Matt Cain
by FairweatherFan on Jun 5, 2008 6:43 PM PDT
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PrintMatt Cain is my favorite Giant, hands down. He might be my favorite baseball player.
And when Matt Cain struggles, it makes me cry. This season is not going well for Matt Cain (and when I say not well for Matt Cain, I mean pretty good for most starters in MLB). In my idle time here at work, I thought I would do a little digging and see if I could see anything that might point at WHY he is struggling this season.
I noticed two things right away. The first, less glaring of the two is that his LD% is up. For the last three years, he has been pretty consistent right around 16-17%. This year, he is sitting right at 21%. Yikes! Also, those LD's have come at the expense of GB's. His flyball rate is actually in line if not up a little from last year. That LD % projects a BABIP of ~ .330. I guess he's been a little lucky to get the .279 that he is so far this year.
So he's turned ~ 3-5% of his GB's into LD's. That would be great if he were a batter.
Secondly, and more glaringly (and hopefully flukey?) is his HR rate. HR/9 is 1.37 (last year .63, career avg .84). Holy crap! He's nearly given up as many home runs so far this season as he did in the entirety of last season. His HR/FB rate is 11.1% (up from 5.5% last year). Take away just a few of the HR he has given up and his ERA and likely W-L looks a LOT better and we would all be sitting here takling about how he was doing fine and just like we expected him to.
So what gives? Part of me really thinks the HR issue is a fluke - that hes gotten unlucky on a few flyballs and that has ended up costing him quite a few runs.
But I can't explain the LD issue. Part of me wants to beleive that Matt is using this season as extended spring training to try to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower, but that might be wishful thinking. His pitch distrobution thusfar seems about the same, altho he has thrown the slider slightly less frequently (Ironically, as that has been considered his HR pitch). And his ratio of Balls/Strikes is pretty dead nuts solid through all three years (He is even throwing slightly more strikes this year). Thing is, Players aren't hitting him any more often - it's just that when they do, it is harder.
So I guess I don't see any trend that really says "oh crap, Matt can't do X anymore -we should be worried" He is walking about one more batter per nine while striking out the same, but I have a hard time looking at that as causation for his fall from grace.
All I see is that he is giving up more line drives and a LOT more home runs, and that is really screwing the pooch despite the "peripherials" being fairly consistent.
Your thoughts?
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Possible
1) Temporary Slump/Bad Luck
2) Mechanics Problem
3) Tipping Pitches?
4) Injury
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 5, 2008 6:49 PM PDT reply actions
And if it is an injury, I want Bruce “Matt Cain should throw 140 pitches per game” Jenkins and Felipe Alou killed in a public spectacle
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 5, 2008 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
isn't that the goal regardless?
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
Jenkins predicted two years ago that Cain
because of his 3/4 delivery and hard stuff at the belt…
would give up more than his share of dispiriting home runs.
Jenkins also said that Cain is special, and to disregard the home runs as he matures.
Cain’s still a kid, people.
It’s tough not to compare him to that otherworldly child, Lincecum.
win
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 8, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh man… you’re just TRYING to grougify me, aren’t you?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 5, 2008 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Give it a month or two
The closest Sanchez has come to a full starter’s load was 125 IP in 2005.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
People talked about how amazing it was last year that Matt lost all those tough games and never let it affect him. Maybe it did. I think he’s holding back and trying to make adjustments so that he lasts longer in games, and as a result, he’s become way more hittable. His stuff just isn’t lights out anymore the way it used to be. I think he needs to go out there like he used to and just overpower people and if that means he’s gone after six innings, so be it. What he’s doing now isn’t working so well.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
This
Is secretly like I think. I think he is trying to pitch too much instead of just going out there and letting loose w/ his natural talent.
If that’s the case, and he is doing it on purpose to try to tame his talent – then I am all for it.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions
My suspicion too
I’d far rather see him go 6-7 innings, striking out 6-7 per outing than try to last a little longer by getting guys to put the ball in play earlier. I think he did this same thing last season too, trying to just get guys to hit it. By the end of the year, he was blowing guys away again. I’d rather he just knock ‘em all down than try to Kirk Rueter every game.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Too early to worry
Cain started slow each of the last two years as well and finished strong. There’s a reason they play 162 and Cain’s stats will normalize. All we are waiting for is for Cain to take that next leap forward and becoming an ace. Lincecum seems to be showing some signs (but he will definitely regress a bit as the season goes on) and we need Cain to follow suit.
Go Durham, Roberts, Aurilia, Vizquel, Winn, Lowry! The better you do, the quicker we can trade you!
His crazy high HR/FB% is a fluke, just like his crazy low HR/FB% last year.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
HR Rate
Of the 12 HRs he has given up this year, 4 were in that ridiculous white sox game where O. Cabrera backspun 2 out because the winds were blowing ridiculously. Three of those HR(crede’s also I think) would not have gone out under normal circumstances, and I would guess his HR/9 goes down to normal levels over the course of a season.
Good point
As a general aside, of the five home games I’ve attended thus far, there have been what felt to me like gale force winds at at least three of them. (It’s just been insanely windy in the Bay Area the last few weeks, but that’s another story.) So maybe Matt’s mistake pitches at home would have been harmless deep fly balls except for the conditions. And yet looking at his splits, he’s given up the same number of HRs at home and on the road. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost a full point higher than at home—probably owing to that debacle of a start in St. Louis.
So while the HR numbers might be flukey, his general struggles are not ballpark-generated.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
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