Posey Dropping Because of $$$ Demands?

by xanthan on Jun 5, 2008 6:31 AM PDT

From the excellent Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.

http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=893

As we close in on midnight, the draft is still, well, pretty much a mess, but there looks to be some direction finally with the Rays at number one overall. It’s not because they’ve made a decision on who is the best player, and it’s not because they’ve decided to go for ceiling (Tim Beckham) over certainty (Buster Posey). It’s because of money. On the final night of the draft, many decisions are made with checkbooks. Teams looking at multiple players begin to make calls to agents to gauge signability, and those discussions can help steer teams one way or the other. Late this evening, multiple sources have indicated as to Buster Posey’s draft-eve asking price, and it’s a doozy at $12 million. Right now, that looks like more than enough to make up the Rays mind, and they’ll likely be taking Tim Beckham unless that number reverses dramatically in the next 12 hours. The real question is to the reason for the number, as some believe it’s a posturing maneuver to drop Posey to a team with deeper pockets, though many feel that strategy would backfire, and somebody with a early pick will call the bluff.

$12M is absolutely ridiculously for Posey and he's surely bluffing to an extent, but this could drop him down a few slots in the draft if he sticks with his high dollar demands. I wonder if this will shift things slightly? Beckham and Alvarez will probably go 1-2, and depending on who KC picks at 3, Posey could fall to 5. The Orioles drafted a catcher last year and probably won't take another this year.

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Yeah $12 mil is not going to push me towards the selection. I was iffy on Posey to begin with.

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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2008 6:39 AM PDT reply actions

wuuuuurd

up.

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by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 5, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions

He’s probably hoping to fall to the Braves or Yankees or something.

If this causes a top 4 team that was going to take Posey to take Smoak instead, I’m gonna be sad.

by Evan on Jun 5, 2008 6:40 AM PDT reply actions

The Yankees is a looong way to drop

He might end up in the 5-10 range. I really, really doubt he’ll get close to the $12M he might want, but his price tag may have gone up.

I could see KC picking Smoak or Hosmer is Posey starts to drop.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 5, 2008 6:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Long drop is looooooooooooooooooooooooong

So, Yonder Alonso?

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2008 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions

I think I’ve heard that Alonso is asking for $7M or so. That’s a lot for a player that’s not even in the top-10 by most boards.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 5, 2008 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions

This could be bad news for us

...if, as xanthan alludes, in fact KC or Baltimore had wanted Posey but now feels they can’t afford him, and instead takes our guy, Smoak. I, personally, would still want Gordon Beckham over Posey in that case, but I really think Smoak is the best choice for us at #5.

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by Lyle on Jun 5, 2008 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions

I like Posey

..and if 2009 were going to be a great draft class, this would be a reason to take him. Offer him slot, wait for the $12M demand, then offer him slot less 10%. Let him hold out, and take pick #5-A as compensation in 2009. Plus whatever great pick this putrid team gets on its record.

The problem is that, scuttlebutt has it, 2009 is not going to be a strong class. In that case, you want to pick and sign here. While I like Posey, I don’t like him $12M worth. But the thing is, he’s not the next perennial-All-Star catcher. He’s a good player, with good athleticism, and a good bat, but you can live without. I’d pick whichever on my board is available, pay slot + 10%, and be happy.

by wcw on Jun 5, 2008 6:58 AM PDT reply actions

Isn’t there usually some sort of negotiating in full faith lawyer mumbo-jumbo that would forbid that from happening?

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by RougeGorrila on Jun 5, 2008 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Well...

... there’s a purpose for the “slot” values.

by sfgfan on Jun 5, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Gotta call BS on the $12 mil bonus. According to the outline provided by wcw, the Rays would be smart to draft him and offer him $5 mil. Then they could pull off the other shennanigans up there.

I’m still hoping for Smoak.

by tyrannoman on Jun 5, 2008 7:42 AM PDT reply actions

well, no

As noted, despite the antitrust exemption, MLB has to play slightly fair, or Congress will take it away. That’s why I suggested 10% under slot, not 30% or 50%. The #1 pick should and will get a ton of scratch. It just needn’t be usury.

by wcw on Jun 5, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

Do you know what slot is for 1/1? I wouldn’t think Bud would want it to be more that $5 mil. Offer him slot and let him walk. Interesting (and creative) way to approach the draft in a down year. H/T to you, wcw.

by tyrannoman on Jun 5, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

$12M is riciculous, especially for a player of his calibur & it’s dissapointing for us as i was hoping the Rays would take him & we’d get the trickle down effect.

It’s almost certain that the Rays & Pirates & going to take Beckham & Alvarez so it depends on what the Royals & Orioles do. I hope the Royals take Posey, but i don’t think they will & the Orioles won’t, so i’d say we’re the favourites to get him now as i see us choosing him over the other candidates. I’m still hopeful that we go for whoever’s available out of Smoak, Hosmer or Skipworth though.

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by GiantFan on Jun 5, 2008 7:57 AM PDT reply actions

BA Mock

Callis just posted his mock. He has Posey going 6 to the Marlins. Smoak to the G-Men.

by KCE on Jun 5, 2008 7:59 AM PDT reply actions

I hope he’s right, i fear he isn’t. Posey just strikes me as the kind of guy we’d be very high on, but perhaps that’s my pessamism talking.

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by GiantFan on Jun 5, 2008 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions

I honestly think we’re the only team in the top 10 that’d dish out the $12 million to sign Posey. I’m scared.

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by JT Jordan on Jun 5, 2008 8:07 AM PDT reply actions

I like posey, but I also like smoak a lot. Either way we are still going to have Zito for the next 6 years :(

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by The Thrill on Jun 5, 2008 8:18 AM PDT reply actions

Come on

Tim Lincecum got 2.26 Mil two years ago at number 10. I don’t see anyway Posey gets 12 Mil. No chance. Please draft Smoak (or baby Tex, as I tend to think of him).

by tyrannoman on Jun 5, 2008 8:20 AM PDT reply actions

But Wieters got 7M last year

You know inflation’s hitting the market

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by Roger on Jun 5, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions

The Kid got $2M even

Same as the #10 the year before, over slot by about $200K.

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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 5, 2008 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions

MLB.com

reporting Rays will take T Beck.

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by FairweatherFan on Jun 5, 2008 8:25 AM PDT reply actions

Publicity Stunt

Just like him playing all 9 positions.

IMO, he wants to be drafted by a large market team, like Boston or New York.

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by SoFa King Mike on Jun 5, 2008 8:32 AM PDT reply actions

Won’t Jonn Barr be making the call? Usually the draft is run by the scouting director. Besides, it’s not like the Giants’ don’t need a catcher of the future. Sandoval is having a nice year at San Jose, but he is repeating the level (for non hitting reasons, granted) and most “experts” consider Posey to be the safest pick in the draft. Still want Smoak, though.

by tyrannoman on Jun 5, 2008 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions