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E. Velez

After a player goes 0 for 5 and makes a game-flubbing error, it's probably best to wait a day to evaluate that player. I was planning to evaluate the spidery fellow known as Eugenio Velez, and then Sunday happened. Actually, the performances haven't just been limited to one game. Whiff, dink, flub. Flub, dink, whiff. It hasn't been pretty.

The Kevin Frandsen injury was a swift poke in the eye of the Giants' modest rebuilding efforts. There was, however, a small silver lining: at least the Giants would have the ability to evaluate Velez. One month in, and it's clear that Velez is fast. He also has game-changing speed. He runs the bases at a rapid rate, and he can make great time from home to first. The whole "playing baseball" thing? The early returns aren't good.

Important aside: Anyone can look awful for a month. If you watched Jeff Kent hit in September of 1997, he looked like a player who would be destined to fight and claw just to make a 25-man roster by 2000, if not sooner. Instead, Kent won an MVP in 2000. Velez won't win an MVP, but he might yet be a productive player. It's never fair to judge a player based on one month.

But I'm not optimistic. Velez can put a jolt into about every twentieth swing, and I'm sure that hard contact showed up a lot more in Augusta and Norwich. That, combined with his spectacular speed, is why the Giants were excited about a mid-20s minor league Rule 5 pick in the first place. It's why his strong spring excited a lot of us. Watching Velez hit against major league pitching this past April, however, we've had to wade through a lot of unpleasantness to get to any sort of excitement. He's like the "Showgirls" of major league hitters.

The swing: awkward. Unless he guesses right, Velez's swing can take some weird paths to the ball.

The plate discipline: needs improvement. This isn't just about walks or working the count, either. Velez will chase low pitches when he needs a fly ball, and he'll chase high pitches when it'd be a good idea to put the ball on the ground. He'll flail at pitches early in the count against pitchers having control issues, and he'll allow control pitchers to put him in an early hole. I don’t have stats to back all that up, mind you, so don’t take it as gospel. In the court of anecdotal amateur opinion, though, Velez is guilty of third-degree flailing.

The defense: You'll laugh; you'll cry; you'll wonder if the guy has hooves instead of opposable thumbs.

The conclusion: This isn't the time for conclusions -- just hand-wringing concern. The only prescription is more Ray Durham and, ye gods, that's a fever that can kill you.

I wish that Frandsen were healthy and that Velez was plying his trade in Fresno this season. I still have that same begrudging optimism with Frandsen that I did with Lance Niekro and Todd Linden. I have to be right one of these days. But I'm not sure if AAA would really help a 26-year-old hitter like Velez make great strides forward, even though isn't as if he'd be repeating the level. As it is, I'm perfectly fine with continuing to play Velez regardless of the results, and I hope turns out to be the stupidest post I write all season. There are about fifty reasons why that isn't likely, and a couple of them actually have to do with Velez.

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bizarro tuffy rhodes?

i feel the need for patience because he is young, relatively speaking to service, if not solar years.
in two months, if he hasnt learned from his mistakes, then i might start shuffling his papers into the pedro feliz file

choose lincecum/ lewis in 2009

by Headhunter Rollins on May 6, 2008 10:48 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

one ticket.

Especially since the “cure” at this point is more dangerous then the disease I might even up the grace period to 3 months or so.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on May 6, 2008 11:02 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He’s like the “Showgirls” of major league hitters.

Damn. You’re having a good week.

Velez is one of those guy who, at this point, makes sense only for the Giants, as he probably wouldn’t be in the line up anywhere else. He’s likely to be just a utility guy who can’t field, but he’s got a smidgen of upside that merits regular playing time for awhile longer.

It’s a weird way to feel about a player: He’s not really any good and probably won’t be, but I want to see him play anyway. You know, just in case. Plus, he signed a ball for my son in spring training.

by Dan from NM on May 6, 2008 10:50 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Anyone can look good for a week. Check back in the dog days of August, when Grant’s servicing bums in Greyhound stations just to buy a decent lede.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on May 6, 2008 11:07 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

the "Showgirls" of major league hitters

he puts ice on his nipples?

Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com

by leftymalo on May 6, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

So you're saying...

Cowbell can’t play 2B?

by cakes on May 6, 2008 10:54 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Velez had about as miserable a game as you can have on Sunday, but I think the important thing will be to see how he reacts to that. I hope Bochy pencils him back into the lineup (though maybe, just maybe, we have better options on the roster to lead off/bat second.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on May 6, 2008 10:54 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Bocock, Burriss, Bowker and Velez

Any reason why any of these four prospects are plying their trade in The City rather than the minor leagues? What have any of them done that has earned them a spot in The Show? Give them time to learn/develop their craft in the minors.

by wilriv21 on May 6, 2008 11:01 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Bowker had a taste of the good life.

I imgaine it is geting time for him to get back to trying to hit the brakeing ball in AAA. I get the feeling he will be back.

" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.

by daveinexile on May 6, 2008 11:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

What are you saying? Velez isn't a gamer?

Optimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with winners
Pessimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with losers
My Outlook: Augusta Greenjackets FTW!!

by gianator on May 6, 2008 11:02 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

He's the fastest Giant I can remember

which makes him very exciting to watch.

by positiveuphemism on May 6, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

What is this...

Random non-sensical semi-content? Give us some legit content!

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on May 6, 2008 11:12 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Yeah

and what with this “anecdotal amateur opinion”? If Buzz Bissinger ever went online, he’d kick your ass, then point out that Velez should have never been brought up to the majors without pitching at least 400 innings at AAA.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on May 6, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Buzz Bissinger is to the Pulitzer Prize what Barry Zito is to the Cy Young Award.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on May 6, 2008 11:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Buzz Bissinger has won a Pulitzer?

Ruben Rivera: Incompetent oaf, or mad genius?

by Stuttering John Tamargo on May 6, 2008 1:47 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Sad

But true (scroll down to 1987).

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on May 7, 2008 2:16 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"if not sooner"

don’t you mean “if not later”?

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on May 6, 2008 11:20 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

No. But I added a “just” to try and improve on an awkward phrasing.

by Grant on May 6, 2008 11:34 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I gotta hand it to you Grant

You turn an awkward phrase like nobody’s business.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on May 6, 2008 11:59 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Velez the Thriller is your guy

when a tie after 9 innings is settled by a foot race.

Otherwise, not so much.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on May 6, 2008 11:32 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

He might get better...

But his minor league track record isn’t a tremendous one.

Optimists! His BABIP is pretty low for a guy with his speed that hits the ball on the ground as much as he does (GB% of 59%). He needs to work on getting walks (His BB% of 3.9% is lower than Pedro Feliz’s career BB% of 5.1%) and trying to hit more line drives (which is probably easier said than done). His LD% of 14.5% seems pretty low.

I think it comes down to that it’s really a wash between Velez and Durham right now so I’d probably continue to start Velez for the meantime. As rough of a defender as Velez has been, he’s played better at 2B defensively than Durham has.

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 11:40 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

As rough of a defender as Velez has been, he’s played better at 2B defensively than Durham has.

Is there data for that? It’s not that I doubt you; it’s just that I doubt that anyone - even Ray Ray - could be worse than Velez has been.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on May 6, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yeah

I’ll quote from a post on my site, I just wrote a blurb on it a week or so ago.

*Ray Durham Defense Tangent: Durham’s Revised Zone Rating of .657 is amazingly bad. That means that Durham is only converting 65.7% of balls hit into his zone into outs. Compare him to chronic bad defenders Dan Uggla (73.5%) and Jeff Kent (82.1%) and you get an idea of just how bad Durham is. Eugenio Velez is no gold-glover, but in 114 innings at 2B, his rate of (76.5%) while still poor, is much better than Durhams’. There is no reason to play Durham right now, both offensively and defensively.

Since then, Durham has up-ticked to around 68% something, which is still very poor. He’s hitting slightly better now than when I wrote that, too, but not enough to say that he’s a clear starter at 2B at this point.

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 11:54 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

solid

thanks much.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on May 6, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Xanthan, two questions: 1) How is Revised Zone Rating measured compared to Zone Rating? I’m not the stat geek, so I’m unclear as to the difference. 2) If that blurb was written a week ago, and Velez has had a pretty rough week defensively, has his Revised ZR dropped to the point where he’s a wash defensively with Durham? I’m not at all doubting your stats, just curious as to your thoughts.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on May 6, 2008 12:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hey Kits,

Velez has dropped to a 75% RZR rating, which isn’t so hot either. But, I think he’s clearly more mobile than Durham is at this stage in his career. His hands might be a problem for him but I wouldn’t call Durham’s hands tremendous either.

RZR is different from plain ole’ regular ZR because it handles the zone slightly different. From the Hardball Times Glossary:

Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn’t include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn’t give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve Zone Ratings substantially. To get a full picture of a player’s range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ). You can read more about the Revised Zone Ratings in this article.

A great article can be found here on RZR.

I should have included OOZ, or out of zone plays, because it’ll help give you a better picture in combination with RZR.

Name     OOZ     INN
Durham    3      140
Velez     1      148

I’m actually surprised that Durham has more OOZ plays than Velez, because I’m sure that Velez has to be more mobile. Maybe better positioning or some such? I think I’d still take Velez for now but Durham has closed the gap slightly.

