what you mean by ‘too cheap to Tango’- at these prices we’re definately in a ballroom with a full orchestra and a Vienna Waltz. Pendantics aside, I share your concerns and pretty much voiced the same concerns to both Andy B and Chris H three weeks ago; both assured me that negotiations remain well in hand, but it is hard for me to not start feeling slightly anxious. For me the canary in a coal mine isn’t even the top 4, it was the creative picks like Jarvis and Perez, guys with no leverage but still unsigned. On the other hand, BP has a tendency to cry wolf and has even less access and insight into the Giants’ operations than even the blogosphere does. My gut feel at this juncture? Posey is sure to be signed, the Giants knew what they were getting into there and it’s more likely a timing issue- the team isn’t going to ink a deal this far over slot until the last minute. Kieshnick and Crawford will probably both return to school and try to improve thier positions. If the Giants offer them supp money they may have a harder choice. Gillespe is a bit more of a wild card. The boy has a very high opinion of himself and his rep is taking as a starting point where he ‘should have ’ been drafted rather than where he fell to- and they have a pretty grand idea of where he should hav been drafted. He could probably help himself a bit by going back to school, but really, by how much? The Giants certainly have put together a big enough pot of cash to sign them all, but what if Gillespie is demanding top 10 pick money- isn’t that a bit much for the second coming of Billy Mueller?

I believe the market for players is changing—or returning to where it once was.

Prior to free agency, a team had to build itself from the bottom up. The players it signed - or beginning in the 50’s, drafted - provided it both with a roster and with players to trade to fill holes.

With free agency came the ability to build a team through expensive free agent signings at the big league level. Even if a team couldn’t afford to spend the big, big bucks, it provided a chance to put a finishing touch or two on the roster to add depth.

Free agency became a two-edged sword though. The demise of the Giants began not with the trade of Joe Nathan, but a year earlier when they felt they couldn’t afford to re-sign Jeff Kent, Bill Mueller, Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton, and instead traded Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez on the cheap (in more ways than one) in order to provide signing money for Edgardo Alfonzo and Ray Durham.

In recent years teams have begun re-signing their top free agents, leading to an extreme sellers’ market there. No single player has taken advantage more than Barry Zito, and few teams have been taken advantage of more than the Giants.

Thus the emphasis has gone back to where it was in the beginning—signing and developing young prospects. The Giants seem to be doing a good job of capitalizing on this new trend, and their poor records in recent years have left them in good draft position to do so.

I suspect they will wind up signing at least three of their top four draft picks, although clearly the possibility of not being able to sign any of them still exists (assuming the Giants aren’t delaying a signing announcement). But the Giants’ signing situation is merely another example of how the dynamic of player acquisition is changing. Teams are beginning to go over “slot” (which seems to me to be collusionary in nature) more and more as they realize the best “free agents” are available in the draft and from foreign countries.

Beginning with their very first pick the Giants realized they were going to have to go WELL over slot to sign their pick. And winning the Silver Spikes Award last week likely didn’t hurt Buster Posey’s bargaining position. Nor did putting on a power surge in college’s post-season.

Teams do have a bit more leverage now in that if they are unable to sign a top draftee (first round and compensatory round?), they receive the same pick in the following year’s draft. But the signing deadline has also been moved up to about 70 days after the draft, about 45 of which are already gone. The pressure is slightly less on the Giants to sign Posey and Conor Gillaspie, even though those two players will likely turn out to be their two best and quickest opportunities to improve from this year’s draft.

Some already have the Giants’ not becoming truly competitive (in a reasonable World Series shot sort of way) until 2012, which is the fifth season counting the one that is now about three-fifths over. Signing neither Posey nor Gillaspie will clearly set that timing back a year, particularly since in catcher and third base, the two play among the weakest positions in the Giants’ minor league system.

Ten million dollards or so (I’m guessing “only” nine million will eventually get the job done.) seems like a lot to pay for an unproven player such as Posey. But quite frankly I would much rather guarantee him $10 million than guarantee $126 million to Barely Zito or even $60 million for “The Gamer,” Aaron Rowand.

The dynamic of talent acquisition is changing. With their already having paid bonuses of over $2 million or so for the first four times ever (Lincecum, Villalona, Bumgarner and Rodriguez), clearly the Giants have changed with the times.

When the Giants drafted Posey and to a lesser extent Gillaspie, they demonstrated they were going to big-money players in the draft, perhaps taking advantage of the money they HAVEN’T been able to spend on free agents in recent years.

Hopefully they will be willing to spend the $15 million or more it will take to wrap up their top four draft choices. With the possible exceptions of Pablo Sandoval and Manny Burriss, the Giants presenty are lacking top prospects at catcher, third base and shortstop, nor do they have a top power threat in the outfield.

If it takes $15 million or more to change those situations, that will actually be quite cheap compared to the $200 million plus they have spent the past two winters in order to solidify only center field with their signings of Zito, Rowand and Dave Roberts.

I liked the Rowand signing at the time, since at the very least it was far less expensive per season than signing either Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter. But how many of us DIDN’T realize the Roberts signing and particularly the Zito signing were likely doomed?

The Giants thought they could replace the RBI bat of Moises Alou with the weak-hitting Roberts? They thought it was wise to give the most money EVER to a pitcher who was obviously declining?

Let’s hope they have learned better ways to spend their money and that at least three of their top four draft choices will be in the fold within the allotted 26 days. The Giants are dumb, but they’re not stupid. Are they?

I think its ridiculous that Posey could think he should get that much money. The highest bonus ever is only 7 million or so. He’s not even as good as Matt Wieters as a prospect.

Its also ridiculous that Gillaspie thinks he’s a top 15 pick or something. You would think these guys would WANT to fucking play baseball. If you were confident in yourself and your abilities wouldn’t you want to get in the minors as fast as possible so you could make the REAL money by playing in the Majors? Or that you’d actually just want to play for the love of the game. I’m all for getting what you can while you can, but some of these demands are just terribly misguided and unrealistic. Makes you wonder who the hell is advising these kids.