Draft II: A Better Pedro for a New World
by Grant on May 23, 2008 8:00 AM PDT
74 comments
Pedro Alvarez went into the season as the consensus #1 talent, and he's stayed there despite a hand injury. The Vanderbilt third baseman was hit by a pitch and broke a bone in his hand during his first game of the season, but he's still expected to go within the first three picks. If money or organizational depth weren't an issue, he'd probably be a lock to go to the Rays with the first pick. Hmm, that kind of sounds like something that would happen to a Giant. I'm sold already.
Pros:
* Watch the sweet lefty swing shut up an "Ov-er-rate-d"-chant. Even though Alvarez is a left-handed hitter, his power should still be a factor in Mays Field. Somewhere right now, a scout is writing a rock opera in Alvarez's honor.
* His coach loves him. Correction: His obviously red-assed coach loves him. You don't have to be a pleasant person to be a great player, but the Giants could use a franchise player who doesn't take candy from babies.
* He isn't expected to languish in the minors for very long. Scouty types expect Alvarez to be on a similar path to someone like Will Clark, who only played 71 games in the minors.
* He's represented by Scott Boras. Some folks would think that should go under "cons" -- oh, you see what I did there -- but his price tag would be the only reason Alvarez would fall to the Giants
Cons:
* For as nice of a swing as Alvarez has, he strikes out a lot, especially for someone hitting with an aluminum bat. Scouts still think he'll hit for average, but when I think "consensus top collegiate hitter" and "loads of strikeouts", I think "Pete Incaviglia." That's not fair, but there it is.
* Alvarez didn't have a great return from the injury. Hand injuries are tricky things, but it's still a little bit troublesome that he didn't set the world on fire. When you're giving a guy an $8M major league contract, you don't want any doubts, though most draftniks aren't worried about it.
* He might not be a third baseman at the major league level. He'll probably hit anywhere, so that's not a huge deal, but it would certainly minimize some of his value to an organization.
He probably won't get to the Giants. The Pirates are under new management, and they're expected to make a statement by taking the best available player, costs be damned. The Rays still might pick Alvarez first overall. The Orioles have gone for hitters in each of the past three drafts, but they could still go for another great prospect.
I hope he lasts until the fifth pick, though. I was half-heartedly alluding to Pete Incaviglia, but a better comparison would probably be a lefty-only Mark Teixeira that could play third. I'll take two, please.
Links:
MLB.com puff piece
AP puff piece
MLB.com draft report
Vanderbilt University profile
Ask BA with Q&A about Alvarez's injury
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Will Clark
he only played 71 games in the majors? seemed like a few more than that to me…
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 23, 2008 8:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes please
The infield would look sweet in a couple years!!
1b- AnVill
2b- Noonan
SS-????
3b-Alvarez
by krazybalr on May 23, 2008 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure ???? doesn’t have the skills to play shortstop at the major league level.
All-Father Watch: 1.16 ERA, 4 saves, 0.99 WHIP, 23 Ks in 23 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on May 23, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And since his bat doesn’t play at 3B, he’ll be limited to 2B which really decreases his value. He’s pretty much destined to be a utility IF.
by mxmob33 on May 23, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyway, he’ll just be blocked by Vizquel.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh my god you're a nurd.
Of course I’m a nurd for knowing what you just nurded.
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry..
I am only mediocrely a nurd. I know some people I may perhaps nominate for the title of King (or Queen) of nurds, as they have the proper prerequisite. Band.
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MISSINGNO 4EVA
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on May 23, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So we have to use a cheat code to get him?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 24, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d love Alvarez. But it looks like even if Tampa Bay doesn’t get him, Pittsburgh will.
I think there’d be a riot by Pirates fans if they didn’t take him, considering the whole Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters choice last year- and Neal Huntington’s going to want to make a splash in his first draft with the Pirates. Money’s not an issue, since he’s made it pretty clear that he’s putting more funds into their farm.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on May 23, 2008 8:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why do you tease Grant?
Now you’ve made me like the guy – and he’s gonna end up on the damn Pirates.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 23, 2008 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, same. I knew Alvarez was special but reading all this just makes me sad. Do want!
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 23, 2008 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
We can trade an aging veteran for him in a year or so…Randy Winn to the Pirates?
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the new Pirates GM is only gaga for reverse-aging veterans. Pretty stupid of Brian Sabean not to have at least ONE of those things around, if you ask me.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d kill for Alvarez but I don’t think he’ll fall past Pittsburgh. :(
He’s an absolutely perfect fit for the Giants though.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on May 23, 2008 8:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He is a perfect fit for the Giants, which is a bummer! Should have lost a few more games…...
by Squire_Boone on May 23, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Negotitate a pre-draft contract with him
$10M ML deal, $6M bonus, which he then sets as a price to scare everyone else off.
Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.
by tedfordfan on May 23, 2008 9:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OK..
Can someone give me a refresher course on this? If a draftee signs a major league contract, does that mean he has to go on the 40-man roster? And then he starts using up options every year also? So that kind of guarantees that they will be up in the majors a little faster, getting them to free agency faster?
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro Alvarez
Not much to dislike about him. I would still have some nagging doubts about (1) his ability to stay at 3B, (2) the fact that he’s a lefty hitter {we need some righty power}, and (3) how long he takes to recover from the hamate bone surgery.
Given those small concerns, I’m okay with the Pirates taking him #2, as they really should.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 23, 2008 9:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
More Value than just Alvarez!!
Let Alverez go to Pittsburgh, the better value to the Giants is Buster Posey-C FSU. The Giants have needs, and one of them happens to be behind the plate. This draft is riddled with Power hitting first baseman, and thats where you can project Alvarez down the road. 3B,C,1B in that order are our needs- Tim beckem( five tool H.S.- SS) may go #1 to TB, if not and its Alverez than he goes #2. Either way its good for us because Posey is still on the board. Now look at Matusz-P USD, Chow-P Mizzu, Posey-C FSU, Smoak-1B USC, Alonso-1B Miami, Hosmer-1B (H.S. FL.) as the next three picks. The Giants dont need an 18yr old kid, and maybe one or both of these HS kids go in front of the Giants, Its truely a possibility that the Giants get Posey. Its gonna be a good draft for SF simply because of the depth in the first 10 picks. We all need to step back from the wishing well and be realistic about the top player this year, he’s not falling to five. If KC can sign Hocheaver #1 overall pick two years ago, than its a pipe dream to think Avarez would fall even past them. Be gratefull of the quality bats that will be there waiting for us, we need all we can get
by bakeinmosul on May 23, 2008 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gonna have to disagree.....
I tend to think the better value for the Giants is Justin Smoak. I’ll take 35-40 HR power over what Posey could give us any day. Besides, Pablo Sandoval really seems to be emerging as the catcher of the future. We do not have a 1B prospect as advanced as Sandoval is at catcher.
by Squire_Boone on May 23, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree to disagree
That’s because Posey’s not in our system yet.
by bakeinmosul on May 23, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posey is like a mix between Paul lo Duca and Brandon Inge to me. He doesn’t have a single plus plus tool, which is sorta what you want with a top 5 pick . . .so, I personally don’t like him for us. He makes sense for the Rays because their organization doesn’t have much in terms of catching depth in their system aside from John Jaso. I’d much prefer we get a power hitter with our fifth pick.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on May 23, 2008 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly..
His real value lies in being a catcher. Not power, not average, not defense. But he’s a catcher who can kinda hit for power, kinda hit for average.
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not a plus defender?
He’s projected to have “gold glove” ( I know, the award is stupid) defense behind the dish. His receiving, footwork, and release are all advanced.
LoDuca maybe had one great tool, the ability to hit for BA. Inge might have had one in power, but Posey is way more rounded than either of them. The ability to hit for average AND modest power with great defense behind the plate.
I’d take a guy like T. Beckham, Alvarez, or maybe Smoak ahead of him, but I think you’re selling him short some. He’s not an overdraft at #5 and I wouldn’t freakout if the Giants grabbed him, though, like everyone, I would want someone with a more offensive upside. But Posey isn’t a terrible pick.
by xanthan on May 23, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I probably am selling him short, and that’s because I don’t like what he has to offer in comparison to the others that will be available in terms of offensive potential.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on May 23, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not yet
he just moved to the position, hes definitely not polished yet for sure. that being said, he has shown a great ability to learn the position and he might have the potential to be a great defender one day. But at this point it is more projection than actual proof.
by zeisenbe on May 23, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everything I’ve read already says he’s a plus defender at catcher. Link me to something that says otherwise, please.
by xanthan on May 23, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be happy with more players up the middle....
but the Giants should take whomever is the best position player available. if it’s Alvarez (who i think isn’t going to be a good 3B and will be eventually moved), or Smoak or Posey or, by some miracle, Beckham, then i’ll be happy.
Ideally, if the Giants pick up Smoak, they’ll have a young true first baseman prospect who looks like he’ll move up quickly and can bridge the years between hopefully mid-season 2009 and whenever Villalona’s ready (which doesn’t look like it’ll be for a few years at least).
Plus, having two young and good catching prospects is a good kind of a problem, since good young catchers are hard to find and could fetch a lot in a potential trade down the line. Plus there’s no guarantee that Sandoval is going to be good (though there’s no guarantee that Posey is either).
by baetown415 on May 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedrito!
I thought he was a switch hitter?
Anyways, I also doubt that he would make it to the Giants. The Pirates appear committed to selecting him if he is available, and good for them! That organization needs to turn things around and Pedro could be a step in the right direction.
However, I would not complain if he fell to us…..
by Squire_Boone on May 23, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If you have the DirecTV sports package
you can see Pedro and Vanderbilt take on South Carolina (with Justin Smoak, Reese Havens, and James Darnell) today at 1:00 Pacific Time on Channel 630 (FSN South). Set your DVR!
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 10:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
also, I have seen Pedro several times thanks to the afore mentioned DirecTV package, and I would absolutely LOVE it if he fell to us. But I doubt that will happen. We need the Pirates, Royals, and Orioles to have a sudden rush of “fiscal responsibility.”
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grant, huh?
he strikes out a lot, especially for someone hitting with an aluminum bat.
OK, I know I’m dumb, but help me understand this one. If a guy strikes out, it’s because of a-swing-and-a-miss or called third strike. Are aluminium bats so much lighter that making contact (as opposed to missing) is markedly easier? I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t help with a called 3rd strike. Caught fouled tips with two strikes seem to rare to matter.
The only other argument I can think of is that strike 1 and 2 foul balls would be fair, but I thought aluminum bats halep you hit it harder, not straighter.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
by Goofus on May 23, 2008 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Aluminium bats...
They are the devil anyways so does it matter?
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by WalrusMan on May 23, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not over until the fat lady sings...
or in our case, until the skinny weasel Selig makes the announcement.
So it is not a given that Alvarez will be gone when we pick. However, it is highly likely he will be gone since the Royals and Orioles have not shied away from Boras clients before. But perhaps the combination of the high signing price and lingering doubts of his recovery will allow Alvarez to drop to #5.
But even if Alvarez is not available, Smoak would make one great consolation prize. BA projects him to be on the board when we pick. Smoak does have some advantages over Alvarez. He is a switch hitter and a potential Gold Glover at 1st. If Alvarez is forced to move to first, he will not likely have the defensive ability of Smoak. Nor would he be a potential Gold Glover anywhere on the field. Smoak would likely be available at a lower price tag than Alvarez, leaving the Giants more room to consider drafting and signing other picks who have dropped due to contract demands. And if the Giants can manage to pick up Smoak at #5 and use their #37 pick for either of Smoak’s South Carolina teammates Reese Havens (may be gone) or James Darnell (could be available) it could help both players in their minor league adjustment and could help enhance future clubhouse chemistry in the majors. By the way, Darnell is a local kid, from Danville, which might give the Giants a hometown discount. Either Havens or Darnell could fill the Giants 3B hole.
by baseballjunkie on May 23, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Darnell
Did he go to Monte Vista or San Ramon Valley? If it’s SRV he’s pretty much a lock to go to the Giants since they’re trying to field to an all SRV team with Winn, Schierholtz and Dave McKae.
Speed, defense... and an almost fanatical devotion to getting picked off.
by SF Pete on May 23, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
San Ramon Valley High
Class of 2005
by baseballjunkie on May 23, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he went to 3 different high schools
one being san ramon valley.
by zeisenbe on May 23, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of locals
we should draft Brandon Crawford SS from UCLA somewhere, was friends with him in highschool (Foothill 05 in Pleasanton).
by Azmanz on May 23, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am a UCLA alum and I love Crawford
he is not having a good year (along with the entire UCLA team, but that’s another story) and he has cost himself a lot of money, but I would love to get him in the 3rd or 4th round or so.
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course this begs the question of...
What to do with AnVil in this scenario?
Of course he hasn’t reached the majors yet, and while none of Smoak, Havens, and Darnell have either, they are more likely to reach the bigs before AnVil. So if AnVil finds himself blocked at both 1st and 3rd base, we could:
1. Try AnVil in LF, the usual place for large immobile objects at AT&T Park.
2. Try Darnell in LF. He has played some OF at USC.
3. Move Havens to 2B. He plays SS now and might make the transition easily. If Noonan blocks him there, move him back to SS unless he has shown he simply cannot handle the position. Or try him in the OF.
4. Try Smoak in LF. He is thought by some to be athletic enough to play LF. He couldn’t be any worse than Burrell, Braun, or LaPorta.
