A Brave New Brian?
by JakeS on Jun 13, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
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PrintIt's been a while since one of my marathon fanposts around here - in fact, this may be my first since all this snazzy new stuff was around, but the last month or so have really revitalized my interest in the Giants.
I was, and probably still am, one of the biggest Brian Sabean detractors around here - I was more or less furious when we re-signed him and dismissive of the idea that Magowan was as much a part of the problem. I still don't see where people were getting that idea at the time, but his track record in the short time since Magowan's departure is so radically improved that I'm starting to consider the notion.
Our farm system has taken a huge boost from these last two drafts - five of Grant's recently posted top ten were '07 or '08 amateurs, and if we do sign Rafael Rodriguez that will make six. I was critical of our overdrafting position players with some of our picks in '07, and I would still have loved to have shelled out more money but with the numbers Alderson and Bumgarner are putting up in the minors I think there is the ammunition to defend the assertion that Sabean simply thought they were the best available talents when he took them. Drafting Posey this season was huge - I love me some Justin Smoak and college first basemen are beasts, but when you have a guy who could have gone #1 overall and draws Joe Mauer comparisions I think you have to take the best available talent and I've seen multiple sources cite the Giants as having the best draft in '08 as a result.
At the major league level things haven't been quite as drastic - Nate Schierholtz is still not on the squad and Rich Aurilia is playing every day, but Sabean has made some noise about dealing the veterans at the deadline and with the apparent shift in organizational philosophy this time I might actually believe him. Don't hurt me again Brian.
At this point I'm willing to entertain the idea that Brian Sabean really has learned some new tricks and can combine those with the organization's strengths to be maybe a Kenny Williams quality GM - capable of making some very savvy moves but also prone to the occasional inexplicably stupid ones. He's got some upside though, as I see it, depending on how he handles this year's trading deadline.
The trading deadline has always been Sabean's weakest link, in my opinion. We never sell when we should sell and we're not very good at buying. Even in our more non-competitive seasons, be it from lack of interest or overpricing we've never really succeeded at dealing the veterans but I think there's real potential this season if Sabes is savvy about it. We need to deal Durham for sure - he's hitting, he's blocking Velez who is a marginal prospect but does meet the rebuilding mantra; he's more likely to be on the next good Giants team than Durham is. We need to deal Randy Winn - he's hot and he's blocking Nate Schierholtz who absolutely must be in the lineup come August 1st, no excuses. Aurilia should go if we can get anything worthwhile for him, and in theory the same goes for overachieving scrub Jose Castillo though I can't see us getting any value for him. The same goes for Omar Vizquel, I know, I know, he's Omar, we love him, but this team needs the cojones to deal fan favorites when that's best for the team and they can take some lessons from the guys across the bay for that one. The bullpen should be open season too - keep Wilson, Hinshaw (his upside is more than his trade value at this point), and the injured Valdez but make everyone else available to sweeten deals and try to get some decent return on Winn/Durham.
Molina should be available but dealing him isn't mandatory - I'd love to see us get a real prospect in return for him as he won't be on the next good Giants team - most of our scenarios for success have Posey as the position player centerpiece in a few seasons. On the other hand, I understand the argument that we have to keep some fans in the seats and even if I place no credence on the veteran catcher - young pitcher theory we always have next season to deal him at the deadline or let him walk for the draft pick.
If Sabean can really prove that he's cleansed himself of his veteran obsession and if he can dust of his old trading skills and move some contracts and even get some real return on these deals then maybe he can make this team good again, and not fleeting veteran-reliant good like in the past but good for some years to come, with a pitching core that's already there and a lineup that supplements homegrown talent with a couple of free agents instead of the other way around. If our regular lineup in August looks something like this:
C Molina
1B Bowker
2B Velez
3B McClain/Castillo or Aurilia if were unable to deal with them
SS Burriss/Omar if he's still around
LF Lewis
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz
Then maybe Sabean really will be the architect that can put the new Giants team together.
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I dunno..
I will wait to see what he trades for before I give a thumbs up to “turned over a new leaf”. I mean, I still don’t buy that he couldn’t have rebuilt the farm system WHILE he had Bonds and was trying to “win now”.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
It’s completely foundless, but I can’t help feeling that the only real difference in Sabean since he signed the extension is that he’s actually, you know, trying now. It doesn’t feel like he put a whole lot of effort into those 3-5 years prior to the latest extension.
Again, completely foundless.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 13, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
It's kind of hard to rebuild
when your not being allocated the budget to rebuild a barren farm system. And when your trying to win now, by forfeiting your 1st round and 2nd round picks by signing Michael Tucker, your actually saving money signing Tucker to 3.5 million, that you would probably spend on 2 guys who might never play or make an impact for your team.
I’ve been a big Sabean supporter, and have pretty much detested Magowan since all of his meddling since 2003. I don’t buy the notion that you go from being a top 5 GM in the league to one of the worst overnight. Sabean has mostly made much better moves than he’s made bad ones. And now that Barry is gone, and Magowan has stepped back, I’m not at all surprised at the improvements that have been made in a short time.
Forfeiting the draft picks to sign Tucker is the least defensible of any Sabean move ever – even Zito at least projected to be a regular. There is absolutely no way that a first round pick, even with the chance involved, is less valuable than to the franchise than MICHAEL TUCKER. Not a chance.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
right...
because Sabean was the one who set the draft budget. I forgot he was the owner too….
Well...
The Giants spent a little over $1.5M on bonuses for the first 7 picks they made. Then they made an additional 26 signings outside of the 10th round (I can’t find what they paid for these picks). So, it’s not like they didn’t spend money on the draft.
Owning one's own actions
Brian clearly didn’t set his own draft budget. But as the top baseball mind (at least presumably) in the organization, he should have been fighting for enough money to get the job done. By not doing so, he was only cutting his (and the organization’s) throat.
I believe one must either blame Brian for poor decisions are blame him for allowing some of them to be crammed down his throat. It’s not as if Brian couldn’t have found another GM job if he didn’t like his working conditions in SF.
Exactamundo!
Look, I don’t care to nail Sabean up or anything, I’ve always respected him as a person. But simply put, he’s in charge of the baseball decisions. And he’s a big enough man that if he thought he was a puppet I can pretty well guarantee that he would have said sayonara and taken off.
I stand by the belief that Magowan is probably one of the least meddlesome owners in baseball. Other owners are far worse, and those who aren’t often don’t care enough to be bothered (I’d bet). But regardless, you cannot blame baseball decisions on someone else just because you want to believe it was someone else’s fault.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
IMO
IMO there was absolutely no valid reason Brian Sabean couldn’t have rebuilt the Giants farm system while he was building a winning team from 1997 through 2004. His failure to do so has been by far his biggest weakness IMO, even bigger than allowing Jeff Kent, Bill Mueller, Livan Hernandez and Russ Ortiz to leave after the 2002 season, even bigger than the whole A.J. Pierzynski debacle, even bigger than (but not entirely unrelated to) intentionally giving up high draft picks, and, yes, even bigger than wasting an eighth of a billon dollars on a pitcher who was rather clearly headed downhill, at least clearly to those with even the most rudimentary of sabermetric skills.
Unfortunately Brian believes no in sabermetrics but in Sabeanmetrics. Sabeanmetrics say that the Giants need to improve their OBP, but Jose Vizcaino is such a gamer it doesn’t matter. Sabeanmetrics say Barry Zito was a Cy Young Award winner in 2002, so why can’t he be one again?
Theo Epstein took over the Red Sox after the 2002 season and even last year he had signed several players who aided in their World Series Championship run. In that same time Brian had drafted only Tim Lincecum of consequence, and he got Tim only because the Giants had sucked the previous season. Theo still got his guys drafting deep in the draft.
Thankfully, Brian seems to have turned over a new leaf. (Drafting high in the draft can help with that.) But why did it take him nearly a decade to figure it out? Especially when he had such a great reputation with prospects when he came from the Yankees?
Umm
You can’t really compare Epstein and Sabean. They work in 2 completely different teams. The Red Sox have had the budget to sign very talented players in both the draft and Latin America, that the Giants aren’t able to sign. The Red Sox can take a player that falls to the 3rd round and sign him way over slot and prevent him from going to school.
I don’t know how anyone who has been paying attention to this team can think that it was Sabean’s bright idea to sign the likes of Barry Zito, when for his entire tenure he has been about getting CHEAP pitching talent. Either via development or trades. Trading for the likes of Kirk Reuter, Livan Hernandez, Jason Schmidt, Scott Eyre etc. And developing pitching talent. Like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz etc.
Hell they even traded for cheap positional players back in the day with J.T. Snow and Jeff Kent, who helped to provide a foundation to build with around Barry Bonds. A trade similar to that of which Pierzynski was supposed to bring, but it backfired. Sabean isn’t a dumb guy, he knows baseball. He just made a terrible mistake in doing his bosses bidding for a few years and it had awful results.
Zito
You could well be right about the Zito signing decision not being Brian’s. Heck, maybe the Giants told him that if he signed Zito he would be re-hired; if he didn’t, he would have to take his chances.
But even if the Zito signing wasn’t his, here are the problems I have with Brian (although he seems to be doing well with his drafting now):
. Didn’t improve the farm system for nearly a decade before finally getting the belated message.
. Allowed Jeff Kent, Billy Mueller, Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez to leave after 2002. Also Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton, both of whom played well in 2003 and continued their careers through at least last season.
. Signed Neifi Perez the year after Baseball Prospectus calculated Neifi was the worst hitter in the major leagues.
. Not only traded for A.J. Pierzynski, but gave up three good prospects and then wound up with NOTHING a year later when he allowed A.J. to walk without compensation.
. Intentionally gave up high draft choices, taking away his best chance to help the Giants’ minor league problems.
. Signed Dave Roberts to replace Moises Alou. Like THAT was likely to happen.
. Didn’t lock up Tim Lincecum a year ago when the asking price might have been more realistic.
. Compromised his professional integrity to the extent that he allowed others to force decisions down his throat.
Thanks, Roger!
I was too angry, and sleepy, to reply intelligently.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
2002
Allowed Jeff Kent to leave? Kent didn’t even want to come back. It was pretty much a forgone conclusion for all of 2002, that it would be Kent’s last season in SF after the whole motorcycle debacle in spring training.
Here’s an article from June of 2002 that says just that. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2002/06/30/SP199904.DTL
Despite that the Giants still offered him arbitration and made an offer to him in December of 02.
If you want an answer for some of the other moves, I’d go read this…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/01/30/SP194096.DTL
Magowan talks about how the Giants only made about 1 million dollars in profit in 02. So that might be a good indicator for why they were so fucking cheap following the World Series. And pimps all the new signings as well.
Neifi Perez sucked, but he at least had a purpose as a defensive bench player.
Pierzynski I agree with, it was stupid to let him walk after a year and not even offer arbitration.
Again, pretty sure it wasn’t Sabean’s idea to give up draft picks when Magowan is the one crying about being poor.
Roberts sucks yes. The Giants went after both Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano, neither wanted to come here. I’d rather get a failure like Roberts at 15 mill over 3 years, than what we would have payed for the failures in Lee and Soriano who are making way more than either of them are worth. Same can be said for other shitty OF free agents that year in Gary Matthews Jr and Juan Pierre. Who had both been linked to SF as well.
Lincecum might not want to sign an extension, you ever considered that? Not every young player is going to sign an extension, especially if they are confident in their abilities to up their market value.
I also agree, that it is sad of him to allow Magowan to force decisions down his throat, but just about every other GM in the game allows this to happen to them as well, and this occurs in all sports, not just baseball. I think its far too easy to make judgments when it comes to the job Sabean has done, when he’s arguably had one of the most complex, and difficult jobs to do in all of baseball during his tenure. And so far it looks like he is doing a decent job rebuilding this team. It’s obvious its a few years too late, but when you have Barry Bonds on your team those are the temptations you’re left with. You can rebuild, when you KNOW you should rebuild, or you can try to reload and win with arguably the greatest player ever before his clock runs out. They chose the ladder, and it didn’t work out, and I’m sure had they decided to rebuild and got rid of Bonds and Bonds had gone onto the Yankees and won a title or some other team and won a title, everyone would have bitched about that too. They were basically damned if you do and damned if they don’t. But from your couch you have all the right answers right?
And also I’m not sure I would say they didn’t improve the farm system. The system was crap, and the pitching was crap when Sabean took over as GM. They put an emphasis on pitching and turned up producing a lot of quality young arms. Some of them haven’t panned out, thanks to injuries or poor work ethic, but others have, whether with the Giants or other teams. And now they’re trying to put a bigger emphasis on producing positional players, after almost 20 years of nothing from the Giants, and so far things seem to be looking up.
But then what?
I’d rather get a failure like Roberts at 15 mill over 3 years, than what we would have payed for the failures in Lee and Soriano who are making way more than either of them are worth.
I think it’s likely that if the Giants had landed Lee or Soriano, they wouldn’t have signed Zito or Bonds. That would have made it a good long run decision,
True that
Zito was like a panic signing (by Magowan) to bring in a big name after Soriano and Lee said no.
Compromised his professional integrity to the extent that he allowed others to force decisions down his throat.
I still have a problem faulting Sabean on this one. You want to Sabean to quit his job in a snit because he disagreed with an owners directive? Then what? How many owners are going to want the services of an insubordinate GMs who’ll quit on you if he doesn’t do what you want and make you look bad in the process?
Pro sports team owners tend to have big egos and think they’re right. You might disagree privately with them, but part of the job is to “close ranks” and present a unified front on decisions. GMs that throw their owners under the bus don’t tend to be too popular in a field where few jobs open up.
If we assume the premise that Magowan ordered the Zito signing and punting of draft picks to be true, I think it points to the problems that arise of having an owner who’s a “fan”. They’re bound to want to spend money on “names” they recognize and ignore less glamorous options.
In the NFL, Dan Snyder comes to mind as a guy who screwed his team over because he got too involved.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
Exactly
At least Snyder has kind of learned from his mistakes to an extent. Jerry Jones had similar problems. Jimmy Johnson disagreed with him and got the can after winning 2 straight Super Bowl’s. And they were chums going back from their days at Arkansas. Jones then pretty much screwed the pooch until he hired Bill Parcells a few years ago, and now he seems to know what he’s doing again (Jones).
With Sabean, I don’t know what else he really could have done. He can pretty much only do what he’s allowed to do, or what he is dictated to do by upper-management.
Brian Cashman has had to put up with similar shit from the Steinbrenner’s over his tenure, but you don’t see him quitting his job there either, and why would he?
I know this is about Brian, but
why Nate in LF and Freddie Lew in RF. Haven’t they been working the reverse so far?
Isn’t Nate known for having a strong arm, too? And isn’t that more valuable in RF?
I imagine it was probably just a typo.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 13, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I like Lewis
I think Nate Schierholtz is a better prospect than Freddie Lewis - but I think that with the vast expanses in right center field at AT&T Park, Freddie’s greater speed plays better out there. Nate does have the much better arm and above-average speed, but neither player takes great routes, and Freddie has more speed to outrun his mistakes - and cover the vast expanses of right center field.
Awesome: You've got Molina leading off in your August 1 lineup! :-)
Good post. I agree with most of what you say, but:
- I think the team should keep Molina, extend him a year and shoot for Posey making it up in 2011.
- I also think they should keep Castillo at 3B unless they’re able to trade for something better (i.e. Winn for Beltre).
- I’d add Sadler to guys I’d keep for the ‘pen
The last thing I’ll take exception with: You say Sabean is bad at draft deadline deals. Without knowing exactly what options have been available to him, I’d say that’s just as, if not more, speculative than us folks that think some of his previous moves were because of undue influence of Magowan.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
I immediately have a couple questions...
1. Peter Magowan is still there, he’s still the MGP. So what’s really changed?
2. What’s Sabean done differently since Magowan announced he isn’t coming back next year?
3. I wouldn’t make it a priority at all to trade Aurilia. He’s probably not getting anything in return for us, and he’s pretty useful as a super sub. Any time a guy is slumping or needs a day off in the infield, you can put Aurilia there for a day or two. Not a bad deal, in my opinion.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
1. True he is still there, but he’s kind of a lame duck now. For the most part Sabean’s totally in control right now. Until Neukom comes up with a bright idea.
2. Spent money on the draft. I don’t have evidence to back this up but I suspect that Magowan devalued the draft and encouraged/forced Sabean to spend most of his budget on on-field talent. Magowan pretty much says here http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter&month=5&year=2008 that he was pusihng the fill in vets around Bonds agenda. Sabean’s history with the Yankees and general experience should not have allowed the farm system to run dry like that for so long due to his own volition..
3. I agree.
by I own a Kayak and I'm not sure why now on Jun 13, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like a lot of hearsay...
I agree that he’s spending a lot of money on the draft this year, and that’s good. But that’s one thing. Only one. Not exactly a history. As for the Magowan stuff, every time I hear about how meddlesome Magowan is and how the failures of the team are obviously all his fault, I just think of this game a guy invented…
I get he says he pushed the agenda, but apparently Sabean agreed that it was the right way to go.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
The Giants landed in the top right corner.
There’s also a typo in the second row’s middle square. And there’s also a typo in the bottom right.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jun 15, 2008 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps that One Turn sleeps around?
In which case, it would definitely be considered loose, wouldn’t it?
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
The person most blocking a prospect is Winn. Winn is a good player, a player with value and I wouldn’t mind seeing him traded in order to free up a spot that will allow playing time to not just Schierholtz, but also, potentially, Horwitz and/or Bowker.
I think we all got the idea ‘trade Durham’ this past Winter when he seemed to be blocking Frandsen. Well, Frandsen is out for the year, so ‘trading Durham’ is not nearly as critical. I am not opposed to trading Durham, especially if we get something Denkerish in return. But trading him just to see more of Velez and Burris is not an acute priority.
I do think one of Durham or Aurilia should be traded, but I won’t squak if it is only one. Trading Aurilia does free up playing time for Bowker and Ort when he returns and also frees up a little playing time for Velez (3b), if he is brought up.
There is not enough behind Molina to trade him, so I expect him here through next year.
Likewise, I just don’t see anyone capable of playing SS everyday, or even of composing a platoon, to trade Omar. He will probably finish out the year and, if he continues to play as he has, not be back for ‘09.
If two of Winn/Durham/Aurilia are traded I would consider that a pretty good house cleaning of vets, considering only the one left, Molina, Rowand, Omar, and Zito would be vets.
Winn isn't blocking anyone
to block you must be standing still or moving slower than the person behind you. Winn is doing his job and is doing it better than anyone he could be blocking.
Now if we had a legitimate talent waiting in the wings, then perhaps I could see your point. But AFAIK we don’t. We have a guy who a lot of people have jumped on the bandwagon for when we had absolutely nothing in the minors. I’m not sold on Schierholz.
by positiveuphemism on Jun 13, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
winn is blocking
he is dead weight…i dont care if he does hit 300…he is a weak bat and needs to be gone
he will look good in the mets of, while we harvest what they have in aa
Dead weight? Except for when he hurt his knee, he’s been one of the most consistent producers on the team. He’s not spectacular, but I think he’s been a good Giant and hardly dead weight. If our teams as a whole had batted Winn’s 300/352/454 over the last couple of years, we would have sucked much less.
2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!
Weak Bat?
Winn’s .300/.352/.454 line is more than you’re ever going to get from Schierholtz.
Now if you’re talking Bowker in RF, I’ll listen. Don’t get me wrong; Winn should be dealt, and after Molina, he’s probably the most tradeable chip we have. But don’t think that Schierholtz is going to come in and beat Winn’s current numbers.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 14, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
ever?
I think BP has his current PCL performance translating as .271/.316/.502, so a low-800s OPS, almost exactly comparable to Winn’s current work. If he’s already about as good a hitter as Winn, and is still only 24, the betting money would say you are, for a season or two, almost certainly going to get more from Schierholtz.
I agree that Nate is quite likely capable of .300/.352/.454 in the majors. I could see Bowker hitting more homeruns than Nate, once both got established as starters. Schierholtz has already demostrated a very important quality: the ability to make adjustments. That should serve him well in his assault on NL pitching.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
Good post, Jake!
I didn’t quite understand this:
”...but with the numbers Alderson and Bumgarner are putting up in the minors I think there is the ammunition to defend the assertion that Sabean simply thought they were the best available talents when he took them.”
I don’t see how Tim’s and Madison’s current success excuses or even ameliorates the Culberson and Jackson selections. I think last year’s top draft choices are six separate events, each to be judged independently of the other. Yes, it appears we had a good draft. But we had six of the top 51 picks, so we really should have had a good draft. In fact, it was our golden opportunity to have a great draft, and we let that opportunity slip right through our fingers.
Otherwise, good observations on roster construction, trades, etc.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
Interesting
I wonder how much different our perceptions would be about Brian if F-Rod knew how to throw anything other than a fastball low and away, and we actually won in 2002. Would there be this angst and despair that always clouds our vision in evaluating the Giants?
It’s funny to think that one small turn of events and a lot more people around here would be speaking a lot more kindly about Sabes – primarily because the "win with Bonds now" would have worked. As it is, he came really close to pulling it off…
Anyway, regarding Brian – I think he’s always been a draft & develop guy (he was with the Yankees), but got away from it when he found himself sitting on the best player in the game and kept trying to add that perverbial "one more piece" that was missing from the team to put us "over the top" from 1997 to 2004. He should have realized that it was over a lot sooner than it actually was, and he went all in with his win with Bonds hand and ended up losing big in 05, 06 and 07. Finally in 08 he quit the table and started over, getting back to what made him successful in the first place – build through young talent.
I’m not one to criticize for failing to make a trade, because far too often we hear about the absurd offers that get thrown around after the fact. If getting someone of quality means opposing GMs are demanding Brian Wilson be thrown in the trade with Winn and $13.5M in cash – screw ‘em. Brian should walk away.
That said, he has an fairly good opportunity to trade some people this year at the deadline. The most important people to trade are Ray Durham and Rich Aurillia. The reasons are simple: 1) they take time away from younger prospects (especially w/ Mr. LvR managing); 2) They are both playing well and can add some value to a contending team; and 3) their contracts run out at the end of the season and (this is the key part) neither one of them will get us compensatory draft picks.
The draft picks are very important to evaluating whether or not to dump people. I’d be perfectly content to keep Winn and Molina for the duration of their contracts, have them play well, put up good numbers and then sign with somebody else – because they’ll both be type B (or possibly type A, if they keep hitting way over their career averages) free agents giving us one (or possibly two) additional top-50 picks in the draft. It’ll be a long time from now, but we need to keep stockpiling picks to boost the farm. Schierholtz can break in slowly next year, get 300+ ABs as a super-OF-sub if needed and start in RF in 2010 if it means we get two additional picks the following year.
As for relievers, if a really good deal comes along from a contender who is desperate (Milwaukee, hello?) go for it, but we shouldn’t unload people like they have no value. Tyler Walker will bring compensation if we don’t resign him this year. I hope he pitches lights out from now on and signs a huge contract to close for someone next year. You were a nice guy, Ty, but see ya, and welcome to you, our new draft pick in 2009.
Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.
"Adding one more piece" to "put us over the top"
...sounds like a junkie to me.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
wow, the most anti-Sabean guy on this whole website is praising Sabean
there truly is something major happening here.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jun 13, 2008 5:18 PM PDT reply actions
My mentor, Jake, is passing over to the dark side?
I’m feeling alone and isolated.
And as a result, I’m developing flu like symptoms.
Mr. Sabean: for a hundred indigestible decisions, I barf in your general direction.
Sabean has done some praiseworthy things, but why the #$%@ couldn’t he do these things when Bonds was around? Bonds’s salary? Well what about Zito’s salary?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 14, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with a lot of this, except that I think Velez is blocking Velez more than Durham is blocking Velez.
I think the kids who are up here have benefited from playing alongside the vets. All kids and no vets is an interesting concept, but I think there’s value in having someone around to actually show you how it’s done on the field.
I have set Dave Roberts free; if he comes back, it was meant to be.
I would not be so sure that only the prospect is blocking himself.
Compare the numbers for Durham & Frandsen last year. Most of the time Frandsen was equal or better. Offensive or defensive measurements. Not to say Frandsen was great or anything, just less putrid. The management solution? Frandsen roams the diamond. Like the ‘07 &’08 Giants don’t have enough 4th & 5th outfielder candidates as it is.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
I don't think Durham should be traded
because the top 3 contenders to play behind him (Velez/Denker/Burriss) really should be in AA right now. Though if we can get good value for him, go for it.
But really, the only person blocking anyone is Winn.
It depends on what you can get for Durham. Ochoa can play 2nd if need be.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 14, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno, Velez isn’t so much a prospect that I’d be concerned about his development. He is 26 after all.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
That’s a good point.
I will go further and say Velez sucks and will never be a major-league regular. He won’t stick in the bigs as a backup either. It would be one thing if he was a good defensive player, but he isn’t at all, so he can’t even really stick around as a utility infielder.
It’s a shame: how can such a speedy little guy suck at defense? Inexcusable, and he is probably just lazy, because he has the tools.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 15, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
So moving Richie to second and having more playing time for Ort and Bowker is bad?
Or moving Richie to third shift Castle to is trained position is bad? Or bringing up Ochoa is bad also?
