Draft predictions

by sectionop92 on Jun 3, 2008 10:54 PM PDT Comment 28 comments

I'm not one that thinks there is an overall terrible pick to be made, unless this team pulls a player from the second round out of it's draft hat for the #5 overall pick. There seems to be a surplus of good prospects to pick from that the aforementioned strategy shouldn't come into play, unless this team is copying the Bill Bidwell financial model. So since we're so close to the event in question, here are some of my thoughts about what could happen:

We take Hosmer at the #5 spot. Yeah, it goes against what is out there for what we're supposed to do...and that's the point. If this guy's power stroke and ability to play 1B or RF is all it's cracked up to be, we can't pass on him. This is the type of prospect who gives the franchise flexibility and that left-handed bomber that would have his own Countdown to McCovey Cove clickers. Alvarez, Smoak, either Beckham, Matusz, Skipworth, Alonso, Crow, Wallace, etc. would all be fine picks as well and I'd love to have them. Just something says "we f'n need this guy" when I keep reading about Hosmer.

Wouldn't be surprised if the first three players were all position players and if the ratio of hitters to pitchers for the first ten picks would be 6:4.

What does everyone else think? We got about 36 hours and some change until we're up on the dog and pony show Bungles calls the first round now.

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If Alvarez and T. Beckham are gone, then I’d want the Giants to go after either Hosmer or Smoak. Can’t decide which swing I like better, but Hosmer’s is sweet.

A big NO to G. Beckham. Do not want.

Noonan. Nooooonan!

by Giant Fan in Singapore on Jun 3, 2008 11:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

As for which player I think the Giants will pick?

Neukom’s grandkid.

Noonan. Nooooonan!

by Giant Fan in Singapore on Jun 3, 2008 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eric Hosmer

John Manuel of Baseball America says Hosmer at top of SF board.

• The Giants and first-year scouting director John Barr could have a pleasant surprise at five. They’re said to have Hosmer at the top of their board but he may not get that far. However, Beckham or Posey might, which would give the Giants the chance to draft a premium middle-of-the-diamond player.

by wilriv21 on Jun 3, 2008 11:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope that's T. Beckham, and not G. Beckham

Noonan. Nooooonan!

by Giant Fan in Singapore on Jun 3, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only Beckham mentioned was Tim. If they were referring to Gordon, they’d probably give his first name to avoid confusion.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on Jun 3, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Tim Beckham was available

I’d jump for joy. Seriously, I think that is the guy the Giants want.

by Rubber Soul on Jun 3, 2008 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Brett Lawrie

falls to us at 37 and we are awesome and smart and not xenophobic and take him!

/end fantasy :(.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 4, 2008 12:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d be happy with any one of these players at #5, in order of preference:

C Buster Posey
1B Justin Smoak
1B Eric Hosmer
SS Tim Beckham
1B Yonder Alonso

I’m scared of the Giants picking a high school hitter because of their poor history of developing high school hitting talent, otherwise Hosmer and Beckham may be ahead of Posey and Smoak.

Hosmer is ahead of Beckham because he has more power upside and the Giants have some interesting middle infielders in the system already…though obviously none of whom stack up to Beckham

Posey is ahead of Smoak because he plays a premium defensive position and the obligatory Mauer comps.

Alonso rounds out the top 5 but I think I’d rather have Matusz if it weren’t for the Giants current pitching depth.

by Keenlow on Jun 4, 2008 12:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

History or Just the Situation?

Now is it poor history or just the natural order of things?

Unless you are drafting very early in the draft (i.e. top 5 picks), the odds of selecting a good player in the first round is very poor, down to around 10% by the time the end of the round comes. In other words, you can select 10 consecutive high school talents at the back of the round, and assuming they were considered to be worthy of back round selection, odds are that you will strike out with 9 of those 10 prospects. On average, you will have one success among them in those 10 years. And by the third round, you are looking at odds of about 100 to 1 against you picking a good player. And the success rate could be even worse for high school prospects because my odds were calculated on an overall basis but Baseball Prospectus broke it down to college vs. high school (they had an intern) and found that college was the better bet than high school players.

It’s very much like baseball with hitting, you make an out 7 times every 10 ABs and you’re great.

But when you are dealing with such low odds, it takes a lot of “tries” to get an accurate read on how you are actually doing. That is, to show statistical significance that you are really lousy at picking players rather than just average. It is too soon to tell, but with Cain and Lincecum lookikng like key first round successes, Sabean looks to be above average than below, or at least average, but certainly not below, based on the odds I had found in my draft study.

Think of it this way: I assume you’ve never won the state lottery but have played it before. I assume you have a poor history of winning anything from that, but I assume you understand that the odds of winning anything in the lottery is stacked against you because of the high odds against you winning. The baseball draft is similar to that, not quite at such a grand scale in terms of odds against you winning, but certainly not even close to Mendoza Line odds for you to be successful in the draft, a Mario Mendoza average in drafting first round picks in the back of the round is very good.

Put another way: Brian Bocock’s .143 average would be very good if he were doing that drafting a prospect in the back of the first round, he would probably be the Babe Ruth of drafting if he were able to do that.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 4, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You bring up a good point however, the difference between this year and drafts of recent memory is that we are not picking at the end of the first round (or the end of the 4th), we have that top 5 pick, so this one HAS to show results and as you said “well projected” college players have at least a slightly better shot at success than “well projected” high schoolers on average. That fact coupled with the Giants failing of producing ANY high school hitters any recent memory despite their draft status makes me leery of a high school pick. Will I be upset with Hosmer or T. Beck? Absolutely not, their just not my first choices.

And yes your presumptions are right, I’ve never one the lottery (though I’ve only played once) but I have one a bit at single deck blackjack. Just like choosing your gambling poison the key to any baseball draft is increasing your odds of success! :)

by Keenlow on Jun 4, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man… remember when Grant made his anti-weenie declaration at the end of this post?

Well, we were really good right up until the VERY LAST minute. :)

Hey Grant, you just got SCOOPED! What are you going to do next?

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 4, 2008 1:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Grant will, in his shock from our draft, mail it in for another week. I feel it in my bones.

Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park

by Speedforthewin on Jun 4, 2008 6:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I do not want Tim Beckham

Sorry, I just can’t drink that KoolAid. I don’t think he’ll ever hit in the bigs. I see Royce Clayton all over again.

That said, as I indicated in Grant’s post, I think the Giants will get Justin Smoak. I would also be fine with Pedro Alvarez (but he’ll be gone), Gordon Beckham, or Buster Posey – in that order. I’m not excited by Eric Hosmer; perhaps I could be talked into it. I hope the Giants don’t pick him over Smoak. It’s time to draft for the park we play in – let’s get some righty power hitters, and righty power pitchers.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Jun 4, 2008 7:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Smoak or bust. Unless Boras’ demands for Alvarez include all the tea in China, a pony, a rocketship, and a guaranteed ML contract drop him all the way to #5, then Sabes and friends better get on the phone with Hu Jintao.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 4, 2008 7:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Would the tea have to be pre-brewed, or would bags suffice? The amount of enegry to boil the water, not to mention the water itself, could throw off my calculations.

by tyrannoman on Jun 4, 2008 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Might be sneaky on us and demand all loose leaf tea, which is pretty pricey.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 4, 2008 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shit, if that were the case to get Alvarez, I would grab few trash bags and head up and down Grant Steet, in Chinatown, and start collecting loose tea leaves.

I’ll throw in a few foo-foo diffusers from Teavanna just for the hell of it.

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Jun 4, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, but if it’s all the in China, you’re going to be gone a long time. You’ll need to pick up a sat modem to keep up with the mccoven while you’re away…

by tyrannoman on Jun 4, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs