Looking at Tim Lincecum's 2007 Season with PITCHf/x

by xanthan on Apr 8, 2008 8:14 PM PDT Comment 45 comments

Hi, all.

I just posted my latest PITCHf/x article online (albeit a little later than I wanted to, damn you real life responsibilities!) on Tim Lincecum. This is my 4th article on the Giants starters using PITCHf/x. So far I've done Zito, Cain, and Lowry.

You can find the article, here.

As usual, comments and criticism are not only welcomed, but encouraged.

Thanks for checking it out.

I'll be working on the Correia article next and then maybe do a final roundup.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

5 recs | Comment 45 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

As usual, awesome article. My favorite part is definitely the Top 5 Pitches by Strike Swining %. I'd like to see the numbers for guys like Santana, Peavy, Bedard, Hamels, etc. for comparison.

by marcello on Apr 8, 2008 11:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree completely

xanthan, you're wandering into the territory that is near the territory Bill James is in.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco?

by hairball on Apr 9, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Careful...

Old man James doesn't take kindly to trespassers.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Apr 9, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would've gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids!

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Hairball

Glad you the article.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like I forgot the word "liked" ... I really need to get more sleep.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 10, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff!

This is great stuff! Where are you finding your raw data, Xanthan?

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hi Shark

I was wondering when you'd show up ;)

I'm getting all my numbers from Josh Kalks very excellent PITCHf/x page.

You can find out more at:

http://baseball.bornbybits.com

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was looking for 2008

I was looking for 2008 data. I see that Jonathan has it on Barry Zito, Merkin Valdez and Erick Threets from the Giants but not yet other Giants pitchers. In particular I'm looking for Tim and Matt.

If you read Jonathan's article on Tim from this winter, he mentions a "reader Roger." I wonder who that strange guy was. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 10, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

IIRC

IIRC Tim is up in that same company. Even Matt Cain is well behind.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome again

Thanks for that. Makes me appreciate Tim all the more.

Anyone think the Giants' coaches look at pitch f/x to find an edge? It's certainly helped Brian Bannister (Royals) this year.

Noonan. Nooooonan!

by Giant Fan in Singapore on Apr 8, 2008 11:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

I don't think the Giants do much of ANYTHING that is pro-active.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff, xanthan!

but DID YOU KNOW that I could not register to post comments on your site?

also, DID YOU KNOW that Timmy threw a knuckler in high school? Tis true. I saw him and Cainer having a knuckleball catch session in Scottsdale, and one of Timmy's must've broke 10 inches over about 3 feet. It actually dodged Matt's glove, squirted under a fence, and hit me in the foot. Good times!

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Apr 9, 2008 8:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What happens when you try to register?

Is the pass code tripping you up? Let me know so I can try to fix it.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Captcha

Looks like it was the captcha, I disabled it so try to register again and you should be able too.

It's really a pain to have to install all the spam blocking stuff but you would be amazed at much crap comes my way.

The captcha plug-in I was using ran into some problems with the WP 2.5 update, hopefully the author can update it soon. I'll also start looking for other captcha solutions.

But for now, it's off and we'll see what that does.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, yeah

Thanks for telling me about the registration problems, I had no idea.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no worries

i tried the captcha like 5x, but it wouldn't work. i'll try again later.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Apr 9, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it looks like no matter if you were entering it right or wrong, it wasn't letting registrations go though. It's removed now so you should be fine. I'll just have to wait and see if I can find a 2.5 compatible captcha.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point!

Great point about Tim's knuckler. When his fastball dips to the speed of Barry Zito's when Tim is about 60, he can continue his major league career by throwing the knucksie.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dammit!

Firewall @ work blocks your site as "adult content"

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Apr 9, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll delete those photos of Kenshin

As soon as I get home.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 9, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think deleting would be enough

You'd probably have to dip your hard drive in holy water.

SAVE_US.RAY
Get yer Nattowear

by Natto on Apr 9, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you send a set of copies my way first?

They for... a friend.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Apr 9, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing wrong with a little man-on-man love.

What Kenshin does with Omar is his business.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Apr 9, 2008 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Xanthan..

I'm lazy and don't want to sign up at your site. Your FB speed graph intrigued me. Is the data set up so that it's easy to track or is that something you have to hand put together? I'd love to see that for all of our starters, as well as something over the entire season for pitchers to see how the speed of the fastball affects how they pitch. For example, last year, did Zito's second half more success have to deal with his velocity going up?

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Apr 10, 2008 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

All the data I used came from Gamecast (which provides you with PITCHf/x data). I hand pulled it all and plugged it into a spreadsheet, it took maybe 10-15 minutes. I'm sure that someone who's handy with writing code could write a program to pull the needed data directly from MLB and dump it into a spreadsheet, but I'm no such programmer.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 10, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok all hand data..

Yea, maybe if someone knows how to do this it'd be a great thing to see, but not requesting you to do it if it took all that haha.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Apr 10, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

great article

an outstanding contribution to something or other. thanks.

Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.

by jasomack on Apr 10, 2008 5:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff

I come as a Cards fan, seeing what's up in the opposing dugout, and this immediately caught my eye. Very nice write up with outstanding presentation. I particularly liked seeing the charts on pitch type in different situations, and versus LHB/RHB. It's something I'll be watching for in Sunday's game.

I saw Lincecum pitch against us at Busch last year, but with seats in the upper deck first base side, I had a much better view of his mechanics (crazy aggressive, almost Gibson-esque except with better balance at the end) than his stuff. He wasn't missing a lot of bats that day, but still managed to win I think. Hopefully we can put up some zeroes opposite him this time around.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 11, 2008 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks for stopping by

Something to watch for: whether or not Lincecum is "on" the whole game on Sunday, I'm sure he'll have his moments, and if you're watching, you'll be witness to a thing of beauty. When he is "on", he's probably the most dominant pitcher I've ever seen in person. I've seen some good ones, but none with the combination of movement, speed, and planting it right where you want it, that Lincecum can manage. When he's on.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Apr 11, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess he was pretty much "on"

11 Ks in six innings, and against a lineup that ranked near the top of the NL in avoiding the whiff so far this season. Just as in this analysis, he appeared to be consistently getting batters to chase pitches that were diving away, and his changeup in general sounded wicked.

However, he really threw a ton of pitches. On the Cards' broadcast, they mentioned that the gameplan was to try to work a lot of very deep counts against him, and work the bat to stay alive at the plate rather than trying to drive the ball, and it appeared to work pretty well. Even though he mowed down the Cards with pitches 96-110 in the sixth, giving the youngster that kind of workload this early in the season seems almost Dusty-esque.

We'll likely see him again in our park this weekend. It'll be interesting to see if we can do anything more off of him the second time around.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 13, 2008 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll offer both a compliment and a criticism: Great piece of writing for a dickwad. :-)

Xanthan, it would be really interesting to see how things differ for him in the windup vs. the stretch. Are there numbers out there to crunch? It seemed like most of his bad innings last year were when he was inthe stretch.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 11, 2008 12:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

His wildness seems to come in bunches

Which may have given that impression. I remember seeing the deer in the headlights face more when he was in the stretch, but that's probably true for many. Sharksrog might have more to say about that.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Apr 11, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

Sharksrog will simply say any perceived weakness in Lincecum's game is obviously a weakness in my understanding of the game and make me say five "Hail Tims". :-)

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 11, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could be done

But it would be a pain in the ass. I'd have to go through every game and differentiate between the stretch and the windup. That's way beyond my scope right now.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 11, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A pitcher giving up more runs in the stretch than the windup?!?!

I've never heard of such a thing!

If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?

by groug on Apr 11, 2008 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, not looking at the numbers I'm sure it would almost have to be the stretch just because a runner is already on base.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 12, 2008 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year Lincecum gave up 60 earned runs with runners on, and only 5 with the bases empty. The only way a pitcher can give up a run out of the windup is a solo HR, so I'm sure every pitcher in the history of baseball has given up more runs out of the stretch than the windup.

But that doesn't make Goofus' question pointless. Last year, Lincecum was a better pitcher out of the windup:

OPS against: Windup - .619.
Stretch - .752.

BB%: Windup - 9.3%.
Stretch - 12.1%.

K%: Windup - 25.4% (wow).
Stretch - 22.6% (still wow).

You deserve to be struck out, when your first name's a verb.

by Cookyman on Apr 12, 2008 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly what I was wondering! Thanks!

Are those differences typical?

And c'mon groug, I'm not that much of a stats retard! :-P

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 12, 2008 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know, but Cain and Zito have similar splits

Cain's :

OPS against: Windup - .631.
Stretch - .712.

BB%: Windup - 9.2%.
Stretch - 11.8%

K%: Windup - 21.7%.
Stretch - 18.2%.

Zito :

OPS against: Windup - .658.
Stretch - .722.

BB%: Windup - 8.9%.
Stretch - 9.8%.

K%: Windup - 18.3%.
Stretch - 17%

You deserve to be struck out, when your first name's a verb.

by Cookyman on Apr 12, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Goofus, you of all people should know

Always go for the joke.

If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?

by groug on Apr 12, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comedy is not pretty...and neither am I.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 12, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more thing, I thought the desired differentiation between fastball and change-up is 12 MPH. Is Lincecum's 10 MPH good enough or would it be even better if he could shave a few off the change up.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 11, 2008 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Better

Maybe, but whatever he's doing right now with the changeup, it's pretty damn successful. Schmidt had an awesome changeup that was really effective for him and I think the separation was less than 10mph. In my opinion the ability to "sell the changeup" is just as important, if not more, than the pure speed differential.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 11, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scmidt #'s

For the sake of argument, I looked up Schmidt's velocity for 2005-2006 on the fastball and change.

2005
Fastball - 91.8mph
Change - 85.6mph
Difference - 6.2mph

2006
Fastball - 92.4mph
Change - 87.5
Difference - 4.9mph

In my opinion, what made Schmidt's changeup so good was that he did an extremely good job of selling it (same arm action, same arm slot, not tipping it off to the batter by altering his motion). In these two years the two pitches are pretty close when it comes to speed.

Of course, we don't have Schmidt's Strikes Swinging % for these years, so we can't really know if he was getting a 20+% swing through rate like Lincecum is, but the changeup did become Schmidts weapon of choice while in SF.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Apr 11, 2008 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs