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Draft III: Smoakin in the Draft Room

On the traditional scouting scale of 20-to-80, Justin Smoak tops out at a full 80 in the all-important punability category. Just think of the possibilities! A splash hit becomes Smoak in the water. Throw a pitch right down the pipe, and he'll Smoak it. It would be the funniest five minutes in the history of the site. This paragraph counts for one of those minutes. Hope you enjoyed it.

He can hit, too. After a slow start, Smoak is hitting .389/.509/.758 for the season. He has 20 home runs, and a 51-26 BB/K ratio in 211 at-bats. He's a switch-hitter with power from both sides. Sweet mercy....

Baseball Prospectus had this quote from a scout:

"You have to feel very strongly about the bat to consider a player like that with a single-digit pick, or I guess feel as uncertain about the other choices. Middle-of-the-diamond guys give you way more margin for error," he continued. "First base, you have to be an animal in the big leagues, so you better be awfully sure about these guys."

Ah, but this is the Giants organization. The bar is loooow. The last great first baseman was 15 years ago. Since then, we've been tickled pink just to have a bucket full of average. The legacy of pain extends from Todd Benzinger to the present day. If Smoak comes up and hits .280/.360/.470 for six seasons, he'll have his face on ballpark-giveaway crap for the next three decades. He should do more, though. From Rany Jazayerli's fantastic series on the amateur draft:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

If the Giants leave this draft without a first baseman from the first two rounds, it might be a disappointment. But there are about six or seven first basemen who could go in the first round, and surely one or two will slip to the 37th overall pick. It might be smart to take a premium-position guy like Gordon Beckham or Buster Posey with the #5, and hope that David Cooper or Allan Dykstra slips to #37. That's a dangerous game, though. If the Giants believe that Smoak could be on the only-71-minor-league-games path of the previous first baseman drafted by the Giants in the first round, they shouldn't think twice.

And what of Angel Villalona? The 17-year-old is surely supposed to be the first baseman of the future. Fair point, but this is only worth writing once, as Yonder Alonso and Eric Hosmer still need to be reviewed: Angel Villalona shouldn't make any difference with whom the Giants draft in 2008. The dude's 17. Smoak should be in the majors in two or three years. Villalona will be 20. When Smoak is hitting his arbitration years, Villalona will be 23. Maybe the Giants will have a McCovey/Cepeda situation before then, and they'll be forced to trade one of the two before they get expensive. There are worse fates than having to trade a young power hitter on the open market. Just pretend you've never heard the name "Ray Sadecki."

The Giants should trade their second-rounder and use their trade exception to move up and get both Smoak and Pedro Alvarez. They can throw in Ray Durham's expiring contract. But now I'm just getting greedy. If the Giants get either Smoak or Alvarez, I'd be ecstatic. Flip a coin.

Links:

Baseball America's mock draft with Smoak to the Giants
Baseball Prospectus's mock draft with Smoak to the Giants
College Baseball Blog's write-up on Smoak
MLB.com's draft report
MVN profile
A Peter Magowan quote that indicates the Giants plan to select a position player
Local puff piece on Smoak
The career stats of Desi Wilson for perspective.

0 recs  |  Comment 60 comments

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Smoak/AnVil

There has to be some way that we could get both these players on the field at the same time. Move AnVil back to 3rd and see how he does!

by ACgiant97 on May 26, 2008 9:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

or play one of them in a corner OF spot… surely, even at Mays field, one of them could handle a corner spot, right? Villalona at least is still very young—stick him on a treadmill for god’s sake and get him in shape.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on May 26, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's Possible

As far as I know the only thing keeping Villalona from playing third in the majors is his weight. More specificly his projected weight when he fills out. If he can keep the weight off I don’t see why he couldn’t play third. The Augusta radio announcer is constantly praising Villa for his skills on defense. His arm has always been good enough for third as well. Left field would be another possibility for either Smoak or Villa.

by Cainer on May 26, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

reports are that Smoak can only play 1b, a solid 1b, but only 1b.

by wilriv21 on May 26, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

IIRC, one of the BP writers said Smoak could most likely handle LF (can’t remember who, and can’t find the article right now, either).

