Contending in 2009
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:02 PM PDT
Email
PrintI think we have a great chance of contending next year. We just need to make a few changes. The most important is we have no power. This can be changed and changed fast thru trades this year and off season signings.
Trades: Winn. He has value and does not fit in to our long term plans. We can not realistically compete with no power threat in the outfield. A real power threat, I mean. His contract is the worst thing about him.
Aurilia, Durham, Vizquel will be gone at the end of the year so it doesn't matter what we do with them.
Offseason priority #1 : Sign Adam Dunn. Put him in Left and move Lewis to Right.
Offseason priority #2 : Make a strong run at Mark Teixeira. He will be harder to land but would take care of our 1b and would be another power threat.
Offseason priority #3 : Sign Rafael Furcal. We are going to need a SS and he is more than serviceable.
Add these three bats to the lineup and it is instant contender time. Another benefit of this is that Dunn and Teixeira are still young. They will both want longish term deals which could end up with bad contracts. Teixeira should age well but who knows with Dunn. Three years for Dunn and four for Teixeira and we are in business.
I'm guessing it would take about 40-45 million a year for that trio. After the contract drop off at the end of this year, would we have enough to do this? I'm guessing it would put us over budget, but by how much.
We'd have a lineup like:
Lewis
Furcal
Teixeira
Dunn
Rowand
Molina
Castillo
Frandsen
And I do know it is not the most realistic thing to think they will pursue all three. There are actually other SS out there. Furcal is the marquee one, though. We really don't have to go for him as Burris would be suitable. Just the two boppers would radically improve the team and should be affordable assuming we are able to shop Winn.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
205 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
2008 team salary
Is around 76 million with roughly 15 million coming off: Durham, Vizquel, Aurilia and Zito getting a 4 million raise.
That makes 63 million. I think we would be able to sign both Dunn and Teixeira for nice sized contracts. We’d be in the low 90s which is about where we were before. The team can definitely afford it.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply actions
I’ll add to this, the last thing we need to do is load up on 3 high priced FA and kick some more draft picks to the curb.
I could be mistaken
but aren’t top 10 picks protected from being lost in top free agent signings?
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh darn
2nd round picks are not very valuable.
I’ll take Tex or Dunn, please.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions
um
Chase Headley, Yunel Escobar, Reid Brignac, Yovani Gallardo, Hunter Pence, Dustin Pedroia, Kurt Suzuki, Tom Gorzelanny, Nate Schierholtz, Andre Ethier, Joey Votto, Micah Owings, Jonathan Broxton, Brian McCann, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Carl Crawford and Chase Utley
would all like to have a word with you.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 19, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Thank you for this comment. My head exploded and I wasn’t able to form words for a while.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 19, 2008 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
you're welcome?
good luck with the headsplosion recovery.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 19, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
And these guys would like a word with you...
Brad Baisley, David Kelton, Robbie Morrison, Chad Hutchinson, Marcus Sents, Ben Knapp, Matt Belisle, Coleman Nowlin, Eric Good, Tim Lemon, Nick Neugebauer, Jeremy Cotton, Jermaine Van Buren, Dennis Emmanuel, Jeff Goldback, Zach Sorensen, Pat Strange, Jeff Verplancke, Mike Fischer, Randy Keisler, Eli Serrano, Alex Hart, Derek Wathan, Chris Magruder, Adam Pettyjohn (the 2nd round picks from same draft as Adam Dunn who didn’t do much of anything, if anything, in the majors; other “keepers” are Gerald Laird, Gary Majewski, Jody Gerut).
And that’s just one round, maybe I should go over all the other guys for each guy you list, to make the point I’ve been making regarding my draft study, the odds are very low, very low, to find anyone even useful, like a Michael Tucker, let alone a good player, in the second round.
Also, you might want to read this lovely diatribe against Dunn by Ricciardi (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/06/ricciardi-doesn.html):
First a fan calls up and asks Ricciardi whether the Jays have interest in Dunn. Ricciardi replies that he’s not interested in Dunn. Then he says:
“Maybe we have more information and know the player a little more than the average fan.”
Interesting. Another fan calls up and says he’s surprised Ricciardi would be so quick to dismiss a power bat like Dunn. Ricciardi really goes off on Dunn this time:
“He’s a lifetime .230-.240 hitter that strikes out a ton and hits home runs.
Did you know the guy doesn’t really like baseball that much? Did you know the guy doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much? I don’t think you’d be very happy if we brought Adam Dunn here…We’ve done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn.”
Here is Dunn’s reaction: http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/06/19/dunn_i_dont_know_the_clown
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 20, 2008 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Is Ricciardi the biggest GM flop of all time? The hype about him coming out the A’s organization was intense, but he’s turned into the Shawn Abner or Brian Bullington of GMs.
Maybe, but the idea that any would actually quote him of evidence on whether or not Dunn is a good baseball player is amazing.
I do think JP is on his way out of Toronoto, he just sounds unhappy all the time. Some guys aren’t cut out for being a GM and he could be one of them, despite being “Beane’s protege”
It’s like me quoting Dusty Baker as evidence on if black guys play better in the hot sun or not. It’s a dumb, stupid quote from someone talking out of their ass.
Bah!
I don’t think it’s that he’s not cut out to be a GM, I think it’s that he’s not cut out to be in Canada! Being there is enough to make ANYONE depressed!!!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
But the streets are so clean!
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
Yeah, and everyone is so friendly!
But like maple syrup, Canada’s evil oozes over the United States!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
How the hell???
How is it that guys like Dunn and our 2003 version of Jose Cruz are able to strike out a ton, yet still have a good enough eye to walk over 100 times in a season??? If you’re patient enough to draw over 100 walks, shouldn’t you be patient enough to NOT strike out 190 times???
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Patience goes hand in hand with striking out a lot actually
If you see more pitches, you are likely to see more 2 strike counts which lead logically to more strikeouts.
It’s only superhuman players like Barry who are able to avoid that.
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
I can’t fathom the idea that a second-round draft pick is not something to be fought for and treasured. Every single year, at least one MVP-level talent is drafted in the second and third rounds, usually more. Sure, the odds are against you. But each baseball team only has a 1-in-30 shot of winning the World Series every year. Should they not even try to do so because the odds are against them?
Please back this up with facts
Name the MVP level talent picked in the 2nd and or 3rd rounds for each of the last 10 drafts. This of course will spark a debate on what is MVP level, but hey, you said it. Only 10 players, too.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t want to debate MVP level, but here are the best second & third rounders, starting at random in 1995:
1995: Beltran, JJ Putz
1996: Rollins, Nick Johnson
1997: Randy Wolf, Ankiel, Utley
1998: Dunn, Zito
1999: Carl Crawford, Brandon Phillips, Morneau
2000: Sizemore, Chris Young the pitcher
2001: Haren, JJ Hardy
2002: McCann, Granderson
etc.
Hmm, I see 2.5 top flight talents in there
Haren and Rollins. and zito
Then there are a bunch of second level guys.
So let’s just give you the benefit of the doubt and say that maybe 5% of the time, a 2nd or 3rd round pick ends up being better than average.
How is that not worth signing someone you already know is better than average?
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Utley is not top flight? ;)
I don’t know, even if you diss the talent as being marginal, I know I’d rather have a Sizemore, Crawford, Phillips, McCann or Granderson than Tex or Dunn, and that’s not counting the money saved by having a controllable guy.
Proud new parent of Mr. Buster Posey... you know, if he signs and stuff.
by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 20, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you miss the point
100% vs. 5%.
