Where would we be?
Alex Rios is currently hitting .284/.338/.404 with 4 HR's and 16/21 SB'sand an OPS+ of 99
Lincecum has 109.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 114 K's and a 2.65 K/BB and an ERA+ of 178
These two play different positions, so there would also be secondary impacts, namely Fred Lewis would NOT be getting at bats because our OF would've have been WInn-Rowand-Rios (great defensive OF btw). It can easily be argued (even with Rios superior defensive ability) that Lewis has outperformed Rios this year by a decent margin.
Lewis is hitting .281/.358/.460 with an OPS+ of 116, 6 HR's and 13/18 SB's
On top of the loss in production offensively, we'd need another pitcher to take Lincecum's place, that pitcher would likely be Pat Misch (and then Correia's missed innings would be taken by a combo of Brad Hennesey and Victor Santos.
On top of that, we'd have to have signed Rios to an extension (which TOR gave him at 7 years, 70 million). That's a good deal and I have no doubt Rios will outperform that contract, but it is still money we'd need to commit to now, whereas Lincecum still has 5-6 years left and we won't be spending that kind of money during thsoe 5-6 years and could instead use it to help extend him past those years.
As bad as this team is, we could be almost 7 wins worse had we done that trade, and perhaps that's me being nice (to get the official numbers I'd have to be at my laptop to calculate the difference in wins).
Yes, it's just the midway point and Lincecum will probably have a worse second half, and it wouldn't surprise me at all for Rios to finish with better numbers than Lewis, but nonetheless, it's CLEAR that this would have been a horrible trade for the Giants.
Just for even considering it, Sabean should be fired after this year. Good drafts and all, I think that has more to do with the people around him than Sabean, can't wait to see him go