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State of the Pitching

Speaking of the rotation:  a lot of people around here were talking about how great our pitching was before the season started.  As others pointed out, we really had Lincecum, Cain, a maybe in unproven Sanchez, and a shaky pen.  Now, we're finally getting guys who are moving up from the low minors.

Next year, we are looking at Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez as being safe bets for the rotation.  We are likely to have Zito as well, unless he becomes history's highest paid mop-up man.  That leaves the following guys as possibilities for the rotation within a year or two:

Correia (RHP, 27) - decent 5th starter, but quality in the pen.  Going back to the pen would immediately improve it.
Misch (LHP, 26) - better than he has looked this year.  His WHIP is better than last year, but the HR have killed him - even a normal high HR rate would make him fine.
Lowry (LHP, 27) - can he make it back from injury?  I doubt it, but I had to list him.

Bumgarner (LHP, 18!) - see above.  The real deal, it looks like.
Sosa (RHP, 22) - quality.  Needs to be in AA at this point.
English (LHP, 23) - only Bumgarner has a better K rate.  Needs to be in AA as well.
Alderson (RHP, 19!) - pretty good K rate, ok K/BB for such a youngster.  At 19, already pushed a bit in high A.
Snyder (LHP, 22) - decent to good K rate, excellent K/BB.
Pucetas (RHP, 23) - ok K rate, good K/BB.
Martinez (RHP, 25) - a bit old, but at least in AA.  Excellent ERA but weak K rate.

Correia and Misch could be 5th starters anywhere, and Correia has already proven himself a fine reliever.  Lowry looks done, but maybe he comes back from injury and can strike guys out.  Maybe.  Probably not.  Why didn't we trade him earlier?

The remaining 7 are guys that seem to have a legitimate chance to make the majors.  Bumgarner has more than a chance - as the top 2007 draft pick, he will get a shot as a major league starter if he isn't injured.  I'm not saying that all 7 will make it.  I would be happy to see Bumgarner as a #3 or better starter and one other guy from the list being a legitimate #3 or #4 starter.  After that, maybe a swingman/#5 starter or two and those guys with the rest going into the bullpen pool, with maybe a couple making it.

To get three legitimate starters out of that group would be a haul; to get four or five that look like they could be legitimate starters out of that group into AA or AAA would be sweet trade bait.  For the guys that don't make it as starters, you have a nice pool of potential relievers that 1) keep you from having to create a waiver wire/FA bullpen, 2) provides more trade bait, and 3) possibly improves our shaky pen - not to mention having depth at AAA that beats Messenger and Munter.

If that group turns out better, then you have REAL options.  What would Cain bring in trade?  What would Sanchez bring?  What would Bumgarner or Alderson - even cheaper and under the team's control for more years - bring in a year or two?  These are guys who will bring you bats.

I think that Sosa, English, Pucetas, and Snyder all need to be pushed, though.  At 22 or 23 years of age, they aren't going to look like real prospects for long in A ball.  You can't just put any 20 year old in AA and pretend that he's a star prospect when he's overmatched (I'm looking at you, Mets and Yankees), but these guys need to be promoted a level to make them look better as trade bait.

Your thoughts?  And also, a poll!

Poll
Leaving aside Bumgarner and Alderson, which of these Giants minor-league pitchers do you think has the best chance to make it in the majors?
Henry Sosa
150 votes
Kevin Pucetas
5 votes
Jesse English
24 votes
Ben Snyder
13 votes
Adam "I'm not looking so good in AA, am I" Cowart
3 votes
Clayton "How did I not get mentioned in this entire post? Oh yeah, my stats suck" Tanner
8 votes
Joe "I'm listed under those guys?" Martinez
2 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

5 recs  |  Comment 38 comments

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Whoops

That “see above” for Bumgarner references a reply I made in the Minor Lines thread. I subsequently decided to make this post a whole new Fanpost.

So take “see above” for: Bumgarner to SJ, then possibly at the end of this year to AA, then start at AA next year, with the possibility of moving to AAA and a cup of coffee in the bigs come callup time. Then major league rotation, 2010!

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 23, 2008 5:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I see that Clayton Tanner’s relatives are voting. Or perhaps a fellow De La Salle grad? Is my cousin here?