See?
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions
How are Dunn or Tex 100%? Will they be 100% for the life of their next contracts? Will they sign contracts that the Giants can trade if their skills start to decline? I just don’t see it.
Dunn and Tex are nice players, but they’re not youngish-MVPs worth a rebuilding, young team, hitching their horse to, especially as their ‘peak’ years won’t coincide with contending years. I see Dunn and Tex and all I think is ‘Todd Helton’. I don’t want any piece of Todd Helton.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Dunn. I’d love to have him on the Giants, but I think he’s better off becoming a DH somewhere. As for Tex, I think he’s overrated and about to become massively overpaid. I’d rather role the dice, get a nice second rounder in 2009 and sign the next ‘must-have’ free agent slugger in 2010. Who knows, maybe that means we have the next Utley and a guy like Fielder. (Or Howard, whoever is available that year that everyone is buzzing about…)
Proud new parent of Mr. Buster Posey... you know, if he signs and stuff.
by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 20, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Signing someone you already know is better than average?
Like Barry Zito, you mean?
All-Father Watch: 1.11 ERA, 6 saves, 0.90 WHIP, 34 Ks in 32 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on Jun 21, 2008 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Will Dunn age well? Probably not he’s a classic old player skills dude.
Tex is going to cost $20M a year and Furcal has injury problems.
If this was MLB 08 The Show, I like your lineup, but not so much in real life.
MLB 08 the show
After my first season in Career (road to the show) the Giants sent Zito to AAA and cut Matt Cain. I wish the first would come to reality, not the second.
I'm an ESPN Insider!
the show
yeah i have that too… in my rtts, i was lucky enough to have the giants (get this) trade zito to det for a single a 2b (who made it up in 3 yes to replace ray ray).
fwiw, the giants records in my game (i missed 2009, but it wasnt anything to write home about)... 2010: 71-91; 2011: 69-93; 2012: 67-95
2012 is with a lineup consisting of matt holliday, jeff kepinger, joe crede, and rowand…
no major pickups in 2013.. luckily i was traded. 4 years of pitching and waiting for the run support to come was brutal. (all 4 years the giants were DEAD LAST in runs).
i hope the game does not mirror rl.
I hate to disagree...
...but we are contending THIS year. Eight games out is nothing. We all expect the rug to get pulled out from under us at some point, but we are in the thick of it at this point.
Don't play a dangerous game.
8 games out is actually quite a bit. If all the teams ahead of us play only .500 for the rest of the year, we’d have to play something like .650 over that same period. I’ll try to remember to do the real math later. It’s actually an interesting problem.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I've always thought...
that if you are five games out going into September…you are still in it.
Eight games is nothing in June. Think about the A’s, the Rockies, the Phillies, etc.
I’m not saying we’re good, or projecting the rest of the season, I’m just saying we’re contending this year, as of today.
Don't play a dangerous game.
Maybe, if you’re five games out and there is only one team in front of you and you play them for a couple of series in the month. Change Howtheyscored’s post to “if ONE of the teams ahead of us play only .500….).
by paboperfecto on Jun 20, 2008 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions
sure
If you’re five games out in September… With a winning record! If you’re playing .550 ball and the team ahead of you is five games up, you’ve got a shot! If you’re playing .450 ball in September with a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs typically, then you might not want to start ordering postseason champagne.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Five games out in September...
...is when the manager SAYS “we’re still in it”, not when they actually ARE still in it.
The Rockies were 5 games back going into September, went on an insanely hot streak and managed to catch the Padres. The Padres played barely .500 ball (15-14) while the Rockies went 21-8. That’s not really a pattern you can expect to follow.
All-Father Watch: 1.11 ERA, 6 saves, 0.90 WHIP, 34 Ks in 32 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on Jun 20, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmm I expected around a 70 win season. Lets me see we are winning at a .425 rate so that puts us at 68- 69 wins. Not really off schedule.
You do realize that as us this morning only the D Backs, Marlins & Mets has a lower RZR infield rating then us in the National League? We are about even with the Brewers. So that is not exactly helping these strong arms dominate and it is highly unlikely our "o" will suddenly be has potent as 3 of those 4 teams. And the infield "d" has been hanging around the lower half of the 760’s all season.
Just because the rest of the division has not taken off an left us in the dust does not mean we are good. Just means, in this case, they been playing down to our level for a while.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Lay off the Kool-Aid
8 games out in June, when you can’t score well (5th worst in MLB in runs scored) and your “ace” pitcher is the worst player in the league and you have a bunch of inconsistent and unreliable rookies and old farts isn’t “contending.” It’s the opposite of contending. they might be lucky not to be further out, but that doesn’t mean they’re in it. It means they’re not.
If this was the Tigers (currently 7GB), then I might agree that it is reasonable to expect a run at the division title, but this team isn’t the Tigers. This Giants team is a pretty bad team. It may not be as bad (thus far) as expected, but that hardly makes it a contender.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 20, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Castillo
To me, it’s Castillo in your lineup that shows the real problem with this team. The Giants have some solutions for the outfield. They have none for the infield. You have Frandsen penciled in at second base. Now, I like Frandsen but how will he respond after missing an entire year? He wasn’t exactly a top prospect to begin with. I think he certainly can be a contributor to a good team but it is far from certain.
Really, if the Giants followed your plan, they would still have big uncertainties at both 3rd and 2nd. Then you combine this with the fact that both Bowker and Schierholtz, who could very well contribute to a good team, have no place, then I see some problems.
To me, the positions that the Giants have to fix are….well, every infield position. That’s not going to be an easy task. Which is why, while I think 2009 is a possibility, I think it is unlikely.
2010, however, I could buy.
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
No I didn't
To me, the positions that the Giants have to fix are….well, every infield position.
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
I don’t see Dunn as a good fit for this team. He’ll probably be pricey and would take up a position where the Giants have some depth. I’d rather leave Lewis in LF and bring up Schierholtz to play RF. In regards to Tex, I’d rather not get saddled with another big contract. I’d rather fill the position from within the organization. Hopefully Bowker sticks there for a good while. Furcal… maybe, but he’s not exactly entering his prime years. Plus there are the injury problems like xanthan mentioned.
I feel like the Giants could be competitive thanks to the pitching, but I’d rather not see the Giants give out any big contracts next season just to try and contend then when they could be planning further ahead.
So what do we do with all that money?
We are going to have roughly 30 million to play with. I really can’t see us not pursuing at least one of those three. I do like Bowker a lot and I can see him really blossoming. The thing is, it might take a couple more years and then AnVil will be ready. A four year deal for Tex right now would work pretty well. He’d only be 33 at the end of it and if there were no no-trade clause, could bring back a decent return.
Both he and Dunn will be 29 next year and should contribute for a good while. I favor Dunn simply because we have no power in the OF and we have no power prospects in the OF. Something about Nate says AAAA to me.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Players peak between 27-28 and to get Dunn, it could take 5-6 years and thats not something I would be comfortable with if I was Sabean. Guys with old player skills (OBP, SLG) don’t tend to age well (See: Mo Vaugh, Richie Sexson) and no way Tex will sign for a 4 year deal.
Where did you get your $30M figure from? Just wondering.
With Durham, Aurilia, and Omar leaving the payroll the Giants will get about $17M to play with but that’ll reduce to about $7.9M after raises and such. The Giants payroll this year is $76M and I’m not sure they’ll kick it back up to $90M anytime soon. I could see them lowering it a little actually.
The 90 million is what I was looking at. I think we’ll have about 60 mill on the books after this year, assuming we deal Winn. Even better if we get rid of Roberts.
I know about old player skills. I think Dunn will be fine for a few more years. He’ll be 29. So a 3 year deal (which is doable) will give us his 29-31 years. He should be fine through those.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Then we use the spare money from not signing Dunn to find a good 3B. Not sure who will be on the market, but they have to be better than seeing Castillo, and Dunn is a definite no-no to me. Just another Fleas, but left-handed.
Dunn a left-handed Feliz???
I’m joining the party late, but I can’t believe no one has called you out on this. I’m not a big Dunn fan,but I mean, c’mon.
Let’s make it real easy. Dunn’s lifetime OPS+ is 130. Pedro’s? 85.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
I just meant in terms of strikeouts and AVG. Dunn has a terrible average, which I think matters a lot, but apparently I way overvalue(see Beltre). I guess my thinking is wrong, but I would want a player with a good average and good K/BB ratio.
It doesn't matter how high your average and K rates are if you still drive in runs
He consistantly drives in around 100 runs a year. He definitely helps any lineup, though his price might be a little high because of his shiny HR numbers.
I guess he has on OPS of .909, but I’d much rather see Nate get a chance. People criticize him for not tearing up the PCL, but he’s only human(and still only 24) and one of our only real prospects close to ML level, yet it seems most don’t want him. Hypocrisy or am I overrating him?
24 and still in AAA
I think you are overrating him, as do many people on this site.
perhaps he will get called up and mash, the thing is, he doesn’t really seem like a big power guy and that is something our team is severely lacking.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions
24 isn't old for AAA,
and he hit 333 .365 .560 in 2007, and 301 .347 .541 now. It’s not his fault that Sabean is wasting his time in AAA.
I think you are underrating him, as do many people on this site.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
so..
nates ops this year, in a hitter friendly AAA, is less than dunns in the pros
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
And Dunn plays where, exactly?
In a VERY hitter friendly park in Cincinatti.
Since you’re comparing Dunn and Schierholtz, how much is Schierholtz earning, and how much is Dunn earning and going to earn? Dunn is better than Schierholtz, sure. Is he $100M or so better? That $100M you’re not paying Dunn can be used to pay someone else.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I could be very wrong
but when was the last time a legit free agent signed a contract as short as 4 years? Tex is probably not gonna sign for anything less than 6 yr / 90m.
my cousin and i got noah lowry's autograph after he came out of a porta-potty. he was nice about it.
He sure isn’t. Boras is his agent and this is his chance to cash in one last time. Both the Mets and Yankees could be heavy bidders for him. No way he takes a 4-year deal from a team like the Giants.
i think he's going to get at least $18 M /year
even at that price, might be worth it…
he seems to have peaked in 2005 though
also,
he’s not outhitting Randy Winn this year.
He’s good, don’t get me wrong. But he’s not the perennial MVP candidate he looked like a few years back.
you can't block the Bocock
Texy
I think you’re right. He’s a very good player, but he just isn’t putting up the kind of numbers this year, his free agent year, that would warrant that kind of big money/years that he will demand/command. Also, we have a major pitcher’s park. His left-handed power will be severely neutralized here. I don’t see why he’d want to come here, though that isn’t to say I wouldn’t want him for a reasonable price.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 20, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes to Tex… not super-interested in Dunn. But a general question, to all those who say that signing free agents is the last thing we should be doing right now—what, exactly, are you waiting for?
We have a considerable amount of pitching talent that’s ready NOW. I can understand letting them rot for a year or two if we had great offensive talent coming up soon, but we don’t, particularly… we have Posey and a bunch of question marks. We have a bunch of guys - Lewis, Schierholtz, Bowker, Frandsen - who profile as exactly average players. They’re not going to get us anywhere fast, and trading for really promising young bats has essentially become impossible.
Tex is 28 and healthy… he has the profile of a guy who ages pretty well, as power hitters go. Assuming he picks it up this year - and the peripheral numbers suggest he will - it’s not likely that there’ll be a free agent hitter of his calibre after 2009.
We have a lot of money to spend. It’ll either go towards upgrading our talent level.
I know we’ve been burned a million times by signing crappy guys, but this is the EXACT kind of team that should be considering a big-ticket FA slugger. Let’s not be the Pirates, here.
You've asked a good question
I guess my response would be: I fear that’s the thinking that got us Barry Zito. “We’ve got all this money, let’s get us a marketable Big Player.”
I am strongly anti-Dunn. His production would not (to me) justify his cost. And we have useable parts in the OF already (Lewis, Nate, even Bowker). What we don’t have are infielders, as thehavenot pointed out above. Teixeira is the sort of FA I’d pursue, but I don’t think he (specifically) would sign with us for an amount that would be worthwhile for us. And he isn’t really tearing things up in Atlanta. So, yes, I would probably sit on that extra money this year and see what turns up after next year.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
Teixeira
Definately worth considering, however I don’t think he is leaving Atlanta. The Braves too have plenty of money freed up in the offseason, and Teixeira wants to play there.
WRONG!
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 19, 2008 7:20 PM PDT reply actions
Strange
but almost true. both hover around a career 6.2 WARP. I’d say they’re about equal.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 19, 2008 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Does WARP include defense? Including the fact that Winn can play a more demanding position (RF at AT&T)
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
I’m fairly sure it does.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
WARP is kind of a lame stat, but yes, it includes defense, and that’s what tips the scales. Dunn may be a little overrated as a hitter, but clearly he’s much better than Randy Winn. But the defensive difference between the two is equally huge.
It’s not just that—they also set “replacement level” in a weird spot, much lower than any reasonable level. Put that together with the bad fielding numbers and WARP becomes a stat of last resort.
they also set "replacement level" in a weird spot, much lower than any reasonable level.
I have to agree, since Bocock was in positive territory according to WARP.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Since the replacement level is consistent I don’t think it’s an awful stat when used comparatively. I think that if used just solely as “OMG LOOK AT THE 7.8 WARP3 THIS YEAR HE’S AWESOMEZ!!” then yeah that’s a problem.
WARP is seriously flawed, especially with regards to defense, but if you want to compare the complete package of two players, it’s the most useful tool because it includes the defensive measurement.
Is there a better all-in-one stat that I’m missing? I’d love to hear.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 20, 2008 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
The low replacement lvl
isn’t a big problem, but it is a problem. With such a low replacement lvl, as Cookyman pointed out, even Bocock is positive, players who get a lot of playing time, get overrated, even if they’re not really all that good.
According to Clay Daveport, the inventor, the replacement lvl or WARP is an AA player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
It's
a matter of perspective. The more stats you accumulate and the more you play, the more valuable you are to your team and the more you’ve contributed to a win.
when using it as a comparison, the numerical value of the numbers is irrelevant. Bocock’s positive WARP is .6. That’s not much. I actually like that his WARP is positive though because, though his hitting was atrocious, he played enough defense to be worth just a tiny bit more than an average shortstop called up from AA would produce.
The point i’m trying to make is that if the numbers are inflated because of the low replacement level, all the players are overrated because they’re all compared with the same replacement level.
This does come with a but, and that is, it should be used solely as a comparative statistic. I do have a problem with the Range Factor defensive component, but when used as an all-inclusive comparative stat (as it should be) I have no problem with WARP3.
What i’d really like to happen is that THT comes up with a much better component stat to replace WARP3. I prefer their stats page anyways.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 21, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Dunn
is a little underrated as a hitter. His OBP makes up for his BA deficiency.
And yes, WARP does take in a devensive (albeit not very good) metric. It uses Range Factor which kinda sucks, but if you’re talking about the difference between Randy Winn and Adam Dunn I think it’s okay to utilize a not so great defensive metric to gauge the difference.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 20, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
368 obp on the road
last 3 years..most of his value comes from playing in cinci
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
Point
taken.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 20, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
actually
i think he is undervalued because of his BA, but overvalued because of his Home/Away splits.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 20, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Please not Teixiera
Hear me out. This team just started out on the track of not trying to solve all their problems via free agency. I would not spend on a FA for the OF, 1B, C or any pitcher. I would only look to pick up a FA or two at the 3B, SS or 2B spots. Whether FA are signed at those spots depends on the health of Kevin Frandsen and the development of Burris and Velez. If all of those 3 things go right, maybe all the team should spend on is some veteran bench players. I’m fine with giving Bowker a long look at 1B. The last team this team needs to do is go and blow the team strategy by giving another large contract to a player like Teixiera. Developing for the future is where the focus should be out, not win-now type players
Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park, following a brief detour by the DL
The thing is
There really aren’t many options at 2b,3b,ss. This team really needs some pop. We have the $$. Why not spend it?
by positiveuphemism on Jun 19, 2008 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, how is committing to a lineup of youngish C-plus players “developing for the future”? None of Schierholtz, Lewis, Velez, Frandsen, Burris and Bowker profiles as a star, and a couple of them will undoubtedly prove to be unworthy of starting spots in the bigs altogether. Teams don’t get better by falling in love with guys like that… you need elite players to compete.
if two of those actually turn out to be avg. or above-avg. major leaguers(say Freddie and Bowker)
that would be a great success…
Absolutely
And I’m not arguing against giving all these guys shots this year. I’m arguing against the idea that we can’t consider upgrading any of these spots in free agency just because we have youngish players in them.
Look, putting a pile of middling prospects out there and hoping they’ll become special all of a sudden is the hallmark of bad teams. We’ve been a different type of bad team for the last several years, so it looks appealing as an alternative, but at its heart it’s the same strategy as Veteranomania: it’s optimism prevailing over logic. It’s how you tool along at 79-83 year after year, thinking that you’re just a lightning-bolt first-round pick away from being somebody. Smart teams don’t play it like that.
The fact that we have a lot of these guys is good. Serviceable cheap placeholders are part of a winning strategy… but only if you balance them with elite talent elsewhere. We have no elite position players except mayyybe Rowand, and no good shots at future elite position players except for Posey and maybe, way down the line, AnVil. Free agency, if used judiciously, could allow us to get another elite player or two. The only one I’d gamble on this year is Tex, and I’m not even entirely sold on him… but I’m entirely sold on considering free agency as a tool to make the team better. Even with this killer draft, our homegrown talent isn’t enough to put us on the map by itself, not in ‘09 or ‘10, probably not in ‘11 or ‘12.
I’m all for a youth movement, but only as part of an effective organizational philosophy, not for its own sake. To eschew free agency altogether is to commit to a brighter future that will probably never come. We have too little offensive upside, and too much money, to make that mistake.
But trying to be good too quickly is also a failing strategy
I agree with you that free agency shouldn’t be forgotten. It should be used. But it should be used smartly. If you are not entirely sold on a player then you should not get that player in free agency.
Do not rush the rebuild. Impatience is bad.
Here’s the thing about the youth movement. We have a bunch of guys who could be average or could even surprise and be better than average or could be nothing whatsoever. We don’t really know until those players get substantial playing time. Unless you make moves that are guarenteed to make us a contender then taking time away from those players is probably a bad decision. At least for this year and probably next. Let’s see what we have with Lewis, Schierholtz, Bowker, Frandsen, Horwitz and .
I’m not totally opposed to Texeira or Furcal. But let’s be smart and judicious and not shoot for next year. Note that I am not saying give up on next year. Just don’t bank on it.
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
i agree - i think they need 2 elite hitters
all of the Bowker and F. Lewis types have their place though…
When counter pointed with older C+ type players it has 2 major advantages.
1) not committed to 3+ years of the same player if another player comes along that is intresting. Don’t laugh if you have not seriously look at how 2nd base was handled last year. It shows this point rather well.
2) When your young B, or better, young pitchers prove they belong and are probably be around a while you can resign them to reasonable contracts.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
I agree not much to cheerful about for SS or 3rd.
Second has large bin blue light specials to grind through though. Guys that have not put is together and have lost it at other positions etc. Granted we at not talking all star type upside but it is entirely possible something servable and not too embarrassing can be found there.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
How about Crede?
He’ll be a FA next year. He’s putting up very solid numbers, he’s got a good glove, and he’ll be somewhat cheap. We could probably ink him to a two or three year deal for 14-24 mil.
Crede is having an amazing year with Scott Boras as his agent. The 3B market is weak. $7-8 million isn’t going to cut it, IMO.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
dammit, Boras again?
is Crede worth $9-$10 M/year? i think id pay pay $9, not sure about $10….
My guess is on the market, it’ll be about $10-12 million per year.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
The thing is not a lot of established contenders need a 3rd baseman right now.
I think Crede ( as free agent) is interesting. I am not on the band wagon to go get him. But as a free agent a lot of my objections to acquiring him are avoided.
The other wild card is do the Mariners decide to move Beltre?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
we should jump on beltre, as hes a better hitter away from safeco, 273/320/479 away from home the last 3 years. not great but id take it
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
Lord knows we have enough CF candidates. The are trying Bloomquist in CF. That Bedard trade really messed them up. And he went out hurt early last night again.
I am not trying to say a C.F. is enough. Just one starting point were we might mesh well. Especially if the new front office decides they need to shed some payroll ( Cots lists it at around 117.6 mill this year). The Giant could eat rest of his 12 mil this year and his 12 mil next. After that he is free agent.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
The problem I have with this
at least if the deals get too long is when it comes time to sign Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez long term, I don’t want to make a lowball offer because we spent too much earlier. I guess we already got Rowand, which has been a decent signing IMO, and of course Zito…
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Cain and Sanchez are still unproven to me
not sure id worry too much about setting aside cash for them just yet
how is cain unproven to you?
He had an excellent year last year. He’s just struggling a bit this year.
i think hes looking more like a good #3 starter at this point
you’re not going to have to break the bank to re-sign him unless they look more towards the earlier rep/hype…
That's definitely possible
but as young as he is and with the success he’s had in the past, as well as the raw stuff he has, I think improvement is probable. By many accounts, he’s still learning to pitch – using all his pitches, not trying to strike everybody out, etc. People say it a lot, but he is slightly younger than Lincecum. Anyway, I think it’s premature to say he’s a #3 starter in the future.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
On this team
He is no better than #2. We have our #1. We have the leagues #1. Depending on what Sanchez does, we may have a #2, as well. This puts Cain at #3. Also, if the MadBum turns out to be the real deal, Cain may drop to #4. That would be a nice prob to have.
The MadBum may be here by 2010 at the rate he is going. He’ll be in SJ next year, at the worst.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
This is insane. Not the idea that in the future Cain may be the 4th best pitcher in the team… there’s a faintly outside shot of that happening, though I’d hedge my bets on Cain before I would think of touching the same bet for either Sanchez or Bumgarner…
But if we’re talking about a ”#2 pitcher,” that’s a team independent classification. Guys are considered #2 pitchers if they pitch at a certain level relative to the league, not relative to their team. Cain would be the #1 starter on half the team’s in the league. Does that make him a ”#1 Starter?” Not necessarily.
If sometime in the future he IS by some strange chance of fate, our fourth best pitcher, that doesn’t make his value equal to the value of a #4 pitcher… it’s just insane…
I… I don’t understand….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Last year he was 8th in the NL in VORP, 10th in FIP and 11th in WHIP. You could make a case for him as a top 16 starter.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
what is he this year?
im guessing 25-30….
people keep pointing out he’s younger than Lincecum, fine, but the thing is, i think hes been well-schooled in pitching already… hope you guys are right, just worries me when it seems like he’s hit his level already…
The year's not over
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
try to be more literal
if you take it that way you’ll see the point. it was not a very serious post
by positiveuphemism on Jun 21, 2008 4:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Inconsistent
I think Matt Cain is proven - more than any other Giants starter aside from Barry Zito, who has proven not to expect to much. As for Matt, he has been maddeningly inconsistent. Matt was great at the end of 2005, awful the first quarter of 2006, fine the rest of the season, spectacular in April of 2007, surprisingly poor in May through July, then amazing in his control (1.80 BB/9) and very good overall in August and September - before being very bad the first half of April (based mostly on the worst start of his career) and pretty good since.
I think of Matt as a rock—statistically, he has been anything but.
I Respectfully Disagree With Your Formula To Compete in 2009.
Yes, we should trade Winn, Durham, and Aurilia this year at the trade deadline. Yes we should target to sign Rafael Frucal to play SS and replace Omar Vizquel in the off season. But that is where our agreement ends.
I see no reason to add another outfielder. A starting outfield in 2009 of Lewis, Rowand, and Schierholtz is what we should be planning on. Horwitz and Ortmeir provide two acceptable and righthanded hitting backups to fill out the outfield therefore we should also be looking dump Roberts even if we have to eat all of his dollars in the off season.
The only other free agent signing I would target in the offseason is Orlando Hudson to play 2B. Hudson and Frucal would greatly improve our middle infield defense and provide excellent offense at the top of the batting order. This would allow us to move Fred Lewis in to the 3 hole where we can better take advantage of his power as well as his on base and base running skills.
The final and most important thing I would seek to do for 2009 is to find a way to get Barry Zito off the roster no matter how many of his contract dollars we have to eat. If we do this it should be reasonalbe to expect that our young pitching will continue to improve enough with the help of our greatly improved middle infield defense to compete even without the elite power hittters you want to add.
My starting lineup would then be:
Frucal SS
Hudson 2B
Lewis RF
Molina C
Rowand CF
Bowker 1B
Schierholtz RF
Castillo, Frandsen, or Denker 3B
And we would have a bench of:
Holm, Alfonzo, or Rodriguez C
Burgiss SS/2B
Castillo, Frandsen, or Denker 2B/3B
Ortmeier 1B/OF
Horwitz 1B/OF
I am not sure if I would target Hudson....
I tend to prefer trying Denker there. But, I also am a frugal cheapskate that doesn’t want the Giants to spend any money.
by Squire_Boone on Jun 19, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
That lineup still lacks any true punch
There are a bunch of pretty good average hitters but no extreme power hitter to drive them in when they get on base. I don’t think we’ll ever succeed with Molina as our cleanup hitter.
Yes, It Lacks Homerun Power
But Homerun Power is not the only way to score. You can have a top 5 NL offense if you put a bunch of doubles hitters with high OBP and speed togeather which is what I have done 1 thru 3 and 5 thru 7. Money Molina stays in the 4 hole because he has convinced me that there really is such a thing a clutch hitting.
by giantsrainman on Jun 20, 2008 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions
If the pitching can improve enough
we don’t need a top 5 offense to win, only a mid-range offense.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 20, 2008 3:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I get that
It’s a good lineup, but I’d like it a lot more with Teixeira in it. And if Furcal or Hudson got hurt we’d be quite fucked.
I'm not sure I've ever cared for any rainman built lineup... Before now
I actually don’t mind this lineup, though I wouldn’t mind seeing a real improvement at third. Maybe there isn’t currently any exceptional power hitter in the lineup, but what does Bowker project to, power wise? I could imagine him putting up 30 homers at some point, though I have no idea if that’s an unreasonable expectation.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
He's definitely got the power
If he can learn to hit offspeed stuff he might very well do that someday.
It's not bad, but
I worry about Furcal and his injury problems. He missed games last year and has missed most of this season so far.
But the thing that sticks out about this line-up is 3B. While Frandsen and Denker might be league average 2B neither they, nor Castillo, hit well enough to be a corner in-fielder. The plan for Frandsen at 3B this year was supposed to be temporary. Castillo is just a stopgap.
I wonder if we could take the $30 million in freed up money and add it to what what we’ve budgeted for Zito in 2009 and buy him out? That’s getting close to $50 million, right?
I’m only sort of joking.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
Deja Vu
Wasn’t there a similar fanpost to this one about a month or two ago? What is the obsession with Adam Dunn and Rafael Furcal?
I can understand Texeira, but Dunn has never been that impressive and Furcal strikes me as a guy who will lose value as he gets older What happens when Furcal’s speed starts to go? Will he age well? I tend to think not. He’ll probably go the way of Juan Pierre, but I have no reasons to back that up.
Also, although I like Texeira, it is not like his power numbers this year have been that great. I just wonder if he will ever live up to his 2005 season.
Thank God someone has some common sense around here
Furcal is NOT THE ANSWER! He’s constantly hurt and because he hits pretty decently will demand over $10 million (probably). I see this as an Alfonso-type contract if he signs with the Giants with at minimum 30 days on the DL each year.
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on Jun 20, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Mark Teixeira
career OPS+ 129. Adam Dunn, career OPS+ 130. Teixeira is 28. Dunn is also 28.
If Dunn is not impressive, then neither is Teixeira. Given the money that Teixeira and Boras are reportedly seeking, $20M x 10, he’s going to be an overpaid and overrated albatross.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
+1
Proud new parent of Mr. Buster Posey... you know, if he signs and stuff.
by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 21, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Teixeira will age a little better than Dunn. Dunn checks like 7 out of 7 boxes on the old player skills form. Teixeira can play defense and hit for average, at least.
Dunn seems like he’s walking down the Ben Grieve career path.
you can't block the Bocock
I don’t know, I don’t want him on the Giants, but I’m pretty optimistic about Dunn. When I think about players with his skill set - huge power, tons of walks, tons of strikeouts - I think of Mark McGwire, whose thirties were better than his twenties. Reggie Jackson and Willie Stargell were similar players.
Dunn can’t play the field, but he’s not slow. I expect him to be a top DH for ten years and end up over 600 home runs.
Teixeira is nice... in a fantasy league
But not for the money that he is going to get, which will be at least $20M per season for at least 5 seasons.
Look at his home/away splits for his career:
Home: .300/.379/.566/.944, 98 HR in 1556 AB (16 AB/HR)
Away: .268/.361/.494/.854, 82 HR in 1558 AB (19 AB/HR)
When Rowand has been healthy over the past 5 seasons, his road numbers are approximately the same, though less homers for sure, I guess he makes up for it with doubles. And we are only paying him $12M per season.
If a true superstar were available, I would advocate getting him, but I don’t think any is coming out, at least not that I can recall. And I would only get Furcal if we can convince him to take a short contract again, like he did with LA. We need to keep payroll free for when Lincecum will be rolling in the dough, and he should be starting once he reaches arbitration unless we can sign him soon…
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 20, 2008 4:05 AM PDT reply actions
Oh and nice enthusiasm
But do you want to compete sooner or longer?
You short circuit the re-building process by pushing all in with the payroll for next year, and maybe we can be competitive sooner, but that will have repurcussions later that could bring us down sooner.
I would rather last longer competitively than be competitive sooner. Save some of that money to get next year’s Rodriguez/Villalona, next year’s Posey, plus that might get us another Bumgarner level talent in 2010 as well, and THAT, my friend, will secure our future success into the next decade.
It is this impatience that got us where we are today, trying to win now with Bonds that we did for the past few years. I understand we had to do that, I’m glad we tried to win it all with him, but that failed and now he’s gone, we need to do the re-build right.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 20, 2008 4:13 AM PDT reply actions
longer please.
Because eventually your ticket will get “drawn” if it keeps getting into the final 8. And the longer you are able to stay there to more likely your prospects are toward the upper end of the farm. If you have mostly young team and attractive pieces in the upper half it gets a lot easier to add that missing piece. Presuming the ownership is not pinching pennies.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Another respectful disagreeing
Texiera isn’t going to sign with the Giants – he’s made a lot of noise about playing in Baltimore or re-signing with Atlanta. He’s an east coast guy, and I think he wants to play for an east coast team. I think the only way that Tex signs with the Giants is if they throw Zito money and years at him, and he’s not worth it. The home/road splits are disconcerting, the slower and slower starts every year are disconcerting and a big slugging 1B is not going to make this team contend next year if the 2B, SS and 3B are barely league-average.
Furcal – no. Two scoops of no with a no cherry on top. He has back problems, and back problems do not get better as you age, they get worse. I don’t trust him to start half a season from here on out, and half a season is not worth what he’s going to get paid. Let someone else sign an aging SS with declining health to big dollars.
Dunn… ugh. He’s the least problematic of the three. His defense in LF isn’t as bad as some make it, but I’d rather have Lewis or Schierholz and save some money for a year. If Dunn could make a successful transition to 1B (no evidence of this being possible, considering the Reds tried in the past), that would be something, but he seems to be trending toward becoming a DH.
Personally, I’d rather see what the guys we have now can do, sign a few low-salary guys who can carry water and invest in next year’s draft and the international scene. Contending in 2009 doesn’t excite me; contending every year 2010 and beyond does.
Proud new mom of Mr. Buster Posey.
by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 20, 2008 10:17 AM PDT reply actions
generally agree, but
Here’s the thing.
1) We have money to spend. If management is serious about being willing to get back to an $85-90 million threshold, we have, what, $20 million available? More than that? That’s an asset… our money gives us a leg up over a couple other teams in our division. It is, generally speaking, something we should take advantage of.
2) All of our young talent is under team control for several years. We’re not going to need to shell out big money for Cain or Lincecum until 2011 at the earliest, and that’s assuming (as we all hope) that they’re worth big money at that point. We have a three or four-year window where this current crop of talent is pretty cheap.
3) This extra money can’t all be spent on the draft or international signings (unless we’re looking at Yu Darvish or something). There’s a ceiling to the amount of talent you can accrue in a draft, both because of the players available and because you’ll destroy your bargaining power in future years if you capitulate to every player you want. Most of this extra money will either go toward free agents or just stay in the pockets of ownership, not helping the team at all. I know which scenario I prefer.
4) The free agent market dries up by the year, as teams get more aggressive about locking up their young players. The 2010 free agent class includes exactly one impact hitter, in Matt Holliday. His home/road splits are more extreme than Tex’s, he’s older than Tex (and so will be more than a year older as a FA), he plays a position we’re more likely to have covered, and there’s a good chance he’ll have extended with someone by then anyway.
You add it all up, and it comes down to this: the best financial way to improve our chances in 2010-2012 might be to sign Mark Teixeira this winter. He’s not a perfect player… maybe not even worth what he’ll end up getting. But he’s very, very good, and he’d fill a hole for us, and all he’d cost, besides a second-round pick, is money that isn’t earmarked for anything. Second-round picks, though they have value, are worth sacrificing in certain situations.
I wouldn’t want to see a Zito-style contract - Tex isn’t the level of player where you commit to his decline years - but there is a window here where a big contract would make sense. Would Tex sign with us for $90 over four years? Maybe… maybe not. It’s hard to imagine that we could outgun both New York teams for his services. But it might be worth trying all the same.
Wanting us to shoot for Teixeira isn’t about being hell-bent on competing next year. It’s about wanting us to compete sometime in the next four years. At some point, you need a couple really good hitters… this will be one of our only opportunities to land one.
re: "All of our young talent is under team control for several years"
Inside 3 years the Giants need to have considered and decided ( not just put off and ignored) whether they want to extend Cain ,Tim and Sanchez. They need to consider it because though the Giants could probably afford arbitration teams we might wish to trade might not be able to afford arbitration . And if a team is buys out the arbitration years early enough they can usually push back the free agency date back at a reasonable rate.
If the team goes and ties up another 25 mil/year in free agents just how are they suppose to do that?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
I thought the Giants bought out Cain’s arbitration years. Not true?
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
They did. You are correct.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
As mentioned below, Cain is already locked down through his arbitration years… we have him through 2011 if we want him, with no arbitration necessary. There’s no decision to make there, other than the usual one of whether or not to sign him when he becomes a free agent.
I’m not sure of the exact deal with Sanchez’s clock—at any rate, it’s not likely that he’ll be prohibitively expensive.
Lincecum becomes arb-eligible in 2010. He’s not likely to receive more than $5M if we let it go all the way to arbitration, which we probably won’t… Winn and Molina will be off the books by that time, which, even factoring in prospect signings and peripheral free agents, gives us more than enough room to cover him.
The fact that we have talented players who’ll become more expensive does not mean we can’t afford a pricey free agent. We are a wealthy team… we’re only hurting ourselves if we pretend otherwise.
Your skipping over the point that not all the team we might wish to trade with view arbitration the with the same lack of dread this team does.
2011 is – wait for it- 3 years away. Sanchez has about a year less MLB time then Cain. So once again the team will need to make choices in – wait for it- 3 years.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Just because I am up and the soap box here and should be hauled away before ppl think I am Groug talking about Nate playing Third.
As much as this sucks right now the Giants have an great opportunity here in the next 3 years. The could , conceivably, have 5 B+ ( or better) MLB talents and lock them up for reasonable, or better rates, for over 5 years.Maybe as long as a decade. If they can achieve that and because this is larger market it would place them in awesome shape. But to do that the Giants need to not hand cuff themselves with much more unproductive payroll (or roster slots) to veteran over the next 3 years.
Think of it 5 B+ or better MLB players ( 1/5) of the roster. What looks to be mostly self supplying pitching help for another 4-5 roster slots. It could happen real easy and this is not even the pie in the sky best case scenario.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Lincecum is not likely to receive more than $5M?
Given the way he is developing, he’s very likely going to get Miguel Cabrera / Ryan Howard type arby awards. He’s already arguably the best pitcher in MLB.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
All good points. The problem is that Teixeira has all but said he wants to stay on the east coast, which means the Giants only real chance to get him is to over pay him Zito-style, hoping the $$ will be too much to walk away from.