Really Durham’s only calling card is his 1647 career P.A.’s in the hart of the order. It the only thing he does the Giants may not be able to readly replace. At he current slg clip of 414 that is not real tempting to me. Lets just say. for the sake of argument, the last 28 his what he does the rest of the way that puts his SLG at 435. Is that enough to satisfy others and put off looking for a replacement to take those at bats in 09 and beyond?
Oh yes and the wind is shifted for a bit and the reek is not making whole segments of the Giants Fandom retch so lets just go out on top shall for once. Please move Ray so he can try for a ring.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Whether Durham slugs .414 or .435, it doesn’t matter, really, if he has an OBP of .380. .380!!
Sure, Durham isn’t Chase Utley, or Durham 2006, or Jeff Kent, the Giants years. How good do you expect your second basemen to be?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 15, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, Durham has been pretty good, and really with last year as an exception, he’s been pretty good throughout his career. It’s just the Giants don’t need pretty good hitters NOW nearly as much as they need a shot at pretty good or better hitters in the future. I’m not saying they should trade Durham for a player who will outhit him now, or because we can replace Durham’s production with anybody in our system now, he’s just not going to propel us to the playoffs and who cares about the difference between 75 wins and 72?
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
Oh, I agree with that wholeheartedly. Durham is not going to be a part of the next great Giants team. That doesn’t mean that Durham’s performance should be dismissed because he has a .417 SLG this year.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 16, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
North Side what exactly does have Durham to recommend him to the Giants?
His glove work is shaky. It has to be he has experience in the hart of the order for a franchise that has no hart of the order bats. Thus his SLG is very relevant.
His OBP? When he bats second it drops to .328 in 58 P.A’s this season ( know small sample size but it is the spot he has hit the most from this season). If he was to prove he could hit second productively that would be something. They have batted him second 2 of the last 3 games (with a 0-9 with 4K’s) so maybe managment views that’s were Durham untapped value ( if any) lies.
Barring in mind the small sample size trumps most things the spot he seems most productive are 6th ( 1045 OPS in 32 P.A’s ), 3rd (906 OPS in 39) and 5th ( 877 OPS in 33 PA’s) in the order. If i had the time i would chase down how many of those PA’s in theose 3 spot happend durring Ray’s hot streak in May so please accept my apologies for not doing that.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on Jun 17, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Dissent
Don’t go soft now, Jake. Sabean’s accomplishments of late amount to two things:
1. Presiding over a couple of good drafts
2. Not making any excrutiatingly wrong-headed prospect-dumping moves.
That’s nice, but it’s hardly enough to proclaim the man to be competent all of a sudden. Since the end of last season, we’ve also seen the following, off the top of my head:
1. The rush to re-sign Omar Vizquel, foregoing both a potential draft pick from whoever else wanted to sign him and the opportunity to find a shortstop who could, um, still play.
2. The failure to bring in a third baseman even though several decent candidates were floating around. Jose Castillo was a wise pickup in spring training, but it would be nice not to be absolutely dependent on him, wouldn’t it?
3. The almost comical failure to bring in anything resembling a real first baseman.
4. The signing of Aaron Rowand. It has looked good so far, but it was (and still is) a poor risk, at one of the few positions on the diamond that the Giants sort of had covered.
5. The bizarre farrago of premature promotions and level-skipping among the youngsters.
6. The continued overworking of the young guns. This is the manager’s call, not the GM’s, but if we’re going to give Sabean credit for John Barr’s draft, we also have to give him the blame for Bruce Bochy’s wretched management of the top organizational assets.
Number 5 is the real killer. Any organization that would even consider making Brian Bocock into a major leaguer is not a healthy organization.
HA
1. I too didn’t really like the Vizquel re-signing, but let’s see there were no SS’s in the upper minors to replace him, and Ivan Ochoa is not a viable replacement. Other than David Eckstein, there was nobody on the market who was any good, and Eckstein isn’t very good either. Vizquel is still a quality defender (something the Giants have always valued) even though he can’t hit. He’s merely a stopgap signing until someone better comes along.
2. What decent 3rd base candidates were floating around out there? Lowell was never really a viable option as he was going to stay in Boston, or would have had to be overpaid with a long term deal to go to a place like SF. Joe Crede had an awful spring, and has chronic back injuries. Pedro Feliz was offered arbitration and declined, which gave us a draft pick (turned into Conner Gillaspie). Castillo, while not great has provided a stopgap until again somebody better comes along. This is what rebuilding teams do, they get shitty players to fill in until better ones can be signed or developed. Or did you want to get some overpaid crap veteran like Scott Rolen or Troy Glaus?
3. What’s comical is that there wasn’t a quality 1st baseman on the market. Seriously I wonder what fans are thinking sometimes. Or do you think Dan Johnson would have actually been better then Aurilia or Bowker? Because I don’t. And apparently the Rays agree since even though Pena was hitting .210, Johnson is still proving he’s a AAAA player in AAA Durham.
4. Rowand, I wasn’t a huge fan of his signing either. But not only has he hit well, but he’s brought a leadership presence (supposedly) that the Giants haven’t had since the late 80s.
5. I have no problem with guys skipping levels if they can handle it. Burriss has handled it, as has Bowker. So really what is the big gripe? Bocock wasn’t expected to hit anyway, he’s NEVER hit anywhere. He is known purely for his glove, and he was skipped a few levels purely for his defense. And the first couple of weeks he actually did somewhat ok at the plate, and then once the pitchers adjusted to him, it didn’t take long for him to look overmatched. Similar to what has happened to Justin Upton, as he’s now striking out about 2 times a game.
6. How has Bochy overworked our young guns? Care to provide some examples?
Other than David Eckstein, there was nobody on the market who was any good, and Eckstein isn’t very good either.
Adam Everett was available, and he plays better defense and is a better hitter and cost less money and is younger than Vizquel.
What decent 3rd base candidates were floating around out there?
The popular ideas were to gamble on either Morgan Ensberg or (more gooderly) Dallas McPherson.
Burriss has handled it, as has Bowker. So really what is the big gripe? Bocock wasn’t expected to hit anyway, he’s NEVER hit anywhere.
Bowker didn’t really skip a level as much as he was rushed through. Burriss is doing okay in a tiny sample size. It’s very very unlikely that he needs no more minor league seasoning. Also, there’s a reason you have minor league veterans like Ivan Ochoa in Fresno: so if there’s some injury on your team you can call up someone mediocre instead of calling up a terrible hitting shortstop from A ball and starting his 40-man roster clock early.
How has Bochy overworked our young guns? Care to provide some examples?
The way that he runs out Matt Cain for the 7th or 8th inning when he clearly got tired in the 6th or 7th. He does this constantly with Cain and it’s creating a wildly unnecessary injury risk.
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Oh my...
Adam Everett was available, and he plays better defense and is a better hitter and cost less money and is younger than Vizquel.Adam Everett is a better hitter? NO. He’s hit under .200 just like Vizquel has this year, and was even worse than Vizquel in 07. He also does not play better defense. Both of them are grossly overpaid, but at least with Vizquel’s track record he has earned being overpaid (if there is such a thing) Everett should be making the league minimum, not nearly 3 million dollars.
The popular ideas were to gamble on either Morgan Ensberg or (more gooderly) Dallas McPherson.Morgan Ensberg, another winner, who already is an available FA again as he was DFA’d. McPherson is a classic AAAA player. He would have provided some power, given he can actually hit ML pitching. He’s also terrible defensively.
Bowker didn’t really skip a level as much as he was rushed through. Burriss is doing okay in a tiny sample size. It’s very very unlikely that he needs no more minor league seasoning. Also, there’s a reason you have minor league veterans like Ivan Ochoa in Fresno: so if there’s some injury on your team you can call up someone mediocre instead of calling up a terrible hitting shortstop from A ball and starting his 40-man roster clock early.
Indeed Bowker was rushed through, but he’s done a decent job. Burriss is doing better than Ok. And I’m not even taking his batting into consideration. He’s shown a maturity level, and confidence that not many young players show, especially ones who skip 3 levels of minor league ball. I’m not expecting him to keep hitting, and hope eventually Velez can be brought up and Burriss sent down, but he’s more than held his own in the limited PT he has gotten.
As for the Cain thing, I think that’s a total unnecessary criticism. For one, there is nothing to suggest that pitching another inning or 20 pitches will cause an injury. If anything pitcher’s today are BABIED with pitch counts. Pitchers will get hurt regardless of overuse. They typically get hurt due to mechanical flaws, and general wear and tear. If anything pitchers don’t throw enough. And because of that they’re not conditioned to throw as much as pitchers in year’s past were able to do.
What groug said, with one addition: Of course Dan Johnson would have been better than Aurilia or Bowker. Johnson’s career OPS is 763. That’s in a pitcher’s park, in the tougher league, while running very unlucky with his babip. In reality, Johnson is probably a .270/.370/.450 hitter, or better. It’s not close.
The thing about skipping levels … I don’t know what the best way to develop baseball players is. There are dozens of factors at play for each individual prospect. My question is, why do the Giants do things that no other team does?
For many many years, the minor leagues have been arranged in a rigid hierarchy. Players gradually work their way up from rookie ball to AAA, if they’re good enough. The presumption is that players learn and progress best when they are being challenged, but not too challenged. So, with the occasional exception for true top prospects, every team in baseball advances its players one slow step at a time, allowing them to move up when they’ve shown they can handle the level they’re at.
Except the Giants. The Giants seem to believe that the leap from A-ball to the majors is insignificant, that a couple of weeks at one level is sufficient preparation for the next, that you might as well pretend that AA doesn’t exist. The worst that can happen is that a player can’t handle it, so you can just drop him back down and try someone else. No harm done.
So are the Giants right and everyone else wrong?
What groug said, with one addition: Of course Dan Johnson would have been better than Aurilia or Bowker. Johnson’s career OPS is 763. That’s in a pitcher’s park, in the tougher league, while running very unlucky with his babip. In reality, Johnson is probably a .270/.370/.450 hitter, or better. It’s not close.No, in reality Johnson is a .250 career hitter with .345 OBP and .420 SLG %. Which is about what Rich Aurilia is producing right now.
As for the rest, who have the Giants skipped other than a few guys this year? Which was mostly done out of necessity than anything else.
Johnson is better than those numbers in the same way Bowker is better than his numbers (see xanthan’s Bowker post from last week).
