April Thoughts
by Goofus on May 1, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
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PrintNow that the month of April is behind us, here are some impressions and thoughts about the team so far. Feel free to add your own:
- The most significant event thus far appears to be Dave Roberts going down, opening the door for Fred Lewis. We all know Lewis isn't this good...or is he? He now has has 260 career MLB ABs and a line of 312/393/458. When you consider all the extra balls he gets to (like in the 8th inning Wednesday), he's doing an admiarable job of replacing old #25.
- My buddy who's a Philly fan said, the more you watch Aaron Rowand play, the more you'll like him, especially the way he takes outside pitches the other way. He was right. If he's this good with cracked ribs, this was a good signing, regardless of how many CFs we already had.
- Is going from a CF/LF of Roberts/Bonds last year to Rowand/Lewis this year an upgrade? Sure looks that way so far. Bonds and Roberts have zero HRs this season while Lewis and Rowand have combined for 4!
- Manny Burriss sure looks like he has more of a clue at the plate than Brian Bocock and is more dangerous on the basepaths. Is his defense so much worse than Bocock's that he shouldn't be getting the vast majority of the playing time? I think not!
- Anyone else notice that Eugenio Velez seems to have a bit of a 'tude? Looks a little too whiny and gumby-shouldered at times. Kruk pointed out how dumb it was to show up the ump by flipping the bat and heading to first before an ump calls ball four. It kinda looked like it was second nature to him.
- The baserunning blunders so far by Lewis, Bocock and Velez have been infuriating, but to be expected. I'm still glad the kids are getting a chance to play.
- Now that we're past the first month, Randy Winn will start contributing...and hopefully raising his trade value.
- Even though I thought it made sense at the time, I'm really glad the Sanchez for Matsuki trade rumors didn't prove to be true.
- That the Giants are only 3 games below .500 despite Barry Zito being in the rotation is a minor miracle. If they can figure out the back of the rotation and play the way they have been, they'll be even more watchable and almost...wait for it...good! Anyone wishing they could get a mulligan on their 2008 record prediction?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I predicted 100 losses
I’ll take that mulligan. Hell, they might even go .500!!
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.
Relevant hijack (Sorry, Goofus)
I actually saw the title and thought you’d be posting about the same thing I decided to post on. Since it’s in the same arena, I’ll post it anyway.
ESPN has their own “April Thoughts” article, and they actually had an interesting idea (shocking, yes). Granted, it was from a baseball official they interviewed, it at least presented an interesting idea. Here’s the clip from this article:
• Baked Zito—the dessert: We also asked high-ranking officials of two clubs what they would do if they had a big-buck disaster like Zito on their team. The first replied: “I’d cry.” The second had a more innovative proposal.“Here’s what they should do,” he said. “They should go to Zito and say, ‘Look, it’s clear this is not going to work. Let’s put together an NBA-type deferral package. We’ll take the whole contract, defer it over 30 years with no interest and then we’ll release you, to let you start fresh somewhere else.’
The club could get significant cost savings that way. You take $112 million over 30 years, that’s $3.7 million a year. You’re better off paying him $3.7 million a year to not pitch than having him go out and do what he’s doing. … In the NBA, this happens a lot. The union would never let him do that in our sport. But you know what? From the player’s standpoint, he’d be better off.”
This sounds like a pretty interesting idea to me, and if Zito’s been humbled enough, let him go somewhere else to reinvent himself, or just quit baseball altogether and surf or whatever the heck he wants. Of course, you’d have to add interest to the salary amount for the time value of money change over 30 years, but still, I’d be okay with $4 million for 30 years to wipe out this mistake.
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
Interesting Idea
Why would the player’s association object to this? It seems like a win-win for both sides. Taking 4 million for 30 years is quite a punch in the gut.
Optimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with winners
Pessimist Outlook: Gamers rhymes with losers
My Outlook: Augusta Greenjackets FTW!!
Probably the interest factor..
In 30 years, that 3.7 million might be worth 4.5 million. And in 30 years, a contract like his might be 7 years 200 million.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I think it’s too early to go down that path. Let’s what he’s able to do with time and pressure off.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
pressure?
I guess I’m wondering what pressure he has other than living up to his contract? The team isn’t contending this year, everyone knows that. If it is pressure related to his contract, that’ll never go away and I don’t see how time could solve that problem. That is, unless contracts start getting thrown out to mediocre pitchers that are 150% of his contract and his starts to pale in comparison (sort of what happened to Griffey, who’s contract seemed ginormous at the time but would be considered reasonable now—by the way, I’m not saying Jr.’s performance in any way has reflected Zito’s)
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 1, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
How is the player better off? Not only does he lose money (due to inflation), he loses a guaranteed spot on a roster, and in an organization that has a strong interest in helping him improve. The union would be right to scoff.
That's why I said to adjust for the time value of money
I’m pretty sure Zito would be able to survive off of $4 million a year, plus whatever the team that signs him will pay him. He could be a laughing stock with the Giants by keeping his gigantic contract or spread it out, go somewhere else, and try to improve himself and get the magic back, so to speak.
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 1, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure Zito would be able to survive off of $4 million a year, plus whatever the team that signs him will pay him.
I love this line ! I can barely afford gas for my car and the money I send to my two daughters in college. $4M ? I’m in .
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
I guess he could help Sprewell feed his kids if he has too much laying around
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 1, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I think there might be tax advantages to deferring the money, as well.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Good thing I'm a CPA
yeah, it would. Paying taxes on 4 million is a lot better than paying it on 20 million
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 1, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
So you're saying...
...that if Zito doesn’t get ~$15 million each year for the next 5 years, the loss in tax revenue would sink our economy? Heck, keep paying the man.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
IT'S BUSH'S FAULT!!!!1!
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 1, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
My April Thoughts
Pretty much mirror yours, but I’ll chime in on a couple.
Velez-I was there on Sunday, unfortunately. Bocock was really furious with him after the inning ending pop up and got right in his face after Velez did not back off the play. Then, Velez pointed to the ground with a rather abrupt gesture like to say, “It was on my side.” I don’t know if either of the broadcasts focused on it, but the events of that inning made me think that Bocock maybe doesn’t have much confidence in Velez’s glove. It also occurred to me that maybe Winn did not take charge of the fly ball to right because he did not trust Velez to back off the play?
Zito-Who? I am so tired of hearing his name. I am going to pretend he is just another guy trying to figure it out. Its the only way to move forward.
I am pleased with the overall entertainment value of this team, and think they can possibly flirt with .500 for at least a portion of the year. However, I personally am trying to temper my enthusiasm because I see a lot of players on this team who have the ability to frustrate and annoy (Castillo, Winn, Bocock, to name a few).
Totally agree on the Bocock/Velez flap. The shortstop is the captain of the infield and if he calls it, it’s his. Velez motioned as if there’s an imaginary line going from home plate to 2nd base and Bocock shouldn’t cross it. This was one of the moments that gave me the impression that Velez has a ‘tude. He’s not good enough to have a ‘tude.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
If he can’t reign in his ‘tude best we learn in the next couple months.
Joe Castle might be a bit better at 2nd then he is at third. It ’s were he played most of his games. And finding 2nd base candidates that should be available in the next 12 months should not be a big problem. Ellis & Lopez ( Wash) are 2 that spring to mind off the top of my head without looking at wavier waviers, blocked guys or the return of Frandsen.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Regarding the 'tude
I agree, he’s not good enough to have it, but to a degree, a lot of people in the media, and fans, created this situation by hyping him up during the spring. Remember Jon saying, “I’ve got two words for you: Eugenio Velez”, when asked about the ‘08 season? That may not have been the wisest thing for him to do. Succeeding in spring is great, but we as Giants fans aided in pumping up the man’s ego.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
I've never met the guy
So I will reserve all opinions on whether he has a ‘tude or not. I just want him to play well.
He’s been playing pretty okay. We don’t need any ‘tudes on this team however.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
that new lefty in our pen
im with you, I’m just gonna pretend like we are a semi-small market team with 20 million fewer dollars to spend per year and some wacky soft tossing lefty in the pen.
In 06 Bocock was promoted from SK to Augusta for the playoffs because while Velez was tearing it up with the bat he was stinking it up with the glove. You make the call as to whether or not there is much confidence in V’s glove.
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan and Jeremiah Luster.
April thoughts
- Our offense is terrible
- And so is our defense
- Lincecum and Sanchez were awesome
- Zito stinks
- Cain needs to quit walking 5 million hitters
http://www.baycityball.com
ok. So now hit me with the bad news.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
You forgot to mention..
Barry Zito.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
The Horror … The Horror …The Horror.
Now I feel It must be after 5pm some place.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Cain Command....
I look forward to the day when Cain doesn’t walk more than 2 batters in a start.
I trust he will turn it around. When Cain has command of his pitches he is one of the most dominating guys in baseball (obvious, I know!).
by Squire_Boone on May 1, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Pleasant surprises
- “Skates” Lewis has been a godsend. His OB numbers are off the charts and he looks like he is learning how to steal bases.
- While a few of his throws are less than perfect Rowand leads by example and is a gamer.
- Burriss > Bocock. Bocock should be in Norwich.
- Little V is quite raw and needs to play everyday which could be happen either in SF or Fresno. If he has the attitude you suspect then his mentor Roberto Kelly should help with this.
- Baserunning blunders are not to be expected. That is what you learn in little league, pony lague, instrux and minors. By the time they hit The Show they should be well schooled.
- Randy Winn to the Indians.
- Viva El Guapo.
- .500 here we come! Pitching, pitching and more pitching.
Yes yes yes
I’d like to compare last year’s bull W-L record in April to this year’s. I don’t think “improved” is the appropriate adjective. I’d use something like “dominating” or “practically un-beatable”.
While Fred Lewis is currently my favorite Giant, the bullpen IS the reason we are only 3 games under.
Bases loaded, one out and ${VETERAN_GIANT} hits a $#^&*@# grounder to 2nd!!!!
by toofruss on May 1, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Randy Winnn....Trade!
I second Randy Winn to the Indians. The Giants should be able to pry Andy Marte from them since the Indians seem to be at a loss as what to do with the guy.
Plus, Marte has GOT to be better than Jose Castillo. At least Marte has a decent track record.
by Squire_Boone on May 1, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
24 57 3 8 2 1 0 4 7 13 0 1 . 227 .211 140
Andy Marte’s big league totals. Smells like JR Phillips to me (sorry JR)
Marte's Totals...
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG
101 291 26 57 21 2 6 35 0 1 23 62 .196 .258 .344
Those are his MLB career totals. I know they are not very impressive, but at 24 the guy still has more upside than Jose Castillo ever will. Plus, like I said, he has a much better track record in the minors than Castillo does.
Furthermore, he hasn’t really been given much of a fair shot by the Indians in the past couple years. The Indians just have not handled him very well. If the Giants acquire him they should put him at 3B and let him know that he is gonna play no matter what (which is the approach they are taking with Castillo, to a degree).
I think Marte is young enough and showed enough promise when he was younger to be given a shot. I am not saying that he would turn into this year’s Carlos Pena. I am just saying the Giants don’t have much to lose.
Kind of agree
But I would hope Winn would bring back a little more. I don’t have a problem giving Marte a shot.
Sorry about those totals, they were through 2007, and didn’t include his efforts this year.
YOU SONOFA...
Oh, you apologized… Well, apology accepted! (Seriously, I will beat this dead horse to death)
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Except you don’t see pitchers with pickoff moves like these in the minors. This is the very first year, at the MLB level, that the Giants have used the running game. It is not surprising that there are going to be some screw ups. I think it is realistic to expect great improvement in the second half. Still, I am not sure what you do about the play where Velez was picked off 2 nights ago when he lunged for the bag and his feet just pushed loose infield dirt, taking all of the power out of his lunge, and he landed halfway to the bag.. I am not sure that is his ‘fault,’ or is a correctable ‘mistake.’
El Guapo
is who? I missed it.
Notgardo, I still love you -- but you're grounded. No Guitar Hero for a month, no Cheez-Its for two months, and NO BASEBALL! This hurts me as much as it hurts you.
by tk on May 1, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
We would also accept “the bee’s knees.”
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 2, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Per Wikipedia Bengie Molina went by El Guapo in his youth in PR.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 2, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Is going from a CF/LF of Roberts/Bonds last year to Rowand/Lewis this year an upgrade?
I think it is when you consider that Bonds would only play through the 6th or 7th inning in a lot of games.
It is also helpful that Lewis is benefiting from the consistent playing time and Rowand is so very much better than Roberts.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
As Goofus's HR point goes, though
In April last season Bonds/Roberts combined for 8 HRs. That’s twice as many as 4.
I agree that thusfar Lewis/Rowand has been better than Bonds/Roberts, though. However, I attribute that in large part to Roberts being terrible and Lewis being much much better than he’s capable of continuing to be.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 1, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
On the Contrary
HR’s is irelevant. How many runs did Bonds/Roberts produce vs. Lewis/Rowand?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
First
I was wrong about the total Roberts had 1 HR last April, so the total between the two was 9. Whoops.
Second: R/RBI for both in April
Bonds/Roberts 2007: 29/20
Lewis/Rowand 2008: 25/21
Pretty close, actually, but Bonds/Roberts still winn. Also, it’s messy. I should probably have used something like “runs created,” but I’m not sure how to find that monthly stats, so I used the quick and dirty.
And HR’s are not irrelevent.
But to go even farther:
HR/R/RBI
Bonds April 2007: 8/17/17
Rowand April 2008: 2/8/14
Lewis April 2008: 2/17/7
Roberts April 2007: 1/12/3
Again, I must reiterate the messyness of using RBI and R here, but I’m only trying to draw a rough sketch so they’ll mostly do.
The point is if the two combinations are really only close because Roberts was so bad, not because Bonds and all his HRs weren’t worth it.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 1, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
If you add HR, aren’t you just simply double counting some of the R/RBI.
Also, my point about Lewis/Rowand was not just offense. They combine for much much much better defense than Bonds/Roberts. Bonds would have never got to the ball Lewis caught yesterday; that’s an example of taking a run away from the other team, which is just as valauble.
firstly, as Groug pointed out, Bonds missed a lot of playing time, which left Bochy with few options.
Secondly, Rowand can play more than Roberts, regardless of the pitcher. (Roberts’ numbers have always cried out of a platoon partner.)
Turdly, Rowand + Lewsi is cheaper than Roberts and Lewis. (Yes, I know Roberts is a sunk cost right now.)
Finally, Bonds and Roberts were not going to be part of the next good Giants team. Lewis and Rowand most certainly could be a big part of the next good Giants team.
Would Bonds bat be a welcome presence in the lineup? Yes. Would I like to see him in there at the expense of what we got cookin’ in LF/CF right now? No. I think the Giants may have lucked into Lewis Wally Pippin Roberts, but the right thing is happening.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Well
Oh boy, here I go again.
I mean, I’m NOT trying to keep Bonds on this pedestal. I agree wholeheartedly that he doesn’t belong on the team this year, and I said above and I maintain that Rowand/Lewis is BETTER than Bonds/Roberts. I’m trying not to be misread here. The problem I have is when people use things like this to say that Bonds and Home Runs totally sucked total ass, man.
To conceptually simplify what I’m trying to get at, let’s say Bonds was a 3.5 on a scale of 1-5, because despite his massive hitting, his defense left something to be desired and he didn’t play all the time. Let’s say Roberts was a 2 because he didn’t hit and his defense was just average. Now let’s say Lewis is a 3 and Rowand is a 4.
Bonds + Roberts = 5.5 out of 10, and Lewis/Rowand = 7 out of 10.
Conclusion: Bonds is shit?
No way, I call BS on that. And I will always call BS on that. By the same token, Cain sucks because Cain+Zito =/= Lincecum+Sanchez.
To be fair to you, Goofus, I know for a fact that is not what you were doing. You were looking at the outfield as a whole, you were looking at the state of the team this year, you were looking at what works best going forward. You were not building a logical fallacy that Bonds was terrible last season because he combines with one player worse than two other players combine.
I also know that when you say Rowand/Lewis have combined for 4 HRs and Bonds/Roberts have none, you were making a joke. My original response to that was supposed to be more facetious than anything else.
But as with many things Bonds, I’m still kind of sensitive about the way Giants fans have turned on him since last year, and I will overreact to things like Fairweather’s response to mine, which is innocent enough on its own.
But yes, Bonds makes no sense on the team this year. The outfield IS better this year, for all the reasons you list above. I’m not trying to contradict that point. Just, when looking at Bonds/Roberts vs. Lewis/Rowand, most people are going to attribute most of the different to being minus Bonds, when the “minus Roberts” actually has more to do with it.
I mean, Bonds/Roberts vs. Lewis/Roberts vs. Rowand/Roberts vs. Bonds/Rowand vs. Lewis/Bonds vs. Lewis/Rowand? From a STRICTLY PRODUCTIVE point of view, the 3 Roberts combinations are the bottom 3 of all those combinations. And, I’d be willing to bet that a Bonds combination woud lead the bunch. Doesn’t mean we should actually HAVE him, because we should not, but let’s not overestimate the effect of “not having Bonds” on the outfield being better this year.
-
And now I’ve officially wildly overreacted about Bonds for the first time in months. I have to go to meeting this weekend and admit to a relapse, for crying out loud. My sponsor is not going to be happy about this.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 1, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
It was mostly
Just “blah blah blah” anyway. Don’t worry about it.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 1, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
No one is disagreeing with you
I am a huge Bonds fan, and if he were on this team we would probably have a winning record. Shit, part of me thinks that with him this team might even contend this year.
But that is besides the point. Rowand/Lewis is better than Bonds/Roberts because Roberts sucks. Bonds/Rowand or Bonds/Lewis is better than Rowand/Lewis. Bonds was and still is an offensive force.
Counting HR + RBI + R is just counting runs scored as a result of HR twice. R + RBi is a somewhat crude but useful approximation of runs generated.
That gives you Bonds/Roberts 49 runs (almost all Bonds) and Lewis/Rowand 46 runs. That is essentially equal. On the defensive side of the glove, I can think of 4-5 plays that the Lewis/Rowand pair directly prevented runs that the Bonds/Roberts pair wouldn’t have had a chance on. Lewis/Rowand is clearly an improvement in the present as well as the future.
If you wanted to build the best OF from this mess, you would go Bonds/Rowand/Lewis and come up with 80 runs created, which is nearly as many as the entire giants lineup in April this year :)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
It's really not that good, does not take into consideration moving the runner or extending the inning, which is worth something.
And I just realized that it actually needs to be RBI + Runs – HR or else you end up over-valuing the HR.
So that actually makes the lews/rowand OF better.
Lewis/Rowand = 42 runs generated.
Bonds/Roberts = 40 runs generated.
Case Closed?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Not until you remove Roberts
lewis/rowand vs Bonds/no one
try that?
by positiveuphemism on May 1, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Case closed?
RBI + Runs – HR is one of the worst ways I’ve ever seen to calculate offensive production, and not just because it “does not take into consideration moving the runner or extending the inning”.
In 2002, when, I’m sure you’ll agree, Bonds was the best hitter in the league by far, he had a RBI + Runs – HR of 181.
Derek Jeter, who hit .297/.373/.421 that year, also had RBI + Runs – HR of 181. Bernie Williams had 185. Nomar Garciaparra had 197.
But Bonds was slow and only played in 141 games….How about this:
Ichiro Suzuki: 154.
David freakin’ Eckstein: 162.
Ichiro had better AVG, OBP and SLG, is a much faster player, and played in more games, yet he still had a lower RBI+R-HR.
Will you promise me to never use that stat again?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
I'm not promising you shit.
I didn’t say anything about offensive production, I said runs created.
Runs + RBI – HR very simply measures runs created. I did not claim it did anything more than that. It’s not an all encompassing #, just like any other statistical #. It is however mildly useful for a back of the envelope comparison, which is what I did.
Jesus.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 2, 2008 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem with runs and RBI is that they measure results, which are thoroughly circumstantial. What we’re interested in is ability.
I know you’re just doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but there are plenty of sophisticated “total” stats (rc/27, EQA, batting runs, etc.) you can find all over the Internet, so I don’t see any reason to bother with the cruder measurements.
Because I'm here, and that's how I felt like expressing my point
Feel free to utlize some other tools to do so. I would like to see the results.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 2, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Bonds would have to drop off pretty far to generate less runs than Winn...
Winn = 19 runs generated to Bonds 26.
Hmm, not that far I guess. Interesting…. Current OF is 61 runs.
Rowand/Lewis/Bonds is 68.
Probably worth 1-2 W’s thusfar tho.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Only if you take the “transcendant one” out of the lineup. Seven runs does not make a difference when a pitcher gives up 8 :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
Well, hence the small sample size
7 runs, selectively used, could have the giants duking it out w/ the diamondbacks most likely ;)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
The D’Backs have scored (ytd) 5.9 runs per game and allowed 3.9
The Giants (ytd) have scored 3.2 runs per game and allowed 4.5
Zito has allowed 24 ER over six games, or 6 ER per game :-(
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
Well yes, clearly
replace Zito with league-average pitching and we have probably 3 more wins
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I will also add in
That there are some major problems w/ this analysis, because w/ bonds batting behind fred lewis his RBI totals would likely be much higher.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting to note
That our OF has generated 35% of the runs this season – that makes me wonder where the shit the other 65% is coming from? Bengie? lol
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Bonds/Rowand/Lewis
Left to Right.
Works for me.
by positiveuphemism on May 1, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I’ve learned my lesson about making a serious post.
