Who's the #1 prospect?

by tedfordfan on Jun 7, 2008 9:28 AM PDT Comment 32 comments

Buster Posey or Angel Villalona?

Buster Posey

Pro: He's extremely athletic, and profiles as a GG defender at a premium defensive position. He was ranked as one of the top 5 overall hitters in college this year. He profiles as perhaps a bit better than Jason Kendall in his prime. Has good plate discipline and some pop. Upside is perennial all star.

Con: His bat, while above league average, isn't going to be a cornerstone bat for a championship lineup - more of a #5 or 6 hitter than a #3 or 4. Although athletic, is raw defensively at the most demanding defensive position - has to learn how to call games and handle pitching staffs.

Angel Villalona

Pro: Bat is described as "special". Terms like "ungodly" and "immense" used to describe his power. Is putting up fairly good numbers (especially power numbers) as the youngest player in the Sally League playing against people an average of 4-5 years older than him. A true clean-up hitter. Signed w/ the Giants for $2.1M, but other teams offered more than that. Athletic for such a big kid. Profiles as Andres Galaraga in his prime. Upside is multiple all-star appearances.

Con: Limited defensively, probably to 1B and will never be a superior defender. Unknown (simply due to his age and lack of experience) if he will develop sufficient plate discipline or cut down on his K numbers sufficiently to post high averages.

Would love to get your thoughts on who should be ranked #1. Feel free to add to and/or disagree with any of the pro/con assessments above. Fire away...

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

1 recs | Comment 32 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Andres Galarraga....?

I hear he projects for even more power than Galarraga—like 40 HR power in a REAL ballpark, not 40 HR in Colorado ;)

Personally my pick would be Posey. A LOT better chance of making it big right now, just because he’s so much further along. Both have pretty high ceilings, we’re talking potentially Top 3 at their position.

GO GIANTS 2011!!!

by lmaozedong on Jun 7, 2008 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

well....

I think he profiles as Andres Galarraga in his Colorado years. A guy who can hit 40+ homers and give you pretty decent average. Plus, Galarraga did hit 44 homers in his first year with Atlanta in 1998. Unfortunately, his cancer (it think it was cancer) seemed to have sapped his power a bit. But, he WAS in his late 30’s as well.

by Squire_Boone on Jun 7, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For reference

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Andres-Galarraga.shtml

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Jason-Kendall.shtml

Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.

by tedfordfan on Jun 7, 2008 9:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Right now I’d say Posey goes #1, just because there are so many fewer questions about his future (and because that future is CLOSER), and the answers to those questions don’t have nearly as much wild variance.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 7, 2008 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For not having seen these guys very much if at all you’re making way too many assumptions with your evaluations of them. I think right now Villa is still the #1 prospect in the system based solely on his ultra high ceiling.

Someone asked a similar question in yesterday’s BA draft chat and Jim Callis said he would answer the question in Monday’s Ask BA article.

by Cainer on Jun 7, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I’m curious what Callis will say. Villalona seems to have a Lincecum-type ceiling (i.e., the sky’s the limit) as a power hitter. None of us really know what that means. With Lincecum, that translated to “Yippee Kay-Ay!”

Posey seems to have a ceiling that people are more comfortable predicting, but I wonder if that’s just because he’s a catcher? I mean, his power does seem to be a lot better than people give him credit for.

At least one of these guys will suffer some adjustment pains at some point. I doubt we’ll really have an answer to this question until a few years have passed.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Jun 7, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Callis

He said that MadBum had passed AnVil, and he’d put Posey ahead of MadBum. Interesting, and unexpected…

Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.

by tedfordfan on Jun 10, 2008 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not a scout and haven’t seen either of them beyond very grainy clips on you-tube. But I tried to compile fair assessments of each player based on publicly available comments from scouting services like BA and BP. The purpose was to generate discussion. Glad I succeeded.

Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.

by tedfordfan on Jun 7, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This, basically. I’d take it further to say I want to wait until Posey is swinging a wooden bat, catching professional pitchers, and all that.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 7, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something else to ask yourselves. If Villalona had grown up in the U.S.A. and been a 17 year old high school senior this year where would he have been taken in this years draft?