Wasn’t the same thing said about Matt LaPorta?

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 26, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That quote from the scout has to be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Is he honestly saying that the Giants would be stupid to draft a 1B who can put up Mark Texeira-esque numbers over a catcher like Posey who may give use 15 HR and a .300 AVG?

It is a good thing you displayed the quote about 1B putting up HOF numbers 1/3 of the time. Smoak is the kind of hitter that a lineup can be built around. Posey and G. Beckham are not those kind of hitters.

by Squire_Boone on May 26, 2008 9:18 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i agree...mostly

but I can see the argument. If youre looking at Joe Mauer or Texiera (which is sorta best case scenario for both) you probably take big Tex, but its not really an easy choice. Cant just overlook the fact that C and SS are premium positions that require a lot of intangibles.

by sam23 on May 26, 2008 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Smoak is a logical choice.

Therefore, the Giants will not draft him.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 26, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Alvarez is my #1 choice but I’m drooling over the thought of Smoak in our lineup. I would be ecstatic if we ended up with him.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on May 26, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Honestly

Tim Beckham has a better shot of not working out in our system than do Smoak or Alvarez. A polished college hitter is probably the way to go, given our system’s track record

Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park

by Speedforthewin on May 26, 2008 9:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

College bat, please.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on May 26, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that previous first baseman

it really should be a “65-minor-league-games path.” the other 6 in ‘86 were rehab games somewhere in the middle of the year – July, iirc.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on May 26, 2008 10:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Lets Not forget....

That Smoak is reported to have a super glove…I know that might not be our biggest problem now but since JT Snow retired nobody that has played there has displayed an averge glove. It would be nice to have a guy on the corner who can actually nab a ball down the line….

"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading

by Mordy From Monsey on May 26, 2008 10:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Question

If the giants do take smoak at 5, do they then try to trade Winn as fast as possible so that when smoak comes up, there will space for Bowker backing up Schierholtz and Smoak? out there, i know, just a thought i had though.

Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park

by Speedforthewin on May 26, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

they should be trying to deal winn ASAP no matter who they draft.

"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."

by i did my job on May 26, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely

Nate should be the starting RF next year; in fact, he should be our RF right now. Then, after 2009, we can decide who among Bowker, Schierholtz, and Lewis we want beside Rowand in the OF (as Smoak settles in at 1B).

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on May 26, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be very happy having this problem next year.

comics | cartoons
Nattowear: now featuring new crap!

by Natto on May 26, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

Pretty good call by BP on their Dec 2007 report. Smoak did hit 20 HR and may have even exceeded some scouts’ expectations by dispelling doubts that he could hit for a high average. I just hope that he has not moved up the draft board of other teams as well. I could even see the Pirates, Royals or Orioles taking him.
But I also agree with BP that if Smoak is gone the Giants must consider Hosmer, Boras’ contract demands notwithstanding. Hosmer might even be a better candidate to move to the OF if the need arises.
As for the idea of taking a SS or C at #5 and a 1B at #37, it really depends if the drop off from Smoak to say a Cooper or Dykstra is equal to the difference from G. Beckham or Posey to a Reese Havens or Jason Castro, just for example.
It’s a tough call but the gist of the argument is that I think it is better to take the potential franchise type power hitter like Smoak, Hosmer, and Alvarez when you have the chance and build around him. As we saw during the Bonds Era, having that power hitting threat in the lineup really does change the game.
The Giants’ obvious shortcoming in the past was that they did not provide a sufficient supporting cast for their franchise player, and that they were a station to station offense. I think they have seen the error of their ways and are now intent upon developing better position players, with speed and defense, to go along with the pitching development that is already well under way. But I strongly feel that having that franchise power hitter will make them a more complete team. And in my perfect baseball world, they will someday have two such players in AnVil and either Alvarez, Smoak, or Hosmer.

by baseballjunkie on May 26, 2008 10:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Guys like Lewis, Schierholtz, Velez, burris, etc. will look better around 1 or 2 power hitters, like you suggested. The speed and defense philosophy will also come into play a little better around a power hitter, especially if a guy who would hit for a high average could hit 3 or 4th ahead of a guy like smoak.

Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park

by Speedforthewin on May 26, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alonso perhaps

I think he is more of a sure bet – he has consistenly put up better numbers. He was also great in the Cape Cod league. They put up pretty similar numbers as freshman, but Alonso was much better as a sophmore and this year has been slightly better.

Smoak’s name does sound more like an all-star. That is big. On the other hand, I don’t like switch hitters.

I am still holding out hope that Alvarez or T Beckham falls. I fear Gordon Beckham.

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on May 26, 2008 11:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

you forget, after his sophomore season, smoak was MVP of the cape cod league.

by zeisenbe on May 26, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but hit under .300 there

Alonso, in 2007, destroyed the cape

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on May 27, 2008 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE

but Smoak was a year younger and hit 8 more HR lol

by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Smoakin'

Smoak put up pretty good numbers in the Cape Cod league and that is something the G-men consider in looking at hitters. He looks impressive in the videos I have seen and he appears to have good plate discipline – something we could sorely use. I would be pleased should the Giants select Mr. Smoak.

by APGiantsFan on May 26, 2008 11:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Smoak would be a fine pick.

by Dan from NM on May 26, 2008 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Anvil will be blocked if we draft a 1B

The organization is still having him take ground balls at third so they can always move him back if needed. They just don’t want his defense to hold back his bat, which apparently should advance quickly.

by superk1ng on May 26, 2008 12:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

if anvil is moved to 3rd, we could have 2 power bats 3 years down the line, both under team control for a few years

Todd Jennings: Next up on the Non-prospect Backup Catcher Train. Next Stop: The Pine at AT&T Park

by Speedforthewin on May 26, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know from amateur baseball, but everything I’ve heard about Smoak makes it sound like he would be a great pick. A real power-hitting first baseman who projects to hit 30+ HR a year? A switch-hitter who does well from both sides of the plate? A good defender at first? A quick path to the majors? Seems like a no-brainer to me. And, unlike Pedro Alvarez, it seems most people expect him to still be available when we make our pick.

Of course, this is the Giants, so they’ll probably take a pitcher. And it’ll probably be a very good pitcher, but it’ll still drive me crazy, because for the love of god, other teams are locking all their good young hitters into long-term contracts right out of the box, and how the hell are we ever supposed to win without any damned hitters!?

by jcb9 on May 26, 2008 2:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

don't forget the Speed

If Tidrow has found a pitcher in this draft that he is ga-ga about then SF must consider that pitcher. If not then select a stud hitter.

by wilriv21 on May 26, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gordon Beckham

For a not so big guy, he really swings like a big dude. (IIRC from videos on Capeprospects.com. The scouting reports have since been removed.) I saw one video on youtube where he shows this big pile of all the aluminum bats he’s cracked. For some reason, though, I just don’t have a good feeling about Beckham, especially in the Giants system.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on May 26, 2008 2:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I will continue to search

Trying to find a report I read where this person evaluated collegiate stadiums. This report conclusion was that the stadiums for Georgia and Florida State inflated power numbers. Gordon Beckham is from Georgia and Buster Posey is from Florida State. South Carolina was somewhere in the middle. Justin Smoak plays for South Carolina. The stadiums for Arizona State and Miami deflated power numbers. Brett Wallacee, Ike Davis are from Arizona State and Yonder Alonso is from Miami.

by wilriv21 on May 26, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ummm

I’m pretty sure Arizona State is a huge hitters park, forgive me if i’m wrong.

by zeisenbe on May 26, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

stadiums

do not matter..no scout is going to factor in college stats to a GREAT degree anyway. no scout is going to say “oh Smoak hit 22 HR and Wallace his 17 so his power is way better”.

Plus, I know for a fact Smoak hits absolute tanks than would be outa Petco so I would not weigh park factors in too much.

by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe i’m nuts, but when i look at gordon beckham i see david eckstein with a little more power. which is still basically david eckstein.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on May 26, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so...

Grit! I like!