5. If all else fails, trade somebody.
In any case, this could be a problem of excess not lack, and one the Giants would gladly accept.
by baseballjunkie on May 23, 2008 12:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most scouts project Darnell to move to the OF in pro ball. Personally (very amateur opinion) I think he would be a good supplemental round pick, I like his power potential a lot.
isn’t it way way too early to speculate about anybody blocking anybody at this point?
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it's early...
but I’d rather create possible “good” problems than think about my actual “problem” problems.
by baseballjunkie on May 23, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, since we are going to speculate…
what about trying Smoak at 3B? Can you take a guy who scouts think can be a Gold Glover at 1B and make him into an adequate 3B? Does taking away his potential great defense at 1B lower his value significantly?
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Presumably if he can field 1B well, he could field 3B well. The question would be whether he has the throwing arm for it.
All-Father Watch: 1.16 ERA, 4 saves, 0.99 WHIP, 23 Ks in 23 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on May 23, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak throws left-handed.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on May 23, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, of course he does, I am an idiot. Nevermind
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s ok. From his comment above, EliminateMe’s an idiot too.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
by Goofus on May 23, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he quite literally does not have the throwing arm to play 3B
by FluLikeSymptoms on May 23, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I laughed.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
by groug on May 23, 2008 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's cool
I once called Noah Lowry a “right handed Kirk Rueter.”
You can search it. I totally did. On the internet, everyone is an idiot once. Some of us are lucky enough to be repeat offenders.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 24, 2008 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez is a great player and better person
If available then select. He loves the game and is a dedicated student and athlete. His bonus demands and injury could drop him to #5. If not there and SF does not want to draft a pitcher (LHP Brian Matusz) then SF should grab Yonder Alonso with their first selection. With the #37 selection I can only dream and hope RHP Tanner Scheppers injury allows him to drop so SF can select him.
by wilriv21 on May 23, 2008 1:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They should not
draft yonder alonso. Smoak is the superior prospect.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 23, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
p.s.
the scheppers injury is a bit of a pipe dream. He won’t drop that far, though that would be nice.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 23, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is talk he might have something more serious than they have lead on
The word today is that he has a shoulder stress fracture but whispers are it is more serious
by wilriv21 on May 23, 2008 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most likely
some sort of labrum tear.
Jonathan Mayo mentioned it as a possibility when it was first reported. Players will often lie about the type of injury they have so their status won’t take as much of a hit.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on May 23, 2008 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeesh
if it’s a labrum tear, then no. We don’t want him with the 27th. that shit’s nasty.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 23, 2008 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, what you're saying is...
You see Smoak over Yonder.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 23, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jon Miller
Couldn’t have said it better himself.
by baseballjunkie on May 23, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty much same player
one has a better swing and Plus present power, plus-plus future.
the other needs some fixes and has average present power, possibility of plus in the future.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 23, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yonder Alonso
What fixes does Alonso need? I think he needs to be more aggressive and take less walks – hey but that’s just me. His power is off the charts and it is to CF and LCF which plays well at Mays Field. He has 8 SBs this season and 13 SBs out of 16 attempts last season. He works out with ARod and is blossoming into a top talent. Scout/evaluators did not appreciate LaPorta last season the same way they do not appreciate Alonso this season.
He was rated the No. 2 prospect in the Cape Cod League by Baseball America last summer and SF organization places a heavy emphasis on this wooden bat league. He has a very good arm.
by wilriv21 on May 24, 2008 1:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay.
Yonder Alonso has a hitch in his swing and dips his shoulder as he comes into it. He also doesn’t finish his swing, meaning that he doesn’t fully rotate his hips. Playing to your opposite field power works very very rarely if you want to produce home runs. he doesn’t turn on pitches and has no discernable power to speak of to RF. His power is not off the charts, merely above average. The SB’s do not matter to me, as his speed will not play into steals in the major leagues.
LaPorta was hurt during the summer with the oblique strain which dropped his standing a bit. The reports on brewersfan.net last year were that there were a handful of teams that had LaPorta ranked a lot higher than many other players. The problem with this comparison is that LaPorta had elite power at the University of Florida. Alonso really doesn’t have that. To me, Alonso has a ceiling of someone like John Olerud. Smoak and LaPorta both have a much higher power ceiling. Smoak is also a much more advanced hitter than LaPorta or Alonso. He’s got a level, smooth and lofty swing from both sides that is very remniscent of Justin Morneau. His defense is also superior to Alonso.
The No. 2 prospect in the cape cod doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot to me. As long as a guy doesn’t stink it up in the league. p.s. Smoak won the MVP award there two years ago. He played for Team USA last summer.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 24, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez would be my top choice...
but then, i really just wanna be able to recreate the “Ped-ro! Ped-ro! Ped-ro!” chant from the end of Major League. That sure as hell wasn’t going to happen with Feliz, so let’s give it a try with newPedro.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on May 23, 2008 3:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t want this Pedro Alvarez guy. I got really annoyed with him after he spent a whole season chasing Bonds around like a puppy dog looking for a story.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
by Goofus on May 23, 2008 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
How?
I realize you were going only by the MILB.com summary on Alvarez, but how can a guy hit for average if he strikes out a lot (as you said) and may hit for only average power (as MILB.com said)?
Let’s take a guy who hits 25 homers but strikes out 125 times in 500 at bats. In order for that guy to bat .300, he needs to go 125 for 350 on Balls In Play. That would be a .357 BABIP, which is more in the realm of a guy like Ichiro or Miguel Cabrera, both of whom (probably coincidentally) happen to be off to slow starts this season.
More likely the guy who strikes out 125 times and hits 25 homers in 500 at bats will wind up closer to .260. Think of Adam Dunn with fewer home runs and fewer strike outs. Think of Pat Burrell. Think of Andruw Jones through the 2004 season.
Not bad hitters. But not guys who hit for average.
by sharksrog on May 23, 2008 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is an interesting argument, perhaps the reason teams haven’t put Alvarez far ahead of other top players. Personally, I’d be thrilled with him at No. 5, given his strong track record over the last three years.
by Dan from NM on May 24, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I look at
I don’t even know Alvarez’s stats. I don’t really pay that much attention to draft guys and almost NO attention until draft day itself, when I do look at video of the guys the Giants draft and occasionally other players of interest (such as those the Giants COULD have taken but didn’t).
Additionally, my analysis of stats is usually done with minor leaguers and major leaguers, not high school or college kids. But I DO like a nice ratio between walks and home runs on the positive side and strikeouts on the negative.
For instance, I can live with a high-strikeout guy such as Adam Dunn because he hits a lot of homers to offset that and doesn’t have to have an extraordinarily high BABIP to hit for at least a decent average, especially one fortified by his power and his ability to take a walk.
On the other hand, I’m down on a guy like Eugenio Velez who strikes out a lot while hitting few homers and doesn’t enhance his hitting by getting on base with walks. Keep in mind that until he was sent down, Eugenio was my favorite Giants position player. But at the same time I stated he was my favorite, I also stated that I didn’t think he would hit enough.
Manny Burriss has a better walk-to-strikeout ratio, but he hits with so little power that I fear he will be overpowered in the majors. He’s nowhere near ready yet, of course, and his major league sample is small, so it’s far too early to tell. But thus far he has had a horrible time just getting the ball out of the infield.
Brian Bocock is a guy who strikes out a TON while hitting with very limited power. Again, he was badly rushed this season, but I don’t think he will EVER hit in the majors (although his glove might well get him there again).
In AA, Antoan Richardson is a guy who draws a lot of walks, but strikes out so often that I don’t see him EVER hitting for average in the majors. He has almost no power, and more of his Balls In Play will be successfully fielded once he reaches the majors. With his ability to draw walks and his fine speed, Antoan wouldn’t have to hit much to make a nice leadoff man. Unfortunately I don’t think he will hit even a little.
So who would that type of analysis favor the Giants drafting at #5? I can’t say, since I haven’t studied the players much at all. But my sense is that the better the player’s walk/strikeout/homer relationship, the better he is likely to hit once he reaches the majors.
Among the young Giants, Freddie Lewis’ K/BB/HR relationship is likely the best. But it looks to me as if he strikes out too much to bat much over .250 if he plays every day. That seems pretty stupid on my part, given that his career batting average after 329 at bats is .286. But Freddie has been somewhat shielded from southpaw pitching (for instance, facing them only about 2/3rds as frequently as if he were playing full-time) and has an unsustainably high .358 BABIP.
Let’s see if by the end of the season he doesn’t look more like a .250 hitter. I said about three weeks ago when he was hitting .327 that his average would soon be coming down. It has dropped 54 points in the past three weeks.
And although it likely won’t be on a straight-line basis, his average is almost sure to come down further.
I like Freddie OK as a platoon player, particularly if he could play center field where the hitting requirements are less than as a corner outfielder. But IMO there is no way he is an everyday player—and I doubt he ever will be unless he can cut his strikeouts down dramatically and significantly increase his home runs.
Freddie’s K/BB/HR ratio is likely the best of the Giants’ young players. But that doesn’t mean it is acceptable. Aside from Aaron Rowand and perhaps Bengie Molina, does any Giants everyday player really meet the hitting expectations for his position?
by sharksrog on May 25, 2008 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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