John Bowker, Unlucky?
by xanthan on Jun 9, 2008 12:32 PM PDT
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PrintAfter watching Bowker square up some balls really well in the Nationals series but still hit into outs, I started to wonder if he was unlucky this year.
His LD% is at 26.4 which is an awesome rate. A hitter that hits a lot of line drives will get on base a lot because they fall for hits 75% of the time. Hitting a line drive is the best thing a hitter can do and Bowker is hitting the ball on the line a lot this year.
After looking at his LD% I checked his BABIP. His BABIP is .284, that's insanely low for what his LD% is right now. If you calculated xBABIP (expected BABIP) crudely (by adding .12 to a hitters LD%) Bowker's BABIP should be .384, or closer to what Aaron Rowand's BABIP is this year (.391)
Just some thoughts on Bowker, he's hitting the ball really well right now, the amount of line drives indicates that he should be hitting much, much better than his current line of .248/.299/.411
Hopefully the Giants keep giving him chances to start and hit because he's actually doing pretty well. His K% could be lower and his BB% could be a little higher, but he's squaring up nicely on balls.
When I get home, I'll see if I can whip up his expected slash-stats based on his xBABIP.
edit-
Here's the top 10 hitters in the NL by LD% (Min. 150 PA's)
Notice Bowker's LD% and Chipper Jones' LD%
Name Team BABI GB/FB LD%
Ryan Ludwick Cardinals 0.34 0.55 30.30%
Brian Schneider Mets 0.3 4.86 28.10%
Miguel Tejada Astros 0.32 1.36 27.20%
Gregor Blanco Braves 0.34 1.84 26.80%
Chipper Jones Braves 0.43 1.2 26.40%
John Bowker Giants 0.28 0.72 26.40%
Matt Kemp Dodgers 0.4 1.44 25.90%
Xavier Nady Pirates 0.35 1.17 25.70%
Ryan Church Mets 0.35 1.17 25.50%
Jimmy Rollins Phillies 0.29 1.52 25.50%
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That PrOPS thingamabob on the Hardball Times sez his numbers ought to be .291/.338/.496. Not bad at all.
I love watching Bowker hit. He gets a bit lost at the plate sometimes, and the k/w numbers reflect that, but when he makes contact it’s fun to watch.
Whoa, thanks a lot Evan, I had forgotten about prOPS. Where do you find it on THT site? I’m briefly looking around for it now but haven’t come upon it yet.
That prOPS line from Bowker would make him the best 1B on the Giants since JT “I’m Turning into Tedd Williams” Snow’s bizzaro season.
The visually challenged members of the McC Nation would like a word with you about your bigotry
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Jun 9, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
This is when I post my Ray Charles picture
But I’ll decline this time, out of respect. I humbly apologize to the visually impaired.
But they'd never know!
It’s not like they could see it.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
Giants must know this too...
...as they have been giving him lots of opportunities, even while Aurilia has been heating up
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Bowker
Has adjusted well (recently) to pitchers not throwing him anything even remotely inside. If he can use the Carney Lansford school of hitting (I’m really hoping he magically turns into the Leo Mazone of hitting coaches) to go opposite field and take walks, pitchers will have to start coming inside again. I do think that he’s shown that he’s a much better hot weather hitter, and maybe that is a downside to him as a Giant.
Down in Front Meat!
Hot weather hitting
Kruk on KNBR this morning brought up this same issue but applied it to the whole team. Said part of the reason they’ve won 6 in a row on the road (and generally played better there) is that lately they’ve been in some warm weather locales (DC, Arizona, even Coors when they were there recently), but when they were at home it was cool/frigid and very windy. As he said, not necessarily a good thing to be a warm-weather hitting team when you play in San Francisco.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
I saw Bowker line into that double play Sunday, I think it was first and third, one out. He kept pulling inside pitches into the stands very hard. Then the DP, a liner right to the 1Bman. Problem is, many would say he should be looking for a pitch to elevate to the outfield and get the 1 RBI. Bowker crowds the plate and has limited options on pitches inside. Don’t know how that will develop with experience.
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
He rakes it when someone throws inside on him
If I recall, every HR (aside from the Granny the other day) has been inside.
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Jun 9, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Sunday
On that last AB a couple games ago, he drew a walk on five pitches and all of them were inside. I’m not sure why the pitcher decided that was the way to pitch him. Maybe he’s going for those “designer strikes,” as Krukow calls ‘em… pitches so inside that all you can do is line them foul.
He crowds the plate some, but his swing is really quick and short to the inside and he’s hit most of his HR’s on that side of the plate. I wouldn’t try to correct him too much right now in that area. I think he’s too pull happy sometimes, but he can hit on the inside.
can i give a +1 comment that supports a comment I made previously?
Is that wrong?
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Jun 9, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinkin the same thing the last couple days
he creamed several pitches but they all went straight to an outfielder, and one to the 1st baseman yesterday. He’s a lot more on than his numbers show.
Giants must know this too...
...as they have been giving him lots of opportunities, even while Aurilia has been heating up.
All-Father Watch: 1.19 ERA, 6 saves, 0.92 WHIP, 30 Ks in 30 1/3 IP
Giants must know this too...
...as they have been giving him lots of opportunities, even while Aurilia has been heating up.
All-Father Watch: 1.19 ERA, 6 saves, 0.92 WHIP, 30 Ks in 30 1/3 IP
I am one million percent positive that the Giants have no idea what’s BABIP.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
i love statements like this
its insane to think a team’s entire front office and scouting staff as well as player development has no idea what BABIP, is but a message board on the internet is all over it.
Someone get Damon Minor's agent on the phone stat!
by fanofvanlandingham on Jun 9, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2006/03/31/the_old_fashioned_way/?page=2
’’Do I use VORP?” Colletti said, referring to one such sabermetric tool, Value Over Replacement Player. ’’I may be using it and not even know it, and if I am, it’s nobody’s business. There are a lot of different criteria in judging players. I think I use, um, esoteric qualitative mathematical review times five. That’s one of them.”
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
one thing
presumably the Giants coaches are noticing that he hits lots of line drives (good outs)... so that would an effective proxy for his LD%/BABIP.
I do think that FO/coaches in MLB (particularly the Giants) could stand a little more rigor in their rigormorole, but frankly with sample size issues over even an entire season… probably it’s just better that they watch.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
One of the biggest mistakes people often make
Is in assuming that everyone else is stupid.
I garauntee you the Giants have several people in their staff who understand sabermetrics better than anyone here. Just because they don’t value it as highly as it is valued in some places on the internet doesn’t mean that they don’t know what it is, and what the statistics it has generated mean/don’t mean.
I get as frustrated as the next guy with some of the decisions the Giants make, FO or otherwise. However, it is important to note that the source of their decisions is not lack of information – it is how they choose to interpret it.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 9, 2008 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, those several people are buried together in a windowless office while Sabean makes nerd jokes about their moms’ basements. Meanwhile, Sabean returns to the trusty Magic 8 Ball and his crusty old scouts.
To be fair, the scouts have been drafting well, so I’ll give them that.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 9, 2008 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
So maybe the scouts are "tursty" and the 8 ball "crusty"?
Second that maybe I am happier not asking. Please disregard last transmission.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on Jun 10, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree.
That is all.
http://minorgiants.wordpress.com/
Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.
However, it is important to note that the source of their decisions is not lack of information – it is how they choose to interpret it.
Isn’t that just as bad, though? I don’t know what goes on inside Giants HQ but if they constantly disregard information or interpret it the wrong way, isn’t that just as bad as being ignorant? I’m not sure what’s worse, being stupid or oblivious.
sabermetrics
is not rocket science… And even if what you say is true about SF having stat heads in the basement (which I highly doubt) – I am certainly that BOCHY and the coaching staff don’t know a t-test from a hypergeometric approximation. Managers are notorious for using stuff like LH/RH splits and “sucess vs. pitcher X” without having any idea about sample size.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
If sabermetrics was rocket-science, we’d all be pretty surprised by now that it actually landed safely on Mars instead of plummeting into the surface of the planet at a billion miles a second.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 10, 2008 3:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I was wondering if my business stats class would help me in understanding sabremetrics at all. T test? I know what those are!
I mean, I read Moneyball, I can pass the stats class, but a lot of this stuff is outright dull to me. I want to really try to understand it before I dismiss it altogether, though.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 10, 2008 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Just ask questions
That’s the best way, I’m always picking up new stuff and that’s what keeps baseball fresh for me. Learning about new ways to look at the game. I like to learn.
And Moneyball wasn’t so much about COMPUTERS AND STATS as it was about finding undervalued aspects in baseball and taking advantage of them.
Well, asking questions is one thing, but finding someone who can actually help someone understand a complex subject is another entirely. I can ask someone “so….stats?” and get a bunch of information that’s correct and insightful, but if I don’t understand what that information means it’s useless to me. Thus is the problem with me and most number-based things. I had to have the formula for run support explained to me three times before I understood it, for example.
There are many people who get these concepts, but much fewer who can actually teach someone else what those concepts mean.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 10, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
The most important thing to remember with statistics
regardless of whether or not it is baseball or some other subject is that they are generally right but can be quite often specifically wrong.
Also, it is usually pretty easy to look at statistics with a prejudiced eye and determine a prejudiced result.
In baseball, this is best summed up by the statement “watch the game”. Statistics don’t tell the whole story.
(look at the two teams all of the “statheads” picked to absolutely dominate this season. Detroit and the NYM.)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 10, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
What?
I don’t recall statheads picking either of those teams to “dominate”. In fact, I believe statheads were leading the call to temper expectations for those two teams (particularly the belief that Detroit would score 1000 runs). Besides, it’s been two months:
Also, it is usually pretty easy to look at statistics with a prejudiced eye and determine a prejudiced result.
Indeed, hopefully the irony isn’t lost on you.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
HUH?
Most “statheads” I’ve read were saying that Detroit was overrated. It was the non statheads that were talking Detroit up. Most statheads were pointing out Miguel Cabrera’s pathetic D, Dontrelle Willis’ pathetic peripherals, Magglio Ordonez being likely to regress, his season in 2007 was the result of unsustainable BABIP and unsustainable on contact numbers, and that shuffling Brandon Inge to the bench would hurt overall team D.
If you want to pick a team overrated by statheads, pick the Indians. They are the team that is often, not just this season, overrated by statheads.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Also,
it is true that you can use statistics to “prove” a preconceived notion. So? You can do this with anything really. You can do the same with scouting reports. You can do the same with rumours from club sources.
It’s not the tool that is the issue here. It’s the user of the tool.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this
but I think the Giants must know this too as they have been giving him lots of opportunities, even while Aurilia has been heating up.
Batting Average Based On Innings Pitched
It’s just a way of pretending a number makes sense, but it really doesn’t. So for example, Matt Cain’s BABIP is 4billion, John Bowker’s is .3010394, and Bengie Molina’s is a quartlespeeb.
Essentially, BABIP doesn’t really exist.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Batting Average on Balls in Play.
And it’s a relatively stable statistic (as stats go), with more predictive value than some of the more commonly known stats. Especially when interpreted in the presense of context like LD and GB/FB rates
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 10, 2008 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions
You made that up!
I think my answer sounds closer to right. =)
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
AKA
Batting Average on Balls In Play ( Shows how many balls hit actually make it to be base hits, it is generally theorized that the mean is .300, which means that for every player below that, will generally trend upward, or is/has been “unlucky”, and people above it will generally trend downward, or is/has been “lucky”. )
Given the example above, showing Rowand’s xBABIP at .391 and his actual BA being ~.330, they are saying that Bowker should be hitting somewhere closer to ~.310 or ~.320 with his .384 xBABIP, instead of the ~.250 he is currently hitting. So basically, the author is surmising that with the .284 BABIP ( which should trend higher, slightly) and his LD% the way it is, Bowker has been “unlucky” with the frequency of which his line drives have been caught / hit right at someone, and that over time, his real BA should trend AT LEAST marginally higher, think ~.270.
Uncle Sabes...How much longer til we get there?
I'm not sure you got that exactly right
Or maybe I just read you wrong?
xBABIP is generally accepted to to be ~.12 + Ld %. Bowker’s LD % of .259 suggests a BABIP of .379. I have never heard of any indication that it should be around .300. (A hitter who hits more line drives will have a higher BABIP )
The fact that his actual BABIP is .279 suggests that he has been extremely unlucky so far this season, and stands to positively regress to the mean substantially as long has he keeps the LD % up.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 10, 2008 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I have no idea what you're talking about.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
All-Father Watch: 1.19 ERA, 6 saves, 0.92 WHIP, 30 Ks in 30 1/3 IP
Stats confirming what my eyes are seeing
I’m a member of the Bowker Brigade!
Only 910 games until the end of Zito's contract
Does that make you a Bonafide Bowker Brigadier?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 10, 2008 3:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Bowker not bleaker
I think John Bowker is doing very well for a guy who was just so-so in Class A two years ago. He was rushed to the big leagues and has done at least as well as expected.
I like Nate Schierholtz better, but it is possible John could wind up being the better of the two. But I like Nate better and Freddie Lewis about as well as John.
I AM delighted to see John’s VERY high line drive rate. If he keeps hitting them, more will almost surely fall in. I just don’t expect to see him keep it up.
I AM delighted to see John’s VERY high line drive rate. If he keeps hitting them, more will almost surely fall in. I just don’t expect to see him keep it up.
Would park factors affect line drives? I’m thinking they would but Bowker had a LD% of 22% last year in AA, that’s a little above average. I think league average for line drives tends to be around 20%. But I’m not sure if AA Connecticut suppresses line drives or if I needed to do any corrections.
150 PA’s is a small-ish sample but when I watch him, he seems to hit the ball on the line a lot. That could be me having selective memory ;)
context always matters
22% is a high LD% in the Eastern League. It’s good for 3rd place in the league right now.
Thanks, wcw
I was going to go to FirstInning to check out some numbers but their site is moving really slowly. Is that where you got your number from?
Serious question this time.
So is a pitchers Line Drive rate -12% a reasonable rule of thumb for the hits that should fall in given a neutral defense over the coarse of say a season?
That would seem to the inverse of the formula to me. Or am I mistaken again?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
As I understand it
It is reasonable to take a pitchers line drive % against and add .12 to get their expected BABIP against.
Brian Wilson has a Ld % against of 12.7 % (awesome!) which gives a xBABIP of .247. His actual BABIP is .313, which suggests to me that he has been pretty unlucky.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 10, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
thank you.
Glad i did not assume the ”+” sing and asked instead.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on Jun 10, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
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