Cain & Lincecum
by cain1rstballothof on Jun 24, 2008 10:58 AM PDT
54 comments
Through roughly 100 innings each, their stats are almost identicle, except ER's and W-L. I don't know this for sure, but I'd bet the farm Lincecum has a much better run support stat than Cain does, and the luck factor is just insanely against Matty. But everything else is pretty damn close, and that's including those couple of ugly outings from Cain factored in there. I think Cain's right now, and going to have an epic second half.
Cain's also rocking a .414 slugging pct. That's better than Durham's.
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Are their stats even remotely close? What stats are you using, exactly?
Off the top of my head, I’m gonna guess that Tim’s K’s, WHIP, and GB% are all better than Cain’s. By a lot.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Jun 24, 2008 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nope.
Their K, BB, and WHIP are all pretty close. Cain’s HR rate is what’s killing him this year, which does have to do with GB%.
by mxmob33 on Jun 24, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
I just looked up OPS against, and Cain’s (.732) is nearly 100 pts higher than Timmy’s (.635) for the season. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve still got the man-love for Matty, but giving up more than a dinger per 9 is not helping him so far this year.
by BigO on Jun 24, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should also be noted that Sanchez is actually leading them both in K/9 (just barely)
K/9
Lincecum – 9.03
Cain – 8.34
Sanchez – 9.07
BB/9
Lincecum – 3.51
Cain – 3.77
Sanchez – 4.53
H/9
Lincecum – 7.71
Cain – 8.16
Sanchez – 8.35
OBA
Lincecum – .309
Cain -.319
Sanchez – .339
SLG
Lincecum – .326
Cain -.413 (This is where the HRs have killed Cain)
Sanchez – .371
by mxmob33 on Jun 24, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m trying to find the stats for K% and BB%, does anyone know where I can find them?
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs, or you can calculate them yourself by going to their BB-Ref pages, clicking on splits for the year, and divide BB / PA. The same goes for K%.
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went to Fangraphs, but I’m only seeing K/9 and BB/9. Am I missing it? I could calculate it myself, I just assumed there was a site that had the stats already.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops, sorry. I meant First Inning, I think they have the %’s.
I usually just do them by hand, it takes a few seconds and I always seem to have a browser open on BB-Ref, best site ever.
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweet, thanks
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs has them only for hitters. I don’t know why.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jun 24, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m glad to see Matt’s BB/9 as low as it after how poorly he started the year off in that regard.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1.80
Matt has been baffling with regard to control. After averaging exactly 4.50 BB/9 through July of last season, he rebounded spectacularly with a 1.80 BB/9 in August and September.
I do think he turned a corner after giving up nine runs on April 18th. Since then his ERA has been 3.71, and his BB/9 has been just 3.04.
by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sanchez still needs to bring the walks down.
you can't block the Bocock
by oldjacket on Jun 24, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
K%
Lincecum – 24.3%
Cain – 21.8%
Sanchez – 22.9%
BB%
Lincecum – 9.4%
Cain – 9.8%
Sanchez – 11.5%
GB%
Lincecum – 45%
Cain – 32%
Sanchez – 41%
So, Timmy strikes out the most guys, walks the least, and gets the most ground balls, of the three.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still, considering the general attitudes towards Matt and Timmy on the site so far this year, it’s a bit surprising to see how close it is.
Of course, it probably wasn’t so close before Tim’s last couple outings.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cain has had a nice couple of starts in a row now, I think his FIP is something like 3.99
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does xFIP still hate him and his little dog too, though?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
since I looked it up
hahaha, in what everyone seems to think is his most disappointing season yet, he has the lowest xFIP of his career so far.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
number 3 at best
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
trade him for alex rios
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Jun 24, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’d be lucky to get a B level prospect.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 24, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, xFIP is always tough on Cain because he’s an extreme flyball pitcher that’s always kept his HR/F super low, under 7% the last two years.
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, and I will fully admit to being frustrated with Matty this year, but he really hasn’t been bad. He’s still striking guys out at an excellent rate and he’s kept his walks at acceptable levels. Really, his problem is that he gives up so many flyballs. This year looks a bit off in that regard, as his GB% the last two years has been 40% compared to his 32% this year. If that reverts back to what I assume is normal, then he should be in good shape.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and way more of the flyballs he’s given up so far have gone for HR than is normal for him. now, he might have been giving up too few before, but his HR rate is higher than average at the moment, I believe.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He’s always suppressed HR’s on flyballs, which is amazing since he has no groundball tendencies and is an extreme flyball pitcher. His biggest problem this year has been with the HR.
