The /fx files -- why is Lincecum outpitching Cain?
by sharksrog on May 13, 2008 11:36 PM PDT
39 comments
Entering this season many Giants fans looked at Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as Twin Towers of Twirling. They figured both were potential aces, All-Stars and even Hall of Famers.
Suddenly Lincecum has emerged as the potential hardware bearer, while Cain has struggled to get the lead out. Matt uncharacteristically gave up nine earned runs in one start. Tim has given up nine earned runs total in eight starts.
Why the sudden split in direction by the two 23-year-olds?
With the help of the PITCH/fx data so graciously provided us by Josh Kalk and by analytically looking at both pitchers' splits, we can examine the reasons, perhaps identifying how both pitchers can continue to improve. Here are some of the reasons for the difference:
1. Tim has been phenomenal with runners in scoring position. With RISP he has limited the Giants' opponents to a .115 batting average, a .222 on-base percentage, and a .173 slugging percentage for a nearly invisible .395 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Matt has struggled once runners get into scoring position, allowing a poor (and uncharacteristic) .314/.372/.514/.886 in comparison.
Lincecum showed at Fresno a year ago how tough he could be with runners on base and in scoring position, allowing just one hit with runners on and nary a hit with RISP in his five starts there. But NO ONE is as good in this regard as Tim has been. Tim has shown a true propensity for
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kicking ass
and taking names
my cousin and i got noah lowry's autograph after he came out of a porta-potty. he was nice about it.
by hubert on May 14, 2008 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, please continue
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on May 14, 2008 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes when Tim throws his changeup, he takes off every zig in addition to a few MPH.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 14, 2008 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has shown a true propensity for...
Aaaaarrrrrrggghhh.
by Sandor Clegane on May 14, 2008 1:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
Wow! About two-thirds of this post somehow vanished in to cyber space. I’ll re-do the rest of it tomorrow.
Actually, I just wanted to leave everyone hanging, kind of like Tim does when he paints the corners or fools ‘em with his off-speed stuff. :)
I have no idea what happened, but clearly it wasn’t good. Not a problem. I don’t think I’ll have too much problem recreating it. It will merely take time.
And as the Rolling Stones said, time is on my side (yes, it is).
by sharksrog on May 14, 2008 1:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cain would totally own Lincecum in a Home Run Derby though.
by Natto on May 14, 2008 2:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
word
Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on May 14, 2008 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Currently with more HR’s than Andruw Jones
Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on May 14, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the sped up gifs. Feels like I’m watching a newsreel from the ‘20s.
by xanthan on May 14, 2008 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best part is
That was a no-doubter. Micah Owings, eat your heart out.
Chances of using Cain as a PH ? The guy seriously can rake.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 14, 2008 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DEFINITELY Cain should PH... when Eugenio comes up in a tough spot!
[Ducking]
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on May 14, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
real men pull the ball
enough of this opposite-field HR crap, Owings.
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 14, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but...
timmy would absolutely own matt in a Short Goofy Guy Derby.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on May 14, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he can also pull off the modern day cowboy hat
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 14, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Bowie is calling for a walk off
Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on May 14, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey noob!
It’s pwn you tool.
Adoptive papa to Omar...so basically I'm screwed.
by PacBellBoozer on May 14, 2008 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you’ve got more coming, but wouldn’t pitching with RISP generally be the kind of thing that doesn’t exist as an appreciable skill, and the kind of thing we would expect to see regress toward the level of Tim’s pitching in other situations?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 14, 2008 2:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
RISP yes, Runners On No.
May be a stretch/windup difference.
But, pitching w/ RISP could also be a mental issue.
However, I struggle to think Cain lacks mental toughyness.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 14, 2008 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or, it could be a fluke.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on May 14, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small sample
I certainly don’t think Matt lacks mental toughness; rather, he personifies it.
I think what we’re looking at here is primarily a small sample situation. On the other hand, I think Tim may indeed be capable of pitching better when things get tough because when he really, really bears down, has so much to bring to the table.
Tim has done his worst pitching to the leadoff man of each inning. Then once he gets into a little trouble, he has tended to get REALLY tough.
In Matt’s case I think we’re looking primarily at a small sample. In Tim’s case, I think we’re looking at a small sample and a guy who can really turn up the heat when needed.
by sharksrog on May 14, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The /fx files—why is Lincecum outpitching Cain?
Because Tiimmy’s the better pitcher?
Seems simple enough to me.
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 14, 2008 8:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum is either pitching way over his head right now
Or he is one of the best pitchers in the last 50 years.
Only time will tell.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 14, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ironically
Ironically, I consider both to be true.
by sharksrog on May 14, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 14, 2008 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.... except for the misuse of "ironic"
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on May 14, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
That’s so ironic that you agree and don’t agree!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on May 14, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, this is a comment title…
I believe the correct term is: “he was being ironical.”
"Mow bwiefings?" "More briefings."
by stobgopper on May 14, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was ironicizing.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 15, 2008 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irony is essential to good nutrition.
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on May 15, 2008 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is an interesting stat, but I’m not so sure it’s “why” Lincecum is outpitching Cain. (Maybe the rest of your post elaborates on this.) Lincecum is, generally speaking, doing a better job at keeping runners off the basepaths than Cain —he has 11 fewer walks than Cain and 4 fewer hits allowed. Cain has pitched four more innings, but the point I’m trying to make is that Matt has gotten (or put) himself into more high-stress situations with RISP, which increases his pitch count, which makes him more hittable. So it’s probably a causal relationship.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
by Kitspool on May 14, 2008 8:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
You make a good point here, Kitspool. The one point I didn’t even completely finish certainly didn’t fully explain “why” Tim has outpitched Matt. I’m not sure the five I tried to send fully do so, since there are a few pieces of information that aren’t available. But I think it does a good enough job to be intriguing, if not comprehensive.
So now it’s time to recreate those five points, which I will do under the title: The /fx Files—They’re out there.
by sharksrog on May 14, 2008 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Mulder and Vin Scully?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 14, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is correct
You nailed it, Baron! Mark Mulder is left-handed, which automatically qualifies him, and I think we’ll use Jon Miller doing his Vince Scully imitation as the female lead.
by sharksrog on May 14, 2008 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FOR WHAT!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on May 14, 2008 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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