.500 a possibility? I think so.
by 25 on May 3, 2008 9:28 PM PDT
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Print"The worst Giants team in the past 25 years."
This is what I recall Ralph Barbieri calling the 2008 Giants near the end of spring training. A lot of people were saying that the same thing. Everyone expected the Giants to finish last in the division, most likely the NL, and possibly the majors. But these Giants have really improved and played with something I haven't seen since 2003...moxy. Yes, I know, its cheesy, but its true. The Giants have found themselves in some close games and some pressure situations, and although they haven't pulled through every time, they have pulled through quite a bite, and for this young team, I'm impressed. The Giants are 14-17 and 14-12 when Barry Zito isn't pitching. Even more impressive is the Giants played 12 of these games against the current best 2 teams (record-wise) in the majors, the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. The Giants went 5-7 in those 12 games and 2 of the 7 loses happened to feature Zito. So consider, the Giants are possibly Barry Zito away from being 19-12. Besides Molina, Rowand, and Lewis, no positions player is playing fantastic, but the Giants are getting their clutch hits from numerous players and the occasional rare single-game performances from guys like Aurilia, Durham, and Bowker are helping them along the way. The bullpen has improved drastically since the beginning of the season and I'm really excited to see this young ball club develop. The Giants appear to be getting better and better and if Barry Zito straightens himself out or Pat Misch turns in a consistently decent starter, the Giants could very well be on their way to a .500 or better record. Who knows?...maybe the Giants will have a .500 or better record this year and acquire some talent in the off-season to be a playoff contender next year. The post-Bonds era is looking up.
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While I too love to bring up the over-.500 record when Zito isn't pitching,
we should remember that his opponents in those games were Lowe, Sheets, Lohse, Webb, Webb, and Volquez. Considering the starts of the season of all those guys, we’d be lucky to win more than 1 of those games, regardless of who the Giants sent out there. But I think everyone is pretty excited about how un-boring this team is turning out to be.
my cousin and i got noah lowry's autograph after he came out of a porta-potty. he was nice about it.
No one
No one said the Giants would be boring. They merely said the team would be BAD.
I wasn’t as pessimistic as many. I didn’t - and don’t - expect them to lose 100 games, although I realized - and still realize - it is a possibility.
The Giants’ pitching has been good—but their hitting has been horrendous and their defense has been less than stellar. I see nothing that is likely to change that. Freddie Lewis and Aaron Rowand have been hitting over their heads, which would seem to limit the Giants’ scoring upside.
Yes
He did face some good pitchers, but that isn’t an excuse for his 7+ ERA or giving up a go-ahead double to Brandon Webb. The Giants gave him a 3-0 lead against Webb, you can’t go and give up 5 runs like that, especially 2 to Webb.
Riddle:
I wear blue and white, I arrive to baseball games in the 4th inning, I leave in the 7th inning, my team's home stadium plays movie trailers between innings, I read magazines during the game, I play with beach balls, and I love the wave.
Who am I?
boogalaboo!
if bowker has a breakout year, lewis keeps hitting like he is (i think he’s a ML starter, but he isn’t one of the best in the game), molina keeps being Clutchy McClutchClutch, the bullpen keeps saving leads, Cain, Lincecum and Sanchez keep being lights-out, and Durham/Aurilia keep contributing… see where I’m going with this? They’ve been outscored a ridiculous amount, it’d take a lot for this team to finish .500. If they’re close in the first half, they could possibly improve enough in the second. Hopefully that means good second halves from Bowker, Schierholtz, Velez, Lewis and Ortmeier, and not Sanchez-for-Matsui or something else that doesn’t help much in the future….
I’m pondering a more important question: what kind of collapse would it take toi get Sabean fired?
Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.
How?