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 23, 2008 5:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

clayton's not doing that bad...

his K numbers are still good. It’s the whip and era that need work, but even they aren’t too bad. Sosa’s far more likely to break into the majors, though.

by boonitez on Jun 23, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

JOEY MARTINEZ!!!!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 23, 2008 5:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts

Have a concern about the gap of talent between ML and the next wave of pitching talent at A ball. The organization has some fine arms unfortunately most are in “A” ball. Agree that the Giants should accelerate the development of some of their older pitchers in San Jose and move them to AA. Henry Sosa, Jesse English and Ben Snyder come to mind as the first pitchers to promote to Connecticut.

by wilriv21 on Jun 23, 2008 6:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

When we were hashing out in the three trading ( I refuse to even utter the "C" word) threads from last week I came to the same conclusion. So much so that – if played smartly – I don’t see us doing major trades for over a year. The only scenario I can see us getting a large talent upgrade via trade is if we are doing payroll relief. And even then we would have to not be committing more then say 20mil over 2 years. Maybe not even for 2 years.

This team does much more tehn that and it losses its oppurtunity to retain the what worthy help it has and or not as liekly to get a reasonible return on talent.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 23, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t Henry Sosa on a whole different level than those other guys? He was a top 100 prospect on a few lists over the winter, and though he has missed some time this year, his performance on the field has been better than ever.

by Evan on Jun 23, 2008 6:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree, and so do most of the responses to the poll. He is also a good example for promotion: dominated low A, pushed to high A where he struggled, now dominating high A, and ready for AA. That pattern might hold true for AA. If not, start him at AAA next year with an eye on the rotation.

I really want to see if he can keep his K rate as he moves up the minors and adjusts.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 23, 2008 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree. I’d like to see some of the older, more-experienced guys (Sosa, Snyder) get pushed to the upper minors.

by Dan from NM on Jun 23, 2008 9:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Snyder has the best chance to make it to the majors because he’s the most consistant, has excellent command, is a lefty and has college polish.

That being said, he’s probably no better than a #4 starter in the bigs…which is still awesome.

Bumgardner and Sosa have the most upside with their ceilings as #1 or #2 starters in the bigs but are more raw and lack consistant secondary pitches…though you wouldn’t know it from looking at the stats.

by Keenlow on Jun 23, 2008 10:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

dont you recall Correia being horrible at relieving last yr?
then resurrecting career with about 6 solid starts late?
He is not a done deal, and there are stamina issues, and control, and making it thru lineup third time. But he’s a starter. And maybe a damn good #4 or 5. If only a manager could realize that twice thru the lineup could well be the max you hope for.

adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson

by foothillsfan on Jun 23, 2008 10:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Correia was excellent as a reliever in 06 though. I think he’d be OK as either a starter or a reliever. He needs to stick to one though.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jun 23, 2008 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see relief from starting

I see relief in starting for Kevin Correia, whose biggest weakness as a reliever was his propensity for yielding the big home run at the wrong time. As a starter, he can much better survive an occasional ill-timed long ball.

by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He wasn’t horrible as a reliever. He had a 4.20 ERA with the park-adjusted league average 4.44. And as Natto says, he was a fine reliever in 2006. I don’t know how you can say he resurrected his career with 6 starts (he had 8 starts total).

I’m fine with Correia as a starter, but if you have better starters, then Correia either gets traded or goes to the pen. Them’s the breaks.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 23, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

this.

If he turns in say 4-5 more starts with just marginal improvement yet stays healthy you have to think more then a few team would be interested this year. Sure he is not a top of the Rotation guy for a contender but his still a season or so away from arbitration with a track record of success at the big league level. I am not saying I want to run him out of town. Quite the opposite. Just his is the role ( or arm) most likely to be replaceable from inside the next couple seasons.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 24, 2008 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Has he still not reached his arbitration years? He made his debut in 2003.

by Evan on Jun 24, 2008 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cot’s has him listed at 3.027 year of MLB service time.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 24, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So he should be getting arbitration at the end of this year then, right?

That’s generally not what people refer to when they say “a season away”

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 24, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

my understanding ( though it is flawed and it has been months since I reread the arbitration eligible clauses) is it usually takes 5 years. So going into next season he would have a bit over 4 years of service time. I don’t think he qualifies as a super two.

As always I will stand to corrected if some one has a better understanding of it. If I was dead sure on the exact timing I would post links and such to back it up. Maybe later time willing.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 24, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s three years, not five. Correia was arb-eligible last year, in fact. He settled before the hearing for $1.075 million.

by Evan on Jun 24, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

MMM CROW.

Or not. Thanks for keeping me honest Evan.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 25, 2008 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted Sosa but Snyder is a guy that a lot of people sleep on. He’s never been injured, throws 4 pitches, and his velocity is good enough from the left side.

I still like Cowart, too. He wont start but he could be a nice bullpen option.

I want to see English promoted and stay healthy before I get overly excited, though I’m pretty excited about what he’s been doing to this point.

by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 8:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

When Snyder is brought up, I automatically think of Pat Misch—good health, 4 pitches with good control, decent velocity, lefty—and on top of all of that, Misch was dominant at a younger age. And Pat Misch, solid though he as as a #5 pitcher, just doesn’t get me that excited.

http://minorgiants.wordpress.com/
Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Jun 24, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Pat Misch, solid though he as as a #5 pitcher, just doesn’t get me that excited.

That’s because you’re dead inside and incapable of love!

by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You say that like it’s a bad thing.

http://minorgiants.wordpress.com/
Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Jun 24, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

could go either way on Snyder

the other night in in SJ his fastball was 89-92, which is fine for a lefty, control was good, but I could see him getting ripped by more seasoned hitters. A-ball guys flailed at his slider, but better hitters will recognize it and lay off. Needs more differential b/t FB and change as well (which can probably be taught). But I wouldn’t be surprised if he stalled in AAA.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jun 24, 2008 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’m thinking he might have better secondary pitches than Misch? I’ve heard good things about his curveball. Did you see it much? I think if I remember your recap correctly, I’m not sure you mentioned it.

by xanthan on Jun 24, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i saw some curves, but I don’t recall him throwing it that often. It came in 76-78, IIRC, had good movement, and he was spotting it pretty well. But hitters seemed to pick it up early and not offer at it. Didn’t seem like a + pitch for him, at least at this stage.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jun 24, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Location

Patrick Misch has a very good curve. It has been his lack of command that has killed him this season.

by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hear you on Cowart. He’s just not going to be that tricky the third time through the lineup, but he could be a wicked ROOGY.

And for all of these guys: put a starter in the pen, and you’re often going to see a guy add a couple mph to his FB and be a solid reliever.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 24, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ROOGY

I see Adam Cowart as a right-handed one out guy. The last I looked, he had yielded 39 hits in 26 innings to left-handed batters this season in AA.

by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joseph "Joey" Martinez

This is NOT a case for Martinez as the most talented pitcher on this list. But here’s the thing: On your list he’s the highest up the organizational ladder. He obviously get’s bumped as soon as the blue chippers are ready to come up, but I’d really like to see him get a look sometime next season (maybe late this year if there’s an injury).

We discussed it a bit here. He just ended a streak of 26 scoreless innings in AA and his ERA in 15 starts is in the low 2’s. That’s a decent sample size. His time in low A and high A showed seemed to show good stuff with a k/9 over 8 last year. Granted, this season the rate is well down. He’s a college guy, so that accounts for his age to some degree.

Maybe I’m rooting for him because he’s the forgotten guy on this list, but I also think he’s the highest intriguing starting arm in the org right now. I’d rather see him get a look than any of the AAA guys. And he wouldn’t be stealing any time from the young guys because right now his arrival time is around a year ahead of theirs. We know what Misch, Henn, etc. can bring. Palmer? Ehhh… Remember: 26 scoreless innings streak. I’d like to see him up to AAA soon.

by lucecooler on Jun 24, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 24, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I totally agree

That is exactly what I’ve been saying for all these years now, that pitching will lead the way for us, and the more pitching, the better as the cream overflows the top of the cup, giving us trading pieces. And yeah, we can probably start trading some of them to get they key hitter or two we need to be competitive for the future.

In addition, it is pitching that will win for you in the playoffs consistently, not hitting, look at the Giants losing to that Jones guy for NY in 2000, we had a rocking offense and was shut down by him.

That’s what people have been missing, baseball is different from other sports where a certain dominant player can make a huge impact on any particular game: in baseball, the only player who can dominate a game is a starting pitcher. Hitters need the other hitters to hit to score, else even the best are rendered impotent. And if you have a rotation of dominating pitchers, you can run roughshod over the other teams, no matter how good an offense they got.

We are close, we are very close, particularly if Cain, Linecum, and Sanchez and continue to grow and develop, along with Wilson.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

look at the Giants losing to that Jones guy for NY in 2000

But he wasn’t actually good that year. His ERA was 5. So I don’t see how that proves that good pitching wins in the postseason.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 26, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any reason why you rate pitching so highly? I’ve read in numerous places that position players have a greater importance to wins than pitching because they affect more in-game stuff (hitting and defense).

by xanthan on Jun 26, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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