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Around SBN: Jim Irsay: We Can Make It Work With Peyton Manning

Matt Cain Love Thread

My head's about to explode. You can tell that my head is about to explode by how disjointed the rest of this fanpost is. Really, it's uncharacteristically scattered and weird. Just keep reading, you'll see. My head is about to explode. If you wait long enough, you might hear a popping sound and then see pieces of my head on the walls, on the floors, on your new Corduroy jacket. And it's not easy to get brain out of corduroy...

Long story short: This thread is reserved for Matt Cain love. The last month has seen the most bizarre, unwarranted, illogical, and ill-conceived outpouring of Matt Cain DOWNER WEENIES than I would have previously thought possible. At first it was like a dripping weenie faucet, and then suddenly there were weenies everywhere... on the walls, on the floors, on your new leather stilletos... and it's not easy to get weenie out of stilletos.

Here's the deal: Matt Cain is a very good pitcher for the Giants. Matt Cain has all the talent in the world to become a great pitcher for the Giants by the time he's 25. Matt Cain is awesome. He's by far my favorite current Giant.

Matt Cain, Matt Cain, Matt Cain, I love you. I made a sim of you* and played until you died. Your daughters were ugly, but they still got some when I told them to. There is no room in this thread for anything contradictory to Matt Cain love. He is the original linch-pin of what is going to be a Hall of Fame rotation that will bring us riches and championships beyond our wildest dreams. He is the shining star.

Bring it. Bring your love. I'm sick to death of weenieism. It's an epidemic, and the only vaccine is... well, there probably isn't one... but for one thread I can at least combat the symptoms...

*True story.

Poll
Matt Cain:
I would have his babies
18 votes
I would have his babies, Junior-style
39 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

Comment 122 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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lynch pin? linchpin? linch-pinch?

Lynch-pin can’t be right… I need to change that.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 4:51 PM PDT reply actions  

George Lynch pin

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Jun 20, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

But..

Do you think we could trade him straight up for (insert decent minor league prospect)?

by mxmob33 on Jun 20, 2008 5:02 PM PDT reply actions  

It wasn't straight up!

Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jun 20, 2008 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love Matt Cain too

But I’d rather have Alex Rios. I mean, come on guys!

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 20, 2008 5:15 PM PDT reply actions  

*wink *

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 20, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

ohmygosh

Is he winking at me? I think he is… Don’t look! Wait… look now… whatdoIdowhatdoIdo…

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jun 20, 2008 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

doidoidadoidoidoidadoiodoi.

/end inner monologue

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 20, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's been underperforming this year

but he’s still my favorite Giant. I’m really hoping he can pick it back up and be co-ace with Timmy…

by boonitez on Jun 20, 2008 5:35 PM PDT reply actions  

"he is underperforming"

I think that sets it all up. Yes Kennedy on Yanks is doing sooo much better. Hughes is as well. The fact is Cain is so damn good that a chunk of our fan base already thinks he is 29 – not 23. Spoiled so much already?

And yes i am getting spoiled between Sanchez, Cain & Tim. And I am grateful for every second of it. It fades memories of starts by Watson, The Count , Ed Whitson & Mark Portugal from my brain. And I require many more such years treatment before I live in The Eternal Sunshine of Spotless Mind .

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 21, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well he kind of is underperforming...

A 4.50ish era is a little less great than the 3.60 era he was sporting last year. I just think he should be doing better. He hasn’t been pitching like the ace he was last year. But maybe last night was the start of a good stretch for him.

by boonitez on Jun 21, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I get what your saying. And it true as far as it goes.

I just think we are a little guilty of lifting it out of context. I mean this is a young arm under 25 routinely throwing 100-110 pitches at the MLB level averaging 6+ innings a start.. We should be dancing in the freaking isles naked at this point.

I mean research, at this point, seems to point to arms under 25 needing to stay at or around 100 pitches else risk a dramatically shorter career. Granted its inconclusive research but it seems the best lead we have right now regarding the proper care and feeding of young pitchers.