How in the world is John Bowker going to have a breakout year? His breakout season was 2007 at Connecticut, and this year is all about him keeping it up and showing that 2007 wasn’t a fluke. John’s chances of breaking out two years in a row seem quite slim to me. I don’t think he his truly major-league ready yet.
the team has an 11-19 pythag. It’d take a lot of luck for them to finish anywhere near .500.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I enjoyed April as much as anyone
but I think this month is the high end of the performance scale for this lineup. Lowry and Correia are both out and Cain left the game with some kind of “muscle tightness”, so if the bullpen has to pick up yet more slack I think this month’s performance will be very, very hard to repeat.
by natteringnabob on May 4, 2008 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Pythag slurps manroot...
because it’s not game-context sensitive. Games not started by Zito the Giants RA/Gm is close to 4. With Zito starting it’s over 6. So with a club that scores only 3.26 RPG offensively, you’ll more surely lose in a Zito game and you’ll winn more non-Zito games than just looking at total R and RA would suggest.
I’m too lazy to do the math but it does make an appreciable difference over a month or season I believe.
You can’t just remove games from a team’s overall record, though. And a lot of the runs allowed in Zito’s starts were his fault, but there was some horrible defense played in those games too. It’s not all Zito’s fault that the RA in those games are so high.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
Er, but if you’re going to throw out their worse pitching performances than you should throw out their worst hitting performances too, right?
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
Your point is a good one
Your point is a good one—except that it is also a bad one. Yes, Zito and Hennessey have hurt the Giants’ Pythagorean record. But they also can’t hit a lick.
The one thing I believe DOES bode well for the Giants are on pace to score just 537 runs, whereas based on my rough formula for runs scored - which tends to work out pretty close by the end of the year - their .689 OPS projects to 628 runs based on the formula 450 + 200 (OPS – .600).
Yes, the Giants have given away a lot of outs on the bases this season, but it appears they will score more runs as the season goes along. If the pitching holds up, the Giants’ actual record and their Pythagoran record should reach more congruity, which should be good for their keeping up their present win pace, which is 71.
I think they will wind up a bit below that number—but not so far below that they lose 100 games.
Hennessey’s a better hitter than Bocock.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
Just noticed
The G-men haven’t hung an L on another team’s #1 starter yet this year, have they? Barry Zito, the gift that keeps on giving. Like Herpes.
Did you mean Herges?
Meh, same difference, I suppose.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 4, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
So far
the bullpen has been the big surprise for the 2008 Giants (save Hennessey). The offense has sucked, but didn’t suck enough to let us lose like 20 games. Gotta love the fact that Lewis seems to have taken LF for the rest of the season.
.500 and second place is the worst thing that could happen to this team in June/July
Can you imagine the moves Sabean might make if the team is in second place and above .500? Unless Lewis AND Bowker turn into the next Matt Hollidays this team is not good. it has shut down pitchers that can win games, and a good ‘pen that can preserve leads, but it is not a playoff bound team.
Second/third place, 9 games back from 1st and 7 back from the WC, but above 500 will make Sabean and Front office think this team is a contender for the wild card. Valdez and Sanchez get traded for Big Matsui and Little Matsui. the strength of the team is weakened and the non-offense becomes a bad offense. the pythag catches up with the team, it crumbles in the later half of the year, and another year of rebuilding is forfeited.
I am excited about this team now, and the players on it. i’m loving the pitching duels, close games, and 8/9/10th inning excitement. part of the fun is the lowered expectations, a late inning loss isn’t as crushing and a win of any kind an amazing rush!
still, the best thing for the vets (winn, durham) to do is hit meaningless homeruns, and rbis to build their trade value, catch a couple of prospects in a trade and make room for Schierholtz , Velez (and Fransden-chance in 08 and supersub Castillo/Leono). IF everyone plays out of their heads and above their projections, then I’ll hapilly eat crow and cheer the Giants in the playoffs, but in the meantime please no Valdez for Aubrey Huff deals.
Adopted papa of a bouncing new waiver wire 27 year old. Castillo hits doubles.
+1
I too have had the horrible thought that playing .500 or above (especially if the Ginats are within sneezing distance of a wild card) will provide a horrible temptation to the FO to make some “moves”. And not all the right ones. I’ll be very surprised if they were that close and decided to become sellers at the deadline to get rid of “veteran savvy”- I don’t think they have it in them.
If some of these guys are indeed better than AAAA as they now appear, it would be nice to find out with them in SF unis rather than watching from other cities as the “remodeled” Veteran Gamer Ginats are swept in the playoffs.
by natteringnabob on May 4, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
the low point for me was Matt Cain's
start in the home opener….i thought they might lose 120 games…..but now the team is
definitely worth watching…even if none of the Big 3 are starting, there’s F. Lewis, Velez,
B. Wilson, Merkin, and even Burriss to watch…..and Rowand and Molina and arent too bad either…..
.500 would be nice, but id still settle for 70 wins if the young players continue to show promise…...
The pitching is good the offense is bad
This really isn’t a surprise. I’ve always said that this team wasn’t going to be historically bad because of their pitching. They almost certainly won’t finish above .500. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they were close. 85 losses or so. I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all…
Only 941 games until the end of Zito's contract
However
a lot of people said the OFFENSE at least would be historically bad, and it hasn’t been. It hasn’t been close to good, but it hasn’t been close to historically bad either.
Speaking of...
Where’s our guy performing the running tally on the Giants vs. that sucky Colt team?
Id like to see how we’re doing.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 4, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
The infield offense has been historically bad. Randy Winn… also terrible: .257/.310/.317 from a corner OF position.
The only reason the offense is merely “seasonally” bad (i.e, near worst in the league) is these guys:
Player 2008 career
Molina .296/.324/.480 .275/.309/.413
Rowand .337/.383/.531 .287/.345/.464
Lewis .320/.402/.524 .282/.377/.420 MINORS
I expect all those guys to drop 20 or so points off their batting average (with concomitant reductions in OBP/SLG) before the season is over.
I suppose you could argue that the rest of the team might pick that slack, and we will merely continue to be last in the majors in runs/game (3.3, just behind SDs. 3.4).
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
Don't get ahead of ourselves
Look, I’d love to see this Giants team play well enough to make the postseason as much as anyone. Is it likely to happen? I’d bet not. But looking that far ahead is pretty ridiculous. Let’s just enjoy where we are at the moment. The pitching’s been very good, we’re seeing development from some of our hitters, and Brian Bo’Cock has played great defense. Just enjoy the fact that we don’t completely suck.
Don’t be thrilled with mediocrity, but be pleased that we’re seeing development. At this point, that’s really all we can ask.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
I agree that talking about finishing .500 is premature-projection-lation.
The first thing we should be asking ourselves is if The Giants will finish out of plast place in the NL West (which is where most thought they’d finish).
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
and still do
I don’t think Colorado’s this bad, though it is entirely possible that San Diego is. Right now we’re only two games away from the worst record in baseball and we only seem to have 3 starting pitchers. I don’t think we need to let our fancy fly too far.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
Rog,
I’m one of those people who think this might be our only chance to let our fancy fly, so I say “Fly fancy, fly far away!!”
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Not so much...
http://www.geocities.com/odetobobbiegentry/lyric/lfancy.htm
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
I’ve really enjoyed watching them so far. The young starting pitching, the young position players, the bullpen, the speed. They have a shot at .500, but probably that’s asking for too much. They are moving into an easier part of their schedule right now, and this will probably raise expectations even more. I just want them to continue playing well, and five unearned runs today is not what I have in mind.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
How?
Mark, how can you want the Giants to CONTINUE to play well, when they haven’t played well to date?
As for today, yeah, pretty awful. But remember that young teams are likely to make an above-average number of mistakes.
That said, I think the Giants have played exciting ball so far. They just haven’t played particularly GOOD ball.
When I said they’re “playing well,” I mean compared to the expectations most Giants’ fans have had for this season, particularly you, who I believe has predicted 100 losses for this season. I myself expected a record around the same as last year’s. I certainly don’t mean playing well compared to elite major league teams. They just finished a series on the road against one of the best teams in the league, and they easily could have swept these games. I would think most Giant fans would have expected the Phillies to bomb the Giants all over their bandbox of a ballpark. They more than held their own, which is something they have done all season.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
100 losses? Not
Mark, you’re a great guy, but you rarely know what it is that I said. In actuality while I agreed there was a POSSIBILITY the Giants could lose 100 games, I predicted they wouldn’t do so. My expectation was about 95 to 97 losses.
The Giants are on pace for 91 losses. Their Pythagorean record is on pace for 107 losses. With my prediction of 95 to 97 losses (Let’s just call my estimate 96 losses, to simplify.) in the middle, I’m still feeling pretty comfortable with it.
I’m even comfortable with my prediction that while the Giants could easily THREATEN the 556 runs scored by the 1985 Giants team that lost 100 games for the only time in franchise history, I didn’t expect them to fall below that total. Now in truth, the Giants thus far are on pace to score just 537 runs, my OPS formula has them projected at 628 runs based on their present .689 OPS.
I could be wrong on both accounts, naturally, but it wouldn’t shock me if I got them both right.
By the way, I don’t mean to criticize you for not remembering my prediction. You and I both read a LOT of predictions, and it is hard to keep track of everyone’s.
As for the Giants/Phillies series, I wouldn’t have been shocked if the Giants had taken two out of three with both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum going. But you are correct that they were playing a very good team and were doing so on the road, so the most likely outcome was probably one win for the Giants, just as occurred.
The best thing the Giants have going for them is that their 14-18 record has come despite playing pretty good teams overall. The most negative factor is that they have been outscored by over a run per game on average, which could project fewer wins in the future.
I would also consider it a positive factor that the Giants have won 14 games even while scoring 18 runs FEWER than my OPS formula predicts. Just as it is true that the Giants will likely either cut their run differential or not win as many games as they are on pace for record-wise, it is also true that if the Giants are able to keep up their .689 OPS, they will likely score more runs than the 537 they are on pace to score.
Yes, the Giants held their own against the Phillies over the weekend. I just wish the Giants’ “own” were a lot better. :)
By the way, I was flattered when you said that the highest compliment you could pay Lincecum was that he had lived up to my expectations. And as you may have seen from my post earlier today on our usual board, I am predicting good times for Cain now—assuming his hamstring isn’t a big problem.
I think the Giants may hold Matt back until Saturday, using Barry Zito Thursday. With future days off, the Giants could then hold Barry Zito back an extra day, placing him in between Lincecum and Cain in the rotation and eliminating what could be Sanchez, Misch and Zito on three straight days.
The talk is how the Giants will be facing six straight lefties this week. They may wind up starting three straight southpaws themselves.
Not
The 2008 version is very likely NOT the worst Giants team in 25 years—although it might wind up being the worst in 23 years. The 1985 Giants lost 100 games, the only time in franchise history that has happened.
This year’s version likely isn’t that bad (utility infielder Luis Quinones didn’t hit any better than Brian Bocock and Manny Burriss, and might have been even WORSE), but it isn’t very good either.
To put things in perspective, not much was expected from the A’s, whose hitting is as poor and as powerless as the Giants’. But the A’s draw walks and get runners on base—and some of them score, allowing the A’s to outscore the Giants by 55 runs entering play today. And while the Giants’ pitching has been good, the A’s hurling has a combined ERA that is three-quarters of a run lower than the Giants.
The Giants’ pitching is good, but the A’s has been much better. The A’s hitting isn’t particularly good—but they score runs. The Giants’ hitting his horrid, and as expected they don’t score many runs.
The Giants are likely fortunate to have won as many gaves as they have won.
The A's
OPS+ is 102. The A’s offense is decent, but it’s not as good as their runs scored total might imply.
They have been very good / lucky at hitting with men on base, and RISP. The A’s total batting line is 255 .341 .365 .707. With RISP, 320 .421 .436 .857. With men on base, 288 .377 .401 .777.With the bases empty, 227 .310 .335 .645.
They have scored 156 runs. Based on their component stats, Baseball Prospectus has them scoring 134 runs instead.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
131
My OPS formula, which is much simpler and less accurate than BP’s formula, has them scoring 131 runs. But the A’s have built their record primarily on their great pitching, anyway. I expected the A’s to outhit the Giants (along with pretty much every other team), but I didn’t expect them to outpitch the Giants by a run per game.
Yeah
The A’s have been winning more games than they should, I think. However, this is just another instance of Beane outshining Sabean. For Beane to sell the farm (or, rather, key contributors) and still have a better team than his counterpart is just another source of embarrassment for Sabean.
Only 940 games until the end of Zito's contract
I am a convert
Five years ago I still believed Brian was in the same class with Billy. Now I realize how wrong I was. Even if the Giants seem oblivious to the truth.
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