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Bowker or Lewis? Lewis or Bowker?

I have a question to pose.  This season the two top Giants everyday rookies, John Bowker and Freddie Lewis, have hit .274 and .273, respectively.  Lewis' career average is .283, while since all Bowker's at bats are this season, his is the same .274 as his season's average.

So my question is this:  Which player is more likely to maintain or improve his seasonal batting average, and why?

I have done some research on the matter and have some ideas, but before I get into them, I'm curious as to what others think -- and their reasons for doing so.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Bowker

His BABIP’s been a lot lower than I would expect based on his excellent line drive percentage, while Lewis has been overperforming with his BABIP. Bowker also has more power and I think he strikes out less (though that could be wrong).

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jul 17, 2008 12:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

THIS

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 17, 2008 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bowker also has more power

SLG:
Lewis: .448. Bowker: .449.

IsoSLG
Lewis: .173. Bowker: .175.

Bases/hit:
Lewis: 1.63. Bowker: 1.64.

The difference is very small.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Jul 17, 2008 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bowker has more REAL ULTIMATE POWER.

by xanthan on Jul 17, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, this may be true

As Bowker’s PA per HR = 28, while Lewis is at a shade over 60.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 17, 2008 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know speed gets mocked here, but really, Lewis’ speed has probably been the most entertaining part of this offense. It’s come in handy in so many ways, whether it be turning any single or walk into a virtual double, or being able to steal home.

by cheno on Jul 17, 2008 1:11 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

[pointing at Speed] Hey, look, everyone! It's Speed! HA HA HA HA

I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."

by Mayor of 311 on Jul 17, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A pair with upside

Lewis obviously possesses more tools, but every time Bowker comes to the plate, it seems like he’s learning something which will be valuable for his future Thumperdom, and our entertainment.

I find it hard to choose, because I like ‘em both, and I watch these two with keener interest than all the others.

But after half a season’s gestation, I’ll go with Lewis. Doesn’t Freddie take the count to the limit more often? Doesn’t he slash a lot of hits the opposite way, which means intelligently going with the location and learning a pitcher’s tendencies? I don’t know about batting average, but it seems to me Freddie will always have a more impressive OBP because he’s patient and seems to be looking for something in many of his ABs.

Bowker seems to be learning, too—but it’s a narrower major he’s specializing in: How to mash balls toward the Alley or the Cove.

by Moggeee on Jul 17, 2008 2:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A pair with upside

Hey, I have one of those.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 17, 2008 2:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your pair points up?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like a career ending injury to me. Worse than anal fissures.

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 17, 2008 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unless Howie has gravity defying breasts…but if he did I don’t think he’d ever leave the house.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn’t some guy do that intentionally for a year to win a $1MM bet?

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 17, 2008 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What, get gravity defying breasts?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 17, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe

that he’s referring to the entire package.

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not the wholesale package?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can buy them wholesale now?

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Costco or Sam’s Club for sure.

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 17, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh geez.

I got ripped off.

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 17, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow I gotta get a Costco membership. Buy in bulk!

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

im not sure freddie goes with the pitches so much as he just refuses to pull the ball.. ive seen him take inside pitches the other way. i really like the approach though

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Jul 17, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve gotta go with Bowker. I’m loving the adjustments he’s making with eery AB, and I’m also in love with how short his swing is. He seems to have easy power with that short swing, and the opposite field power is coming. Love it, love it, love it.

by tyrannoman on Jul 17, 2008 7:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Neither

Trade both for some veteran help in a contract year. A guy like Mike Cameron should do nicely…

I am of course being very, very sarcastic before you all start trying to lynch everyone’s favorite Old Navy mechanical robot.

by Rusty the Robot on Jul 17, 2008 8:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We need some Michel Tucker!

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 17, 2008 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i think Bowker will improve, but i like the fact that Lewis can draw more walks.

by giantsgirl510 on Jul 17, 2008 9:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

As other folks have said, I do like that lewis walks more

But one major area I think he can improve upon is how he approaches hitting with RISP, most especially when there are two outs.

I know folks who walk more tend to strike out, but I think w/2 outs and RISP, he might want to look a bit more towards contact

Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.

by Andy from DC on Jul 17, 2008 9:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sharksrog

Hey man, I read a while back that you were into umpiring. I am a first year umpire and just had my worst game ever! Are there any websites you could point me to to help with my mechanics and what not? Thanks for the help. Bowker is younger, is developing into a power hitter that can take a few pitches ( needs way more work in this area ). All things considered I say Bowker because he is younger and learning to play a new position, this must have some effect on his hitting right now. When Babe Bowker learns first, or gets put back into the outfield he will turn into our best power option, and possibly best offensive option.