And we maybe seeing a bit of Cain playing Cepeda to Tim’s McCovey. I include myself in being a bit guilty of both these things are well.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 21, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cepeda and McCovey

Tim Lincecum appears to be good enough to mention along with Hall of Famers Orlando Cepeda and Willie McCovey. Matt Cain does not appear to be so.

I see Tim’s ceiling as being top tier Hall of Fame. I see Matt’s ceiling as being an All-Star.

I think Matt is playing Felipe Alou to Tim’s Willie McCovey more than he is playing Orlando Cepeda.

The one hope I do have for Matt is that one of these hot streaks of his just stays and stays. But thus far in his career Matt has been very inconsistent. 60% quality starts is NOT great. It’s good—but not great.

Let me ask this question. We have some VERY bright minds here. Didn’t anyone else here watch Matt’s debut start in August of 2005 and have at least the TINIEST doubt that his lack of swing-through stuff might stand in the way of his becoming a true ace?

I haven’t given up on Matt - but I would trade him if someone offered an exciting package for him. I would hope Matt got on a long hot streak - and then I would hope that someone else thought he might continue that hot streak indefinitely. That they might think that the hot streak was a true indication of his pitching and that I myself could get beyond the hope that it was and have the guts to trade him.

Matt is plenty young enough to develop the consistency that could indeed set him apart. But he also has lost a mile off his fastball this season. Some of that is because he has been conscious of throwing more get-it-in fastballs when he falls behind in the count. But Tim Lincecum has done the same thing, and yet Tim’s average fastball is slightly faster than last season.

What I am saying is that when we watch Matt, we might be watching the beginning of what is almost always an inevitable decline in a pitcher’s arm. With Tim, even though he is three and a half months older than Matt, we don’t yet seem to be seeing said decline.

I’m not trying to put Matt down. He’s a fine pitcher, and I just LOVE his attitude and competitiveness. He seems like a VERY nice young man. But I think it is important to look at players as objectively as possible.

Virtually everyone here thinks I am biases toward Tim Lincecum—and it definitely true I just LOVE the kid. But is there anyone else out there who has said they didn’t like Tim’s first and fourth starts this month? I’m certainly not sounding an alarm, but objectively I think it is important to realize Tim’s strikeout, walk, line drive and ground ball numbers weren’t very good in those two starts. Nor should we overlook that his good game against the Nationals was accomplished against a very depleted lineup (although I was quite impressed that Tim battled the heat and humidity, even though it sapped him to the point where he had a hard time keeping food down the next day).

My point is that I believe it is important that we examine everything we can gets our hands on - which with the internet is an incredible amount - so that when we make our judgments, they are as accurate as we can possibly make them. Less possibility for disappointment that way.

I felt Tim’s start agains Washington was a very important outing for him. I feel the same way about tomorrow’s start. LUCK can cause a questionable outing or two. But the higher the sample, the less luck tends to be involved.

Tim has had an INCREDIBLE season. He would be a big star with an ERA a full run higher than it is. But I would like to see him pitching as close to this level as he can for as long as he can.

I have predicted Tim would become a top tier Hall of Famer. Clearly my expectations for him are quite high.

My expectations for Matt are also high. Just not nearly as high as for Tim.

Clearly I would like to be right about Tim and have Matt give me a fabulous surprise to the upside. Let’s root for both to happen.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

well writen as always Sharkrog.

I brought up the Baby Bull and Stretch because it is the last time (I can think of) were the Giants had two highly young talented players vying for what seemed to be the same spot. There was also a camp that one of the two had to eventually go if only to filling gaps in the team. There does seem to be a parallel here.

I no way was I saying either Tim or Matt was H.O.F. guys – yet. But then I am a small Hall kind of guy who sees no shame in the Hall of Very Good but it does not belong in Cooperstown.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 22, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

In terms

In terms of your idea of two really good young players vying for essentially the same position, I like the comparison of Tim and Matt to Mac and Peruchin.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Last night

Last night wasn’t the start of a good stretch for Matt Cain. June 9th was.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not a weenie, am I?

Because if so, I renounce it right now. I am not a weenie. I love Matt Cain. He’s awesome.