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Freezing Giants Blog

by WalrusMan on May 26, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you are nuts

=)

how about david eckstein with a tremendously more powerful swing, more speed, a better arm…um so not really eckstein at all!

by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

After reading through this thread, I’ve been googling around, look up various mock drafts, and it looks like we’re not the only ones thinking about Smoak playing first at Phone Company Park – more than one mock draft has us taking him at #5, including Baseball America.

On the other hand, I remember looking at a mock draft a couple of years ago that had us taking Kyle Drabek over Tim Lincecum. So.

by jcb9 on May 26, 2008 6:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

another breakdown on Smoak

this one breaking down the mechanics of his swing:

Justin Smoak

Not sure about anybody else, but his swing looks pretty good to me.

by WORV on May 26, 2008 6:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

pretty good..

..but not Teixeira good, in my humble opinion. I’d be pretty excited about him in a lower slot, but at #5 you’d really like to get someone with that same swing who can handle an up-the-middle position, or at least 3B/RF.

by wcw on May 26, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teixeira was a 3B in college

He’s also a #1 overall pick who dropped for sign ability reasons.

I don’t think there are any up-the-middle players in this draft with Smoak’s swing, and I’d much rather see the Giants spend their draft picks on polished players than toolsy long-term projects. There are plenty of raw teenagers available on the international FA market, but no college hitters worth signing. Just Sayin’.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on May 27, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

there aint any of those guys in the draft.

the tex comparisons are natural but a little unfair.

by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mmmmm.... Parker Posey

DFA all Giants over 34 years old.

by Mayor of 311 on May 26, 2008 9:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I found your hidden link, Grant. I just can’t figure out know how you knew that I do want that meat.…

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 27, 2008 1:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey Grant

Howie found your hidden link. He just can’t figure how you knew that he does want that meat…

comics | cartoons
Nattowear: now featuring new crap!

by Natto on May 27, 2008 1:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the translation Natto.

Howie’s having a lot of typing fail recently. He’s the Sabean of typing. Pretty decent to begin with but stinking it up lately.

Only 921 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on May 27, 2008 1:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Although, I have one suggestion in how to aid his typing fail

Go to bed. What are we doing up this late? One must needs have plenty of rest if in order to type good correctly in smart grammar.

Only 921 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on May 27, 2008 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why up so late?

The Drunkening.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on May 27, 2008 2:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man

I was severely drunk Sunday night and I didn’t go online to drunk post ANYWHERE.

What’s wrong with me?

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 27, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man even I posted a breif but inebriated blurb on my own blog when I was wasted Friday night. You live in shame.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 27, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually work the swing now, so I’m trying to keep my sleeping patterns stable to that new schedule.

Legitimate excuse FTW!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 27, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and I just thought you were a party animal...

who happens to party by posting on MCC. As for myself, I was correcting papers. They don’t grade themselves yet. But that will be awesome once we have the technology for that.

Only 921 games until the end of Zito's contract

by thehavenot on May 27, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oddly enough

I work the swing shift at the party zoo. And I’m one of the late night attractions. So you actually were right,

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 28, 2008 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alvarez is my first choice, albeit unlikely to be there, but if we take Smoak then i’ll be very happy!

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on May 27, 2008 8:28 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A major part of the reason that 1Bs drafted in the first round have such a tremendous track record is, paradoxically, that people are afraid of drafting true 1B in the 1st round. They’re generally considered to be 1 tool players who aren’t bringing enough things to the table to justify a high pick on. The result of this thinking is that if there’s a 1B who scouts have any questions about at all they’re sure to fall lower in the draft. It’s only the guys who’s bat and power create consensus that they’re likely to be major league All-Stars who rise above the doubts and go in the 1st round. That process has a way of separating wheat from chaf and seems to limit busts. This year seems destined to produce a record amount of 1st round true 1B. It’ll be interesting to follow the class and see if their success mirrors the numbers from decades past.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on May 27, 2008 12:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I have commented on Smoak alot on here

I wrote the MVN profile on him – I am also from Charleston, SC so I am an unabashed fan – BUT for good reason.

by jsmall404 on May 27, 2008 3:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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