I’ll never do it again.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
Nah
I just FAILed at being facetious, and then it blew up on everybody, in the form of me blowing up. But that’s what happens when you’re born with a detonator in your butt.
I can’t sit down.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 1, 2008 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
...
I hate to say I never thought of that… I can’t believe I perfected sleeping standing up for nothing….
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on May 2, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Bonds last year put up 99 RC, 10.2/game. That’s very, very good. His defense was bad. Probably -10 runs. Fred Lewis’ defense is not great either, just because he makes one diving catch.
Fred Lewis RC 8.8/game. worse than Bonds, and he’s playing outragously out of his mind. I sincerely doubt he will hit .337/.419/.533 this year.
I am not going to argue that Rowand or Lewis > Roberts.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
I used the diving catch yesterday as an example, but I’ve seen Lewis make mutiple plays that I beleive Bonds wouldn’t have. Do I have an exact count? No, but I everyone of those catches was as valauble as another base hit. I wasn’t implying that Lewis is a great defender, but let’s face it, replacement level defense would be an upgrade over BLB’s.
Also, I don’t beleive Lewis will keep up his current hitting, that’s why I tempered it in the original post by look at his career line. 2008 only makes up 35% of that line, so it’s more realistic, but perhaps still high. My point was that at 260 ABs, the sample size is getting bigger and the evidence is getting stronger that Lewis is the real deal. Putting up a 122 OPS+ in your first 260 MLB ABs is nothing to sneeze at.
My whole point originally was that while no one short of an Arod or Pujols could replace Bonds, Lewis has done a much better job than I expected. That coupled with Rowand’s vast superiority over Roberts, makes them a combined net lift and a big reason why the team is exceeding expectations.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Why no love
for calling Pujoles A-Pu? I would think the Kwickey Mart endorsements would flow like Squishiees.
Poo-holes is better IMO.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on May 2, 2008 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I didn't realize you considered me a friend.
I’m honored!
Proud pappa of....STEVE HOLM!!
by UnleashTheGore on May 2, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
No one is trying to argue that Lewis is more effective than Bonds.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
But if the point is that Dave Roberts sucks, then why even bother?
If a Lewis/Rowand/Winn OF is decent, wouldn’t a Bonds/Winn/Lewis one – or shall I dream here – Bonds/Rowand/Lewis be even better? Oh, I see you made that point… I guess a little circumspect.
I am just pissed that the Giants didn’t let Bonds finish his career on his terms.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
Really? They catered to Bonds for a decade and a half, what should the Giants’ have done, let him play as long as he wanted? I really dont’ understand what you would have the Giants’ do in this case.
Let's not go there...
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Err, did you miss the part
where he was the best hitter in MLB, where his contract was a bargain for the Giants?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Didn't miss it
watched it and was in awe. Still don’t agree about the bargin part, but I think we’ve had that discussion before. Bonds was, by far, the greatest hittier I’ve ever seen or expect to see. That does not change the fact that he’s going to be 44 this year, has lost most of his mobility and speed, and quite frankly can’t be expected to put up the numbers he did last season. I loved watching the guy play, but it’s time to move on.
(stepping off soap box to look for beer tent)
I understand being pissed, but can’t say I blame the team for calling it a game after 2007. To continue to let Barry do everything “on his terms” would have been counter-productive in the efforts to field the “next good Giants team”.
I enjoyed watching Bonds, but was ready to move on.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
Counterproductive to WHAT?. This is a team that is running out ZERO major league players in the infield. ZERO. None of them are going to part of the next good Giants team either.
Bonds, at 43 had the best OPS in the majors. That’s THE BEST. Not, “still had some game” – the best hitter per plate appearance.
Can he field? No. Neither can Velez. Neither can Castillo. Frankly, Lewis and Roberts suck pretty bad too.
Can he play every day? No – but last I checked we have about 14 4th OFs on the 25 man roster. I think we could find some PT for them.
Can he run? Not really. Neither can Molina, and Bonds draws a huge number of walks and hits HRs – neither of which require much runner.
In fact, if the Giants would have somehow fielded a competitive team without Bonds – I think your argument would be better – since they are going to battle it out for 4th place anyway, why not let the guy rack up more HRs?
And don’t even start about the money – this team has a 90M payroll, and the only half decent players make the major league minimum (other than Rowand).
The guy is the best player in ML history. He deserves to set the tone of his own retirement. If he was unable to contribute, I would let him go.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
This team would score more runs with bonds batting cleanup
No doubt. I wouldn’t have a problem with that scenario, either.
But that’s not really the point. I would have liked to see Bonds play out this season and finish as a Giant – but politics and Bud Selig got involved. Gay.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 2, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
With all due respect
“He deserves to set the tone of his own retirement.” is pure BS. He does not deserve to set the tone of his retierment any more than you or I. Yes, he was a great player, but he was very well compensated for that. He’s 43 years old, will turn 44 this season. He did have the higest OPS in baseball, but didn’t have enough AB’s to qualify for the batting title. By trotting him out to LF whenever he pleases, you’re taking another roster spot from Fred Lewis, or not signing Rowand, or DFA’ing Durham (okay, that would be a good outcome). If this team is going nowhere, which we all think it is, why trot him out there? The Giants’ owe Bonds nothing at this stage of his career, just as he owes the Giants’ nothing. They’ve both made a ton of $$, had a wildly productive relationship, but it’s past time to move on. I understand why the resigned him last year, but I wanted to see them move on then. He’s dominated the entire orgainization with both this talent, and his attitude for 15 years, and it’s time to move on.
If he was that desireable a player, don’t you think he would have a job by now? He is one of the top 5 players in MLB history, but he is now a liability for many reasons. I hope he catches on with the Tigers, or Yankees, or somewhere he can DH, hit some HR’s, and go to the playoffs. I don’t want to see him try to play LF here anymore. It was a great ride, but it’s over. Good luck Barry, we’ll see you in 5 years for the dedication of your statue outside the ballpark, and your new position as Special Advisor to the Owner.
1) My comments are based on the fact that he would be an asset to the team this year. The rebuilding stuff is pure nonsense. How does playing Velez or Castillo or Aurillia or Durham or Roberts or Winn or Ortmier or for that matter, Molina or Winn – helping the Giants in the future. All of these guys are has-beens or never-will-bes.
2) They didn’t even offer him a contract. No one in baseball did. That’s suspecious, and possibly in violation of MLBPA labor agreements (if they colluded and agreed to not offer him)
3) It’s called dignity and loyalty.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
Guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. I think the Giants’ showed thier loyality by paying more money than anyone else did. I don’t think Barry would’ve ever taken a lower salry to stay here. Just my opinion. Bonds the player would be an asset, but the circus he brings with him may not have been. Like it or not, he dominates a clubhouse and team like no other.
He does not deserve to set the tone of his retierment any more than you or I.
Wha? This is an odd thing to say. Bitter about your 401 and ROTH IRA?
Adopted papa of a bouncing new waiver wire 27 year old. Castillo hits doubles.
Right now, yes! However, if my company says I need to retire or they will fire me, I don’t have the right to hang around because of my years of service. Sorry to sound like an ass, but when the boss says no more, I don’t have much recourse. Neither does Barry as a former employee of the San Francisco Giants.
Stupid stock market.
Counterproductive to finding out if we have any major leaguers in the outfield
The infield could not be more irrelevant to this discussion.
Also, the Giants don’t owe Barry Bonds anything. What they owed him: the money they were contractually obligated to pay. And they did / will (in the case of the deferred payments).
Unless he learns to play third (like Nate Schierholtz Amirite STOP IT), there is no place for Bonds on this team. We need to see what Lewis can do over a full season. We need to see if Ortmeier / Bowker / Schierholtz are ready to play. Bonds would absolutely hurt that.
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
Actually, Tim Kawakami is
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/05/breaking-news-kouzmanoff-better-than.html
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.
If Bonds was still here, I don’t think they would have spent the money on Aaron Rowand. The Opening Day lineup would have had Roberts, Winn and Bonds. That would have been an outfield that provided absolutely no hope for the future. You could even make the case that with Bonds needing a caddy and defensive replacement late in games, Rajai Davis would still be here and playing much more often than Freddie Lewis.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
Yeah, but don’t blame the idiot contracts given to Winn and Roberts on Bonds!
Since our opening day lineup was Roberts, Winn and Rowand, basically what you are saying is “Rowand gives us hope for the future”.
Do you honestly think Rowand is going to be better in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 than he is this year? How is this “hope for the future”?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
Rowand is a solid player, who will have the bat to move to a corner spot if his defense isn’t acceptable in three years.
By the time 2010, 2011 etc roll around, $12 million will probably be the going rate for a league average veteren outfielder.
Rowand’s bat isnt’ acceptable for a corner OF in the major leagues NOW.