Ahem.

I still think it might be prudent to trade him.

Ahem.

Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jun 20, 2008 6:24 PM PDT reply actions  

I knew it!

I am a weenie! I can tell by the awkward silence and shuffling of feet and excuses to be elsewhere.

Only 898 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jun 20, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

You and I have VERY different definitions of what a #3 ML Starter is.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

he’s 23 years old and he has a 115 career ERA+

he’s been meh so far this year but that is far from third starter material.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 20, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I always am

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 20, 2008 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

ok, ill shut up for a few days then on this subject

i want Cain to do well – just disappointed, maybe the expectations i heard were out of line for him…

by slojoe on Jun 20, 2008 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I actually have a list of everyone who has made comments about Matt Cain that I find objectionable and I now judge everything they say.

Well, not really because I’m too lazy to do all that work. But I would do it if that were not the case.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 20, 2008 6:32 PM PDT reply actions  

I love Matt Cain, I could only afford one jersey and his is the one I chose. I would have his babies, I’ve been doing research…I watched “junior” like 8 times…then my eyes started to blead…but I think it was worth it.

I love Matty Cain

by Keenlow on Jun 20, 2008 7:21 PM PDT reply actions  

I love Matt Cain. I still concede he will be better than Lincecum over the long haul.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 20, 2008 7:44 PM PDT reply actions  

On what?

On what do you base your opinion that Matt will be better than Tim over the long haul?

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Just a hunch

I think once Cain finds that consistency that he will be one of the best pitchers in the league for 10-15 years. He reminds me a lot of Josh Beckett when Beckett was with the Marlins. Beckett had some trouble staying healthy (blisters) and had troubles with consistency, but there were always flashes he was going to figure it out and has now. Granted he still is prone to giving up a few too many HR’s. But most quality power pitchers have this problem, ie Johan Santana.

There’s been nothing shown to me so far to make me think Cain won’t be a dominant starter in this league. He has the whole package.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 21, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but so does Lincecum, and he’s already put it together.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but Lincecum’s a pretty awful benchmark to use for anybody not named Lincecum. We know that Lincecum is pretty much God on Wheels when it comes to pitching talent combined with youthful development. There are probably lottery level chances of anybody else doing what Lincecum is doing at his age… You can’t use that as a standard to live by. It’s impossibly high.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 21, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Clearly, comparing almost anyone to Lincecum is really unfair. I was mostly responding to this point and the ensuing replies:

I love Matt Cain. I still concede he will be better than Lincecum over the long haul.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did I say he’d get worse?

by Hobbes2d on Jun 21, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was implied
I love Matt Cain. I still concede he will be better than Lincecum over the long haul.
There’s been nothing shown to me so far to make me think Cain won’t be a dominant starter in this league. He has the whole package.

Lincecum is already a dominant starter in the league and currently one of the favorites for the Cy Young. So either you’re projecting insanely lofty heights for Cain, or Lincecum has to regress.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lincecum will likely regress, he won’t keep up his current pace over the long haul. To assume so would be projecting lofty heights. ;)

by Hobbes2d on Jun 21, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, certainly a 2.21 ERA isn’t easily sustainable, but with his underlying stats you’re looking at him regressing to somewhere around a 3.00 ERA.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

I expect

Cain to be around 3.00 as well.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 22, 2008 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nothing to base that on

I would LOVE to see Matt’s ERA around 3.00—and I do think it is possible. But what in the world have you seen that makes you expect it?

Keep in mind that Matt got his BB/9 down to an incredible (for him) 1.80 and yet his ERA at 2.96 was merely in the range of which you are speaking.

If Matt needs to have his BB/9 below two in order to post a 3.00 ERA, it isn’t likely to happen.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

What makes me expect it? The fact that Cain is a 23 year old pitcher with pretty decent command when his mechanics are going right. When he flies open he tends to get a little wild. In about a year to 2 years, I fully expect him to cut his walk rate down, as I expect out of Lincecum. Both are too good, and have very good work ethics, that I expect each will cut down on those problem areas. Less walks = more innings, and often makes for easier innings, hence less runs allowed which in turn means lower ERA.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 22, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Inconsistency and lack of swing-through stuff

The only two things that cause me to believe that Matt Cain won’t become a dominant starter in the NL are his inconsistency and his lack of ace-like swing-through stuff.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh

Oh, and perhaps control.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

What?

