Today’s installment of Small Sample Size Theater has been brought to you by Terrell Lowery Appliance Repair.

What’s not to like about Matt Downs? Like every other player, you won’t know how they’ll do in the big leagues until you bring them up and actually give them a chance. Just like Frandsen, he’s hit everywhere he’s been. I would be tremendously pleased if he were given a chance at the 3B job next year…or, if Kevin isn’t fully recovered, a chance at the 2B job.

He homered last night and I have to admit, I was giddy when I saw it in the boxscore.

My Adopted Son is Getting the Love ! Seriously though, I’ve been a big Matt Downs fan since his time in AZL. He produced again last year in SKV, and while his line has dropped somewhat this year, he has still been very consistent. His numbers from Alabama, AZL, and SKV are below. To see his 2008 numbers ytd , click on the his name in my sig.

Dude is patient at the plate, and ha a sweet swing. Downs stock is up!

it’s a crazy world.

My Adopted Son is Getting the Love! Seriously, I have been a big Matt Downs fan since his time in AZL. He produced again last year in SKV, and while his line has dropped somewhat this year, he has still been very consistent. His numbers from Alabama, AZL, and SKV are below. To see his 2008 numbers ytd, click on his name in my sig.

The knock I always hear is that “This guy’s too old to be a prospect". At this point, I am not sure the Giants can afford to be that picky :-) The Giants have a few young infielders in the pipeline. If Downs fills a hole for a few years, while hitting somewhere in the .280/.350/.460/.800 range I would be very happy.

I understand Eliminate Me’s “small sample size” comment, but if you look at the last three years, he has been consistent each year/each level.

If you don’t know the full story, Downs was a pitcher at an Alabama JC, transferred to UA as pitcher, played infield only in his Senior year, and was drafted in the 36th round as the 1076th overall pick.

What I like about Matt is his approach to the plate. He’s one of the few Giants prospects that seems to know what it means to wait for a pitch . Throw in the fact that he plays a premium position and his high gamer quotient, then I can see why folks is wantin’ to slap some hometown vanilla on that sucker. But here are some sobering facts, because that’s how I roll:
1. Small sample size.
2. His only have games have been played at Colorado Springs which is one of the more hitter friendly ballparks in a hitter friendly league. According to my sources, their humidor is Wilford Brimley spitting into an air vent.
3. Small sample size.

My guess is that he hits .280/.330/.460 in Fresno by the end of the year.

Guys and gals, the reason he has been doing well as he has come up the system is because he has been older than most of the pitchers he has been facing:

AZL 20.3 avg age; Downs 22; 15th OPS, 9 younger above him
NWL 21.1 avg. age; Downs 23; 5th OPS, all 4 above him are younger
CAL 22.9 avg. age; Downs 24; 14th OPS, 9 younger above him

So he is the cream of the crop for his age, so that is something, but there were a lot of younger players ahead of him in terms of OPS. He was basically 2 years older than his league for his first two seasons, one year older this season at SJ. That is a lot of difference for the lower leagues.

And just think how many rookies actually do well enough to compete for the Rookie of the Year title, maybe a handful per league.

If you assume it is two leagues at each level and that most players move up one year at at time, then roughly a handful (4-6) from each minor league (2 leagues per level for a total of maybe 8-11 altogether), then typically there are only 4-6 players in each league who make the majors and do well enough to warrant ROY voting. Downs has not ranked among the top 4-6 HITTERS (remember pitcher are players too and can be voted for the ROY) at two of the three leagues he has played at, and if you add pitchers, he presumably falls out of the top 5 at NWL, in terms of top production.

The speculative stats listed above for him would get him votes for ROY and yet he wouldn’t have been ranked high enough to get ROY votes at any level yet.

But it is not to say that he couldn’t be good and that the Giants have just been holding him back with these other leagues. Perhaps he was bored being so good and slacked off (like some good students do in school when they are bored). Playing at AAA will be a good test, but more than a week of hot hitting will tell the tale of whether he’s a good prospect or not.

But given that he’s a 2B and we don’t have a lot of good 2B prospects up high in our system, that could be why they decided to move him up faster. They could also be moving him fast because they are planning on trading Durham sooner than later and want to take a closer look at the options we have. The Giants can easily send their top management (Sabean, Tidrow) to San Jose and Fresno because they are so close to us, so jumping him to Fresno could be a sign they are seriously thinking of him in the majors when Durham goes.

Good call Grant. I am not totally unbiased of course.

I have a hard time with the age issue. Downs appears to be about the average age for most college graduates. I could be wrong. Below is a list of all 2006 Draft Picks at the same age as Downs. What am I missing ? The only one that moved through very quickly was the anomaly that is Tim Lincecum .

High on Downs.