Hot Amateur Action! Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Gaming Search Engine Traffic
by Grant Brisbee on May 12, 2008 1:51 PM PDT
Email
PrintWith the amateur draft less than a month away, it’s about time for the bi-monthly debate regarding the Giants’ drafting philosophy. Currently, the philosophy is pitchers, pitchers, and more pitchers. The Giants have a new front-office crew in place, so maybe they'll bring a different perspective. But it's possible that they’ve already drank the organizational Kool-Aid. If they have, that only means one thing: A big pitcher will come bursting through the walls of the Giants front office on draft day. Ohh yeah!
I’m pretty sure that joke doesn’t work, but it was worth a shot.
The scuttlebutt from Baseball America is that this draft has a clear top four. Two of the top four – Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz – are pitchers. Tampa Bay might consider going out of the top four for the first overall pick, as they’re rumored to be hot for Buster Posey. I’d be thrilled with Posey just for the "Arrested Development"-related jokes, but that’s a post for another time.
If the Giants get a chance to draft Crow or Matusz, should they do it?
Pro:
The Giants know pitching. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brad Hennessey, and Noah Lowry were all first round picks, with all except Lincecum coming from the bottom half of the first round. Scoff at the Lowrennessy tandem if you must, but a lot of teams wish their first-rounders had as successful of a run. I trust the Giants’ ability to evaluate amateur pitchers more than any other team in the league.
Con:
The Giants no hitting. In a draft with a gaggle of sweet-hitting first basemen, catchers who can hit, and a pair of offensive-minded shortstops, can the Giants pass up an opportunity to pick from the best of the bunch?
There are more pros and cons, of course, but they’re basically variants on the same theme. What might make me come down on the con side, though, is that the Giants have had luck picking pitchers after the first round. Kevin Correia, Pat Misch, Jonathan Sanchez, Billy Sadler, and Brian Wilson are just the examples from the current roster. It might make more sense to go for offense with the fifth pick and hope for repeated success in the later rounds.
But if the Giants see either Crow or Matusz as a special talent – a Lincecum-type top-of-the-rotation guy – I won’t complain if they draft one of them. The organization has a pretty sweet track record when it comes to first-round pitching; they aren’t the Pirates, for instance. If the Giants draft either Crow or Matusz because they’re the "safe" pick – the kind of pitcher that should advance quickly but never dominate – then I will complain until I alienate every last reader of this site. I’ll never really know what the front office really thinks, so I should probably complain before the draft starts just to make sure.
Pitchers v. hitters. The debate still has a couple of weeks before being driven right into the ground. Have at it.
59 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well, I doubt any one hitter is going to make or break this team...
And unless we draft a college hitter who is nearly ML ready (is there such a thing) the Giants will have had to get over their current farm-system drought before that player is ready for the ML anyways.
Sooo, with that in mind, I think you need to pick the best avaliable player. If it is the case that a pitcher and a hitter are about equal, it might be wise to go for the hitter just because the pitching department in both ML and MiL looks pretty good right now.
But if they think one of these guys is Caincecum II, then they need to go for him.
You can always trade for a bat later, right?
right?
...
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
BTW
I saw what you did there, Dr. Strangelove.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
I don't drink water. Don't you know what fish DO in water?
I c wut u did thar.
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
by Andy from DC on May 12, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
only purified or rain water.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
Stay true to your draft boards
The organization has had meetings, viewed video, attended games, checked and cross-checked. Now time to review and score each talent. If the organization has a highly rated talent on their board fall to them at #5 then draft/sign/develop that player regardless of position.
My first choice is Vandy 3b Pedro Alvarez. Want him on the Will Clark fastrack to The City,
Draft board?
Try staying true to THE BIG BOARD!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Took me a second..
To get that, but I got it.
Basically I think if one of the top 4 is still there, pick the one that is left, and if there are two pick the hitter. If all else fails, then pick a hitter.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I do trust the Giants with regards to choosing pitchers who are good, but goddamn, the organization needs more impact hitters and I’d be really surprised if an Alvarez or a Smoak wasn’t available at #5.
THE KOOL-AID JOKE MADE ME LOL, I don’t know, I’m a sucker for that sort of thing.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
“For most of the year, the consensus top four prospects have been Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow and San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz. None of them is flawless, and none has separated himself from the pack, like Vandy lefty David Price did a year ago. Nevertheless, they all have more of a standout tool than Posey does.”
I think that kind of indicates that things have changed a little bit with Posey’s awesome year. Same with G Beckham. Also I think the only thing holding Smoak back from being the consensus 5 was that its such a deep draft in 1B.
We can’t take a pitcher. We just can’t.
My priorities at #5 go as follows:
1. 1B Justin Smoak: A switch hitter with power that projects to 35-40 home runs. He has a smooth upper body in his swing, is a threat from both sides of the plate, and is said to be pretty athletic at first base. The things being said about Smoak are similar to the reviews Matt LaPorta got before he was drafted last year.
2. 3B Pedro Alvarez: Tagged as the best college hitter since Alex Gordon, Alvarez projects to be a middle of the order run producer, works deep counts, and has above average bat speed.
3. C Kyle Shipworth: Draws comparisons to Joe Mauer, only with more of a power approach. Has a plus arm behind the plate, and "pole-to-pole" power potential.
4. SP Aaron Crow: Three plus pitches, with a mid 90’s fastball, 87 mph power slider, and a good changeup, is already a refined product who would rise through the system quickly. Has above average command in addition to his plus repitoire.
5. SS Tim Beckham: Is said to be a 5-tool shortstop with projectable power, but still needs to iron out his mechanics. Is a solid to plus runner, with a good glove.
6. 1B Eric Hosmer: Is said to have "the most natural swing in the draft," in addition to being an above average fielder at first. Has a disciplined eye at the plate, and draws comparisons to Casey Kotchman.
Giants Cove: You'll be a better person for reading
I want to learn more about Shipworth
That option actually sounds great!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
Standout tool
Whatever happened to “skill”? It’s a perfectly fine word. Oh, to be living in more innocent times.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
great visual and metaphor...not so great joke
But it’s possible that they’ve already drank the organizational Kool-Aid. If they have, that only means one thing: A big pitcher will come bursting through the walls of the Giants front office on draft day. Ohh yeah!I’m pretty sure that joke doesn’t work, but it was worth a shot.
it was worth a shot…i guess
But…the Giants need to take a Position player, that is of course the best available. Then with their later picks: use the great evaluating skills to draft pitchers.
Get the Bats
Alvarez or Smoak, in that order. Sure, we can hope that Boras has scared folks away from Alvarez, but I’m not sure that will hold. Regardless of what they do with AnVil, I would still grab Smoak now to be the 1B at the big team by 2010, because he handles the position well now, better than AnVil may end up handling it. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Giants’ 2011 squad to be anchored by Villalona and Smoak at the corners, with Cain and Lincecum at the top of the rotation with Alderson and Mad Bum.
The big question is what to do if they are both gone. At this point, I’d grab Tim Beckham to nail down the center of the infield for years to come, since none of the in-house SS candidates would start ahead of him if he were ready now.
The question about Jackson Williams at the end of that Callis Q&A puts the line about Posey’s lack of a “standout tool” into perspective. In Williams, the Giants drafted a guy who did have one truly outstanding ability; unfortunately, that one ability just isn’t very valuable in a vacuum.
Which is to say, I think well-rounded players with no single spectacular skill, Iike Posey and G. Beckham, are often a bit underrated.
Maybe I’m weary of the cries of ANOTHER PITCHER OMG WHY and the sounds of bloggers throwing themselves down stairs on draft days, but please give me a hitter with the #5 pick. Like I’ve said before I like Smoak best, but Alvarez would be a great option as well. Might as well pick up one Boras client who is less likely to screw us over.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 12, 2008 2:51 PM PDT reply actions
This is why all bloggers live in their parents' basements...
...you can’t throw yourself down the stairs if you’re already at the bottom.
All-Father Watch: 1.33 ERA, 3 saves, 0.98 WHIP, 19 Ks in 20 1/3 IP
This is very profound.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 12, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Infield Bat
I think they have to go hitter and dare I say it, you have to go 3B. It is either that, or you sign Joe Crede this offseason, and we don’t want that. Problem is, Alvarez will probably be gone when the Giants draft. Hopefully not because he is the best fit. But I wouldn’t be afraid to take Smoak either, even with the Angel playing 1B now. I have confidence they can pick some pitching in the later rounds as well.
HITTER.
I, like you, do trust the Giants front office when they pick pitchers, but please, I want a hitter. The Giants have hit rock bottom in terms of hitting (okay, maybe not, but they do suck) and a standout hitter would be great.
BTW, great Kool-Aid joke!
I want a restocked farm system too.
I really do, I want young hitters and pitchers to run free in SJ, CT and the Frez.
That said, you gotta take best avail. If said player is panning out, look to another team who’s got a position prospect panning out and do some swapping of prospects – yes I know sabes hasn’t proven he can do that yet, but a man can dream.
Tentatively adopting Dan Ortmeier. And Boom Goes the Dynamite.
Crow all you want...
...but I think if the Giants get a shot at one of the two shortstops, they’ll take the organizational philosophy and bend it.
by Grant Brisbee on May 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Crow all you want...
...but I think if the Giants get a shot at one of the two shortstops, they’ll take the organizational philosophy and bend it.
by positiveuphemism on May 12, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll Crow loudly thank you
Are we all just Grant sock puppets acting in his world. Could be…
Oh and hitter please.
Let's bring the...
Then why was Sabean scouting Tim and Gordon Beckham recently? Why did Magowan say he thought the Giants had the chance to pick up a first or third baseman? Why did the team use four its top six picks on hitters last year? Why did the Giants use their first picks in 2005 and 2006 on hitters?
I mean, look, I get it. The team prefers pitchers, and Tidrow has been pretty successful at picking good ones. But the Giants have shown increasing signs of being flexible about it. If they take Matusz or Crowe this year, I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they’re going with the top player on their board.
Then why was Sabean scouting Tim and Gordon Beckham recently? Why did Magowan say he thought the Giants had the chance to pick up a first or third baseman? Why did the team use four its top six picks on hitters last year? Why did the Giants use their first picks in 2005 and 2006 on hitters?
I see nothing that contradicts those statements. Taking the best player available means scouting as many as possible to find the best player available. If Sabean was only scouting mid-first round guys like Wallace, Fields, Putnam or Havens, then there might be a complaint, but the Beckham’s are legitimate Top 5 choices, and should be considered. I’d imagine he’s taking looks at Crow, Matusz, and Alvarez as well, as he should be.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on May 13, 2008 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Crow all you want...
...but I think if the Giants get a shot at one of the two shortstops, they’ll take the organizational philosophy and bend it.
by positiveuphemism on May 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT reply actions
Posts are disappearning
Cover your heads and run for the hills!
by positiveuphemism on May 12, 2008 3:17 PM PDT reply actions
Are they load bearing posts?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 12, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I am a huge fan of Gordon Beckham
...as huge a fan as an amateur non-scout can be having seen the dude play on TV all of one time. But here is the case for him: if I’m not mistaken he leads the nation in home runs with 22 (I know for sure he was leading about a week or 10 days ago), he is currently hitting .402/.508/.824 (not sure how the toy bat numbers convert to the real world). Last summer he led the Cape Cod League (where they use wooden bats) in home runs, tied for the league lead in RBIs and was 2nd in extra base hits so he doesn’t seem to be some kind of aluminum bat specialist. And, he does all of this while playing what most scouts I have read describe as MLB adequate defense at Shortstop. I am certainly not a proponent of drafting for need, but Vizquel’s injury certainly exposed the fact that this organization has a gaping crater at SS from top to bottom.
I like Smoak a lot too, I’ve seen him play on TV some in the last couple of College World Serieseses.
All of that being said, if one of these pitchers are there and they really feel like they are a special arm I will give the Giants the benefit of the doubt on that one.
Pure Masher vs. Natural Hitter
The Giants just have to go with a hitter at #5.
That said, it seems like there’s always a choice between pure masher types and natural hitter types. Pure mashers are DH type guys with suspect defense, but plenty of power. Natural hitter types tend to be the gamers, a bit more athletic, with natural baseball instincts. Think Kevin Mitchell vs. Will Clark.
I’ve always been a natural hitter kinda guy, but recent drafts are making me question this. Case in point, in last year’s draft, the pure masher was Matt LaPorta and the natural hitter type was Beau Mills. We were supposed to have a good shot at both of them at #10, as both were projected to be mid-first rounders, but the Brewers shocked everyone by taking LaPorta #7 and he’s been tearing up AA already.
In 2005, a similar comparison can be made for Alex Gordon, the natural hitter type, and Ryan Braun, the pure masher. It seems like the Brewers got the better hitter, though I admit it’s too early to tell.
So it brings us to this year’s pure masher vs. the natural hitter comparison. Yonder Alonso vs. Justin Smoak. Now, if the Brewers had the #5, I’m guessing they’d go with the Floridian pure masher Alonso, as that has really worked out for them (Braun, LaPorta).
I think the draft philosophy of the Giants FO should be WWJBD: What Would Jesus-Christ Brewers Do? In fact, why not trade one of our pitching scouts for one of the Brewers hitting scouts?
Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance
from what i've heard
alonso might be the best pure hitter in the draft and smoak will be “mashing” a lot more hrs, so i don’t know if this analogy works.
Just a little history
not sure if anyone has done this yet, but here is a list of all position players we have ever taken in the overall top 5 in the draft:
1985, #2 overall pick: Will Clark
1986, #3 overall pick: Matt Williams
and here is a list of all the pitchers we have ever taken, top 5 overall:
1997, #4 overall pick: Jason Grilli
what does this mean? it means we are batting 1.000 on hitters and 0.00 on pitchers (sample size might have an impact).
what else does this mean? it means i had no idea how few top 5 picks we have ever had.
anyhow, i actually trust the giants enough to choose the best available player.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
Thanks to you I went looking at Giants first picks.
I had some how managed to block the pain that is top 10 over all picks before Will & Matty. The horror!
5 picks above the 10 slot in 11 years, 2 #10’s, and 2 #11. Of that batch I think only Mark Grant & LeMaster saw significant MLB time.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on May 13, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d really, really like Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez. Like a lot. If I HAD to rank them, I’d probably slightly prefer Alvarez, but it’s kinda close. I’d settle for the Beckham from another mother, though, based mostly on what I’m reading here.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on May 12, 2008 6:25 PM PDT reply actions
Is this an appropriate place to place a note about the upcoming draft on the McC sister site MinorLeagueBall (run by John Sickels), and putting in input about who to draft?
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2008/5/12/508231/mock-draft-on-minorleagueb
I still say draft BPA, and if it’s a pitcher, so be it…but I’d weight more towards hitters in making a ranking list.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
BPA!!
but hopefully one of the top four falls (especially Posey) and the Giants are willing to spend the money to sign them
BPA
Ultimately i’d go with the best player available, although all things considered i’d prefer the hitter. My preferences at the moment would probably be for:
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Tim Beckham
3. Justin Smoak
4. Aaron Crow
5. Brian Matusz
6. Buster Posey
7. Gordan Beckham
8. Eric Hosmer
9. Kyle Shipworth
10. Tanner Scheppers
The difference between a number of those preferences is tiny though & could go either way.
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Coming soon to a bullpen near you!
Also of note:
The Giants should probably look primarily at hitters who are “safe” bets to contribute at the ML level. The Giants are not in a great position to be making high-risk high-reward type of selections, and instead should focus on players that have a high chance of being solid ML players in a relatively short timeframe, as we majorly need the help.
We don’t need to draft the next Arod. The next Bill Mueller would be just fine.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
We don’t need to draft the next Arod. The next Bill Mueller would be just fine.
We don’t need to get to the playoffs. Third place in the division would be just fine.
Flaxseed oil dependent
No, the two statements are not equivilent.
This team is not a team full of pretty good players who needs to develop superstar talent to progress to the next level.
This is a team full of replacement players that needs to develop pretty good talent to progress to the next level.
If player A has a very high upside, but is young with a lot of question marks as to being able to put it all together (Angel) while player B has a lower upside, but is a college player or is otherwise very close to being ML ready and has a much higher chance of actually making it to the big club, we should look much more heavily at player B.
An established team like the Red Sox can afford to risk investing a pick in a risky high upside player. We really can’t right now as we need all of the ML ready talent we can get. If they waste their pick on someone who blows out and never becomes anything, it’s probably not going to matter. We can’t afford to waste picks at this point.
Now that doesnt mean that you don’t take a player if he has a very high upside as well as being able to fasttrack to the ML, but it is big consideration with a lot of these highschool projected superstars that people are so in love with.
Some people don’t seem to understand risk vs. reward in relation to the position you are currently in. Our position is really about as bad as it can get, and we need as many sure things as we can find.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 13, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I am torn on this.
Part of me realizes if the Giants have a net gain of 2-3 "B" level MLB position players without losing much pitching in the next 2-3 years they will have to be reckoned with by whomever wants to win the NL West.
The other part of me says we don’t get first cuts at the elite talent too often. My gut says they should take the risk on a high talent guy that could be Elite in a few years. I am not saying take a reckless risk. Just realize there are not many 4 tool guys ( lets not speak about 5 tool) that are hitting the free agent market any more and this about the only chance we have at getting one in the system.
As for Pitcher V Position Player I am usually a best player available guy. With the top pick and the state of the franchise I think the Pitcher would have to be obviously and clearly better then and other remaining position players. Rely on our strength of find and developing pitchers with the sandwich pick.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
by daveinexile on May 13, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
BPA
Rank the players and stay true to your rankings. Going in with the unequivocal intention of drafting a hitter is stupid – what if the first 4 picks are T. Beckham, Alvarez, Smoak & Posey? And what if your scouts don’t particularly like G. Beckham (size) or Skipworth (HS C risk) or Boras – er, I mean, Eric Hosmer? Draft someone you don’t particularly like? Or overdraft someone like Alonso, Weeks, Davis or Wallace because we “have to draft a hitter” and leave obviously superior prospects like Crow and Matusz on the board?
Please. Our management may be borderline incompetent, but they actually draft pretty well and we haven’t hired Littlefield to run things.
Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Baltimore’s tradition of fans shouting ‘O!’ during national anthem sparks interleague feud
- Chris Perez follows rant against Cleveland fans with even better rant against Cleveland fans
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
- Man beaten by four others in Dodger Stadium parking lot