Lack of swing-through stuff? Your joking right?

Yes he’s inconsistent (what young pitcher isn’t?, trust me Lincecum will have his struggles this year too) and his control often is pretty good, he does go through stretches where it is a problem however. But once he gets more consistency on his control, and uses his off-speed pitches more effectively (he’s already done more of this, this season) he will be a dominant starter in the NL. His numbers really aren’t that different from Lincecum’s this year. And despite his record he was one of the best starters in the league last year. I really have no doubts about both of them being top 10 starters in the league for a long time. Barring injuries of course.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 22, 2008 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

I just don't see it

I just don’t see Matt’s being consistently among the top 10 starters in the NL. Just in the NL West, I think Tim, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley will have better careers. Perhaps Kevin Lowe, Brad (Bad) Penny and Aaron Cook, as well.

Oh, and Randy Johnson would seem to have the potential to have a better career if he is able to reach his ceiling. :)

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Webb and Peavy most likely. Kershaw no. Bills no. Derek Lowe no, Penny is done, Cook no haha.

Consistent top 10 NL starters in the next 5 years (barring injury):

Zambrano, Cain, Lincecum, Hamels, Sheets, Webb, Peavy, Haren, Billingsley, and Santana.

And yes I left out Volquez.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 22, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Swing-through stuff

I must say I am impressed with the 14 swing-throughs Matt generated Friday night. That would be over 20% of his strikes, which isn’t bad at all.

But over the course of his career to date, Matt has yielded too many foul balls, which slightly limits his strikeouts and causes him to throw too many pitches per inning.

Matt gets more swing-throughs that the average pitcher—but not as many as the average ace.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Cain is awesome. In the top 10 last year for fastest average fastballs and ERA.

by Dan from NM on Jun 20, 2008 8:22 PM PDT reply actions  

“fastest average fastballs”?!?

Congrats, you’ve found a “stat” that makes ERA and Wins look legitimate!

Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.

by PacBellBoozer on Jun 21, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Slower

Matt’s fastball is down about one mph this year.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Which is on purpose if you believe what is being said about him this year.

by paboperfecto on Jun 21, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps

As I mentioned earlier, perhaps Matt’s fastball is slower on purpose due to more get-it-in fastballs. But Tim Lincecum is also throwing more get-it-in fastballs, and his speed is still slightly higher than last season.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Cain Love Thread = Matt Cain getting run support. It’s just science.

by Evan on Jun 20, 2008 8:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Kind of like the ending to movie Elf.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Cain is my favorite Giant

He & Lincecum are sorta 1a and 1b, but Cain is 1a ‘cuz he was here first and I love his game. Unfortunately, he’s been unlucky to be on a team that can’t score and has had a shitty-ass bullpen blow a lot of games for him. That said, he doesn’t give up and he will be a consistent dominant pitcher in this league before too long. Just watch. He’s a winner. If the Giants trade him, I’ll quit watching baseball.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 20, 2008 9:30 PM PDT reply actions  

How poorly does he have to do before we stop blaming the bullpen and run support?

by cheno on Jun 20, 2008 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

How about when he actually pitches poorly?

Only 898 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jun 20, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

That would be a start.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

What does this even mean? If he loses twenty games with a sub-2 ERA, by this logic we still have to question his skill. It’s absurd. And not in a whacky, lovable, absurdist way.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

he has been inconsistent

he doesn’t always lose (or not win) because of the run support or bullpen, but a big subjective criticism of him, including what I’ve read on this website, is that he is not a “winner” and that’s just a bunch of BS and that’s primarily what I’m responding to. The reason he doesn’t have more “wins” is because of the bullpen and offense, but my point here was that he doesn’t give up and still goes out there and gives it his all. A lot of young pitchers might get discouraged by that type of record, but from I can tell, he hasn’t. He’s only 23 years old (24 on Oct. 1) and as a young pitcher, he’s doing pretty well, despite his inconsistency. Once he harnesses his control, he’ll dominate this league.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 21, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure

Matt’s control was AMAZING last August and September. After walking 4.50 batters per nine innings through the end of July, Matt walked just 1.80 per nine those last two months. And his numbers were quite good:

2.96 ERA
7.20 H/9
0.77 HR/9
1.80 BB/9
8.61 K/9

But I would hope for even more from Matt with that kind of control. Tim Lincecum has put up better numbers than those this season to date (2 1/2 months) with a walk rate nearly twice that high.

I think Matt can become a very good pitcher. But I doubt he will consistently dominate the league.

I would like to be wrong about that.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Inconsistency

At his best, Matt has been right up there with Tim. It is just that he has been surprisingly inconsistent for a guy who seems so solid.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

But he hasn’t been surprisingly inconsistent. He’s been characteristically inconsistent. This is the nature of young pitchers. I can’t blame him for not being different from 99.99% of every other talented pitcher at his age.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 21, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would settle

I would settle for his being different from “just” 95% of other talented pitches his age.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

well, his peripherals haven't improved much since he came up

..but he’s 23. And lately he appears to be finding the @#$%!-you-hit-this mojo we all thought he had. Because there are not a lot of 21-year-olds who so much as survive the majors. And yes, some of them flame out, but the other ones turn into The Pedro.

And if you have forgotten The Pedro.. holy hannah. That would be nice.

by wcw on Jun 20, 2008 10:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Pedro

Pedro was already beginning to become dominant by the time he was Matt’s age. He was striking out more than Matt ever has and had much better control.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Are the babies a packaged deal? I love Cain and all but no babies, please.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 20, 2008 11:02 PM PDT reply actions  

You could volunteer a surrogate to act in the place of your baby-having love.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

it’s funny but the massive amount of success lincecum’s had and the love he’s gotten from these parts has just made me appreciate cain more. don’t get me wrong—i love timmy. but it just feels like since he’s showed up it’s been “oh my god, he has “warts.” he’s a short right handed pitcher, who is still teh awes0mest.” while i too really love watching lincecum, really appreciate the ridiculous stats he’s put up, and am quite fond of the fact that he’s standing some traditional scouting “wisdom” on its head in doing so, i think this causes some to lose appreciation for cain. I mean a big right hander. phhhhh…. who needs that when you can have a short right hander. just because we’ve come to love the guy who breaks the mold doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be excited about a 23 year old who looks to have all the makings of the traditional power arm, ace righty.

so, yeah, go cain.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Jun 20, 2008 11:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Sorry

I have been feeling sorry for Matt. He seems like such a great guy, and this season he has struggled while Tim Lincecum has had his predicted breakout season to date.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cain's struggles vs Lincecum's Breakout

In nearly the same amount of innings (Cain 100/Linecum 98)

Ks: Lincecum 95 vs Cain 93.
BBs: Lincecum 38 vs Cain 42.
Hits: Lincecum 82 vs Cain 91.
WHIP: Lincecum 1.23 vs Cain 1.33

The difference in their eras is largely a product of Cain’s HR rate being out of line. Point being, even with Cain “struggling” this year, the difference between the two isn’t nearly as big as you make it out to be. And Cain is still younger.

by mxmob33 on Jun 21, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree to an extent

I agree with you to an extent. I don’t think Tim has pitched QUITE as well as his 2.21 ERA would indicate. Nor do I think Matt has pitched quite as badly as his 4.31 ERA shows. Still, Tim’s ERA is barely half what Matt’s is.

If we take another half run onto Tim’s ERA and take half a run off Matt’s, Tim’s ERA would STILL be over a run better than Matt’s.

You are right about Matt’s biggest problem this season (aside perhaps from control) has been the high number of homers he has yielded. But for a fly ball pitcher such as Matt is, that was rather predictable. Matt’s HR/fly ball rate had been unsustainably low.