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   1 recs

Interesting. Thanks much.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on May 6, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

To my eye, Velez does have ridiculously limited range for someone so quick.

by Evan on May 6, 2008 12:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

That said, 150 innings just isn’t very many.

by Evan on May 6, 2008 12:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Small Sample Caveat Included

Yeah, it’s a drop in the bucket. Durham wasn’t that bad last year and he’ll surely improve on that.

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

sorry

When I scrolled down and saw OOZ, I thought you were making a TMNT reference and how Velez got oozed around a jack rabbit.

My bad xanthan.

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on May 6, 2008 12:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

The Secret of the Out of Zone Play!

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Will Vanilla Ice be making a cameo?

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on May 6, 2008 12:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Not sure how much stock anyone here puts in fielding %, but Ray Ray’s is .987 and Velez is .970. Velez’ Zone Rating is .704 to Durham’s .681. Durham’s Range Factor is 4.80 to Velez’ 3.94.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on May 6, 2008 11:54 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

For me, even if the perception is that he’s a better fielder (no matter if the data supports it), that’s enough. With Velez, at least you can hope for improvement. Ray is all downhill from here.

Still doesn’t dull the pain from Sunday, though. From my blog on Sunday:

The young Giants have added a bit of excitement to the team this season. Emmanuel Burris’ smackdown on Carlos Ruiz at home plate to score in the fourth inning of today’s game against the Phillies is something we haven’t seen much of with the elder Giants of recent years (wouldn’t want to break a hip, see). The effects of that play will be felt in the clubhouse for a while – that kind of thing can charge up a team. And it may have made Ruiz nervous during the top of the eighth inning when Aaron Rowand charged the plate on Jose Castillo’s triple – Ruiz appeared to shy away from hard contact.

But on the flipside, the young guys are error prone. Today’s example: Eugenio Velez. In the top of the 5th, Velez failed to dig out Jose Castillo’s throw from third on Eric Bruntlett’s grounder with no outs. Castillo was credited with an error, but it could just have rightly belonged to Velez.

And then in the bottom of the ninth, with the score tied and two out, Velez let a routine grounder go under his glove, to allow the winning run to score from second base. Ouch.

This is a game that easily could have gone to the Giants. At this point in the season, Velez has to make those plays. I am no fan of Ray Durham (especially his defense), but if Velez keeps this up, I may want to see some more of Ray, and less of Velez (I know – the horror!).

Velez will have at least tomorrow off to ponder his play today. Let’s hope he spends some time working on his fielding basics.

It's my blarg! Quick Pitch

by can of corn on May 6, 2008 11:56 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Amen

“For me, even if the perception is that he’s a better fielder (no matter if the data supports it), that’s enough. With Velez, at least you can hope for improvement. Ray is all downhill from here.”

by natteringnabob on May 6, 2008 7:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Velez Vs Ray

Is basically a wash – however Velez may get better, Ray won’t.

We have all season to find out, and I am in favor of watching velez to see what happens.

He has a really low BABIP, which makes me think he’s been a bit unlucky as well. Hit a few balls really hard right at people.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on May 6, 2008 12:23 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Ray might improve upon his dismal start, and horrid 2007. But your point is a valid one, i think.

Adopted papa of a bouncing new waiver wire 27 year old. Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on May 6, 2008 12:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Maybe his low BABIP comes from swinging at pitcher’s pitches (ie the first pitch in the dirt when there are runners on and Velez’ job is ‘to move the runners over.’ To which, his response is to wail at the first pitch, in the dirt, ands ground out to 3b, runners hold.

by allfrank on May 6, 2008 3:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Unfortunately his low BABIP is right in line with what you would expect it to be given his LD% of 14.5%. His infield hit percentage seems low for a guy of his speed, though. Maybe a few more singles are coming his way.

by jc2125 on May 6, 2008 6:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Frandsen

i’m not sure how much Frandsen’s injury affected things. If Frandsen’s healthy, I’d think he’d be at 3B and the team would still have the Durham or Velez decision at 2B.

Grant, to be fair to Velez, you should have mentioned how well he runs.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on May 6, 2008 12:40 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I think Frandsen’s injury is probably the worst break this year. I feel bad for him because he is missing out on a great opportunity to establish himself in the team’s plans. I feel bad for me because his injury assigned me to a year of watching Joe Castle at the hot corner.

by out machine on May 6, 2008 1:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Great post, Grant!

I’m so glad you’re finally over that whole “legitimate content” phase.

And I admit that, despite being a Velez-backer for the last 2 years, I think I’ve had my fill of Eugenio. Granted, when the choice is between him and Ray Durham, seppuku seems a much more pleasant option. But, as stated by several folks above, we can be reasonably certain that Durham will not get any better, so maybe Velez might, and he should play. I was one of those who predicted he’d start more than 100 games this year for the Giants, and I still think that will happen. I just now see that as a less pleasant experience than I had hoped.