I am not saying Rowand was a terrible acquisition – but in no way would I call him “hope for the future”
And if $12M is the going rate for a league average vet… then we can just get one then. Getting someone for “the going” rate is not a sucess! It’s a mediocrity!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
How the hell do you come to that conclusions?
League average for RF in the NL this year is .273, LF is .263
How does Rowand not have that now?
Anyone know where I can find league average OPS by position?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 2, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Just add SLG and OBP for your OPS by position.
This year in the NL, average OPS for the LF and RF position.
LF – .790
RF – .806
That looks a little low, it’s probably better to use 2007 numbers for the positions since it’s a much larger sample size.
2007 OPS by Position
LF – .836
RF – .786
Rowand has a career OPS of .807 playing a good bit of his time in some heavy hitters parks (Philly and Chicago). I think he might be a little stretched in the corner and I can see Zenbitz’s point, a good portion of his value is tied to his ability to stay in CF.
http://www.baycityball.com
Withdrawn.
I like this page: although it’s old school
He has a .296 eqa this year and .294 last year, signfiicantly above average LF/RF. I think I said at the time of acquistion – if keeps his BA. about .300 he’s solid.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
No mulligans
I still think they lose 100.
Much more watchable team than I originally thought, though. Considering I have tickets to another 25+ games, that is encouraging.
I’m with you. I can’t see them losing 100 with the pitching staff they have, especially since they will no longer send Barry Zito out there every fith day for the automatic loss.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
Who do you think we’ve got to send out that isn’t an automatic loss? And that’s now for spots 4 AND 5. The idea that Pat Misch could be an average starter in the majors is one that has always alluded me (same for Hennessy or anyone at Fresno). And with our offense even an average starter is likely to result in a loss.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
I’m pretty pleased that they are at least interesting/watchable/sometimes even fun.
I dint think it would be like that…
I don't expect it to continue
But I hope it will. I do worry that the bullpen is playing over their heads. Somehow, I don’t have the same worry about Fast Freddie.
Re: Zito, I actually like the ESPN idea, above, assuming that he can’t work out the problems.
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
I think the bullpen re-grouped after blowing that game for Cain. They all took that one personally and it seems since then they’re on a mission. Even if they come back down to earth, we should get more production from Winn, and Burriss/Vizquel that what we got from Bocock.
In addition, Aurilia and Durham now looking better than useless gives Bochy some options off the bench.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
I am not sold on the ‘pen playing over their head theory.
Just like I will not say they are really this good tell they face a team for a 3rd or 4th series and are still closing the deal. At this point it is equally possible they ( as a group) is just beginning to find their stride as they are playing over their head. Upside – its not just in Oakland anymore.
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
Agreed.
It’s just as valid to say they are playing over there head as it is to say they are playing right at their level. We don’t have a good way to guage other than the peripherials, and a lot of the peripherials look pretty good.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Walks by the Bullpen?
Total Bullpen WHIP is 1.45 – not amazing.
The “regulars” of Wilson, Valdez, Walker, Taschner and Chulk (IE the only guys you will see when it matters) WHIP Is 1.15
I’ll take that.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I bet if you remove Hennessey’s numbers, the bullpen ERA plunges, and if you remove Wilson’s walks, the bullpen WHIP plunges. Yes, that is cherry picking, but Valdez, Walker, Taschner and (smaller sample size) Chulk have really been lights out. Maybe they’re playing over their heads, but you couldn’t ask for much more from those guys.
Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.
You are correct
Wilson can be forgiven for his walks however. It does not seem to affect his effectiveness.
How’s that for an effect/affect demonstration? :)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
ahh my eyes/ears/whatever!
That just looks wrong at least :)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I expected between ~75 wins
at the start of the season. I still expect ~75 wins.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
My prediction
was 76-86. At this point that may be achievable.
I will have to agree with JP. These guys may not be world beaters, but they are much more fun to watch than I expected.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .
A lot more fun to watch that the Warriors
right now, anyway. Not a lot going on there.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on May 1, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Team speed can be fun to watch, and the Lincecum/Cain twosome was always going to be fun, but Dirty has broght a lot to the pary.
Apparently, he didn’t bring a “t” to the pary. Maybe he didn’t know it was a t party.
2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!
I think I'm doing this wrong
“P-A-R-Y. T? Because I gotta!”
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
And how do you plan to get the Garden Statue from left field in from first to score these runs? Molina?
" Their still Shitty" - Major Leagues the movie.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain. Currently enjoying it more then usual.
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