Draft IV: Pushing Tim
According to MLB.com, Tim Beckham is the best all-around athlete in the draft. Scouts have drawn comparisons to Justin Upton, and though Upton was a better overall prospect, Beckham will likely be able to play shortstop in the majors. Beckham is a high school shortstop, and his biggest str...
Did you hear that? It sounded like an air-raid siren combined with Ralph Barbieri getting his foot stuck in a luggage carousel. Weird.
Anyways, Upton is certainly a talented prospect, but he'll certainly need some quality development time. As a high schooler, he slapped around opposing pitchers, but a couple of scouts think his swing will need to be refined, and there's....
There it goes again. Sirens. And now there are flashing lights. A baritone voice is trying to tell us someth...oh, I get it. You're worried about the Giants using their first round pick on a high school hitter. Their legacy of doom will do that.
I'd like to think that some hitters are so talented, that even the Giants can't screw them up. Then I think of Chili Davis, the last high school hitter drafted by the Giants to make an All-Star team. When he was drafted, I was still wetting the bed. (The same can be said about my relationship to Arturo McDowell, but, c'mon; that was college. Don't judge me.) At some point, the inability of the Giants to produce any hitters from the high school ranks might have been described as a combination of bad luck and poor decision-making; now it's just morbidly amusing.
The upside is there, though. If Beckham develops according to plan, he'll be an athletic shortstop with enough power for the middle of the order. He isn't quite a can't-miss prospect out of high school -- like Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, or Justin Upton, to name three -- but Beckham isn't as untested and uncertain as a guy like Matt Bush, either. A 30/30 shortstop hitting third in the order? A 20/20 shortstop hitting second? A .300/.400/.400 shortstop leading off? He doesn't have to be Alex Rodriguez of be worth the fifth pick in the draft. Some folks, like Keith Law, think Beckham is easily the most talent player in the draft. He'll probably go before the Giants get a chance to pick him.
High school hitters are the football. The draft is Lucy. The Giants are Charlie Brown. It's probably worth noting that Charlie Brown did manage to kick the ever loving crap out of Lucy's hand in one strip. I'm not sure what that does to the metaphor. Regardless of past organizational failures, though, the Giants should draft Beckham if he's the highest player on their draft board. It's entirely plausible for three or four hitters to go before the Giants even get a chance. If Beckham's still around, the Giants shouldn't get cold feet because of past failures.
I think. Maybe. Possibly. I don't know.
Links:
Rise Mag profile on Beckham
MLB.com draft report
Brewerfan.net profile
Baseball America article
Atlanta Journal-Constitution article
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45 comments
Comments
Primero!
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 8:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But also.
No on Tim Beckham. Too much work. Angel Villalona is enough of a project for us.
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we have the skill?
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We already have!
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, OK, with new front office people!
by xanthan on May 27, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another yelled out phrase!
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting point
fairley, villalona, and bumgarner are all forever away. I know the Giants wont win soon..but, you need to mix in him higher probability guys. which, is why it sounds like giants will go with a colleger hitter – Smoak, Gordon B. or Posey
by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes to Tim, but I’m not sure he’ll be around.
by xanthan on May 27, 2008 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Whilst there may be concerns, given our track record, i don’t think you can shy away, especially with a good talent like Beckham. Also, he’d be on a decent timetable with a lot of our other best prospects.
I’d rather have Alvarez & Smoak, but i’d certainly be very happy with Tim. I think though, that like Alvarez, he’ll be gone before we get to pick. I’m certainly hoping for one of the three to be available to us.
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by GiantFan on May 27, 2008 8:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure exactly where I’d rank Beckham. I certainly wouldn’t be disappointed if they took him.
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by jponry on May 27, 2008 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope that metaphor you were talking about comes through with this result:

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE⢠returns!
by SoFa King Mike on May 27, 2008 9:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
you don't know the joy...
As someone who broke his wrist when a “friend” pulled a Lucy on me (yes, you really do have your legs pointing up at the sky, just like in the cartoon), you’ve brought me untold misbegotten joy.
I got one word for you: "youneverknow"
by senorvegas on May 27, 2008 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know what that metaphor means, but I hate that bitch.
Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE⢠returns!
by SoFa King Mike on May 27, 2008 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"If you ever want to sleep at night, don't marry a beautiful girl."
Nicely done, Grant.
No to Tim Beckham. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for power in the majors, and with a #5 pick I want a power pitcher or power hitter. (I’m not certain he’ll hit for average, either).
Guys like Beckham would be terrific picks in the 20-25 range. At #5, I’d much rather have Smoak, Alvarez, or G. Beckham.
And why do I flash to Royce Clayton when I read “Tim Beckham?”
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by Lyle on May 27, 2008 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Same number of syllables?
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m sure that’s all it is….
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Beckham married Posh Spice, and the Rolls-Royce is posh?
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on May 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could all the best hitters be gone?
I’m kind of getting concerned that all the best hitting prospects could be off the table before the Giants draft. Is that a real concern, or is it not at all likely?
Because if they draft a pitcher, I’m rooting for the Giants to lose out the rest of the season so we can get that first pick next year!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on May 27, 2008 9:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My worst case scenario would be...
1. Rays – Alvarez
2. Pirates – Smoak
3. Royals – T. Beckham
4. Orioles – Hosmer
(The exact order doesn’t matter, just the fact that the best hitters are gone)
This leaves us with:
5. Giants – Skipworth? G. Beckham? Posey? Alonso? A dreaded Pitcher?
Any of the four hitters the Giants could choose from in this scenario are not bad picks by any means but I consider them to be in the next tier below the top four. Somehow I think Matusz sneaks into the top four, perhaps to the Orioles, which leaves another hitter available to us. If the rumored pick of Posey going to the Rays turns out to be true, another top four hitter will drop to us. If G. Beckham also goes before the Giants pick… Woo Hoo!... Jackpot!
by baseballjunkie on May 27, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unless it's Parker Posey. Then, yum.
(Yes, this is basically a recycled joke I used elsewhere. I’m ecological and stuff.)
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on May 27, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And my best case scenario...
1. Rays – Posey. The rumors refuse to die… maybe there is really something to them.
2. Pirates – G. Beckham. Good and “safe” up the middle pick even if he has to move to 2nd. Better bet to reach his ceiling (albeit a lower one than the other Beckham). More affordable than Alvarez.
3. Royals – Crow. Local angle. Royals must have seen him at his best, which is really, really good.
Starting to pick things up after a rough stretch.
4. Orioles – Matusz. Regarded as the best college arm and best arm overall. Could flip flop in order with Crow if both Orioles and Royals want arms.
Please give me a “snap out of it slap” if I am totally moonstruck and there is no way this could ever happen.
by baseballjunkie on May 27, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it could possibly happen.....
I don’t see Alvarez falling past the Pirates, despite being a Boras client. And I think the Royals will grab Tim Beckham if he falls to them (and if Posey goes #1) because Moustakas isn’t a sure thing to stick at short and the Royals need help in the middle infield anyway.
by baetown415 on May 27, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i’m just not certain how sure the Rays are about Dioner Navarro as their long-term backstop
by baetown415 on May 27, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be perfectly happy getting Skipworth in that situation as I think he fits in that Top 4 group and some scouts seem to believe he has the highest ceiling of any of that group. Of course, high school catchers have a bad track record, but still I wouldn’t be tearing out what’s left of my hair with a Skipworth pick like I was last year.
That said, I don’t believe Smoak will go in the first 4 picks.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 27, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right about Smoak...
but I, like you, would not be disappointed about getting Skipworth. But if he has a truly special bat it is probably just a matter of time before he is moved off of the catcher position to maximize his hitting abilities. And if he is only able to move to 1st base the thought process could involve how he matches up offensively and defensively with Smoak, Hosmer, Alonso, etc.
On the whole, I feel really good about the Giants’ chances of obtaining a good hitter in the first round. I hope it is not a case of irrational exuberance in thinking it would be pretty hard for the Giants to screw up with their 1st round pick.
The real key with this draft is whether or not the Giants are able to restock their minor league system with quality position prospects in the supplemental round and beyond. This seems to be a pretty deep draft class so it is imperative that the Giants address the biggest needs of their system…hint to the management: Pitching is not one of them!
In no way am I an expert at building a team but I think that maybe the Giants need to gamble a bit. They can make some safe college picks as they have always done in the past, and also unearth some pitching gems in later rounds as they have shown they can, but what do they have to lose from also taking a few gambles? Why not take a chance on:
-An injured player as long as it is not definitely career threatening… e.g. Tanner Scheppers or Sonny Gray. Let’s be like the Yanks with Brackman, Angels with Adenhart, and ourselves with Brian Wilson.
-Any talented player who has dropped due to signability issues… e.g. Xavier Avery. Again let’s be like the big fish… the Yanks, Red Sox, and Tigers.
-Prospects whose stocks have dropped due to a poor season… e.g. Harold Martinez (lure him away from college with some $$),
-A tools guy… e.g. Anthony Hewitt (someday they will just have to get it right),
-An iffy character guy with talent… e.g. Lonnie Chisenhall,
-A one dimensional player with that one dimension being pretty impressive… e.g. Kyle Russell,
-A talented conundrum… e.g. Chris Dominguez
This could be Brian Sabean’s last hurrah. If the Giants are genuinely intent upon rebuilding their farm system they can’t go the safe route and restock with organizational filler.
by baseballjunkie on May 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
This could be Brian Sabeanās last hurrah. If the Giants are genuinely intent upon rebuilding their farm system they canāt go the safe route and restock with organizational filler.
In 2006, the year Brian first proclaimed the intention of rebuilding the farm system, that’s exactly what they did. Outside of Lincecum, every selection was an athletic, defense 1st, older solid player who profiles as a role player or org filler. That was the draft of Burriss, Bocock, Rohlinger, Pill, Felmy, McBryde… as steady of bunch of filler as you could hope for and nary a high upside risk in the group.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 27, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I guess you could do just that...
Rebuild a farm system with filler, as the Giants have shown they can do well, yet lose sight of the ultimate goal, which is a world series winning major league team.
by baseballjunkie on May 27, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or even “winning major league team.” I might just settle for that for now.
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by can of corn on May 27, 2008 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft 'em
Our next GM needs talent to work with.
Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.
by tedfordfan on May 27, 2008 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
There are some who call me...
It all plays into the Giants organizational philosophy of drafting Tims in the 1st round.
by mxmob33 on May 27, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
College First Baseman
That linked article on the overall godliness of College First Baseman (Smoak thread) and the general unimpressive-ness of High School Shortstops pretty much has me sold on taking either Smoak or Alonso if Alvarez isn’t available.
by Change Up on May 27, 2008 11:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d probably lean toward Smoak or Alvarez if they’re available, but Tim Beckham is pretty much too good to pass up otherwise. And, hell, some people think he’s the best prospect in the draft, so I wouldn’t argue if the Giants took him no matter who’s left on the board.
The Giants’ poor track record with young hitters does give me pause, though.
by Dan from NM on May 27, 2008 11:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not Matusz or Crow.....
Hopefully either Alvarez, Beckham, Smoak, or Posey falls to #5. The Giants have stocked up on good arms, and they need an impact position player (yes, Posey counts). All we need is for one of the top 4 teams to take Matusz and we’ll be guaranteed one of these 4 guys.
by baetown415 on May 27, 2008 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Unscientifically based hopes:
Bear in mind all my info comes from here, so take this as you will.
It seems to me that Smoak and Alvarez are the moast polished/advanced hitters available. It seems like Pedro will go earlier due to his big name agent and want for monies. Smoak seems like the ticket.
HS hitters frighten me. We already have a high upside project in Angel, I don’t want two – I want one that might have a lower potential ceiling but a higher chance of making positive contributions.
KTHXBYE
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on May 27, 2008 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well jeez..
If you want to get specific about it, why not just get someone with a high potential ceiling and a high chance of making positive contributions?
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by WalrusMan on May 27, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either my sarcasm meter is broken...
Or my post came across the wrong way.
What I was getting at is that of the talked about top choices, Smoak seemed like the best idea. I attempted to give my supporting reasons (fail), so take it as you will.
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on May 27, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes to beckham. And whether i’d prefer him to smoak or alvarez doesn’t really matter because the Giants will be lucky if just one of those three falls to them. For the record though, I’d say 1) Alvarez 2) Beckham 3) Smoak, but thrilled to have any one of them.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on May 27, 2008 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Angel's Position
Smoak has some serious power and a beautiful swing. The guy could be up quickly, and although it’s seemingly a foregone conclusion that Angel is going to first, presumably the Giants could make an effort to give him a long look at third if Smoak turns out to be the real deal.
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by shn155 on May 27, 2008 2:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Smoak
There is one note of concern with Smoak that should be pointed out here. He did struggle very badly last summer with Team USA in what amounted to his first experience with higher level competition. He hit .223 and apparently had a great deal of difficulty with off-speed pitches.
It’s hard to imagine him not having a successful MLB career, but in all the love let’s not forget he still has things to learn. Let’s not be expecting him to be in our (or somebody’s) ‘09 starting lineup.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 27, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE
that is an inaccurate statement. Smoak was the Cape Cod player of the year after his Freshman year. So, Team USA is not his first high level of competition. But, he did struggle. Also, lets remember that it isnt easy to play 70 games during the spring and then go out and play 25 over the summer for team USA..also alvarez and wallace hit much better
by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cape Cod league isn’t much removed from the showcases that players like Smoak have been playing in for years by the time they reach college. The players are all just about the same age, same level of experience. Team USA is playing against frequently older, more experienced and sometimes even professional competition. That is what I meant by higher level of competition, poorly articulated as it may have been.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 27, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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