Over at John Sickels’ board, www.minorleagueball.com, there is a pitching coach with the screen name of “Husker Bob.” He might even be from Nebraska. :) Bob seems to be a very good pitching coach and likely knows a WHOLE lot more about pitching than I do.

But before the season Bob and I made a little “bet.” Bob felt Matt Cain would give up fewer home runs because he felt Tim’s lack of control/command would cause him to give up more. I felt Tim would give up fewer homers because he is more of a ground ball pitcher—and I feel he is a better pitcher overall. Despite the two homers Tim yielded in his last start, Matt has given up more than twice as many so far this season (12 to 5).

My point is that Matt is likely to give up more homers than Tim because he throws more fly balls than Tim does. I believe Tim had yielded only one homer in over a year on off-speed stuff—until he gave up BOTH homers to Marcus Thames on off-speed pitches he left up. Ironically, the curve ball Marcus hit for his first homer had more movement than any other pitch Tim threw all night. But Marcus showed with it what can happen when one leaves a pitch up to a hot hitter.

I would agree with you that there isn’t as much difference between Tim and Matt as their ERA’s this season show. But here is something you shouldn’t overlook: Tim has thrown 79% quality starts in his career; Matt has thrown just 60%.

I don’t see Tim as being much better than Matt when they each throw quality starts. I predicted her last April that Matt was more likely than Tim to throw a no-hitter IMO. Tim probably is a bit better in non-quality starts. But the main difference is that Matt is nearly twice as likely (40% of the time) to throw a non-quality start as has been Tim (21%).

When they are good, both are really, really good. Tim has demonstrated thus far that he is good more often.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just glad...

...that I can now wear my Cain shirt without fear. It was on a losing streak, but since I was wearing it today it is now a lucky shirt.

All-Father Watch: 1.11 ERA, 6 saves, 0.90 WHIP, 34 Ks in 32 1/3 IP

by EliminateMe on Jun 21, 2008 12:09 AM PDT reply actions  

Matt Cain invented the internet so that people could talk about him.

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jun 21, 2008 12:27 AM PDT reply actions  

Matt Cain shot a man in Reno just to watch him die.

Adopted Giant: Randy Winn.

by Punch Rockgroin on Jun 21, 2008 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

And then after that he shot him again just to watch him come back to life.

And it worked.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 21, 2008 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

I am developing confidence in Cain again

I expect to win every time Timmy starts and usually when Dirty starts. I expect perfect games every time Zito starts and am bored by the 5th starters starts. Cain I have decided are exciting starts like Dirty’s. This is a good thing.

by positiveuphemism on Jun 21, 2008 7:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Why I love Cain

He is amazingly level-headed and poised for a 23 year-old who has just about the worst luck imaginable.

He’s just up there, like, “Well, shit. Guess I’ll just keep pitching.”

Like that picture of him sitting alone at the press table while all the reporters congregate around someone else (I can’t remember who).

He’s just like, “Well, shit. Guess I’ll just hang out.”

Love, love, LOVE MATT FREAKING CAIN.

Bengie: Like an Aurilia kidney stone, slow-moving and tough to get out.

by juanboy on Jun 21, 2008 9:53 AM PDT reply actions  

I think it was Mark Sweeney.

which… lol.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 21, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

But he was dealing greenies!!

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 21, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Which was why everybody was at his table. Limited supplies… everything must go!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 21, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Adversity

Matt Cain seems to remain strong in the face of adversity, but his pitching has actually been quite inconsistent.

That said, I’m expecting a fairly long run of good pitching from him now and am truly hoping he has finally overcome his inconsistency demons and is back on track for the stud we thought he could become.

Not that he’s been bad. He most certainly hasn’t. Inconsistent, yes. Bad, no. But he just hasn’t become the dominant #1-type starter we had hoped for.

Did anyone else get a premonition this could be the case in his very first major league start when he showed a lack of ace-type ability to get swing-throughs?

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Speaking of swing-thrus

Is there a stat anywhere that shows how many he gets per start?

by positiveuphemism on Jun 21, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I will try

That is a good question, oh euphemistic one. I will see what I can find. Right now I need to yield the computer in a few minutes.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

it did seem like he was getting a fair amount of swingthroughs yesterday. I get frustrated by how often his pitches get fouled off, so hopefully this is a sign of things to come (then again, it was the Royals)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 21, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

i couldn't read past

inconsistency demons. That’s a great visual.

oh, and uh, Matt Cain Rules.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 21, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

on great visuals read in the last handful of days.

I was reading over on on the M’s Blog and someone dropped ” continued sacrifice to The Chaos Gods Futility and Pain” or some such like. I know they were talking about differnt players ( Vidro & Sexson) but damned if I did not know exactly were another alter to the same gods currently exists and is well tended.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 23, 2008 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I <3 Cain

Proud new parent of Mr. Buster Posey... you know, if he signs and stuff.

by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 21, 2008 12:33 PM PDT reply actions  

If you want some Matt Cain love

check out the blog: Raising Matt Cain
I’m bias because I contribute to the site, but we frickin’ worship Matty there…

"Father" of Ramon Corona : Get 15 TB in one game and I'll adopt you too!

by Section30 on Jun 21, 2008 1:19 PM PDT reply actions  

False idols

Repent and follow the true savior Tim Lincecum.

In all non-seriousness though, Matty is a fantastic Peter to Timmy’s Jesus. Sanchez is obviously John. I haven’t figured out Judas yet, but I guess it could be Benitez.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Peter

It’s better than Matthew just telling the story of Jesus.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 21, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Embarrassingly, I didn’t think of it that way, but I’m just going to pretend I did and say, “Exactly.”

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 21, 2008 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eh I wouldn’t read much into it. I went to Sunday School for like ten years and I can recite stuff from the Bible in my sleep. To me it’s just more random knowledge I can use to my advantage.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 21, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jesus loves me

Jesus loves me, this I know—for the bible tells me so.

by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, beyond the, “just telling the story of Jesus,” part, I didn’t even think about the Matt:Matthew connection. I thought about it with Sanchez, but 747’d it with Matty. Not too bright on my part.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 22, 2008 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

IIRC, the book of Matthew contained the Sermon on the Mound…

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 22, 2008 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm, if this is true, it muddles my original outline. Can all three of them be Jesus? And then, maybe, they combine one day to form Mecha-Jesus? Mecha-Jesus would be the destroyer of other teams playoff runs.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 22, 2008 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

3 jesus's combined

to form Voltron-Jesus.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Jun 22, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sermon of the Mound!

The Sermon of the Mound. Darn we’re getting good!

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately

Unfortunately I’m unable to locate what I was hoping for regarding Matt Cain’s frequency of swing-throughs.

I do remember from some posts I made over the winter that Matt’s swing-through percentage on fastballs was close to TIm’s, but that his percentage on curves and change ups was much less.

Tim’s change up was one of the toughest pitches to make contact with last year among ALL pitchers. I saw somewhere where that was the case again this season.

I know what I can do. I can check the number of swing-throughs in Matt’s last start. Someone said they felt he had improved in that regard.

Matt had 14 swing-throughs in his eight innings last night. I would say that is quite good. Looking at one of my game charts of Tim Lincecum’s appearances, he had 10 swing-throughs in eight innings against the Phillies on May 10th. The best thing about that for Tim was that six of the 10 swing-throughs came in his last two innings. Four were against his curve, and one each against his fastball and change. Some or even all of the “curves” I mentioned might have been his slider.

Tim usually gets most of his swing-throughs on fastballs early in the game when he is strongest. More of the swing-throughs on off-speed pitches come later in the game, as he throws quite a few more off-speed pitches later in the game.

But coming back to our focus. I would take 14 swing-throughs from Matt any day of the week. It sounds as if the poster who noted more swing-throughs from Matt in his outing last night was right on the ball.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 12:03 AM PDT reply actions  

It was Jponry, Rog

And both she and Jesus love you.

by Moggeee on Jun 22, 2008 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jesus, I understand

Jesus, I understand. Jponry? Not if she’s in her right mind. :) But thanks for the kind thought.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think SharksRog is pretty okay!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 22, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's a very good question

Very good question Slojoe. Apparently you’re not so slow after all. :)

But to answer, I don’t think so. Edinson has had big-time control problems. But I do think he has been the best pitcher in the National League thus far this season. Yes, even better than Tim.

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks, Xanthan!

I was having problems finding out info about the comparitive swing-through rates of Tim Lincecum and Matt, but I stumbled across the following info from Xanthan over at Bay City Ball:

The Giants’ top rates of swing-throughs per pitch last season were:

Tim Lincecum change-up 23.03%

Tim Lincecum curve ball 17.03%

Barry Zito change up 13.60%

Matt Cain change up 13.50%

Noah Lowry change up 13.40%

So we can see that Tim was by far the more dominant of the two last season, having one pitch that generated about three-quarters as many swing-throughs as Matt’s best pitch and another that generated about a third more.

And we can see that when Mike Krukow continues to say that Tim developed his change up this past winter, he is ignoring the facts. By the way, I LOVE Mike. Very fine announcer with both insight and a great sense of humor. But sometimes he is just flat-out wrong.

The Giants have great announcers overall, but two who have grated on me were Joe Angel (the second time around) and Tim McCarver. Joe was just trying too hard, and I really felt sorry for the guy, who himself soon became an adios pelota. And I was embarassed for Tim, who was a haughty as he was unprepared.

But overall, are we blessed with our announcers, or WHAT?

by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2008 11:14 PM PDT reply actions  

O.T. on announcers

Can we ship McCarver to India to cover games? Please?

I am not too wild about Buck’s son either. Tone done the rampant Homer attitude on a national broadcast – MEAT. But at lest the younger Buck has plenty of years to improve his craft.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on Jun 23, 2008 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

You’re welcome Sharksrog, glad you found something useful on my page.

by xanthan on Jun 23, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was having problems finding out info about the comparitive swing-through rates of Tim Lincecum and Matt

Don’t you see, though. THIS is the trap. THIS is exactly what’s causing all the trouble. THIS makes it a case of one versus the other… if one isn’t making the same pace as the other, then he’s a failure. If Matt Cain is behind Tim Lincecum’s learning curve, then Matt Cain is deficient. I know that you often, when you do criticize Matt you back it up by saying something like “I’m not saying Matt is bad… he’s very good… it’s just he could be better,” which is true in its own right, but is also in many ways based on the aforementioned comparative fallacy…

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 22, 2008 11:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Errr… that was a reply to sharksrog above and actually came off more critical than necessary. Many people are unconsciously making this comparative connection, and rog does a good job of making sure that he’s clear that he’s not saying things about Matt that are BAD, because he knows that Matt is good… and I don’t blame rog for making it about Lincecum, anyway because I have a feeling that if him and I watched Wall-E together next Friday, it would somehow end up about Lincecum.

It’s just that people see Cain coming along slower than Lincecum and that somehow makes them forget that he’s still actually coming around faster than all but maybe two or three other guys in the league.

Because it’s not Cain vs. Lincecum. That can’t be it. It just can’t. That’s stupid. It’s just… stupid….

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 22, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wall-E

You mean the movie about the tiny little guy who’s totally adorable and is the last best hope for something much much bigger than him? Nobody believes in him because of his size and how he’s not much to look at, but he’s called on anyway to act as a savior and has to overcome huge odds to succeed?

That movie?

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Jun 23, 2008 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Though will Tim dolls be available in mass quanities at the dugout store, as Wall-E dolls are sure to be overproduced and hawked at Disney Stores following the movie’s release?

...who am I kidding, I want a Remy doll. The little cooking rat from Ratatouille.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 23, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wow… I can’t believe it was that easy….

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 23, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this comment so hard.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 23, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Tim is the bestest pitcher of all time

Huh? You say this is isn’t an Enchanter love thread? Well it should be!

Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!

by UnleashTheGore on Jun 23, 2008 9:21 AM PDT reply actions  

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