The Frandsen injury really threw a wrench in the works at 2B. At least it prevented him from being wasted at 3B – and it had the added benefit of reminding us all how poorly Mr. Sabean has done in replacing Matthew Evan Williams at the hot corner.

And have I mentioned how much I want us to draft Gordon Beckham in the first round, and a likely slugging 3B (or even better, a slugging SS)? No, I didn’t think I had….

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on May 6, 2008 1:23 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

"*AS* a likely 3B..."

.”..sheesh, who edits this stuff?

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on May 6, 2008 1:24 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Some provider of illegitimate content.

All-Father Watch: 1.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16 Ks in 17 1/3 IP

by EliminateMe on May 6, 2008 1:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Nice admission, Lyle. I think we are all guilty, regarding one young player or another, of groundless optimism. Watching Steve’s reports from Conn. last year, seeing the BA, OBP, the SBs, I, too, thought I knew more than the guys in the front office. Well, maybe not. It is true he is not ready, not by a long ways. It is true he is getting a chance because Frandsen got hurt. It is true there are no other particularly apt options in the system. Ideally, he should learn these things in AA and AAA (if, and that is a very big IIIFFF, he will ever learn at all). I can understand, for example the pickoff where his feel slipped in the dirt, I can understand the ocassional poor throw. But as these things begin happening night after night, AND he misses a relatively easy throw from Castillo and never gets a glove on a relatively easy ground ball that leads to the winning run scoring, I begin to think to myself, “Hmmm, self, if you want to see this level of play, go see San Jose when they come to town.”
And I laugh when some other poster says “bring up___.” or “let the kids play.” There is a point at which the “kids” should be “playing” in the minors.

by allfrank on May 6, 2008 3:31 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Half-Life

If we draft Gordon, we have to make Gordon Freeman references.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Freeman

/nerd

by xanthan on May 6, 2008 1:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I think I could do that

As well as bad “Bend it like Gordon” puns.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on May 6, 2008 1:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He’d come to bat with a crowbar.

Ruben Rivera: Incompetent oaf, or mad genius?

by Stuttering John Tamargo on May 6, 2008 1:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Here you go Lyle

Have some more fuel for your fire.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on May 6, 2008 1:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout!

Oh believe me, Roger, I certainly read that.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on May 7, 2008 3:37 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Great point.

Mr. Sabean has done a pretty terrible job at the corners over the years. All I want is some average production at the corners, is that too much too ask?

by out machine on May 6, 2008 2:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Come on now

David Bell was perfectly average, and JT’s superior defense and inferior offense made him quite average as well.

by tyrannoman on May 6, 2008 2:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

The sheer number of posts bemoaning the lack of Frandsen serves to illustrate how truly bad this team is.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on May 6, 2008 1:29 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I dunno, I was looking forward to seeing him play this year. I used to think he was a gamer, but I have a feeling a real gamer would play through a ruptured achillies….

by tyrannoman on May 6, 2008 2:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

With Dreamy coming back possibly soon (I read somewhere possibly this weekend) and Bocock going back to the minors, is there a possibility that they try Burris out at second. Unfortunately I know nothing of Burris’s minor league career, but I am assuming the guy can play second.

by WilliamVanLandingham on May 6, 2008 2:13 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

God help me, every time I see E. Velez on the scoreboard I get scared that it’s actually Edgardo Velez. It’s some kind of post-traumatic symptom or something….

Boy I’m glad we don’t have that guy anymore!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 6, 2008 3:02 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Brains versus... um... something in addition to brains

Eugene Velez (screw that “ay-you-hay-knee-oh” stuff—the man’s a Eugene) is an idiot. For me, that just flat-out disqualifies someone from further consideration and employment. He doesn’t understand the basics of the game, and here he is at the major league level. He fields a ball in shallow right field, and the runner on 2nd takes the pro forma two steps toward third… Eugene, having never paid attention during boyhood games, fires the ball to the shortstop, risking a needless error. (Even Krukow criticized him for it on the air.) He doesn’t know to fall on that game-winning grounder in Philly if he can’t field it cleanly in his glove? Like, he didn’t understand the situation and hadn’t thought out what to do if these six things happen?

Generally, skills can improve (or not), but guys who simply don’t grasp the mechanics of the game by the time they hit the majors simply don’t pan out. If the Giants are going to start administering drug tests, how about also giving some baseball knowledge tests as well?

DFA all Giants over 34 years old.

by Mayor of 311 on May 6, 2008 5:52 PM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I agree completely. He negates his great speed by making boneheaded plays on the bases that even little leaguers should know are mistakes. Don’t make the first out at third base, especially in the 9th inning when you’re down by two. Don’t get picked off of first base when the tying run is on third with one out. He got picked off again tonight.

by jc2125 on May 6, 2008 6:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs