Sabean thinks Giants can contend in '08...
by sfgreg on May 15, 2008 10:13 AM PDT
90 comments
It's a scary thought , although I wouldn't really expect him to say anything differently. Here are some highlights of the article:
Sabean sees a San Francisco team that can contend.
Not in two seasons, not next season, but in 2008."As long as we've got a chance to stay in and around third place, why not?" Sabean said as he stood along the dugout rail and watched his players take batting practice. "Why wouldn't you want to think that way? These guys think that way.
He plans on keeping his "most marketable" veterans, for now...(sorry Nate)
With that in mind, Sabean said he does not contemplate moving his most marketable experienced players before the trade deadline, as many rebuilding teams do. Catcher Bengie Molina and outfielder Randy Winn, both signed through 2009, might yield the most in return. But as of now, Sabean plans to keep them.
"Both of those guys are unique," he said. "On any team, whether you're in transition or you're a veteran team, you want a veteran catcher. You want somebody like Molina who has an upside with the bat. In Randy's case it's the same thing, somebody who is so versatile, a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions. Their relative value is going to be consistent no matter what year it is or who you have around them."
He goes on to say that with Castillo and Bowker they have found solutions at first and third, so hopefully this means no outrageous trades for Crede or any other mediocre veteran corner INF.
At least there is still plenty of time left in the season for this team to change his mind.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I personally think Randy Winn will be gone by the All-Star break
I think Sabean is waiting for that two week stretch where Winn gets super hot and move him then. He should have some value around the league because of his ability to play all three OF positions and play them well, his switch-hitting and he has decent speed.
Optimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with winners
Pessimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with losers
My Outlook: Augusta Greenjackets FTW!!
by gianator on May 15, 2008 10:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be so happy if you turn out to be right...
But I don’t see this happening at all.
Reason 1: Sabean loves him some mid-to-late-30s veterans with minimal upside and no real future with the Giants. Love, love, loves them. Loves them lots and lots.
Reason 2: Winn does not have trade value. He doesn’t hit for power. I mean, Matt Cain has more HRs than our #3 hitter. Just let that pithy little line settle over you. His defense is mediocre-to-OK. He has been terrible so far with men on base. I mean, just awful—particularly for a supposed #3 hitter. A .497 OPS? .497 isn’t even a good slugging percentage for a #3 hitter.
Reason 3: Winn won’t get super hot.
Reason 4: If he does, Sabean will fall in love with him all over again, and extend his contract to 2015.
Reason 5: If worlds collided, night became day, another GM actually wanted Winn, and Sabean actually became willing to trade him, he would trade Winn for someone like…Greg Norton or Scott Schoeneweis.
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on May 15, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody thought the same way about Matt Morris
Winn is actually imo a pretty good defender(eyeball test, not stats). I think he is an ideal #8 hitter or a #2 hitter in an actual offense. He could be considered a pretty good hitter in those slots. Winn always gets super hot for two to three weeks from both sides.
Optimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with winners
Pessimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with losers
My Outlook: Augusta Greenjackets FTW!!
by gianator on May 15, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On an actual offense...
Winn doesn’t bat 3rd. Any contender that could use an upgrade at one of their outfield positions should definitely consider Winn.
Reasons 1 and 4 are spot on, though. And I do fear that if he were to trade Winn, you’re probably right that it would be for a middle reliever. Hooray, just what we needed…
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on May 15, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castillo and "solution" do not belong together
Unless it’s in the sentence “The solution to our problem at third base involves optioning Castillo to Fresno”
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on May 15, 2008 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
“As for 3B, it’s clear Castillo is NOT the solution.”
Done and done.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 15, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trueche.
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on May 15, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to dip Castillo into an extremely acidic solution.
Ruben Rivera: Incompetent oaf, or mad genius?
by Stuttering John Tamargo on May 15, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
its been 8 minutes and still no “the goggles, they do nothing”
Mike Loree: Gotta take someone with a 50th round pick.
by BrianBokake on May 15, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hehe… I love making this joke about google.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 15, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are on a pace to win 66 games.
Even His Savvy Veterannesss can’t be that delusional. Just in case maybe we should be rooting for the D Backs to pour it on the next 2-3 months. Just for insurance purposes or we might find a Mora type player in a Giants uni at the cost of a Mad Bum or Anvil.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on May 15, 2008 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm getting deja vu
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 15, 2008 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know!
It’s 2005-2007 all over again!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 15, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"We have a solution at third base"
Are you f’in kidding me Sabean? What a dolt.
by Rubber Soul on May 15, 2008 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
“We have a solution at third base” = “Mission accomplished!”
by xanthan on May 15, 2008 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 15, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
getting dangerously close to political
not the place for it
by sam23 on May 15, 2008 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dangerously close to political, my ass!
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on May 16, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish you had forgotten the comma, so that political could be read as a verb there.
But alas….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 16, 2008 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's classic Sabean
I don’t think Sabean gets the credit he deserves for having the poker face that he does and the misdirection that he implies through the media. Whenever Sabean makes a deal it’s always a surprise because he’ll never openly show his hand.
It’s obvious that when he says Molina and Winn aren’t available it should be read as “the team that wan’t them is going to have to up their ante”
by Sigualicious on May 15, 2008 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
exactly
I wouldn’t take anything Sabean (or any GM for that matter) says to the media seriously. There is nothing to be gained by telling the truth to a sportswriter.
What is he supposed to say “holy shit, this team is God awful I can’t wait to start the fire sale and ship out the vets for 70 cents on the dollar so go ahead and get your non-prospects lined up.”
by JayCanizaro on May 15, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he is probably just spilling a bunch of propaganda. If he openly admitted that he wanted to trade Winn and Molina then other GM’s would have the high ground in dealing with him. By Sabean saying that he VALUES Winn and Molina he is sending the message to GM’s that they can’t just trade him crap players.
by Squire_Boone on May 15, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, how much do we really believe that major league GMs scour local papers from around the country to find out who they might be able to obtain in trade and at what price? If he wants teams to know that they can’t have his vets for crap, wouldn’t the most efficient way to communicate that be to tell them “no, I won’t trade you X for Y. You’ll have to do a lot better than that crap.”
Frankly, the whole notion that Sabean is some inscrutable Svengali who never shows his cards is rather ridiculous. His mid-season trades have hardly come out of the blue, nor most of his FA signings. We knew he was looking to get a premier starting pitcher before both the Ponson and Schmidt deals happened. We knew he thought the ‘97 team was in dire need of pitching help. Listening to him weekly on Barbieri’s show he frequently says of himself that one of the problems he’s had in the business is that he’s so open and honest, and I don’t know that I’ve seen a lot of evidence to dispute that much.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 15, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Roger
and furthermore, if its an issue for him not getting enough credit for “having the poker face”... is he not getting enough credit for the current status of the team???
Castillo is not a “solution”, he’s more like the old band-aid you find in the lint-filled corner of the first aid kit after you had been run over by a lawnmower… with rusty blades.
And to continue a bad analogy, unfortunately with how Sabean has handled our SF Giants over the past few years, its like we noticed the lawnmower coming at us from across the street… like an hour ago.
Nothing against Castillo personally, but I mean, come on, an above league average production, low-injury risk 3B locked in beyond 2010 would be more of a “solution”.... we shouldn’t settle for mediocrity. Keep pressing on!
by bennett on May 15, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're not exactly being fair
Many a bad GM has openly blown their wad over the years giving themselves the weaker arm at the bargaining table. Lets face it…if Sabean/McGowan had been as open with the media as Cashman/Steinbrenner we’d be losing out horribly but since the Yankees can afford to cut their losses with the high rolling FA it’s not as obvious.
“Honestly, how much do we really believe that major league GMs scour local papers from around the country to find out who they might be able to obtain in trade and at what price? If he wants teams to know that they can’t have his vets for crap, wouldn’t the most efficient way to communicate that be to tell them "no, I won’t trade you X for Y. You’ll have to do a lot better than that crap."
It’s not like the GM is the only one involved in trade talk and I’m sure reading local papers is part of their scouting in addition to their official scouting reports. You don’t think you’d be at a disadvantage by telling the media “We really need a third baseman”. It certainly doesn’t hurt if you keep your intentions a secret. yes, it would be more efficient if GM A and GM B were honest and up front with one another but know that’s not how it works. Furthermore, the person who generally offers the first proposition is generally the weaker of the two at the bargaining table not only in sports but in every aspect. Because it’s known that the first offer is never going to the best one and if you say UP FRONT what you’re willing to put up then you might not know what they would have given in return..
Sabean has had a horrible past few years but he truly dominated the trades before that. I think Sabean has more cunning that people are willing to give him credit for. No doubt he’s got to show a strong future to make up for his most recent mistakes.
by Sigualicious on May 15, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, let me put it this way. One of the hallmarks of Sabean’s career almost literally from day one has been the public blow up, the tendency to take things personal, the complete inability to disguise what he’s thinking or feeling. The lunatic fringe, the I’m not an idiot, these to me aren’t the symptoms of a cagey misdirecting personality. In fact, I’d say the tiniest amount of professional composure would have prevented the ridiculous and embarrassing whipping boy tirade, a tirade that came at a team-called press conference, for crying out loud, which are typically scripted and PR’d within an inch of their lives. Frankly, other than lots of folks on message boards repeating it, I’d have trouble coming up with any shred of evidence that Sabean is a chronic dissembler when speaking to the media.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on May 15, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 15, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there proof or documentation to back that up?
Oh yes that Acme diploma in advanced baseball theory taught by Wily E. Coyote – Genius on the wall there. Now don’t I look dumb?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on May 16, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winn is 34 years old
In addition to the $8M this year, he’s also owed $8.5M in 2009. He plays good D in the corners. He’s struggled to be even an average hitter in the last couple years, OPS+ of 81 this year, 105 in 2007, 84 in 2006. His career OPS+ is 101. Kenny Lofton, who’s slightly better offensively, maybe slightly worse defensively, is jobless.
Why shouldn’t other GMs offer crap for Randy Winn?
What, in your opinion, is a fair trade for Randy Winn?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 15, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a glass of water and a cardboard cookie
and more playing time for ortholtz!
Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.
by jasomack on May 15, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on May 16, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re giving him WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much credit here.
He’s a dipshit and if it wasn’t for the Pirates calling US up last year because they were all wet for Matty Mo, Sabean would still be the worst GM in the game!
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on May 16, 2008 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you block quotes now?
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on May 15, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Click on the quotes thing.
It’s between the strikethrough thing and the link thing.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
by groug on May 15, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like this?
Click on the quotes thing.
Nice! Too easy! Too obvious! Makes too much sense! I’m the Brian Sabean of McCovey Chronicles posters!
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on May 15, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, Tobias
I’ve got a catcher you’d really like. How about 3 prospects for him?
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 15, 2008 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't listen to Lyle, Tobias....
I’ve got 6…count ‘em 6 centerfielders for you…all I’m asking for is Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on May 16, 2008 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can also just put one of the carrots at the front of your line.
this one
Dammit! Errr… I mean, “not this one: <”
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 15, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t get on Sabean for saying this…a GM can’t come out and say “I think this team will not contend this year.” It shows a disrespect for the guys going out there everyday, and fosters a “why the hell should I even try” attitude.
Giants Cove: You'll be a better person for reading
by Chulk on May 15, 2008 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1!!!!!!
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on May 15, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 15, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this thread was already covered on danger brain at work
please note this…ty
by bacci40 on May 15, 2008 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Repitition aids learning.
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on May 15, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean's definition of contention is usually different
In past seasons, it’s meant “being competitive” and “playing meaningful games in September”.
If by contenting this season, he means “not last place,” he might be right. They’re in third place now thanks to the unexpected awfulness of both the Rockies and Padres. Yes, it looks good in the standings, but all three teams are in the bottom five of the major leagues.
And I’m fine with that. I wasn’t expecting anything going in to this season, so anything positive is all gravy. Sabean’s shown some restraint this season, so I’m hoping he’s changed his thinking somewhat in regard to keeping and acquiring veteran savvy. Then again, there’s plenty of season left to f*ck it up.
by rightcenterfielder on May 15, 2008 11:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We have a solution at 3B
In the sense that a biped wearing a uniform is out there, as opposed to an unoccupied position.
by out machine on May 15, 2008 11:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll agree with this line
“As long as we’ve got a chance to stay in and around third place, why not?”
Yeah, as long as we hang around 3rd place and aren’t more than 10 games back – we’ve got a chance. The diamondbacks and dogers could always implode. Its about a .5% chance, but a chance all the same. You don’t play/manage for it, but it could happen.
So yeah, I don’t disagree with him there. Basically, he is saying this team is not nearly as bad as it was reported to be.
All the stuff about Molin and Winn is just smokescreen. I think Molina/Durham/Winn will be the Sabean test – to see if he really can GM this team (and blame the weirdness of the last 5 years on ownership) or if it really was Sabean all along.
If all three of them are still here after the All Star break, let the Sabean hating commence.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 15, 2008 11:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Sabean Test
I like that! I hope you haven’t copywrited it or anything, ‘cause I plan to use the heck out of it.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 15, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been pleasantly surprised by...
...the over-100 OPS+’s currently belonging to Lewis, Bowker, Ortmeier and Holm. Rookies FTW!
All-Father Watch: 1.33 ERA, 3 saves, 0.98 WHIP, 19 Ks in 20 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on May 15, 2008 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I've been unpleasantly surprised by...
...my own stupidity in posting things in the wrong place.
All-Father Watch: 1.33 ERA, 3 saves, 0.98 WHIP, 19 Ks in 20 1/3 IP
by EliminateMe on May 15, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I got out of that article is to pray for an extreme cold streak by the Giants. We need a couple 10 game losing streaks with a bunch of 4-3 and 2-1 ballgames.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on May 15, 2008 12:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
why oh why I ask?
Why is everyone hating on Winn? He doesn’t hit for power and thats obvious. But he’s above average defensively and he’s a switch hitter who hits for average. It’s not his fault he’s batting 3rd. If our offense in anyway resembled a League average offense. then he would be batting 7th and you all would regard his services as being contributive. the issue is we have no descent 3 or 4 hitters. So it’s your own fault if youre comparing his number with other number 3 hitters.
by TheUnsean86 on May 15, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
his numbers aren’t even good for a #7 hitter. yeah, he got a few hits today so it probably looks a bit better now but he’s got one of the emptiest batting averages in baseball at the moment. .283/.320/.370 is just not good in any way for a RF.
His D has been quite good so far but he’s not having a very good year by any standards offensively. He’s exactly the sort of player the Giants should be trading if he gets any interest at all.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on May 15, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought...
i understand that a corner outfielder should hit for power. i get that completely. however I could have sworn during todays game on the radio it was anounced his average was up to .298? Not positive it’s accurate. But i’ve never had a problem with anyone who bats .300, regardless of power. I admit however that I wasnt aware exactly how much we’re paying him. with our surplus for OF prospects. it would make sense to administer that cash elsewhere. 9M (i believe he’s earning in 2009???) is way to much for a Randy Winn type. Ryan Braun is making a little over 5 mill a year on his new contract. But I guess my only point is this: if we have a .300 then we should be somewhat satisfied with that, if we took our chances on another outfield prospect ( im digging Fred lewis so far) hen we would be crossing our fingers hoping that he potentially truns into a .300 hitter…am i right? so i guess the only real downside to WInn is what we’re paying him…because if he was one of our minor league prospects then we would be satisfied with the outcome. thats my opinion.
by TheUnsean86 on May 15, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s hitting .300 but it’s a very empty .300 because (a) he’s not walking and (b) he’s not hitting for power. Even after yesterday, his overall line is only .294/.329/.390. That’s not good. Batting average is cool, but when it’s combined with lackluster numbers like Winn’s got, it’s not so great.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on May 15, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
one more thing..
i dont want to make it appear that Im particularly high on WInn. It just doesnt occur to me that he’s our biggest problem. I think their are a few other positions that diserve more concern.
by TheUnsean86 on May 15, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winn is NOT our biggest problem
You are correct. But he and Molina are our most tradeable players, and in Winn’s case a perfectly competent replacement is waiting in Fresno. So not trading Winn is one of our big problems. Not the player himself, just how he fits into the whole scheme of things as we attempt to improve our team.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 15, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why hate on Winn, I've posted his twice, including once upthread
Winn is 34 years old.
In addition to the $8M this year, he’s also owed $8.5M in 2009. He plays good D in the corners. He’s struggled to be even an average hitter in the last couple years, OPS+ of 81 this year, 105 in 2007, 84 in 2006. 100 OPS+ means that his OPS park adjusted is average. His career OPS+ is 101. Kenny Lofton, who’s slightly better offensively, maybe slightly worse defensively, is jobless.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 15, 2008 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who needs Winn on their team should go sign Bonds. Twice.
Winn has an EQA of .260, and is well below average for a corner OF (ML avereage is .270)
Among Corner OFs with > 100 PAs, he’s out hitting the following:
Ken Grifffey Jr. (CIN) (just barely)
Franklin Gutteriez (CLE)
Geoff Jenkins (PHL)
Jose Guillen (KC)
Austin Kearns (WAS)
Scott Hariston (SD)
Gary Matthews Jr (LAA) – whew.
Delmon Young (MIN)
Shannon Stewart (TOR)
Matt Diaz (ATL)
Eric Byrns (ARZ)
If you project most of those guys out (Winn included) I don’t think anyone replaces any those guys with Winn.
The 09 contract is a killer. Not that it’s particularly out of whack for Winn ($9M or whatever) but why take the chance?
I posted in the other thread, I wouldn’t even take on his contract, although it’s close. No way to I give you anything more than a bucket of baseballs. If this was the last year of his contract, you might be able to get a Raj Davis type for him… oh sorry, Sabean can’t trade with himself, and Littlefield was fired.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on May 15, 2008 4:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He also plays center, and he’s ahead of a bunch of center fielders.
Last three years, Winn has hit .289/.346/.447. The average NL outfielder has hit .270/.344/.444 over the same time. He’s clearly a better fielder - a much better fielder - than the average outfielder.
He runs well, switch hits, has experience in every outfield position, stays healthy, and is considered a good guy. That’s an attractive package to GMs. Some contender will want him and be willing to trade a couple of lesser prospects for him.
by Evan on May 15, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Some contender will want him and be willing to trade a couple of lesser prospects for him.”
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 15, 2008 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, yes there is.
Now why not trade us one of your shiny 3b and a pony for one of our shiny vets and a rocketship.
by wilriv21 on May 15, 2008 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on May 15, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he’s merely a mediocre CF, as opposed to bad corner. Maybe someone takes a flyer on him, for some A-ball arm. Molina actually has some trade value… of course, he also actually OK.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on May 15, 2008 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s really not a bad corner outfielder, though. He’s below average with the bat, but he’s so much better in the field than your average corner outfielder that that brings him up to par.
by Evan on May 16, 2008 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
EQA from 2005
which happens to be Winn’s best year, 337, 247, 275, 251. Kenny Lofton’s EQA during that same period, 289, 272, 272, jobless. Winn’s career EQA is 265, Lofton’s career EQA is 277.
Lofton can also play CF. In fact, unlike Winn, even in 2007, Lofton played more games in CF than any other position. Lofton is jobless. Why would a GM trade a couple of lesser prospects for Winn, when Lofton is available?
Assume Winn is a CF. League average EQA in CF in 2008 is 263. CFs with more than 100 PAs in who have EQAs above 263, the average for CFs in 2008:
Nate McLouth
Josh Hamilton
Rick Ankiel
Grady Sizemore
Aaron Rowand
Carlos Beltran
Torii Hunter
Jacoby Ellsbury
BJ Upton
Mark Kotsay
Chris Young
Ichiro Suzuki
Vernon Wells (now injured)
Jayson Werth
Carlos Gomez
Melky Cabrera
David DeJesus
Ryan Sweeney
Now, some of these guys are not “real” CFs, Ryan Sweeney and Jayson Werth, but then, neither is Winn. Also, Curtin Granderson has a 287 EQA, but obviously doesn’t have many PAs, due to missing time early in the season with an injury.
Let’s assume that Winn can get back to his career average. That means offensively, he would be a marginally above average CF. One thing to keep in mind though is that Winn’s has NOT been “unlucky” with BABIP. His BABIP is 322. His struggles are due to his complete loss of power. His home run per flyball is a pathetic 2.8%. It was 9.8% in 2007, 6.8% in 2006. League average is 10%.
Could some contenders use Winn, if Winn gets back to around a 265 EQA? Sure. The Dodgers. But, would Colletti be dumb enough to acquire yet another high priced veteran OF, when his 2 young OFs are playing so well? The Cubs could also use a CF.
The main problem with teams acquiring Winn though, is that Kenny Lofton is still jobless.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 16, 2008 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, you or I or zenbitz would rather sign up Lofton (or Bonds). But a lot of managers and executives probably don’t see it that way, for reasons both bad and good. Lofton is a poor fielder, can’t hit lefties, and is kind of a jerk.
Just glancing through a few rosters … Florida could use Winn in place of Amezaga; Atlanta could use him in place of Matt Diaz. The Cubs are obviously flailing in center field. Houston can’t stick with Michael Bourn forever. Cleveland could play Winn at either corner. Oakland’s outfield is dire and they’re very much in contention. Same for the Twins. I’m not sure who’s playing left for the Tigers these days—Matt Joyce, I guess. This is not even looking at probable noncontenders like the Orioles and Jays and Royals, any one of whom might lose their heads and decide that they really need to shore up their outfields.
If the salary is a sticking point, I would hope the Giants would be willing to eat some of it in order to get some real talent back.
by Evan on May 16, 2008 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RZR had Lofton
at exactly average in CF in 2007. Zone rating at 3 runs below average. This was with Texas in 669 innings. In 21 innings in CF with Cleveland, both had him at 1 run below average. Meanwhile, the last time Winn had as many or more innings in CF than Lofton had in 2007, was in 2004.
Oakland? Are you sure? Err, I can agree with some of your other teams, but the last thing the A’s need is Winn. They’re the last team that is likely to give up anything useful for Winn, unless Sabean wants Magellan back. And I seriously doubt that Beane cares more about Lofton’s jerkiness than either you or me, based on comments he has made multiple times regarding team chemistry. Buck and Denorfia are injured with non serious injuries. It’s debatable whether Winn is an upgrade on any of Buck, Denorfia, Sweeney. And the A’s have Carlos Gonzalez at AAA. The last thing the A’s need is yet another OF who hits like a CF, but who can’t really play CF. They already have Sweeney, Brown, Denorfia for that.
Florida could use Winn in place of Amezaga. Will Florida pay Winn $16M?
Atlanta has Brandon Jones, one of their top OF prospects in AAA. Alternatively, they could play Brent Lillibridge at 2b, and move Kelly Johnson back to the OF.
I don’t see how the Twins are going to fit Winn in. Carlos Gomez, with the Twins, plays very good D. He’s already one of the best defensive CFs in MLB. Plus minus, has him as the best defensive CF in MLB. Zone Rating has him 2nd in MLB behind Sizemore. RZR doesn’t rate him as highly, as ZR and plus minus, but it still has him at a very solid 928 rating. Michael Cuddyer is not going anywhere. And with what they gave up for Delmon Young, he’s not going anywhere either.
The Tigers have a badly depleted farm, and far more pressing needs than corner OF. Their pitching is atrocious, OPS+ of 107, ERA+ of 81. I doubt that they’d trade anything for Winn.
The Indians I agree with.
Where would the Royals play Winn? Jose Guillen is not going anywhere. David Dejesus is a better hitter than Winn, and better defensively. Winn might be marginally better than Mark Teahen, he’s also much older and much more expensive.
All this is assuming that Winn actually bounces back to an OPS+ of around 95-100. He might not. His complete loss of power is disturbing. And that guys on the teams you named who are underperforming do not rebound. Who’s to say Matt Diaz won’t rebound, for example?
More, this assumes that teams somehow end up seeing Winn and Lofton as the only solutions. For example, the Twins could always move Jason Kubel to the OF, and go find a DH.
Or teams could start looking at Coco Crisp, who’s a far better defender than Winn, hitting very well to date, much younger, 28 to Winn’s 34, and cheaper, 4.75M in 2008, $5.75M in 2009, compared to Winn’s $8M + $8.25M.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 16, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they keep playing like they did today, they will be contenders...
for the Stephen Strasburg Sweepstakes.
by baseballjunkie on May 15, 2008 4:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We can only hope
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 15, 2008 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contending in 2008
When I read “Sabean thinks the Giants can contend in ‘08,” I thought that it was being overly optimistic.
Then I realized that 2008 is this year and not next year.
Wow.
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on May 15, 2008 5:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That
That was nicely stated.
On the one hand, it’s nice for Brian to be publicly optimistic. But even then, isn’t he merely setting himself up for failure?
And if he truly BELIEVES the Giants can contend this year, isn’t that likely to impair his judgment as to the moves he should be making for the long term, which is the only term that matters anymore?
Earlier in the season I was at least able to admire Brian for his stoically realizing the Giants weren’t very good. Maybe he was told by upper management to put on a more optimistic face and hasn’t actually lost his mind.
by sharksrog on May 16, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean was just on KNBR
when they asked him about the article, he didn’t sound very serious about the comments. He said something along the lines of “Am I supposed to say we suck? what am i supposed to say?”.
by superk1ng on May 15, 2008 5:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As I would suspect.
Altho I would have 10x the respect for him if he DID go Nelson on us.
Or how about “This is the least amount of talent i’ve ever had to work with”
lol
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 15, 2008 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
heres the interview
by superk1ng on May 15, 2008 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting Tidbits
- Pablito might not see a day in AA so whenever he is promoted he will probably go straight to AAA Fresno
- Alex Hinshaw “is an exciting lefty who throws strikes”
- He admires the way the Anaheim Angels play as a team and that everyone contributes for the team
- He said about the race: “it is not a very good league”
by wilriv21 on May 15, 2008 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
An exciting lefty who throws whats? I thought you said strikes, but I’m pretty sure that CAN’T be it….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 16, 2008 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think alot of their hitting prospects are going to be going straight from A to AAA in the future. That Connecticut ballpark and that league in particular is very tough for hitters. Look at Travis Denker. Ripped it at A ball, was awful in AA and is hitting again at Fresno.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on May 16, 2008 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps this is foreshadowing to the franchise not re-upping its affiliation with CT? Like someone brought up before, I sort of want them to move the team to the Texas League.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 16, 2008 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Texas League
..seems to be an extreme hitters league. How about a compromising between the two extremes and looking at the Southern League?
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 16, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some context
Runs per game, and OPS in the various leagues:
Lg. 2007…........2006
MLB 4.77, 758; 4.80, 768
Int 4.35, 727; 4.17, 715
PCL 5.13, 783; 4.83 757
Eas 4.60, 734; 4.22, 703
Sou 4.56, 726, 3.97, 690
Tex 4.64, 745, 4.92, 760
Actually, the Southern is one of the more pitcher friendly leagues.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 16, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m purely being selfish pushing for the Texas League. It would make travel to see said team easier on me.
And hay if we end up with Smoak in a few weeks we can watch him go go go in the hitters league. I daresay it is win-win.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 16, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's more like it
That makes it sound at least as if Brian isn’t delusional.
by sharksrog on May 16, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What am I missing here?
Since when does the 3rd place team in a division make the playoffs? Anyone? Buehler?
Hey Sabes…I’ve got your 3rd place right here, and you can shove it up your bum, you asshat!!
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on May 16, 2008 12:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's Bueller. He doesn't pitch for the White Sox!!
Anyway, Sabean can’t possibly believe this team is a contender. And if he did, he no longer does after watching the last couple of games. However, he needs to be fired if he can’t move his veterans and soon. As bad as Ray Durham is, you think he can’t help a team if the Giants eat most of his contract?? Velez should be at second everyday and given a full shot at convincing everyone he can’t play. If they’re already convinced, give Denker a shot. Get Leone up here to play third, and play Manny at short. Get Ort in there everyday against lefties. Where is this team going?? Why wait??
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on May 16, 2008 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Leone
I thought Spring Training established for everybody that Justin isn’t a good defensive 3B – did I misunderstand? I notice he’s listed as an OF on the Fresno roster on MiLB.
I’m convinced Velez isn’t the answer at 2B. I’d give Burriss the chance there, but I wouldn’t be totally opposed to calling up Denker for 2B and putting Burriss back at SS when Vizquel is traded.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on May 16, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denker
Travis doesn’t look anywhere near ready to me, either. IMO the Giants would be better off bringing up their career minor leaguers and Four-A players so that they can get the necessary minor-league experience for their modest but actual prospects.
Now maybe Travis will fit into that category of Four-A players. My guess is that he likely will. I would rather burn him up than Manny Burriss, but Travis is young enough that I wouldn’t give up on him entirely.
by sharksrog on May 16, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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