Villa + aluminum bats + kid pitchers = 600’ HR

by Cainer on Jun 7, 2008 11:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hosmer is the best comparison I can think of, and he was taken third.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Jun 7, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see that there's any doubt

Villalona would be #1 in our system no matter who(m?) we might have drafted this year. There was no one available that, imho, has the same ceiling as Angel.

So the real question is: who’s #2 in the system, assuming they all sign (and I still have my doubts about Posey signing with us)?

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Jun 7, 2008 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

you got it right

it’s “whom”

by cakes on Jun 7, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posey will sign.

And I think he instantly becomes the top prospect.

by Grant on Jun 7, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you think that, Grant?

Do you think he has a higher upside that Angel? Or that’s he’s just more likely to reach the potential that he has?

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Jun 7, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think his upside is comparable to Angel’s, but he’ll be less of an unknown quantity. Villalona’s value is entirely tied up in a projected ability to mash that we haven’t seen yet. Even if his power is as prodigious as we hope, what about his plate discipline? What about his ability to make contact? I’m optimistic, but we just don’t know yet. Posey’s defense is already solid, and his bat control and patience shouldn’t be an issue.

Maybe more simply:

Russell Martin, 2007 – 8.4 WARP
Ryan Howard, 2007 – 6.3 WARP

Wins above Replacement Player isn’t a perfect stat, but it combines offense, defense, and positional scarcity better than any other readily available stat. And it takes less to imagine Posey as Russell Martin in the near future than it does to imagine Villalona as Ryan Howard.

by Grant on Jun 7, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A multiplication problem

Determining whether Angel Villalona or Buster Posey (or even Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson) is the #1 Giants prospect is to me a multiplication problem. I believe I would rank Posey #1 because while I don’t see him ceiling as being as high as AnVil’s (or possibly even Bumgarner’s), I think his chance of reaching or approaching his ceiling is high.

I’m tempted to move Mad Bum up to #2. I think his celiing is nearly as high as AnVil’s, and I see his chances of reaching that ceiling as being better. The only thing that holds me back is that I am still a bit worried about arm trouble with Mad Bum. So I think I’ll cop out by calling it a tie for second.

No, I’m going to differentiate between the two. I think there are significant risks with the 17-year-old Villalona that cause me to move him down to #3. Mad Bum hasn’t given us the bum’s rush, but rather has made a rush toward the top of the major league pitching prospect list. Thus I’m going to sneak him into #2.

That leaves the precocious but somewhat more limited Alderson at a strong #4. Suddenly the Giants have prospects!

I’m thinking Wendell Fairley, Nick Noonan and now Conor Gillaspie make up the next tier, with Noonan the most proven, Fairley having the highest ceiling and Gillaspie perhaps the most sure thing.

Of course I forgot all about Henry Sosa, who certainly has been more ornery than so-so, and I guess I would possibly place him between Villalona and Alderson, likely closer to Alderson.

So I guess my top 10 (assuming both new guys sign) becomes:

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Angel Villalona
4. Henry Sosa
5. Tim Alderson
6. Nate Schierholtz
7. Conor Gillaspie
8. Wendell Fairley
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Nick Noonan

I think the top three guys stand out, with the next seven being reasonably close together. The best news is that the Giants finally have ten pretty darn good prospects. I can’t remember the last time that was true.

by sharksrog on Jun 7, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For me....

This would be my top 10:

1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Buster Posey
3. Angel Villalona
4. Tim Alderson
5. Nick Noonan
6. Pablo Sandoval
7. Henry Sosa
8. Conor Gillaspie
9. Kevin Pucetas
10. Andy D’Alessio

I feel like Bumgarner’s outright dominance has him situated as the #1 prospect right now, even though it would be very easy to put Posey in that spot. I’d lean to Madison’s side given that he’s putting up ridiculous numbers after a bad start to the season, whereas Posey is coming in on his college rep (even though it is equally ridiculous as well). This is a welcome debate to have! As for my #9 and #10 spots, Pucetas has proven he can dominate and I view him as the best of our second tier of pitchers in our system. He doesn’t over-power anyone, but someone with his craftiness and ability to keep his ERA and WHIP down, virtually not walk anyone and win is something that can’t be ignored. D’Alessio is that other hit machine in SJ and I can’t keep him off the list and put a guy like Fairley on the list when Fairley still has yet to prove himself. I know that Wendell could make a strong case for himself, but until then, Andy D. gets the last spot.

Just missing the cut: Daryl Maday, Ben Snyder, Wendell Fairley, Osiris Matos, Thomas Neal and Matt Downs

it's always noonan somewhere

by sectionop92 on Jun 7, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who’s Maday?

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Jun 7, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Daryl%20Maday&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453402

it's always noonan somewhere

by sectionop92 on Jun 7, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really like your top ten list, although I, like sharksrog, fear arm trouble for young Madison. And Grant, I just can’t see Posey having anywhere near the ceiling of Villalona, although I absolutely agree that Buster is much more likely to achieve his. In fact, that’s one of the chief differences between my Top 40 lists and most everyone else’s here (though Brute’s might be a bit closer to mine) – I put a greater emphasis on the likelihood of making some kind of contribution in the big leagues. I think there is NO doubt Posey will contribute in the bigs, and there is still plenty of doubt about our AnVil. But, going with the common view, Villalona is more Frank Howard than Ryan Howard, even, and it’s just so hard to ignore that. We just haven’t seen that since our fearless leader, Willie McCovey.

And thanks for the mention of Matt Downs.

Overall, wow! We actually have a legitimate Top Ten list! Unbelievable.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Jun 7, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just can’t see Posey having anywhere near the ceiling of Villalona

I think that when defense is included, the relative ceilings are right there. There’s a reason why Gary Carter is a Hall-of-Famer and Frank Howard isn’t. I’m not saying that Posey will be Gary Carter, but I think everyone is selling Posey’s best-case scenario short, especially when comparing it to that of a teenager who is a completely unknown quantity.

by Grant on Jun 7, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Rog's Top 10

I’d flip-flop Bumgarner and Villalona at 2 and 3, and I think probably I’d say both Sosa and Alderson are in the top tier group separated slightly from the second.

Sadly, I think the last time this was true was in 2003 when the Top 11 was Foppert, Ainsworth, Jerome Williams, Liriano, Linden, Bonser, Fred Lewis, Ryan Hannaman, Niekro, Threets, and Cain. An awful lot of injury flameous and a couple of fairly inexplicable headcase flameouts (Williams and Linden), bu still that was an exciting top 10 and included more Top 100 appearances for the Giants than any other season I can think of.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Jun 8, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Madison Bumgarner

by wilriv21 on Jun 7, 2008 12:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I say Angel is #1

because he is the future more so than anyone else. I think the whole “prospect” thing is about who is the one player that other people would want the most. Or something like that.

For instance, if you were to poll everyone on this board and say you only get one player, who would it be, I am fairly certain it would be Angel. If he fulfills his potential, he is a hall-of-fame type HR hitter. Posey is a (perennial) all-star.

Mine:

1- AnVil
2 – Madbum
3 – Buster

by positiveuphemism on Jun 7, 2008 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I should mention

I should mention that I am a big high-ceiling guy. I had guys rated higher than Nate Schierholtz, for instance, because even though I think there is a very high probability that Nate will become a starting-caliber big-league outfielder (In fact, I believe he already is.), I don’t see Nate as having a particularly high ceiling unless he fully achieves his stated goal of having the patience to wait for more balls he can drive—and then is successful at driving them.

I’m admittedly iffy about rating Posey above Villalona when I see Angel’s ceiling as being higher. But I guess that what it comes down to for me is that Angel is still has a risk level that is nearly as high as his ceiling. Posey, on the other hand, also has a high ceiling—but to me a far better chance of reaching or coming close to it.

I see the difference in ceilings as being far less than the difference in the respective chance of reaching that ceiling.

But, hey, I’m glad the Giants have BOTH of them (although they don’t truly have Posey yet). Big Brown didn’t win today—but the Giants might in 2012 or so.

by sharksrog on Jun 7, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs