Some (more) Zito Anal-lysis
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 9:49 AM PDT
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PrintI'm doing this one pre-start today in the hope that it will not appear as a hind-sight 20/20 type of thing. I should also make clear that I don't know my head from my ass when it comes to pitching mechanics or anything like that, so this is all a layman's analysis. If you don't want to read all my blabbering, just read the bolded lines...
What's wrong with Zito? Well duh, a lot of things. There are a lot of people on the 'net claiming Zito has this or that wrong w/ his mechanics, or that his drop in velocity leads to other problems etc. It's probably all true, and probably all prevents him from winning another Cy Young or ever being a 126m dollar worthy pitcher.
But right now, he has got a much more serious problem. He isn't even a league-minimum worthy pitcher. If he ever returns to a point where he can tow a 4.5 ERA and go 5-6 innings w/ regularity, then we can talk about velocity and mechanics etc.
But, my opinion on what is keeping him from being effective AT ALL is as follows:
He cannot locate his curveball for strikes. Plain and simple. While there are a lot of pitches that don't try to locate for strikes but are still effective, (the in-the-dirt slider, etc ) the reason these pitches are effective is because they look fastballs (or reasonably close to) coming out of the pitchers hand. They fool the batter into thinking they are going to be in the strike zone.
Barry Zito's curveball doesn't look anything like a fastball coming out of his hand, and any hitter who has half a clue can recognize it. If you are at the plate, and you see Barry unleasing that big swooping curve of his, and you know (from the scouting report) it is not going to be in the strike zone, what would you do?
Duh. Don't swing. Take all the way. Even I could stand in there and take on a Zito curve. Well, unless my last name was Castillo, Feliz, or Velez.
This forces Zito to throw his fastball to get strikes. His location w/ the fastball has been good enough to get it mostly over the plate, but not good enough to consistently paint corners. His velocity on the fastball is too low to overpower anyone, and he ends up pitching BP.
Imagine Zito as a BP pitcher who alternates between an 82 mph fastball somewhere around the plate and a big swoopy curve that's not going to be anywhere close. You don't swing at the curve and sit on the fastball. It's kinda like playing ball w/ your friend who keeps trying to throw a knuckle ball, and you know he's doing it, and you just kinda let it go where ever it's gonna go 'cause you know it doesn't have a chance. Then when it's 2-0 he finally stops screwin' around and soft-tosses one in there that you cream...
So batters are sitting all over it. Now, Zito knows he can't put a 82 mph fastball over the plate in the ML, 'cause even Brandon Webb can(will?) own that pitch. So he tries to locate it to the corners. He misses, a lot. Sometimes he misses off the plate and it's a ball, other times he misses right over the plate, and we all know what happens then.
So what you end up with is a pitcher who walks a lot of people in "hafta" counts because he misses off the pate with his BP fastball, gives up a lot of hits in "hafta" counts because he misses over the plate with his BP fastball, and gets into a lot of "hafta" counts because he cannot locate his curve for a strike. He also throws a lot of pitches trying to nibble the plate w/ the fastball or do something useful w/ the curve. Sound familiar?
On the flip side, if he can reliably locate that curve for a strike, hitters have to swing at it. It's a hard pitch to hit well - maybe not as hard now as it was, but it's still hard. You can still see the curve coming, but now you know you have to treat it as a strike, and swing appropriately.
The low-velocity fastball and fastball/change location issues will still cause him problems, but at least having the curve as a strike will keep the hitters guessing. A hitter having to protect against the curve will not have as good of timing on the fastball, and as a result that pitch becomes more effective (not as effective as it would be if it were 5 mph faster, but still effective). Right now, the hitter can disregard the curve, and as a result sit dead-red on the fastball. When I go to the batting cages, I can hit a 80 mph fastball once I get adjusted to the speed. I'm pretty sure that I could face Barry Zito right now and get him to throw curveballs into a "hafta" count and then make contact w/ the pitching machine fastball he tosses. Since I am a giants fan however, I would almost certainly ground it to the third baseman.
End result: Zito w/ curve in the strike zone, velocity issues, and fastball/change location issues = league average or slightly better pitcher.
Zito w/o curve in the strike zone, velocity issues, and location issues = someone who probably wouldnt have even made his college team.
So why isn't his curve in the 'zone? I don't know... that's not my job. What baffles me however is why the people who's job it is don't seem to see where he is at. It seems to me that watching Zito throw a bullpen session, I could tell you if his curve was going for strikes or not. If it's not, no reason to start him until it is. It's pretty simple. If you can't throw strikes in warm-up, you aren't going to be able to in the game.
If he can throw his curve for strikes in the bullpen but not in the game, that is a whole 'nother issue, and one for the psychologists.
Of course, Pitch F/x could show that I am completely full of it, but I doubt it.
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Excellent analysis.
At the risk of stating the obvious, major league pitching seems like the ultimate virtuous/vicious cycle activity. Be aggressive, challenge hitters, get into pitchers counts-easier said than done, of course-and everything else follows: more swing-throughs, fewer pitches thrown, fewer high-stress innings. Conversely, nibble at the corners too much, be too predictable in what you throw, and you have the recipe for pitching out of the stretch, high-stress innings, relying on your (porous) fielding defense to get you out of jams.
If I have any real beef with the job Rags has done, it’s that he hasn’t done enough to teach/encourage his starters to pitch aggressively. Some days they do, some days they don’t. Does it surprise anyone that the Giants pitchers are at or near the top of the majors in pitches per plate appearance? 1st in 2005. 8th in 2006 and 2007. 4th so far this year. That has micro effects on a game and macro effects on the bullpen and the long-term viability of starters.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
I recommend people recommend this article
Felix Hernandez fixed a problem last year because it was talked about at Lookout Landing. Maybe we can have the same effect here, if enough eyeballs see this diary.
This stuff seems so simple, and I think it is. I think the Giants are just as guilty of over-thinking as Zito is. Maybe it’s a match made in heaven, after all.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
It does seem so simple sometimes, doesn't it?
If my post filters up to Zito and helps him out, my life might be complete…
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
It was at USSM, not LL
, more importantly, Cameron charted Felix’ starts pitch by pitch.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
ugh
not on my game today. point still holds, though, i think.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
RE: Rags and nibbling
As staunch a Dave Righetti defender as I am, the “nibbling” disease does seem to be pretty chronic to Giants pitchers, and I have ben frustrated by it as well. It’s obviously by design (or, it would seem that way), so it’s relatively safe to assume that there is some method behind the philosophy. And I’m pretty willing to sacrifice standard practice for results, and since we seem to get results out of most of our pitchers I try not to make too big a deal out of it.
That said, the thing that is really frustrating about it is that the nibbling method is the surefieriest way to drive up pitch counts early, which regardless of whether you think it matters, does force the starters out of games early. Over the last x years, bullpen fatigue has seemed to be a pretty chronic problem on the Giants. We’ve often attributed it specifically to Alou or Baker, but it’s conceivable that as much as those guys visibly beat up our relievers, those relievers were also putting up more innings to begin with just because the starters weren’t going as deep as they might with a more aggressive approach. I don’t have the numbers to support that, but it does intuitively follow, at least. That doesn’t mean that it ACTUALLY follows, but it might.
HOWEVER, regarding the method of “nibbling” itself, I remember some discussion on the boards here last year about how it might be benefitting our pitchers, specifically with regard to many of their surprisingly low HR allowed totals. The idea being that this strategy is a give and take from standard practice, allowing a few more baserunners to walks, but also having the effect of reducing opponent’s overall slugging to even out the equation. More baserunners are allowed, but fewer balls are driven to score those runners. Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry all had abnormally low HR allowed totals last season, and Lowry in particular (though even I believe that he benefited from a great deal of luck) was able to overcome an excess of baserunners (1:1 K:BB ratio…), as this analysis would suggest. I’d love to hear more discussion on what there might be to this theory, because it came and went pretty quickly last season, and I think it’s interesting that there might be a legitimate counter-point to the idea that our pitchers’ nibbling tendencies is a real problem.
It’s still frustrating, because I would rather keep the pitch counts lower if we could get similar end results with a standard method. Not because I think pitch counts are particularly significant on a game to game basis, but because they do directly impact how many innings a guy pitches on a game to game basis. And I like moar innings.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Low HR allowed? Not this year...
Giants have given up 33 HRs this year, 6th in the majors. Giving up home runs with no one on isn’t the worst outcome, and is the price one occasionally pays for pitching aggressively. Again, nibbling leads to walks, which leads to higher-pressure ABs, and a mistake pitch with men on leads to…you know the answer. How many 2-run homers has this team surrendered in the last four games?
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
Small sample size may apply here
Many of the teams we have played in the first month are teams that are absolutely crushing the ball
Philly, 50 HR
Arizona, 38 HR
Cincinatti, 34 HR
Milwaukee, 30 HR
These 4 teams make up 15 of our 33 games so far this season. Add in St Luis who mashed against us (asshole ludwig) and you get 22 of 33 games.