I’m not sure if this season is flukey or his first two seasons are.
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i fear
that it’s the latter :(
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Jun 24, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I do too, at least a little.
Check out this link. Only Dave Bush gives up more flyballs than Matt Cain. AT&T will suppress his HR’s some, but that’s a bunch of flyballs. The park has played neutral on HR’s this year.
by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know this is a “no shit” comment, but my god does Brandon Webb get a lot of goundballs. He’s destroying the field right now.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn’t been that great the past few games. *has on fantasy team * :(
by Natto on Jun 24, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also has, and boy does that suck right now.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 24, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Third-ed
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
I think the truth will lie somewhere in between. I wouldn’t expect Matt’s home run rate to continue to be as bad as it has been this season, but I also wouldn’t expect it to fall all the way back to that of his first two-plus seasons.
by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, and that explains why his xFIP is his best ever, as you mentioned above. The more I look into it, this might be his best year in the majors so far. His K% is as high as it’s ever been and his BB% is as low as it’s ever been. If his GB% and HR% were to regress a little bit, he’s probably look pretty amazing right now. Then, for shits and giggles, imagine a good defense in front of him instead of one of the worst.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
funny isn’t it? He really has improved so far this year, after a bad start.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Jun 24, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s somewhat embarrassing for me since I’ve been down on him without actually looking into the data. Just another reminder that perception does not equal reality.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 24, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is the internet
you’re not supposed to cop to honest mistakes like that.
Seriously, this comment should get some sort of award.
you can't block the Bocock
by oldjacket on Jun 24, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where Tim has excelled
Where Tim has excelled is that he is limiting batters to something like a .150 batting average with Runners In Scoring Position. Here is a stat that really surprised me. Of Tim’s 40 walks, only five (12.5%) have scored.
A previous poster pointed out how much higher Tim’s ground ball percentage is than Matt’s (which implies his fly ball percentage is also much lower). Before the season I had a gentlemen’s bet with a guy as to whether Tim or Matt would yield the fewer homers. You can guess which guy I took (because of his lower fly ball rate and being an even better pitcher than Matt), and Matt has yielded more than twice as many homers (12) as Tim’s five.
by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No surprise
Cain has done this every season: he struggles early on, something clicks mid-season, he goes on an amazing run of great starts and just dominates the other teams before fading at the end.
I think we are close to seeing what greatness can happen for the Giants when Cain and Lincecum are ON and dominating. Add to that Sanchez doing well, and we could be looking at maybe playing over .500 for a month or two.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 24, 2008 11:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But Lincecum isn't really on rightnow
His last 3ish outings haven’t been exactly stellar…
/ducks
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on Jun 24, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how DAAAAAAAAARRRREEE you!?
::insert flamethrowing Enchanter video::
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on Jun 24, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
STELLAR?
Quite.
Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on Jun 24, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on Jun 25, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s only been the last 2, really. According to the espn gamescore stat, Timmy has dropped below 50 (that you start with for calculation purposes) only these past two games. His average for the season is still 60. His K/IP is below 1 for June (27/33), but you’d figure if he was beginning to fatigue, it would have dropped some more than that. Hopefully, it’s just a little dip into mediocrity.
by BigO on Jun 24, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First outing of June
As I mentioned at the time, I was concerned by Tim’s first outing of June—one in which his line drive rate was much higher than in any other start, his ground ball to fly ball ratio was down, his walks were within one of his season’s high and his strikeouts reached a career low for a single game.
No one else seemed worried, since he yielded only one run in seven-plus innings and actually was pitching a shutout when he left the game (with runners on first and second and no outs in the eighth). But I have found that it isn’t usually wise to ignore such changes.
Tim’s next two starts were pretty good, but then came his only two non-quality starts. I felt Tim’s last start was an important one, and it wasn’t very good. One can certainly point to the long delays between innings in Tim’s last start. He also struggled somewhat in his rain-delayed “start” in his season opener against the Dodgers.
by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
over .500
i sincerely, sincerely doubt that. Pencil in Zito’s loss every 5th day, plus a Correia start, an anemic-at-best offense, and (hopefully) 1 or 2 of our actual hitters getting moved and this looks like a .400 team the rest of the way. If that.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Jun 24, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you're saying...
SECOND PLACE!!! YES!!!!
Castillo hits doubles.
by kennv on Jun 24, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Second Place?!?
That makes us buyers then too, doesn’t it!
Yippee! Quick gang, get the welcoming party ready for Ricky Ledee and whatever other hack our GM finds necessary to throw some promising young talent at.
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on Jun 24, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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