The “necessity” was a direct result of Sabean’s other personnel decisions.
By my count, the Giants have had six players on the roster this season who have had no significant time at AAA, and one player who did but wasn’t very good (Ortmeier). Of those seven, two have been decent, two have been around replacement level, two have been epic disasters, and one has barely played, so all we know about him is that he’s not getting any at-bats to develop. You’re happy with that track record?
Horwitz, Holm, Burriss, Denker, Timpner, Ortmeier, Bowker, Lewis, Velez, Bocock.
Let’s see Horwitz, Ortmeier, Lewis all had significant time at AAA. 1 has been terrible, the other 2 decent, albeit Horwitz has had a small sample. Timpner did too, and he got 2 AB’s, and struck out twice and got sent back down.
Denker, Bowker, Burriss all barely played in AAA. All 3 have performed decently in a limited sample. Bocock had similar inexperience and he was terrible at the plate. He was only on the team for defense.
Steve Holm and Eugenio Velez, both made the team in spring training after solid springs. Holm for the most part has been adequate as a backup catcher to Molina. He isn’t hitting anymore, and probably won’t hit for the rest of the year. Wouldn’t be surprised if he was demoted to AAA later on. But most backup catcher’s aren’t kept on the roster for their bat. Neither one played much above AA. And it showed. Velez is now in AAA, and playing very well, he should be back in SF sooner or later. He started the year well, but once his bat cooled off, his entire game pretty much went into the crapper.
So far it’s been about a mixed bag in terms of production. Some of these guys have performed way better than expected, so for the most part I’m happy with the track record. I’m sure if there other alternatives then these younger kids would be continuing their development in the minors, but there simply isn’t really better options at this point in time.
There aren’t better options at this point because Sabean failed to plan for two years and left himself with no better options. Let’s not forget that he wasn’t left this mess by the previous GM.
Sure, there was some bad luck – Durham and Frandsen being hurt, Omar being hurt, problems with the backup catchers – but some of these moves were just puzzling. It was terribly apparent that if Bocock couldn’t hit in high A, he wasn’t going to come remotely close to hitting enough in the majors, let alone AAA. Sure, he has a nice glove, but it was a silly move.
Why even have Ochoa if he’s going to sit in AAA while Bocock goes to the majors? Ochoa may not be the answer, but he doesn’t need to be – he’s organizational stopgap filler, a contingency plan, which in this case is Omar and Frandsen being hurt. Maybe Sabean doesn’t want Ochoa on the 40-man roster, but he does want Bocock there to keep him from getting snagged in the Rule 5 draft. That can be done without putting Bocock in the majors, though. Also, if Bocock is somehow so important for the team’s future, why not protect him and promote him wisely instead of throwing him in the deep end?
The decision to promote Bocock to the bigs is plainly bizarre, and even if you view all of the roster moves in the light most favorable to Sabean, the Bocock ploy was obvious wishcasting made to fail.
Castillo has been better than expected, and Aurilia is there to back him up at 3B. That’s a classic “someone will have a decent year” Sabean ploy. That ploy actually used to work, and it’s a much-needed win for Sabean, especially as nothing in Castillo’s career numbers suggested that he would hit. Holm is here because Alfonzo and Rodriguez couldn’t be, which is fine.
What’s the deal with the OF carousel? Rajai Davis, 18 AB? Clay Timpner, 2 AB? Who makes decisions based on such small sample sizes? Yet Velez, who is simply bad at baseball, gets 121 AB to prove that he can neither hit, nor effectively run the bases, nor play defense? Everyone knew that Velez couldn’t play defense before the season started, such that he was moved to the OF in AA. So Velez is suddenly going to be able to play 2B at a major-league level?
I will give credit where credit is due: the team has stuck with Lewis and Bowker, both of whom are legitimate major-leaguers. We have been begging for position players from the system, and we have two keepers. They don’t have to be future All-Stars – simply providing average-or-better numbers at their positions frees up payroll for help elsewhere.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 17, 2008 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions
No doubt
They failed the previous two years to develop guys. But part of that was bad luck too. The Giants for a long time now have had awful luck when it comes to the health of their top positional prospects. Tony Torcato, and EME both were promising young hitters whose careers were destroyed due to shoulder injuries. So too was Marcus Sanders, who had he not been injured, likely would have been ready to play in the Majors this year after being in AAA. But instead he too had major shoulder surgery and struggled to regain any sense of ability in both the field and at the plate, and never was able to get past SJ. Lance Niekro is another who suffered injuries.
The other problem of course was the overall mediocrity of the positional prospects. I mean just looking back at these teams on minors.baseball-reference.com and one can see why they’ve been so terrible at producing guys. The few that did show promise, did early on but then flamed out. At least the pitchers were good….
As for Bocock, he was only supposed to be up for 2 weeks to play SS, and Vizquel took longer to come back then expected. Ochoa is only in AAA purely for the roster filler role. It’s not often that those types of guys get call ups, even if the other teams lack depth at a certain position.
But more than a few of the guys who were rushed have done a pretty good job so far this year in limited action, so I just hope this trend continues where our luck might be reversing as far as positional prospects goes, much like John Bowker’s luck with LD’s starting to fall for hits, or go over the wall for homeruns. ;)
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