Now, are these teams in part mashing ‘cause they faced Giants pitching, or is Giants pitching giving up a lot of HR because the teams we are facing are creaming the ball, I don’t kno. FWIW…
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
This year has obviously been b-a-d.
This year is also only a month in, so who knows. I’m not saying that what I’ve written above is full-proof or even that it’s right, just that it was discussed last season and I found it pretty darn interesting.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
You and Fairweather are right about small sample size, must be taken into account. The Giants were among the league leaders last year (and maybe 2006 as well) in fewest HRs allowed. I wonder if anything has fundamentally changed in their pitching philosophy.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
Ironically, I would say something has
So far this year, the bullpen especially, has been throwing more strikes. Because of the quality of the arms, they are getting outs with those pitches (Walker, Valdez, Wilson especially).
Or at least it appears that they are. Pretty much anyone not named Henessey in the bullpen can be counted on to come in and throw strikes. That will lead to more home runs. I don’t see a lot of nibbling from the ‘pen in general.
Last year (and the year before that especially) the bullpen was a goddamn circus with walks being issued all over the place.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Glove work has changed.
I know in this era of fantasy stats being the focus of a sizable contingent of baseball fans this is going to be rattle some cages. It does not help things that Sabean gave defense the kiss of death this off season by putting it on heavy rotation ( right up there with Due Diligence and Kickin’ the Tires).
Not that team defense has been great the last handful of years. It has not. So far this year its been worse in the action I’ve seen. And I know almost any good, or better, defending team starts off poorly tell it plays together for a while and things “jell” but our team’s current "D" is one of the reasons I except a rough next 6, or so, weeks . If your a Pitcher and you know you can’t surrender 3-4 runs that’s a deadly duo to face.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
P.S. The other half of the deadly duo is the lack of offense.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
It would be interesting to see if there is some defined method to this
Because it does seem as tho the majority of Giants pitchers go deep into counts most of the time.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Nibbling is kewl
because you can try lots of tasty things without getting too full.
If you’re taking away more runs from the opposition by cutting into their SLG and creating bad-ball outs than you’re giving back through walks / higher OBP and mistake pitches from fatigue, then it’s a win. Your organization just needs to churn out reliable spare parts for the middle of the pen to compensate for fatigue-related injuries and ineffectiveness.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
One other factor
And it’s not really fair to bring it up, because it’s out of everyone’s control, but here it is: the umpires don’t always call his curveball correctly. A lot of times, it clearly falls through the zone on the way to a low call. A few experiences with umpires like this could subconsciously aid Zito not throwing the curveball effectively, as it registers that when he does, it doesn’t yield results.
I have a feeling that umpires in the AL got used to the Zito curve, and called it more correctly. The effect on Zito would be more confidence in that pitch.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
by hairball on May 7, 2008 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
That certainly hurts. However, when he misses badly with it most of the time, he is a lot less likely to get the call on anything borderline. When Zito throws a start where 80-90% of his curves are reasonably near the zone and he still doesn’t get calls, then we can talk about umpire bias.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Umpires in the AL?
A correction: there are no AL/NL umpires and haven’t been for years. The umps calling Zito’s games with Oakland are the umps calling his games now.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
I'm an idiot!!!!!
And I knew that, but my brain was evidently on holiday
Where’s that comment eraser feature when you need it? Argh.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
It's right here in my hand...
Ahhhh…that power is good sometimes.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Somewhat OT but still interesting
If Zito would like to feel sorry for someone else for awhile, his ex Big Three co-hort Mark Mulder is currently getting lit up by AAA players.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
Perhaps we should make a deal for him :)
Maybe they just need to be together…
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
me
Steroids are not likely to affect velocity like that.
HGH has the potential to delay loss of velocity, but there’s really no reason for pitchers to juice other than (perhaps) faster healing.
Pitchers who get injured sometimes lose velocity.
The problem for me with not talking about mechanics before he gets these other things straight (primarily, location on the curve), is that the most likely culprit for bad location on any pitch is a mechanical flaw, and – if I’m not incorrect – is generally a release point issue.
Point being, that for Zito to start locating his curveball again, he might by necessity have to look at mechanics. I don’t think you can say “locate now, mechanics later.” I’m not sure it works that way.
Speaking of this, though, does anybody know if the Zito Analysis follow up has been published online (the one with the videos of Zito before and after, Zito vs. Santana, and so on). I was hotly awaiting updates on that series of articles, but then it just went poof, out of my head. The original article can be found here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-bridge-too-far/
I don’t see that there’s been a follow up yet, but I might just be looking in the wrong spots.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
On that note
The search options on these sites SUCK now. Even using google and the nifty site:URL trick, it only seems to search the contents of Grant’s front page stories. Fanposts appear to be completely ignored in anything search-like. And manually going through hundreds of fanposts is TEDIOUS.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
+1,000,000
The search function on the old SB sites was terrific. It’s the biggest step backwards in the new 2.0 world. I hope the Powers That Be are planning/working to remedy this.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
I was hoping that downtime a couple weeks ago was used to fix the search function. Alas, we must keep on dreaming.
Even if they didn't do a full fix
But just made fanposts alone more accessible through either a proper archive system or by optimizing them for searches, it would go a long way.
It wouldn’t be anywhere near as good as the old search was, but it would make things a lot easier.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
We are aware of the problem, and am working on it.
I know they have tried to prioritize things but this is something I’d put up top.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Fantastic Pronoun Utilization
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he’s doing pretty well for a WalrusMan. His WalrusMother couldn’t even use regular nouns. And his ManFather… well, don’t get me started on that one….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
BTW, WalrusMan
Your mom is hot.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't mean to suggest that mechanics aren't important
I just mean I don’t know up from down and wasn’t going to try to comment on his mechanics. Obviously, if he can’t locate – it’s a mechanical/release point issue of some sort. I am just trying to point out the stupid-dumb-obvious point, not the complicated biomechanics reason behind it.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Got it
And as that goes, I’m with you. I understand bio-mechanics about as far as I know that certain things hurt when I do them.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 7, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
If I were making the start/no start decision
I would watch a bullpen session and evaluate his ability to put the curve in the ‘zone (with a batter in the box).
If he can do it, he starts, if he can’t – he doesnt and it’s off to the biomechanicaly inclined to figure out why.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 7, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
There have been two follow-ups...
...but they have mostly been devoted to attempting to establish context and/or credentials: Part 2 and Part 3. He has yet (as far as I can tell) to post Part 4, but its title suggests he’s finally prepared to actually talk about Z: “Crossing the bridge; a closer look at what happened to Barry Zito’s fastball… “
Ever hopeful for all our rising stars, like Tim and Cain ... and David B. Flemming!
Thanks!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 8, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
From what I know of mechanics, release point can be a culprit as it comes and goes, but is pretty easy to fix. Far more important is everything that happens between balance point and foot plant. There are so many different moving parts that even one small thing can result in a drop in velocity. I suspect Zito has been tinkering with his delivery since before last pre-season trying to deal with his velocity drop and has made things worse.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Zito's Delivery
Zito was supposed to be working on a new delivery, in part to get some velocity back, right? I believe that the team talked him out of it, but at this point, they might as well let him go back to the drawing board.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on May 7, 2008 1:13 PM PDT reply actions
The real question for me is
how come he was league average last year (4.53 ERA, 98 ERA+, lower overall WHIP than two of his last three years in Oakland – with, after the all-star break, a 4.11 ERA, a .235 BAA, and a winning record), but sucks holy hell this year?
If Zeets were middle-of-the-road this year, like he was last year, (1) we’d have a much better team this year, and (2) there would be a small chance, if we were willing to eat salary, of trading him to a rich team that could use an innings eater (NYY, NYM, ANA).
My guess (1) Zito tinkered and worried too much in the off season, messing with what was kinda sorta working in a solid #3-4 starter kind of way in an effort to earn/deserve his salary and #1 starter status, and (2) I read somewhere that the Giants’ contract made him stop surfing, which he says lessens his arm strength.
But hey who knows, maybe he got off the juice (Oakland A’s – home of Canseco, Big Mac, and JaGiambi), maybe he’s just getting old, maybe he pitched too many innings when he was younger, maybe he was just never that good to begin with …
maybe
you just cant get by with an 83 mph fastball in the major leagues.
seriously though, that’s high school status. i could hit zito.
The book on Zito was that he began most seasons slowly (albeit never 0-7 slowly). Finding the April where he pitched well is the difficult part. I’m curious why. He’s lost something on his fastball, but did his fastball improve as season’s went on in the past? Does history suggest that he’ll gain a bit over the next month? Or is it just taking a bit longer to locate the curve.
He wasn’t terrible at all last night. Too many pitches, but he could strike some guys out and he wasn’t getting routinely crushed.
Where to get Pitch F/X
Say I wanted to see the pitch F/X data for Zito from last night’s game – where can I find it?
I’ve found sites with information for last year, but nothing for up to date info.
Thanks.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
You're best bet
Is to use the Gameday from yesterdays game and dump out the data into a spreadsheet.
their their, it's okay...
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 8, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
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