I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!

by jbowl on Jul 17, 2008 9:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

jbowl

Thanks for your interest in umpiring. I no longer umpire, but I did so for about a dozen years. Now I am primarily a basketball referee, which I’ve been doing for 20 years.

Probably the best site I can refer you to is NASO, the National Association of Sports Offficials. They have a lot of good material on all sports and back when I was first umpiring ran an article on Dale Eidson, an East Bay umpire with two prosthetic legs. I had the pleasure of meeing Dale right before the article came out, and he gave me a heads-up. Dale had great judgement, and I saw him interfere with play due to his lack of mobility only once as a base umpire.

I think if you type “umpiring” into your browser, you will probaby find all kinds of neat stuff, and if you would like to ask any questions or just chat, feel free to e-mail me at sharksrog@aol.com.

by sharksrog on Jul 17, 2008 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lewis

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 17, 2008 9:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Blewis. Lowker.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 17, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I prefer Ortholtz

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jul 17, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

big German teamup.

Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on Jul 17, 2008 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They need to practice the Fusion Dance more.

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 17, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think their names would be better if they switched first names. I prefer Freddie Bowker and John Lewis to their real names.

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 17, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

though I guess, if we’re talking pure BA, Bowker is more likely. But I think Freddie will continue to be the better player.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 17, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe that was the question

As to the better player, I think it’s hard to say. I think it’s pretty clear that Lewis will have the better OBP numbers while Bowker will have the better slugging numbers.

I’m of the mind that we don’t need to be comparing them. We don’t need to turn this into Cain v. Lincecum 2.0 (Now with less talent!).

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 17, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Um.

Bowker is 3 years younger, so rather than maintain his BA/BABIP you would expect it to increase as he reaches his peak years. Lewis will probably not improve.

None of this invalidates BABIP / batting eye / speed analysis above, but may completely mask it.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Jul 17, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bowker.

Just because I think what we’ve seen in the first half is exactly what Freddie Lewis is: a .270-.290 hitter with good OBP and 10-16 HRs.

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Jul 17, 2008 9:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

For Batting Average

Bowker.

For many of the reasons cited above. This shouldn’t come as a surprise because of my vocal support for Bowker.

I do really like Freddie, however. I believe he will likely have better OBP most seasons but I think Bowker will likely have better slugging percentages and batting averages.

Only 878 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jul 17, 2008 10:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bowker is a really poor man's Will Clark

To Lewis’s really poor man’s Carl Crawford

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 17, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aw crap

Didn’t think that through enough. Carl Crawford really isn’t all that, and Will Clark had a much better OBP than I realized!

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jul 17, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Will Clark wasn’t just awesome because he was Will Clark. That man’s peak was as good as it gets.

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Jul 17, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn’t we do this just last week?

Billy Ripken is not a fuck face

by Karlifornia on Jul 17, 2008 1:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

God forbid McCovey Chronicles ever become repetitive!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 17, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

Except my post was better.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jul 17, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

FairweatherFan or Sharksrog? FWF or Rog?

NEW FANPOST COMING SOON

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 17, 2008 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bowker V. Lewis

I think it’s more likely that Bowker becomes a true League Average Player but I also think there’s a good chance that he’s on some kind of year and a half long tear and he returns to a more normal state. Right now he’s a real Matt Holliday type of player, the kind that doesn’t do very well in the minors and doesn’t show much in the way of tools, then all of a sudden just puts it together. I mean he’s got an LD rate of 25% going … that’s like Joe Mauer or Ichiro good.

If Bowker retains his power and line drive ability his is the kind of skill set that ages well. Lewis not so much.

Is there any explanation for what caused Bowker to suddenly come on the way he has. The video on calleaguers shows a player with poor swing speed and ok but not stellar mechanics. He’d also showed little ability to reliably drive the ball (although there is the funny story about the time he broke the scoreboard on a ball he did drive). It certainly hasn’t been done by good plate discipline. He’s among the bottom 10 percent of MLB regulars in terms of swinging at pitches outside the zone.

by Change Up on Jul 17, 2008 2:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

First

Before I get into my notes on this subject, let me point out several comments made here that I thought were really appropos.

. Bowker’s BABIP has been lower than exected, while Lewis’ has been higher than expected.

. Not only have the duo’s batting averages been almost identical (.273 and .274), their isolated power has also been extremely close at .173 and .175.

. Bowker is three years younger.

. Bowker’s line drive rate is exceptionally high.

. Bowker’s plate discipline has been very weak.

That’s a lot of good information, information that I doubt ANY of us knew in its entirety.

by sharksrog on Jul 17, 2008 6:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Lewis or Bowker?

Both Freddie Lewis and John Bowker pose concerns as far as keeping their averages up.

Freddie has hit for an amazing .363 BABIP over his career, which seems unsustainable. Bowker has a .285 BABIP, which actually seems low for as many line drives as he has hit (over 25%). Freddie doesn’t hit nearly as many line drives (19%) as John, but he is hitting a phenomenal .786 on the line drives he does hit.

Freddie hits a lot more ground balls than John, and his enjoying a .295 to .212 advantage on ground balls. Some of it is no doubt due to Freddie’s much better speed, but Freddie doesn’t have a lot of infield hits, so either he is hitting his grounders harder and/or he has been luckier at finding holes.

Freddie isn’t a big fly ball hitter, but he’s batting an impressive .270 on fly balls, compared to John’s .224. Freddie is hitting a marveluous .634 on balls hit to the outfield, so his line drives and fly balls are finding a way to get down a good deal of the time. John is hitting .596 on balls to the outfield, which is also exceptionally good—just not quite AS good.

John’s 25%+ line drive rate indicates he is hittting the ball at least as hard as Freddie—just not with as much good fortune. That would seem to bode far better for John than for Freddie. But John’s issue may be that his line drive rate is unsustainable.

Still, if John’s line drives decrease, that might well be offset with better luck on his balls in play. If fewer of Freddie’s balls find holes, I’m not sure where his improvement will come from—unless he can cut down on his strikeouts. But Freddie has already struck out as often (18) in July as in all of June, so he appears to be going the other way.

The one advantage Freddie has over John is that he has hit right up there with John even though about half as many again of his at bats have come against southpaws than John. The offset could be that Freddie will continue to see more southpaws than John, who is only 4-for-28 against them.

My guess is that when the season is over, John will own the higher batting average. But while neither has shown the ability to hit southpaws, Freddie’s slightly better results in that regard would appear to aid him toward being an everyday player, just as John’s younger age would seem to favor HIM.

Freddie clearly has the speed advantage and is also a better fielder. Even more importantly, he is much more adept at drawing walks than Bowker. With over half his strikeouts coming on called third strikes, Freddie would likely benefit from being a bit more aggressive when he gets two strikes. On the other hand, he is also prone to swinging at bad breaking balls in such situations, which also usually results in a strikeout.

John has the advantage of playing first base as well as the corners, but Freddie might be able to learn to field well enough to take advantage of his speed by playing center field, which would place him in a much less demanding position for hitting than first base is.

I think John will hit for the higher average this season, but I think it is almost too close to call as to which player will be the better player over his career. Bowker is younger, but Lewis almost has less experience.

The truth is that neither player might be good enough to play regularly for a good team. If Freddie could become a good defensive center fielder, his chances would appear to be the better. But if Freddie can’t cut down significantly on his strikeouts, the more powerful (despite this year’s almost equal figures) Bowker may become the better corner outfield candidate, albeit it likely in the less demanding left field position.

Freddie’s swing seems made for AT&T Park, in that he will likely get more triples there and probably isn’t going to hit a lot of homers anyway. Bowker’s pull hitting also appears tailored to AT&T, albeit in a different way.

If John becomes a power hitter, I think he wins out in this battle. If Freddie can become a center fielder, I believe the edge shifts to him. Otherwise I am split virtually right down the middle on the twosome. And it seems quite possible NEITHER will become a true everyday player on a good team.

Fortunately both players are reasonably versatile. Unfortunately both bat left-handed, as does the Giants’ top outfield prospect in AAA, Nate Schierholtz.

I actually like Nate slightly the best of the three—although not by as much as before the season began.

by sharksrog on Jul 17, 2008 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the McCovey Hivemind is efficient.

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Jul 17, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Both are everyday players

But they both also strike out WAY to much

Playoffs!!??

by PAWarrior on Jul 17, 2008 7:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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