I highly, highly doubt Tex goes for a 4 year contract, not when the Mets, Orioles and Braves of the world will be offering 6 year type deals. His whole career as a Boras guy has been top dollar. He made a huge bonus in the draft and will likely go for big bucks as a free agent; if he gives anyone a hometown discount it’s going to be one of his actual hometowns, Baltimore or Atlanta. If the Giants pay him what he and his agent Boras are likely asking for we’ll have a Todd Helton situation on our hands, and no Coors stadium to help pad his stats.
I don’t argue that we shouldn’t go for free agents, and totally agree about it getting harder as teams lock up players long-term, but I also don’t want to throw more money that we can swallow if things go Zito at guys who can’t sustain or beat their career peaks, and I think Tex is that guy. Burdening a young team (talking 2011 Giants) with a declining player with an untradeable contract is the last thing this team should be doing, IMO. Tex would help the Giants tread water in 2009-2010, but beyond that… I’m not sold. And, not every young player is capitulating to the trend of signing long-term deals. Howard, Fielder, the younger Upton, etc. are among many who may test the market right when the Giants will be in a good position to sink free-agent dollars. (Mind, I’m not arguing for any of those guys, just naming names.) It’s not Teixeira or bust.
Re: throwing money at the draft/international, valid points, however I disagree with your bolded “can’t.” I think a portion of that $20m can be spent, if we say a) with the money we can sign everyone we want to sign in the 2009 draft, regardless of bonus concerns for the next 2 years, b) scout areas where we traditionally may have been weak, c) retain scouts and coaching talent that we may not have been able to in the past, esp. abroad and d) sink money into our Latin America development. In the last three years we’ve signed two bonus babies for higher sums than some of our NL West rivals can offer, and I highly doubt signing the guys we want for 1-3 years in the draft will forever harm our ability to sign future talent (esp. if we get competitive and drop lower in the draft and that $15-20m we had for 3-5 picks is concentrated on 1-2 a la the Tigers, Sox and Yanks).
Agree to disagree, I guess. I just don’t think a big free agent is the way to go in 2009 unless he’s going to be a difference maker for at least 60% of his contract, and I don’t think Tex, Furcal or Dunn are that guy. (Though I think Dunn is the likliest, esp if he can transition to 1B.)
Proud new parent of Mr. Buster Posey... you know, if he signs and stuff.
by GiantsFanInExile on Jun 20, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with the basics of what you’ve outlined. The goal right now should be to acquire elite talent—whether it be by trade, free agency, the draft, foreign talent, whatever.
I’m skeptical that Teixiera is practical, though. He’s from the East Coast, and I think the Yankees, Braves and perhaps others will end up pushing the cost beyond what makes sense for the Giants.
The concept is sound. Look at the Tigers. They turned it around pretty quickly, signing top-notch talent rather than waiting for every prospect to make it up.
Let’s get good players however we can.
Speaking of the Tigers
Speaking of the Tigers, why didn’t the Giants trade for Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco as the Tigers did? The Tigers got two future All-Stars for peanuts.
I think Furcal is the guy that will get signed. Sabes has never shown interest in mashing 1B like Tex, and he probably won’t sign in SF. Also he will probably get like 8 years. He’s a good player though.
Giants really have zero SS options for the few years. So I would guess Furcal for 5/80M. Heck, he might sign for 10 years, he’s 12 years younger than Vizquel.
I think they will find a short-term patch for 2B/3B. Maybe more Joe Castle.
Texiera + Furcal healthy for 2009 probably does make this team at least in the mix for the playoffs. But they need a Texiera class bat, and there aren’t very many.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
5/80M?
Really? His current contract was 3/39M and that was a big overbid (the next best offer was 4/38M). I know salaries have gone up, but he hasn’t been that kind of player since 2006.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
Eh,
Just a WAG. I had to actually double check that he only signed a 3-year contract! But it makes sense, since the money was the same… he might have been overpaid for for a shorter time.
He gets paid almost 16M in 2008. Even with the injury, if he finishes the season strong he’s not taking a pay cut. 5/80 now seems low. I would guess more like 4/80 or 5/100.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
you're talking about Furcal? i dont think anyone's going to pay him $20 M
based on his 2007 and inability to stay healthy, i wouldnt go more than $12-13 max..
If
If the Giants could sign Dunn, Teixeira and Furcal - and if those guys could stay healthy - they could indeed contend next season. And likely successfully so, as well.
I don’t paying $75 million per season to that trio along with Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand should be a problem, do you? :)
I’m joking, of course. You already said it wouldn’t be practical to sign all three. But it does show just how far away the Giants are from being a truly good team.
2012.
I agree, they are far away
But 2012 seems a little extreme to me. It very well could end up being that long. But I think it likely they get it done by 2010 or 2011
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
I would put the date of Giants contention at "date of Sabean firing + 2 years"
or thereabouts.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Brian
Brian has actually done a nice job of rebuilding the Giants with prospects beginning with the drafting of Tim Lincecum in 2006. I am far from a fan of Brian’s - due to his lateness in addressing the farm system and his horrendous moves at the major league level since 2002 - but I am quite pleased with his drafting and Dominican signings over the past two years and two weeks.
The Last Year Of Cain's Contract Is 2011
Targeting 2012 as the first season to return to competativeness is a sure fire way to become the new Pirates of the NL.
by giantsrainman on Jun 20, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Or, more simply, the new Pirates.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep. Four-year rebuilding plans aren’t actually plans… smart teams can reload in two years and sometimes one.
If we think we’re going to be good in 2012 because of two teenagers in low-A, we’re beyond doomed.
Nothing wrong with four years
There is nothing wrong with a four-year rebuilding plan—if it is a good one. I would much prefer that to a quick fix that results in a decent but not highly competitive team more quickly, but limits the upside of the next decade.
2012 includes Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Brian Wilson, Alex Hinshaw, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Henry Sosa, Clayton Tanner, Ben Snyder, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Angel Villalona, Nick Noonan, Manny Burriss, Conor Gillaspie, Freddie Lewis, Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker.
It certainly doesn’t rely on just two teenagers in low-A.
Not all those players will be around, of course, but they or the players they are traded for should provide a large nucleus of a darn good team. If all the prospects flame out, of course, it wouldn’t be very good. But if a handful DO come through in a big way, the nucleus not only for 2012 but for the decade should be in place.
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned next year’s draft choice, which almost certainly will be top-10 for the fourth straight season and might be top-5 for the second year in a row.
It doesn't have to be 4 years
That’s an incredibly long time. There is no team in the league that shouldn’t be competitive in four years. So take your four and subtract this year and you get 2011. I think that is the very latest we can expect to contend. Anything longer and we are just sucking.
I am sticking with 2010 as a realistic year to seriously contend. I do believe, and that was the point of this post, that 2009 is doable with smart moves.
2012 is so far away that it makes no sense at all.
If you really want to get strange, say 2014, because Zito will be gone by then and we can’t contend with that horrible of a move stinking up the clubhouse.
Or…we get two good bats this offseason and plop them in the lineup and Cain, Timmy and Dirty all pitch even better next year than this and Zito gets something back and has an average year. That’s it and we contend. Is it really that hard to imagine?
I don’t believe that Zito is shot. I don’t see him ever being an ace again, but he definitely can be a league average starter. He also would look a lot better on a team that scored a run a game more than they do now.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Let us know
Please let us know the specifics of your plan for the Giants to be competitive in 2009. If you already did so and I missed it, please humor me with a quick outline.
So, the Giants can contend if they sign three of the five top free agents on the market
I’m amazed no one has called you on this yet. Even in the exceptionally unlikely event that the Giants were able to find cash for all three of them, other teams are actually going to be trying to sign them too. The Giants are not the only team that is trying to improve its lineup next season.
