Pablo Sandoval and small sample size

by wcw on Jun 11, 2008 7:04 AM PDT Comment 26 comments

Now, I liked Pablo Sandoval last year. Not as a real prospect, but as someone interesting. He played catcher, at least sometimes, and after he hit 338/346/581 in June and 304/309/543 in July at age 21, I figured, hey -- even in the Cal League, a name worth watching.

This year, he wasn't promoted, then hit like Babe Ruth in April. Et voila, he was, perhaps justly, seen as a real prospect in a system almost entirely bare of hitters. Promote the man now, cried the assembled masses. He's clearly too good for high A.

Since that incredible April, he hit a merely solid 321/385/431 in May and a disappointing 243/263/378 in the short portion of June we've played. Neither of which worries me. Both of which remind me that anything can happen in a hundred plate appearances.

Now, Sandoval did step up in the spring and 453/500/895 for a month. That's a good thing, and portends more hope for future performance than a Giants fan can usually expect from a non-overaged hitter in its farm system. I have hopes. Still, until he puts up more months like that, there's no rush to promote him, and he won't be much of a hitting prospect outside this very thin system.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Neither of which worries me. Both of which remind me that anything can happen in a hundred plate appearances.

Pretty much, but I’m encouraged by some of his underlying stats, specifically his BB% which he’s made a noticeable improvement with. He’s already surpassed his walk totals from last year in about 150 less PA’s and even during his May when he wasn’t so hot, he was walking at the 9% rate that he established in his super-hot April.

I agree that he needs to keep doing this, but I think as weak as this system is with hitting, he’s moved into the top-15 as a hitting prospect, heck maybe even top-10.

I hope that skipping him past AA doesn’t screw him up, because I’m guessing the average A-ball pitcher doesn’t have much of a breaking ball as compared to the AA/AAA counterparts.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Jun 11, 2008 7:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I’m a firm believer that his BB improvement is real, and I’d like to see him challenged in AA or AAA. If he is just capitalizing on the lack of quality breaking balls in the league, then I’d think having him face some more advanced pitchers would be beneficial for his development.

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Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Jun 11, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Watching him in Visalia last week

I was encouraged. He has good plate discipline and drills the ball when he makes contact.

Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!

by UnleashTheGore on Jun 11, 2008 8:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Stud!

He also drills the babes when he makes contact.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Jun 11, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Saw the SJ Giants on Saturday

when the played the Bakerfield Blaze. Sandoval looks and swings like Prince Fielder, if a bit less disciplined. Ferocious bat, which he would use on nearly every pitched ball….but I’m thinking that there aren’t many guys who can get away with a swing like that at the Major Leagues. This may be only my own small sample size talking here, but he looked like a right-handed Jeremy Burnitz.

by biff pocoroba on Jun 11, 2008 8:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I also have to mention that the times I’ve seen him play, he moves a lot faster than you would expect from a big guy. I saw him playing first base in one game, and he moved around the bag well. So I am encouraged about that as well as his good hitting.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 11, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

burnitz had his moments

If Sandoval churns out a dozen seasons at catcher with a Burnitz-like career OPS+ of 110 or so, I’d be ecstatic. That’s some good hitting for a catcher. My fear is that pitchers at higher levels will be able to exploit that swing.

Here’s hoping he adjusts.

by wcw on Jun 11, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 11, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Burnitz

I’d be ecstatic as well. Burnitz had a nice career. My point was that not too many players can pull off the dozen-year career with that sort of approach at the plate.

by biff pocoroba on Jun 11, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to many players can be as good as Burnitz was with a swing that violent, either. I was always surprised that he didn’t hurt himself on every swing and miss.

by tyrannoman on Jun 11, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve always been most encouraged by his ability to throw out more than 50% of base stealers. If he can keep doing that, he can hit like Yadier Molina and I’ll still be happy with him behind the plate.

by Change Up on Jun 11, 2008 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You know, looking back at the box scores it occurs to me that Pablo was given a LOT more rests (either in off days or 1B/DH games) in April than he has since then. In May I believe he played every game on the schedule at C. Now I know causation ain’t correlation, still I say, give my boy a breather now and then. His power’s in his legs you know.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Jun 11, 2008 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I saw him play over a week ago against Stockton. He looked good. He took a pitch and drove it right up the middle for a single. And he does move pretty well for his size. Got to see him run the bases, he isn’t fast obviously, but Bengie Molina makes him look like Rickey Henderson. He also had a nice quick release, and accurate arm down to second from what I saw. He takes quite a few pitches too.

by Hobbes2d on Jun 11, 2008 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He takes quite a few pitches too.

Two things in baseball I’ll always wonder about:
- Why is a strikeout a “K”?
- Why is not swinging at a pitch “taking it”?

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jun 11, 2008 2:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Because ‘S’ was for sacrifice.

I guess “taking it” instead of “getting it” or “hitting it?”

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 11, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

S is for sacrifice, and when you think about a K, it has three strikes. Strike one (backbone), strike two (top stroke), and strike three (bottom stroke). That’s a lot of strokin’ in a fanpost about a small sample size.

by tyrannoman on Jun 12, 2008 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That three-strokes thing makes amazing sense. Did you make that up or is it for reals?

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jun 12, 2008 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s what I’ve been told. Not just making it up, this time.

by tyrannoman on Jun 12, 2008 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I keep reading this as “Pablo Sandoval and HIS small sample size.”

And it makes me think this is a whole different kind of fanpost.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 11, 2008 3:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

SHRINKAGE!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Jun 11, 2008 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pablito

2008 Giants: Scrappy! Scrappy! Joy! Joy!

by Goofus on Jun 11, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aren't all the fanposts here "those" kind of fan posts?

Only 909 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on Jun 11, 2008 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They should be called SexyPosts!

Everybody Loves Durham
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Jun 11, 2008 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Merely solid

I’ll be overjoyed if Pablo Sandoval plays “merely solid” baseball for the rest of his HOF-bound career. 321/385/431? I’ll take that any day from a catcher…

by lmaozedong on Jun 11, 2008 3:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this is the Cal League

in which an average hitter puts up something like a .275/.340/.410. In that context, Sandoval’s slightly better-than-average month was, indeed, merely solid. Nothing special, since he barely outhit other A-ball hitters. HoF-bound hitters don’t ‘barely outhit’ A-ball hitters. They crush them.

See Bonds, Barry.

by wcw on Jun 11, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pablo

Clearly Pablo Sandoval’s star is rising this season. He’s not exactly new to A ball, but he’s still young enough to be playing at that level (unlike other Giants “prospects”).

When a player is still in Class A, with few exceptions, he continues to be a big question mark. But Pablo seems to have a chance at a position where the Giants had hardly anything in the minors before drafting Buster Posey.

Since both Buster and Pablo appear to be able to play multiple positions and since catchers’ careers can sometimes be extended by playing other positions on occasion, I see a place for both of them if Pablo does indeed continue to develop. Worst case, there is always the trade market.

Pablo almost certainly won’t be a Hall of Famer (although Posey might), but I think he could be an above-average hitter for a catcher. He should be moving up no later than next season, and then we should be able to get a more definitive read on him.

by sharksrog on Jun 11, 2008 5:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs