Hypothetical Theatre
by Grant Brisbee on Jun 19, 2008 12:34 PM PDT
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PrintLet’s say there’s a left-handed pitcher on the Giants. Let’s call him Tossy McDufftapper. Let’s say that he has a two-pronged problem with his pitching:
- His fastball is much, much slower than almost anyone in baseball.
- His control is much, much worse than almost anyone in baseball.
Since we’re surrounded by the velvety curtains of Hypothetical Theatre, let’s pretend that one of these problems can be fixed. Which problem is more likely to be fixed?
Problem one: The fastball
Allow me to use Juan Marichal as an example of McDufftapper’s struggles. That’s the 2008 Juan Marichal, mind you. Is Marichal’s arm injured? As far as we know, it isn’t. Can he still throw 90+? No, he can not. Is there any amount of exercise or training that he could do to get that velocity back? Nope. Sometimes, the human body just can’t throw a fastball the way it used to.
Maybe using a 70-year-old man in the analogy is a little extreme. A better – and much, much more frightening example – is Jim Abbott. Abbott was one of the better left-handed pitchers in the league, and then his velocity dipped. When his velocity dipped, his strikeout rate plummeted. He was able to get through a couple more seasons just fine with his reduced velocity, but it all eventually caught up with him in 1996. He wasn’t hurt at that point; he just wasn’t the same pitcher. Sometimes, the human body just can’t throw a baseball the way it used to.
That was my stock answer until Justin Verlander started having problems earlier this year. Verlander was a triple-digit fastball guy, but he started throwing his fastball in the 80s earlier this year, which would seem to indicate an injury. A couple of mechanical tweaks later, he’s throwing hard again. He hit 97 in his last start against the Giants. Maybe some tweaks can get back the three or four miles that McDufftapper has lost. Hypothetically, of course.
Problem two: The control
Part of the control problem is probably related to the velocity; as in, his stuff is that of a 34th-round draft pick, so he’s trying to spot his pitches as well as humanly possible. But McDufftapper was never a control pitcher. Since we’re munching on hypothetical Junior Mints here in Hypothetical Theatre, let’s pretend that this hypothetical pitcher is suddenly blessed with Madduxian control. Could he succeed? Mostly likely, yes. Lefties don’t need an above-average, or even average, fastball if they have good off-speed stuff and fantastic location. That combo is what kept Jesse Orosco in the game from Taft to Bush.
But it isn’t as if young pitchers suddenly morph into control artists with experience. Young pitchers can move from unmistakably awful control to acceptable (Jeff Nelson always comes to mind, but now we have a fine example with Alex Hinshaw), and sometimes average control pitchers become otherworldly (Pedro Martinez, for example), but control isn’t a given to improve with experience. Nolan Ryan was walking almost 100 batters a year when he was 40, and control problems always kept Bobby Witt from being anything more than average.
The point of the above: Sometimes the human body will always be unable to throw a baseball where the thrower wants it to go. It depends on the pitcher.
So have at it. What’s easier to fix, control or velocity?
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Neither, it’s time to tar and feather Zito and run him out of town.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 19, 2008 12:38 PM PDT reply actions
neither
..that said, I honestly believe that Zito has never actually learned how to throw. If you watch his motion, he mostly does everything right, then sort of ‘pushes’ the ball out there. The human kinetic chain that throws things fast just can’t whip through its full range that way. So it would theoretically seem possible that, regardless of what Zito has lost, he could learn to throw harder.
The problem, of course, is that his control is bad already. Changing his entire approach to the ball might garner him those missing mph, but at the cost of a very different motion. I could see him getting back up to 90, but never seeing the strike zone again. That’s not much of an improvement, I think.
Have you been reading Paull Nyman’s articles on the Hardball Times?
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 19, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Jim Abbott? Hadn’t thought about him in a long time. How about a hand for Jim Abbott, everyone?
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
I'm Goofus McPenisbutter, I'll be here all week !
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
Well, I know nothing of pitching
But it would seem to me that velocity would be easier to fix through mechanics, which could be a shorter fix then actually learning to locate your pitches.
Then again, how about we keep booing him until he retires and voids the contract :P
(i don’t actually mean that, but it wouldn’t kill me if it happened that way)
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
Tossy McDufftapper should start throwing with the real arm he was born to use. Enough of this ambidextrous BS.
Either that, or he just needs a slumpbuster. Just keep him from hanging out with R. Kelly as a precaution.
Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on Jun 19, 2008 12:51 PM PDT reply actions
maybe this guy is injured
and is hiding it from the team because of his not so hypothetically huge contract.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 19, 2008 12:53 PM PDT reply actions
Neither?
I’m almost convinced that Zito is either hurt or his arm/shoulder is disintegrating.
For the doomsayers, consider this.
Right now Zito is making hitters swing and miss at his pitches at nearly the same rate as Carlos Silva, who’s game plan is to purposely let hitters make contact with his sinker.
Name StS% Cntc% Silva 8% 89% Zito 10% 86%
Sts = Strikes Swinging Percentage
Cntc = Contact Percentage
Barry Zito is Carlos Silva without the groundball tendencies, great control, or ability to throw past 6 innings in a game.
He has to be hurt, right? It’s amazing how bad he’s pitching right now. Don’t expect Peterson to come in either. According to a Buster Olney insider article, Sabean doesn’t think it would be fair to Rags. The Chron article this morning cast doubt on Peterson as well, something about how he’s still with the Mets for another year and any work he’d do with Zito would essentially be free.
Here is the quote on Peterson for anyone that missed it.
Neither Zito nor Bochy would address talk of Rick Peterson joining the Giants to tutor Zito. Peterson, fired by the Mets this week, was Zito’s pitching coach during his heyday in Oakland, but his Mets contract runs through 2009, so he wouldn’t likely accept a “special instructor” job unless he were assured a full-time on-field position in the near future.His contract is guaranteed, and any money he’d make from another club would be taken off the top of his Mets’ salary, meaning he’d be working for free elsewhere. In other words, he might not be in a hurry to accept a secondary job.
It seems Zito and the Giants are left to figure out their problems on their own.
McDuffTapper... I see what you did there.
How about this then:
1) Giants put Zito on the DL with “inflammation of the 90-mph-throwing-flexor”. If that sounds too made-up then how about saying he has “bats in the belfry”? That would totally be believable.
2) During his time on the DL, with lots of time on his hands and nothing to do, Zito decides to go on a pilgrimage to wherever Rick Peterson is. The two are reunited, and once again Barry soaks in all the wisdom and zen of this great pitching sage. I picture a sort of Dagobah-type place, all swampy with snakes and lizards and bugs crawling around. And Zito straps Peterson on his back and runs around doing somesaults in the air and lifting cars off the ground through psychokinesis. Eventually, after he resists the urge to return to San Francisco where his teammates are suffering through a long losing streak, Zito completes his training, once again attaining the power of the pitch. Next thing you know, Zito’s popping off 93-mph fastballs with pinpoint accuracy.
3) In deepest gratitude, Zito pays Peterson a million bucks.
4) Zito returns to the Giants and pitches really well.
5) The end.
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
that sounds pretty similar to the plot of most soft porn Cinemax movies I have seen
except, of course, the protagonist is not a pitcher but a woman with some corporate job and the mentor is a woman of extreme sexual enlightenment. But the basic premise is correct and thus I find that to be a great idea.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 19, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
what is disturbing about this
is that someone would actually watch enough of a soft-core cinemax pr0n movie to get the plot.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
Speaking of Dagobah, quoth Yoda:
“Control! Control! You must learn control!”
(Empire Strikes Back)
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on Jun 20, 2008 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm confused
Why is everyone talking about Barry Zito when Grant’s article was about hypothetical pitcher Tossy McDuffTapper?
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 19, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Sabean
I like how he is peaking around Zito’s shoulder like “Hey guys, what’s going on? What’s happening? Can I see?”
Only 900 games until the end of Zito's contract
It suddenly strikes me that Brian Sabean shares some small resemblance to Ralph Barbieri.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 3:23 AM PDT up reply actions
BUT THERE ARE NO NAMES ON OUR HOME JERSEYS!!! WHAT’S GOING ON???
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 3:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Also the name would be parallel with the number too. Something strange is going on.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 20, 2008 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Nope, the only thing I photoshopped was removing Bochy’s facial hair.
Actually it looks like Sabean is trying to lean back away from Tossy like he farted or something.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Jun 20, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Brian Sabean is a little man, isn’t he?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 20, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Who’s gonna turn down a Junior Mint? It’s chocolate, it’s peppermint… It’s delicious!
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
Not a fan. I’m more of a Milk Dud guy.
(So as to beat y’all to the punch; Mrs. Goofus agrees with the “Dud part.)
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
Take away the "Milk" part, and... Oh...
Mrs. Tobias likes putting her Milk Duds in her popcorn at the movies. It’s actually quite tasty, but murder on the dental work.
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
Goofus I see you are in Campain Trail form.
Notice he never says he would turn down or deny a Jr. mint entry into his mouth. Only he pefers Milk Duds. Well done.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
I don’t know if Goofus has met the item that he would deny entry into his mouth.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 19, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Control
Both velocity and control can be buggers to fix, but control is the easier of the two. Improving velocity usually involves a change in mechanics, and pitchers have a hard time changing their mechanics after years of pitching the same way. Changing mechanics can even be dangerous, even if the mechanics are improved, since changing muscle memory may make a body more vulnerable to injury.
It can be kind of like moving off the interstate. You may avoid a big traffic jam, but the roads may not be as smooth.
The easiest way to fix control is to shed some velocity… oh wait… that’s not going to work
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 20, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
But can he still get chicks?
McDufftapper! I haven’t seen him in photographs with starlets in some time.
I don’t know anything about pitching mechanics, but the Jim Abbott comparison is a scary and fitting one, statistically. I am prepared for worst case scenario at this point. I tried to stay optimistic, but I am preparing myself for the prospect that he is done. If he can ever be an average starter again, it will feel like the biggest escape since Houdini.
No sex for ANYONE until he wins 5 in a row?
Get ready for a barren period straight out of “Children of Men”.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
For me that's nothing
Now, replace “sex” with “Flamin’ Hot Funyuns” and then I’ll have issues.
Anagram of "Giants pitcher Matt Cain" = TRAGIC MAN, ISN'T PATHETIC
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Jun 19, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
They have flamin’ hot funyuns???!!!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 19, 2008 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Why don’t you just say no sex and eliminate the part that won’t happen anyway.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 19, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Tossy McDufftapper
The odds are 50 to 1 that Tossy McDufftapper will ever regain his stuff; so in order to make the most of a bad situation, the team should tell Tossy that he is going 9 every time out. They would take the loss, but at least they would rest the bullpen and who knows, when Tossy’s ERS breaks 11.00 he might even be persuaded to negotiate a buy out of his contract.
I have no idea what’s going on but wtf is this that I’m finally back where I can watch baseball and there’s no game on tonight? :(
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
It’s good to know there’s one thing I can count on.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
Two things:
Zito sucks AND that is not going to change.
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on Jun 20, 2008 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Welcome back, jponry!
You should have stuck around the Continent for Euro 2008. Much more enthralling than the Gigantes lately.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
Welcome back jponry! At least you get Cain today. Instead of no game yesterday, you could have had Zito…
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 20, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
i'm no fantasy baseball guy but...
this can’t be good..
Fantasy Comparison:
Fran Rouge 834
Jonathan Paperweight 827.5
Marry Rivers 778
General Sherman 763
Tossy McDufftapper -47
I think
maybe the fact that zito is “pushing the ball” like was brought out in that HBT article has something to do with his loss of velocity. I can’t break down his motions like Nyman did, but I’ve read multiple stories that say Zito has been trying to change his mechanics. IDK if that’s the problem, but I do know that I don’t trust Rags to fix whatever’s wrong.
Upon further review
so, after my extremely unscientific method of comparing mlb.tv clips of 2008 Zito to 2006 Zito, I can tell you that his mechanics are pretty fucked up. I don’t know if that’s a result of him changing them or what, but 2006 Zito was a hell of a lot more forceful with his release, and he followed through towords 3B quite a bit more than 2008 Zito is.
This is me looking at it side-by-side in live motion, so it is definitely not to be taken as anything more than an uneducated guess, but it looks to me like he’s just throwing the ball differently than he used to.
Nope. He's signalling his pitches.
It’s so obvious. Every batter can plainly see him go up on the mound and, very deliberately, put his foot on the rubber. They know immediately that he is going to pitch, and they just wait to cream it. The secret’s out.
I freely admit I know nothing about pitching mechanics, other than it’s an interesting read. Everyone is talking about his mechanics, and he does tweak things alot.
Maybe he should try old school pitching, like Grant mentioned, the mechanics of Juan Marichal. Instead of just the arm and shoulder, incorporate the rest of the body.
But what the hell do I know? I already said…nothing.
I can only imagine what disaster would befall the world if Barry Zito adopted a high leg kick.
I imagine it would start a hurricane in India… or something.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 20, 2008 3:21 AM PDT up reply actions
This spring
This spring at the appropiately-named spring training, I showed my son how when Tim throws, he pushed off his back foot, pushing it along the ground a distance of perhaps a couple of feet. When Barry throws, he quickly picks up his back foot rather than pushing off with it.
People got upset with Barry when he experimented with a longer stride his first time out in his first spring training with the Giants. One guy even points to that as the source of his demise. I saw it as a realization by Barry - even if clearly not by the Giants - that he was heading downhill and needed to make changes.
Although it’s tough to change mechanics mid-career, I think Barry had the right idea. I would like to see Rick Peterson work with Barry’s Zen—and Chris Lincecum to work with his mechanics.
I love questions like these...
but I’m going to go with velocity because control can be both mechanical and mental and the mental thing can be harder to fix than the mechanics of a pitcher.
Velocity can also effect a pitcher mentally, but it is mainly mechanical.
Remember, there are many ways to add velocity through mechanics, so you have more options to tackle your mission of improving velocity.
For control, you can firm up the front side as your shoulder begins to open which allows a pitcher to have a consistent release point, but much of it involves being able to repeat the delivery consistently and this requires somebody who is at least a pretty good athlete.
www.baseball-intellect.com
"luckily"
the contract is so long, that Zito will have ample time to fix his delivery, break it again, fix it again, and then break it. Probably he will then Livan us after we get rid of him in 2012.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
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