by toofruss on Jul 28, 2008 1:18 PM PDT 0 recs

reconvene the Lunatic Fringe

by Merope on Jul 28, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

I know your out there!

by toofruss on Jul 28, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

1 pitchfork, line of the left

torches will be handed out en route

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Reconvene? There's just been one continuous meeting since Vlad didn't sign

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 28, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

Plan? Where we're going, we don't NEED plans.

Let me see if I can do a quick mockup of the plan approaching the trade deadline:

1. Listen to all offers
2. Flatly reject any offer for Molina and/or Winn
3. If someone wants Aurilia, Tasch, etc. it’s going to be for a HOHJTTG player. Negotiations not necessary.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Jul 28, 2008 1:21 PM PDT 0 recs

It’s hard to imagine the Giants really believe any of their fans come to see Winn and/or Molina specifically, but perhaps that’s giving far too much credit to the brain trust.

Regarding ticket sales, they’re actually remarkably stable considering the team’s record, especially at home. They’re still on pace to draw just below 3 million, no? Or is that because of the deal they foisted on season ticket holders last year. Didn’t you have to buy tix for ‘08 to get ‘07 season tickets and ASG tickets? Maybe the Giants are worried that without the 50 year anniversary promotions, a roster full of youngsters, and no obligated ST-holders, they’ll only draw 1.5 million in 2009. Seems a bit alarmist of a prediction, though.

No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.

by Kitspool on Jul 28, 2008 1:22 PM PDT 0 recs

I think it’s #1 with Winn for sure, because we do have a capable replacement.

For Bengie, it’s #2. As you mention, the gap between Bengie and who we have to replace him is too wide for them to part with. I also think they consider Bengie valuable to help bring the young pitchers along.

My guess is that Winn and Aurilia are gone by the deadline, Bengie stays.

by AngelWillSaveUs on Jul 28, 2008 1:22 PM PDT 0 recs

I actually think Pablito could out-hit Benjie now

He didn’t bat an eye when going to Connecticut, and success there translated well for Bowker.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 28, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

I fear we are in #2

but I think it’s more like 1.5. It seems to me that the Giants are actually trying to move Winn but not going to move Bengie unless an absolutely ridiculous offer comes in. I don’t see either actually being moved, unless we pay a large portion of Winn’s contract because no one really wants him due to his lack of power.

As for Richie/Tash/Anyone over 30 I say HOHJTTG all the way.

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Jul 28, 2008 1:27 PM PDT 0 recs

And put Tyler Walker out with the yard waste

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'd just take him out back and put him down

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Jul 28, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Polar bears are endangered species!

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 28, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

that's a conspiracy of the liberal media

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

says your conservative media

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 28, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think it’s a hybrid of #2, that the Giants don’t believe that Winn and Molina should be on the market because they are so valuable to the Giants. In fact, I think Sabean himself is extremely high on Molina because last year he essentially called him the team MVP even though Bonds’ offensive numbers dwarfed everyone else.

I’m counting it as poor evaluation.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 1:29 PM PDT 0 recs

I found the quote

It was in the Sabes Chats on SFGiants.com

From BCB (site whorage, don’t throw rocks at me like TIMLINCECUM.COM)

Steinbeck: In your opinion, who was the Giants’ 2007 MVP?
Sabean: Bengie Molina.

Now we’re just getting absurd. I’m not sure if Brian knows this or not, but MVP stands for Most Valuable Player, not Most Likely to Eat an Entire Chicken and play crappy defense. I enjoyed Bengie’s season, it was one of the few bright spots on a bad team, but to consider him the Giants MVP is borderline crazy. Yes, Molina hit a few HRs, something that we can’t say for past Giants catchers (Matheny, etc.) but his overall approach at the plate is Felizian. Consider that Pedro Feliz actually walked almost twice as much as Molina (29 to 15 BB’s) and you’ve an idea of Molina at the dish. He swings at everything. Defensively Molina isn’t much either, this is his 3rd straight year with double-digit passed balls and his total of 16 this year tied him with Miguel Olivo for the most in the majors. MVP?

Surely Brian Sabean doesn’t undervalue Barry Bonds does he? It’s scary to think that he does. Once again Bonds was the best hitter on the Giants and especially this year it wasn’t even close. Check out the top 5 VORP scores for Giants hitters.

1. Barry Bonds 55.2
2. Randy Winn 26.4
3. Bengie Molina 14.4
4. Dave Roberts 8.6
5. Rajai Davis 7.2

When Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis crack your top 5 best hitters you should probably throw away the speed and defense mantra right now. Bonds was above and beyond the MVP of the Giants in 2007. His bat was the life preserver that kept afloat the S.S. Can’t Hit For Squat aka YOUR 2007 SF GIANTS!

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

a lock to win the AL Central!

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 28, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

Needs more animated gifs.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jul 28, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

There was a fanpost about this

How the pitching/speed/defense thing is totally the opposite of what you need at AT&T- namely, MORE offensive pop than other places, for obvious reasons. Bonds was the only real hitter that the Giants had last year, as proven by your little stat quote. This year, nada (and that includes Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand, John Bowker, etc.- these guys are all nice complimentary components, but they are not big hitters).

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 28, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think the old saying of “Pitching always wins” is misleading because position players more inherent value because they play defense (prevent runs) in addition to creating them on offense. That’s two-thirds of how runs are either created or prevented in one player.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

*have more inherent value

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 2:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think it’s more complicated than that, though. Hitting/Pitching/Defense can’t be properly valued without taking into account replacement value.

For example: the runs difference between the MLB’s best defending right-fielder and the worst is less than the runs difference between the MLB’s best starting pitcher and worst starting pitcher.

by rotorueter on Jul 28, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

The point is for resource allocation. Position players both hit and play one half of run prevention, making them more valuable than just a single pitcher. It’s the reason you don’t drop $126M on Zito. On the flipside, it means if you’re paying position players, make sure you’re paying them what they’re worth.

USSM had a neat article on it a couple of years ago, I’ll see if I can dig it up.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

I read that article back in the day, and it seemed to ignore the replacement value aspect that I just brought up (and is why I brought it up).

Again, I don’t know that I consider defense to be “one half of run prevention” in a value sense because real pitcher skills (limiting BBs, getting Ks, limiting HRs) are scarcer than the ability to play defense. You’d rather have Lincecum on the mound and an infield of Manny Ramirezes than Mark Gardner (today) on the mound with an infield of Ozzie Smiths.

by rotorueter on Jul 28, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

Also Consider

That a pitcher has more direct effect on the outcome of the game than any other single player.

If position player X has a horrible game, it likely doesn’t matter (in fact, it happens essentially every game that someone has a bad game).

If the starting pitcher has a horrible game, it virtually ensures a loss.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

Which might also have to do with the number of at bats that a pitcher is involved in over the course of a game, which is the beginning of an argument that I’ve seen the beginning of, but never bothered to think through any further.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 28, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

You and me both

I personally think the whole “position players help you every day and as such are more valuable” arguement doesn’t hold water.

I guess the question is, what would you rather have – an average team w/ 5 lincecums or an average rotation w/ 5 Pujols?

Or is that a correct comparison? equal VORP would be a good place to start.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

A team with 5 Lincecums would not be average, they’d be polytheists.

No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.

by Kitspool on Jul 28, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

VORP says

The average of the top 5 pitchers in the ML is 44.12, the average of the top 5 hitters is 56.02.

So that would, in some ways, indicate that a great position player is more valuable than a great pitcher, but I’m not sure that is the best back of the envelope analysis.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

You’re discounting defense. A pitcher prevents runs, but he doesn’t do it by himself. The defense also plays a larger part in run prevention that pitching. I’ve seen it mostly worked out as 50% run prevention (of which defense plays 25-30% of that prevention, pitching the rest) and 50% run production from your offense.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sure, the defense prevents runs

But even the best defender is only a marginal improvement over average.

and comparison relative to average is really what matters.

Really good pitchers are quiet a bit better than average, and as a result, IMO prevent more runs.

An average pitcher with a great defense will fare worse than an excellent pitcher with an average offense.

Maybe?

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not offense, defense.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 28, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

This is exactly the point I was trying to make.

by rotorueter on Jul 28, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

We're not comparing the pitcher to the offense/defense

We’re comparing a pitcher to a single offensive player. A pitcher will be directly responsible for every out he records. A hitter will get 4-6 at bats a game and then be involved in only a few plays defensively. The number of plays will, of course, go down with a strikeout pitcher on the mound.

In a single game a pitcher will undoubtedly be far and away the most important single player out there, regardless of the role defense plays. The relevant question is, is a great pitcher going to be five times more valuable (roughly) than a great hitter.

Probably not. But it’s a lot closer than your argument suggests, I’d wager. I’m not even close to starting a full-fledged examination of this issue. But one thing I do know is that the pitcher should not be compared to the defense/offense, in its entirety. And this gives him a big edge in a single game.

Only 869 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 28, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

How the pitching/speed/defense thing is totally the opposite of what you need at AT&T- namely, MORE offensive pop than other places, for obvious reasons.

I fully get and endorse the " Don’t Taylor make your team to Mays Field Argument’. If no other reason then this ball yard is not extreme enough. It almost always comes in near fair an most measurements I’v seen.

My Pet Peeve on ’08 is the acceptance ( or at least not heaping vast amounts of mocking and derision ) that this is a defensive club. It straight out is not. They are not apocalyptically bad with the glove work but that is a long ways from being a defensive club.

Vent over.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Jul 28, 2008 6:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sorry, I fell asleep while reading your post.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jul 28, 2008 1:47 PM PDT 0 recs

Me too, but I’m not sorry.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jul 28, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Benjo Stays and Randy Goes.

Hanging onto benji unless absolutely bowled over is the wise play. Pablo isnt ready this year and there still isnt any reason to believe he is going to be a fulltime catcher for us. Keeping Benji and allowing Pablo to spell him and platoon at 1st during his eventual call-up makes the most sense. Then depending on what we see, a trade in the off season.

Randy has to go. I dont particular hate Winn, but it just doesnt make sense to keep a guy who at least has a chance of being a league average power corner outfielder in AAA when we clearly need a power upgrade in the worst way. Im not sold on Nate making a solid transition, but I was also bullish on Lewis and have been proven wrong thus far. Even if we have to eat half his salary, dealing winn shouldbe the right play.

Aurilia … take care partner.

Cain is Able ...

by Norcalfan10 on Jul 28, 2008 1:50 PM PDT 0 recs

Can I play the word nerd here? Bullish means optimistic, I think you meant Bearish, meaning pessimistic.

Feel free to punch me in the face now.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

I thought he just spelled “bullshit” wrong.

Adoptive father of howtheyscored. The beatings will begin momentarily.

by Goofus on Jul 29, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up 0 recs

And I actually like the idea of keeping Molina so that he can split time with Sandoval next year. If Sandoval takes the the majors, you can move Molina at next years trading deadline. That is if he hasn’t broken down by then.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jul 28, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yes, please. This is what I want. Keep Molina, move him next year if Sandoval is ready.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jul 28, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

He’s dangerously close to imploding and forming a quantum singularity, do you really think think we can afford to have out entire clubhouse collapsed into a single point?

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 28, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up 0 recs