I'm doing this one pre-start today in the hope that it will not appear as a hind-sight 20/20 type of thing. I should also make clear that I don't know my head from my ass when it comes to pitching mechanics or anything like that, so this is all a layman's analysis. If you don't want to read all my blabbering, just read the bolded lines...

What's wrong with Zito? Well duh, a lot of things. There are a lot of people on the 'net claiming Zito has this or that wrong w/ his mechanics, or that his drop in velocity leads to other problems etc. It's probably all true, and probably all prevents him from winning another Cy Young or ever being a 126m dollar worthy pitcher.

But right now, he has got a much more serious problem. He isn't even a league-minimum worthy pitcher. If he ever returns to a point where he can tow a 4.5 ERA and go 5-6 innings w/ regularity, then we can talk about velocity and mechanics etc.

But, my opinion on what is keeping him from being effective AT ALL is as follows:

He cannot locate his curveball for strikes. Plain and simple. While there are a lot of pitches that don't try to locate for strikes but are still effective, (the in-the-dirt slider, etc ) the reason these pitches are effective is because they look fastballs (or reasonably close to) coming out of the pitchers hand. They fool the batter into thinking they are going to be in the strike zone.

Barry Zito's curveball doesn't look anything like a fastball coming out of his hand, and any hitter who has half a clue can recognize it. If you are at the plate, and you see Barry unleasing that big swooping curve of his, and you know (from the scouting report) it is not going to be in the strike zone, what would you do?

Duh. Don't swing. Take all the way. Even I could stand in there and take on a Zito curve.  Well, unless my last name was Castillo, Feliz, or Velez.

This forces Zito to throw his fastball to get strikes. His location w/ the fastball has been good enough to get it mostly over the plate, but not good enough to consistently paint corners. His velocity on the fastball is too low to overpower anyone, and he ends up pitching BP.

Imagine Zito as a BP pitcher who alternates between an 82 mph fastball somewhere around the plate and a big swoopy curve that's not going to be anywhere close. You don't swing at the curve and sit on the fastball. It's kinda like playing ball w/ your friend who keeps trying to throw a knuckle ball, and you know he's doing it, and you just kinda let it go where ever it's gonna go 'cause you know it doesn't have a chance. Then  when it's 2-0 he finally stops screwin' around and soft-tosses one in there that you cream...

So batters are sitting all over it. Now, Zito knows he can't put a 82 mph fastball over the plate in the ML, 'cause even Brandon Webb can(will?) own that pitch. So he tries to locate it to the corners. He misses, a lot. Sometimes he misses off the plate and it's a ball, other times he misses right over the plate, and we all know what happens then.

So what you end up with is a pitcher who walks a lot of people in "hafta" counts because he misses off the pate with his BP fastball, gives up a lot of hits in "hafta" counts because he misses over the plate with his BP fastball, and gets into a lot of "hafta" counts because he cannot locate his curve for a strike. He also throws a lot of pitches trying to nibble the plate w/ the fastball or do something useful w/ the curve. Sound familiar?

On the flip side, if he can reliably locate that curve for a strike, hitters have to swing at it. It's a hard pitch to hit well - maybe not as hard now as it was, but it's still hard. You can still see the curve coming, but now  you know you have to treat it as a strike, and swing appropriately.

The low-velocity fastball and fastball/change location issues will still cause him problems, but at least having the curve as a strike will keep the hitters guessing. A hitter having to protect against the curve will not have as good of timing on the fastball, and as a result that pitch becomes more effective (not as effective as it would be if it were 5 mph faster, but still effective). Right now, the hitter can disregard the curve, and as a result sit dead-red on the fastball. When I go to the batting cages, I can hit a 80 mph fastball once I get adjusted to the speed. I'm pretty sure that I could face Barry Zito right now and get him to throw curveballs into a "hafta" count and then make contact w/ the pitching machine fastball he tosses. Since I am a giants fan however, I would almost certainly ground it to the third baseman.

End result: Zito w/ curve in the strike zone, velocity issues, and fastball/change location issues  = league average or slightly better pitcher.

Zito w/o curve in the strike zone, velocity issues, and location issues = someone who probably wouldnt have even made his college team.

So why isn't his curve in the 'zone? I don't know... that's not my job. What baffles me however is why the people who's job it is don't seem to see where he is at. It seems to me that watching Zito throw a bullpen session, I could tell you if his curve was going for strikes or not. If it's not, no reason to start him until it is. It's pretty simple. If you can't throw strikes in warm-up, you aren't going to be able to in the game.

If he can throw his curve for strikes in the bullpen but not in the game, that is a whole 'nother issue, and one for the psychologists.

Of course, Pitch F/x could show that I am completely full of it, but I doubt it.