The odds of landing all three are infinitesimal.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I was hoping
I think I did call him on that—although perhaps I did so only in my mind and not in cyberspace. When I asked him what is plan was, I was hoping it wasn’t the plan that it is, which as you point out, has virtually no chance of happening.
How can the Giants afford to pay Dunn, Furcal, Teixeira, Zito and Rowand something in excess of $75 million per season?
When someone proposes adding one player to the mix, there might be a chance. If it takes two to make the team competitive, the odds of its happening become quite small. If it is three, it is almost certainly a pipe dream.
With most of the 30 teams interested in signing free agents, what are the Giants’ odds of signing perhaps the top three—even if they COULD afford to do so?
Part of what makes the Barry Zito signing so devastating is that it takes away so much financial flexibility. Paying similar amounts to Barry Bonds took away a little flexibility too, but it added so much value to the lineup that it was well worth doing.
When the Giants offered the biggest contract to a pitcher that had ever been offered, they should at least have made sure they were offering it to a great, not merely good and declining, pitcher. Clearly the Giants have no understanding of sabermetrics. That they need to indeed have far more than they do is a $126 million lesson they will be paying for for years.
I disagree
I’m not opposed to improving the Giants NOW. For instance, I was in favor of the signing of Aaron Rowand because Aaron is young enough to still be a contributor in 2012. Plus, he will be in the last year of his contract and should be motivated.
What I AM opposed to is moves made to benefit the short term to the exclusion of the long term. That would include trading needed prospects in a bid for a short-term fix. It would include signing pitchers headed downhill to contracts of over $100 million. Oh,wait.
That would have to include the money well from ownership has dried up.
The is part of why K.C. and the Pirates have had the streak they have. Their Gm’s were ( signs might point to things having changed recently) reduced to trying to time the arrival of minor league graduates so enough talent is on the parent club at one time for a couple years.
Before people bring up the Marlins remember the original owner sunk a lot of money into the first Marlins postseason payroll before he broke up that team , ala Connie Mac. As adept as Billy Bean is I wonder if he has the same level of success in a division with more teams.
Lets be honest ( and encase someone thinks I am taking a swipe at A’s) during the "good" years of Sabean’s reign going into any given season there was usually only 1-2 teams you would consider extremely likely to contend for the division title and that help the Giants as well. One of those team have unhealthy run, club house problems or you could stack your team talent so that lined up against their weakness and you’re a lot closer to the top then if you were in a deeper division were your rooster screw ups have a bigger chance to be exposed.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Recommendations
Why is it that the only posts that actually get recommendations any more are the minor lines? It looks like it is the same 3 ppl who rec those everyday. As such they stay at the top, when they are perhaps the least involving of any threads posted.
This one has had a TON of responses and debate and zero recs.
Not trying to build up my own post, I just think it is odd how the system works. In a day or so this will fade into obscurity due to new posts above it even though it is still actively getting responses. Meanwhile there will be a minor lines post with almost no responses that sits up top for a few more days.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 10:31 PM PDT reply actions
I don't understand
I don’t think I have ever recommended a post because I don’t know what it means to do so.
If you look at the front page,
you will see recommended posts. Below the original post is a thing that says “rec” if you click it, you recommend it. If it gets enough recs, the post will be moved to the recommended section and stay there for a little longer. I think until it gets bumped by other recommended posts.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 20, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
So
So you’re recommending we take action? :)
in general, yes. if it is a post that you want to see discussed, then recommend it. if not, don’t. it’s kind of sad that we’ll have things stick around for a while that don’t get much discussion while others will get tons of posts but fade away because no one recs them.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 22, 2008 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions
hmm - i dont really pay attention to the recommended list
i just go thru the recent posts in order
Why is it that the only posts that actually get recommendations any more are the minor lines? It looks like it is the same 3 ppl who rec those everyday. As such they stay at the top, when they are perhaps the least involving of any threads posted.
Because no one liked this post? Or maybe it’s because we’ve had a million of these types of posts? I’m not trying to be sarcastic, but I’ve seen a bunch of other posts get “recommended” not just the minor league lnes.
If no one liked the post, why does it have over 150 responses?
I went back through all the posts from June and there are only a few with as many responses and only one of those got recommended. But for some reason, every day, the minor lines are recommended and rarely get over 30 responses. Sometimes they go up to around 50. Looking at the ones that are up right now, they all have 3 recs which tells me it is the same three people.
I think the most recs I saw was 5. I get the feeling very few people actually do rec anything. Anyway, shouldn’t the posts that garner the most interest be the ones that stay around? If people stop responding, let them fade away, but the current system is pretty bunk.
This isn’t a true forum, but it would be nice if things were structured like the typical one. Usually any time someone responds it bumps the post up to the top.
Meh, it doesn’t really matter in the long run, it just strikes me as strange.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 21, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I think a lot of us are in the midst of reevaluating our take on the Front Office.
If Sabean goes into August with no new over 30 MLB vets I know, personally speaking, will nail a lid back onto the barrel of tar and put back in the shed. Near the front mind you were I can get at it easily. Still but it will be a large step towards being better then Bavasi in that he might be able use more then 1 style to assemble a roster. As I have said else were if he actually has a net lose over 30 MLB vets in august I might have to restrict my anger to Dodger baiting and games of Kick The Bud.
But the ting is he has 2 large hurdles to handle before August 1st. He has to realize distance from the front of the division is worthless if your squad has more then 1 glaring flaw. And this task will be very hard for him based on his past. And the what happens when Roberts comes of the D.L. So I, and probably a lot of other, wait.
Or said another way is Fred Lewis and Bowker happening because Sabean has no choice ( short of trading Cain, Tim or Wilson)? Can his clubs allow current "C" level veteran talent to lose playing time to "C" level "rookies"?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
i think its only those same 3 people that actually pay att. to and bother to reccomend posts
150 responses tells a lot more – but im not sure why you would care anyway….
just post what you want to….
Well if I thought we had reached some new (or different) conclusions or new revelations I would recommend this post.
I will confess to recommending Minor lines fairly frequently. I do it because is a concise snapshot of what’s going on in the farm. I find I read it, and re read it, much more often then I comment in it.
I also have a feeling this post could ( or should ) be active for the next month or so as we maul over the front office actions and inactions before the trade dead line.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
The minor lines
Don’t really need to be Rec’ed because how often do you need to look at them more than 1-2 days after they are posted? post them and let them fade in 1-2 days as they become “old news”
However, this thread – which is interesting and still valid – will disappear and cease to be active as soon as another fanpost is made which is too bad.
Just for that, I am going to rec this post :)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Jun 22, 2008 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions
exactly
you said it better than I. but that is exactly the point I was trying to make.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 22, 2008 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Well said.
I decided to take his question starting this branch to mean " what makes readers here recommend as post?" as opposed to assuming his question above was in a whining voice. I was just out lining why I recommend a post. In no way or form was saying it was the only criteria to follow or others should follow. Just it’s the criteria I follow. And since I am disclosing I do recommend other things. Though once the post has like 3 or 4 recommends it has to be real strong before I add to it.
As for being burried and forgotten. Maybe. But I look for these kind of long lived "debates" I think most readers do here as well. As long as we keep it out of the mud.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
I think it reveals your character for the worse to whine about not getting recs. What a douche.
Billy Ripken is not a fuck face
I think it reveals your poor reading comprehension
to think I am whining about not getting recs. asshole.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 21, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
