Mock Draft on MinorLeagueBall

I can’t post on Minor League Ball until I’m a member in a day, so I’ll say my piece here. My personal rankings go as follows:

1. 1B Justin Smoak: A switch hitter with power that projects to 35-40 home runs. He has a smooth upper body in his swing, is a threat from both sides of the plate, and is said to be pretty athletic at first base. The things being said about Smoak are similar to the reviews Matt LaPorta got before he was drafted last year.

2. 3B Pedro Alvarez: Tagged as the best college hitter since Alex Gordon, Alvarez projects to be a middle of the order run producer, works deep counts, and has above average bat speed.

3. C Kyle Shipworth: Draws comparisons to Joe Mauer, only with more of a power approach. Has a plus arm behind the plate, and “pole-to-pole” power potential.

4. SP Aaron Crow: Three plus pitches, with a mid 90’s fastball, 87 mph power slider, and a good changeup, is already a refined product who would rise through the system quickly. Has above average command in addition to his plus repitoire.

5. SS Tim Beckham: Is said to be a 5-tool shortstop with projectable power, but still needs to iron out his mechanics. Is a solid to plus runner, with a good glove.

6. 1B Eric Hosmer: Is said to have “the most natural swing in the draft,” in addition to being an above average fielder at first. Has a disciplined eye at the plate, and draws comparisons to Casey Kotchman.

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by Chulk on May 12, 2008 2:19 PM PDT 0 recs

I want to hear other people's comments on Shipworth

If y’all would be so kind.

Müch äss. Grässy äss.

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by hairball on May 12, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

first of all his name is SKipworth

by wilriv21 on May 12, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not a fan of hitting catchers

Position scarcity be damned. Their careers tend to be shorter, and they automatically miss 20+ games a season.

Not a very useful comment, but I am very bored.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on May 12, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not a fan of catcher prospects

I want my young pitchers to know that the guy calling the pitches knows more about the game than they ever will. That way they don’t have to think, they can just maintain a sort of Zen state of mind and be one with their pitches.

by Change Up on May 12, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up 0 recs

Meh

That’s the pitching coach’s bag, he knows more about pitching than the catcher ever will. A good TA is a nice luxury, but the TA is the one you rarely see because the professor is doing his job.

As long as he doesn’t embarrass himself with the glove or stick, I’m fine. I wouldn’t pay for excellence in either area. Like a said, he missed too many games to make the offense worth paying for, and I just don’t see that much difference between an excellent and average defensive catcher. The defensive bar to make the major is set so high at the position that range of performance is relatively low (in other words, IMO, the difference between an excellent and competent catcher is far, far less than the difference between an excellent and competent CF/SS/2B/3B).

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on May 12, 2008 11:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

er, there's a "best" missing after the "the" in the second sentence.

how do you edit posts?

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on May 12, 2008 11:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Along the same format

1. Alvarez. If we can get a third baseman by all means.
2. Crow. Great power pitcher.
3. Beckham. Of course the Giants could throw a gazillion dollars at Edward Salcedo instead (pending confirm of his birthday)
4. Matusz. Assuming the Giants brain trust approve. Otherwise Alonso
5. Alonso. Of all the 1B I like him the best. We know he can hit with wood and will be a great gap hitter with patience in AT&T.

Runner up: Smoak. Also could be a great pick. Poor Cape Cod with bat gives me grounds for concern and I don’t like his swing quite as much as Alonso’s.

by Change Up on May 12, 2008 2:27 PM PDT 0 recs

What about Alonso?

Tell me more about the Alonso vs. Smoak comparison. You may have an interesting point there, and I was thinking that Smoak looked good already.

by Buck Henry on May 12, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Alonso doesn’t have “fence power,” and for now is a gap-to-gap hitter. Smoak is a much more refined product, while Alonso needs a lot more work, especially considering he’s a college-level player.

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by Chulk on May 12, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

really? from what I read it seemed like Alonso was the more traditional power hitter

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by tellusfrank on May 12, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yonder Alsonso V. Justin Smoak

Most of what I hear when hearing the comparison is something like this.

Yonder Alonso is a LHH somewhat unathletic polished hitter with good plate discipline, and an advanced approach. A good hitter for average. His power is to center and opposite field right now. He has good raw bat speed. His defense is only so-so. The problem is projection. Since he’s not a particularly athletic player there’s a question as how to much he’s likely to improve. FWIW he tore up the wood bat Cape Cod League last night.

Justin Smoak is known for his power. He’s a switch hitter and hits for good power. He’s more of a true athlete and has better long-term projection than Yonder Alonso. His defense is solid to above average. Right now his swing is still slow and easy and suggests that he could develop a great deal more power. I believe that his power is primarily to the pull side.

I would pick Alonso over Smoak because A) he’s shown the ability to hit well with wood and B) i’m not 100% convinced that Smoak has true wood bat power too. In the brief snippet of film he didn’t seem to get the bathead going very fast. While I’m sure he could hit for power most places, I don’t think he can do it from the left side at At&t.

Now I haven’t met either of them. If one of struck me as having a true fire in their hearts for the game that would negate the above stuff.

by Change Up on May 12, 2008 4:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

Alonso

Will most likely have to be a DH later on in his career. I’d rather take the guy guaranteed to play the field and with more power potential. The Giants seem to love athletic players, so that probably takes Alonso out of consideration for the most part.

And if/when Angel arrives, I’d imagine Smoak would be athletic enough to handle LF (Kevin Goldstein thinks so too, FWIW)- but I don’t think Alonso would.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 12, 2008 8:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

I’m going to assume you mean Tim Beckham, not Gordon Beckham.

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

im pretty sure

two years ago he was mvp of the cape cod league so I find that point moot. Alonso, in most of the mock drafts, isn’t even taken till mid first round so I think you have him a bit high. he may have a more natural stroke, but he has no where near the hr potential.

by zeisenbe on May 12, 2008 5:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

Why no mention of Brett Wallace?

He can play either corner infield spots, takes way more walks than strikeouts(which NOBODY in this entire organization seems to do) and hits for a ton of power. What’s the deal?

by superk1ng on May 12, 2008 4:06 PM PDT 0 recs

he’s considered sort of a reach at #5. of course, that could change, but let’s just say he’s not outperforming guys like alvarez, smoak, and alonso.

Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance

by tellusfrank on May 12, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

Brett Wallace is a great college hitter but there’s a question as to how good he’ll be in the bigs. And I believe he actually has a poorer BB/K ratio than either Alonso or Smoak. There’s a very good chance he could still be around when we draft our supplemental pick

by Change Up on May 12, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

If the Giants were drafting at 10, I think he’d be mentioned. But there are a good half dozen players I don’t think anyone would dispute are better picks than him, and he’s not likely to be around at #37. Good player, but I don’t think he’s on anyone’s draft sheets.

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

My list

1. Alvarez. Consensus top prospect.
2. Tim Beckham. oozes projection and is already very very good. Justin Upton with a bit less polish
3. Kyle Skipworth. I am really really really high on this kid. Just an excellent swing and a very athletic kid behind the plate. plus arm and definitely should stay behind the plate. if not, could definitely fit at third.
4. Smoak. Close to majors, great power, stuck at first. He might be able to switch to left field. A good, very solid pick.
5. Crow. Best pitcher in the draft. Not an elite talent, but a very good pitcher.
6. Eric Hosmer. best power potential in the draft and has a great swing. I’d much prefer Smoak if we’re going to take a 1b.
7. Matusz. He’s just fine and really is just below Crow.
8. Gordon Beckham. He’s solid across the board, with plus hitting ability, but i don’t think he’s going to stick at short.

for a guy to consider int he 4th or 5th round, look at Darren Mullen. He’s a local kid who hits from the left handed side, plays an excellent defensive catcher and definitely has the body to get some more power. He’s awesome. a douche. but awesome at baseball.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 12, 2008 4:09 PM PDT 0 recs

Hey Brute

Here’s some sandwich guys that I thought looked good:

Casey Kelly High School SS. Graceful but at 6-4 more likely to be 3B as big leaguer. Tall RHH/RHP. Projectible to hit for power. Also a pitcher with 3 potential plus pitches.

Kevin Eichorn. High School RHP. Although a bit small, good mechanics and command. Good FB movement. A little slow ~90 but he’s likely to fill out a bit more. Good 2ndry stuff.

Destin Hood. High School SS/OF. Great Athlete. Big time Power potential and good Contact hitter. Still pretty raw (football player, too). Swing reminds me of Michael Burgess from last year.

Also take a look at Brett Lawrie. Great RH power bat. Plus arm. Right now he’s a catcher with quickness and he might be able to play at 3B.

by Change Up on May 12, 2008 4:45 PM PDT 0 recs

High School Football Players

The Giants haven’t exactly had much luck with high school football players who have lingering injuries from the gridiron (Marcus Sanders and Wendell Fairley). But depending on where he might be ranked overall, he might be an interesting value.

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 7:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

Hey Brute I have a full write-up of my draft board here:

http://mvn.com/mlb-giants/2008/05/12/giants-draft-day-speculation/

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by Chulk on May 12, 2008 5:39 PM PDT 0 recs

Thanks, Chulk! Nice list, especially that Ethan Martin kid…

Question: You didn’t put Brian Matusz on your overall rankings. Do you see him as a ‘left off the list’ kind of guy, and if so, why?

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

For whatever reason I’m really just not impressed with Matusz. He has good stuff, but he really doesn’t seem any better than Tanner Schepper, Gerrit Cole, or even Christian Friedrich, all of which have better velocity, and better secondary pitches to boot.

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by Chulk on May 12, 2008 7:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm surprised

That you have Cole rated higher than Matusz. Cole looks like he’s bound to be a reliever. I can understand Scheppers, but Matusz is a far safer choice to reach his ceiling IMO. But to each their own.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 12, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

And

I’d personally rate Tim Melville higher than Cole and Friedrich. Reminds me some of Cain.

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 12, 2008 11:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

i dont know about that

From what I heard he has 3 or 4 plus/potential plus pitches and is considered the “safest of safe” of the pitching class. He might be the best overall pitcher at this point so i would have to disagree with you that firstly, he is not better than those you mentioned above, and secondly, that those guys have better secondary pitches.

by zeisenbe on May 12, 2008 10:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

A couple of second round/sandwich round suggestions: Ike Davis (ASU) 1B and reliever who could definitely man a corner OF spot if necessary and Jason Castro (Stanford) C. Castro in particular seems like a good prospect who really came on this year as a hitter, in part due to an injury he battled all season last year as a sophomore that apparently really hampered him at the plate.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on May 12, 2008 6:36 PM PDT 0 recs

Yea, Castro is on my early short list to look for in compensation round. Everything about him fits the Giants, from talking about local kids to a spot that could use a hitting prospect. I’d like to see what the thoughts are about him staying at catcher long-term.

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 7:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

I’ve been to a few Stanford games this year and from what I’ve seen he definitely looks athletic enough. I think his arm is good enough as well. If anything, the one thing I might be a bit nervous about is his height… he’s listed at 6-3, but I’m 6-3 and when I stood next to him he seemed taller by an inch or two, which is pushing it for a catcher. Still, a catching prospect with a decent bat who hits left handed? Sign me up for the bandwagon. Hell, I’ll drive it.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on May 12, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

Overall draft strategy

Draft people that don’t suck, especially early in the draft.

I'm an ESPN Insider!

by The Thrill on May 12, 2008 7:16 PM PDT 0 recs

If Tyson Ross squeaks to the 2nd round, he’d be high on my list. Of course, one of the 1,002 first basemen will probably fall, so that’s a consideration too.

by Grant on May 12, 2008 8:25 PM PDT 0 recs

Do you mean David Cooper?

Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.

by Anticon23 on May 12, 2008 8:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

Good call on Ross. One of the Giants’ few organizational strengths is identifying and developing pitchers, so if Tidrow doesn’t mind Ross’ delivery, then neither do I.

by Dan from NM on May 12, 2008 9:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

A potential problem for this draft: I suspect pretty much everyone is getting their information from the same sources—Baseball America, milb.com, Keith Law, etc. I’d stick with those sources, too, for the first and supplemental picks.

But here’s where we have a big advantage. Brute actually talks to people in the industry, which I think is a chance to maybe get a couple names for the third to fifth rounders that haven’t been talked up by the usual sources.

by Dan from NM on May 12, 2008 9:36 PM PDT 0 recs

I appreciate the thought, but there are few things that a team is more tightlipped on than amateur scouting. (Perhaps only contract negotiations get more of a shut-mouth policy. I’m ever surprised when I get any comments about that.)

It’s the people with college contacts that would have the information that could be shared. I have a few local college sources, but across the country? That’d be tough. This is one place where I miss being a part of Scout.com, with their college contacts and network affiliates.

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by BruteSentiment on May 12, 2008 11:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

Draft thoughts

I’m on the record as preferring Gordon Beckham with our #5 pick (assuming the likely culprits are chosen before us). Here’s my thinking: Gordon is currently a SS with power (led the Cape Cod League in HR) who either (best case) stays at SS and becomes Barry Larkin/Cal Ripken Jr. or (lesser-but-still good case) gets a bit too big for SS and moves over to 3B, giving us a power-hitting 3B with great hands. That, it seems to me, is a win-win situation. For me, Smoak would be second choice.

What I’m more interested in is our #37 pick. I’d like to suggest two players for you:

3B James Darnell, South Carolina
RHP Daniel Webb, Heath HS, Paducah, KY

I think 3B is the hardest position to fill in the ML currently, so I place greater value on them. If we don’t choose Gordon Beckham or Pedro Alvarez in the first round, I really hope we pick Darnell at #37.

In thinking of HS pitchers, just outside the “top” group, I really like Webb.

Castro, the catcher, would also be an interesting selection.

Good luck, Kevin!

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by Lyle on May 13, 2008 7:51 AM PDT 0 recs

Due to all the supplemental round and compensatory picks my count may be off...

but I believe the Giants will have the 82nd pick in the 3rd round, the 117th pick in the 4th, and the 147th pick in the 5th, is that right, Brute?

Some thoughts:
82. Zach Collier, HS OF, raw, but with good tools across the board.
Roger Keischnick, College OF, if he drops this far.
117. Lonnie Chisenhall, JC 3B, good bat but character issues… Giants showed they may not be overly concerned with drafting of Fairley last year.
147. Tom Federowicz or Petey Paramore, College C’s, good gloves, decent bats… maybe more upside than J. Williams?

by baseballjunkie on May 13, 2008 10:24 AM PDT 0 recs

What kinds of character issues on Chisenhall?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 13, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

Chrisenhall probably suffers from looking-like-a-douchebaganitis

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by SoFa King Mike on May 13, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up 0 recs

Seriously

He had an off the field incident that led to his dismissal from University of South Carolina.

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on May 13, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up 0 recs

Wow

Getting dimissed from USC? You gotta do something bad to earn that.

-

Haha, SUCK IT USC (even though I’m secretly talking about USC, and not the University of South Carolina)!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 13, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

+1

USC (University of Spoiled Children) can suck it easy!

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on May 13, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

+10000000000000

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 13, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yikes. And yeah agreeing with Howie below, that’s a pretty grand feat of asshattery to get thrown out there.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 13, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

He’s probably miffed that taking the picture made is making him miss his recording session with his cousin’s Macbook for his rap album.

SAVE_US.RAY
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by Natto on May 13, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

PittPittZão

Adopted father of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on May 13, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

agreed

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 13, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dismissed.

“His Gamecock career ended abruptly after he was arrested on burglary and grand larceny charges. “

Come on, who hasn’t done that?

by mxmob33 on May 13, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

raises hand

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on May 13, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

I just didn’t get caught…that’s where this guy failed.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 13, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think that’s the red flag they’re referring to.

Somebody’s going to have to take the chance that he can keep his grand larceny concealed better in the future.

by mxmob33 on May 13, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

Language in his pro contract guarantees an experienced getaway driver for future grand larceny attempts.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 14, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

Tanner Scheppers

What is anyone’s take on the kid pitcher from Fresno? Seems to be a big kid, who is local and new to pitching gem the SF organization seems to appreciate.

by wilriv21 on May 13, 2008 3:10 PM PDT 0 recs

Eric Thames - Pepperdine

Love this kids easy stroke and good eye at the plate. He has been playing CF but I think he will more likely be a LF in the bigs. I would like to take a shot on this kind in the early rounds. Another big name that i think the Giants will ultimately select is the kid from Howard College who they have previously drafted, SS Tyler Ladendorf. Also, I have seen Matusz pitch in person and that guy knows how to pitch and will be up quickly because he works down in the zone really well and can really paint that low 90s lefty heat.

My top picks:
Alvarez 3B VANDY
Smoak 1B USC
Tim Beckham SS HS
Matusz SP USD
Wallace 3B/1B ASU
Crowe SP MISSOURI
Gordon Beckham SS GEORGIA

Supp Round:
Castro C STANFORD
Ladendorf SS HOWARD
Havens SS USC
Ike Davis 1B/OF ASU
Ross SP CAL

3rd Round and on:
Eric Thames OF PEP
Eric Sontag 2B ASU
Cooper 1B CAL
Satin INF CAL

by krukuipandclint on May 13, 2008 8:27 PM PDT 0 recs