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My Theory on Barry Zito

Let's take a look at the symptoms of Barry Zito:

  1. 4-5 mph off his fastball from last year to this year
  2. Inability to hit the strike zone with any pitch
  3. Arm slot out of wack, front side flying open
  4. A seemingly healthy arm unable to top 84-85 MPH at the age of 29
Now keeping this all in mind, the "workhorse" Barry Zito has thrown 200+ innings in 6 of the last 7 seasons, while averaging 218 IP a season starting from the age of 23.  In his 22 year old season he threw 92 IP.  The very next year he jumped up to 214 IP, and stayed there ever since, not missing a start for 7 seasons.
My big bad theory is Dead Arm Syndrome.  Put simply, the wearing away of the muscles of the rotator cuff, and a partial or even full tear of the labrum (rim of cartilage that holds the upper joint in the shoulder) which causes the condition known as Dead Arm Syndrome in which a pitcher loses miles off their fastball, arm slot gets thrown out of wack, and very often a pitcher doesn't know about it until an MRI is taken, as all they feel is a lack of "zip" in their delivery.  
Mark Prior threw his first 200+ IP season at the age of 22, and we all know how his career turned out.  While Zito hasn't had exactly the same amount of problems Prior has had, one can think that all those innings without missing a single start would begin to wear away at the arm of even the most durable pitcher.  I say get this guy an freakin' MRI before he tears something and needs surgery.  Just my two cents. 

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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hes had to have had an MRI already in last 6 months

they were rumors about undisclosed arm ailments for Zito last winter

by slojoe on Apr 29, 2008 6:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I really, really hope that they would have detected a torn labrum by now. But as Grant said in his post today, Zito being injured already is kind of a best case scenario, and so I almost hope you’re right…

Merkin Valdez career SO/9: 10.0

by Poe on Apr 29, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

the A’s couldn’t diagnose Bobby Crosby’s broken back a couple of years ago. There could very well be a tear or a strain somewhere in his arm to balance out the one in his head.

by tyrannoman on Apr 30, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Something has to be up

I just can’t think of very many other probably explanations for a guy in his natural physical prime losing that much velocity on his fastball without exhibiting visible mechanical changes…

Because if it’s not mechanical, then it HAS to be physical. You just don’t “worry” your way out of 5mph….

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Apr 29, 2008 6:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If it's an injury, it's likely an old one.
“1. 4-5 mph off his fastball from last year to this year”

It hasn’t been quite that sudden. These are Fan Graphs’ numbers for Zito’s fastball velocity the last 3 years—

2005: 87.3 mph
2006: 85.8 mph
2007: 84.5 mph

He dropped 1.5 mph from ‘05 to ‘06, and 1.3 mph from ‘06 to ‘07, so being at 82-84 mph this year puts him right on schedule, unfortunately.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Apr 29, 2008 6:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

This “dropoff” is not sudden, nor is it a great order of magnitude in his time as a Giant. His fastball was pretty Lowryesque last year too, but I think his control was better and occasionally he got strikes on his eephus curve, which isn’t happening this year or he’s been shelled so bad so early the umps haven’t really shown what they’re doing with it.

by natteringnabob on Apr 29, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great, by the end of the contract his fastball will be in the mid 70s.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Apr 30, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can't wait to see his changeup!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Apr 30, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In a fluke of pitching physics, if his fastball drops to 75, his change up is still 80!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Apr 30, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And he develops a new, unhittable pitch

which he bowls across the plate and under the strikezone

by Moggeee on Apr 30, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Barry Zito

the rich man’s, left handed Dan Quiesenberry!

by tyrannoman on Apr 30, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zito

Even at this speed, it wouldn’t be a fiasco if he had more control and movement. Our hope for Zito should become the new Jamey Moyer. Moyer blossomed in his 30’s without a real fast ball. He has to learn to pitch. What I’ve been wondering is whether there are other examples of relatively soft tossing lefties who were very successful early and then flopped at around age 30. No one comes to mind. Usually it’s the flamethrowers who burn out early.

by NearestNorwich on Apr 29, 2008 8:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Barry Zito: Unsafe At Any Speed

*with apologies to Ralph Nader

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Apr 30, 2008 6:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

My Theory on Barry Zito

Is that he sucks.

If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?

by groug on Apr 30, 2008 11:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm skeptical about this

Do you have any evidence supporting this?

SAVE_US.RAY
Get yer Nattowear

by Natto on Apr 30, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good enough?

If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?

by groug on Apr 30, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Intriguing

but I think this bit of footage provides proof for the contrary: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW7q0JzWaoY

SAVE_US.RAY
Get yer Nattowear

by Natto on Apr 30, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DAMINT ZITO

Let's bring the...

by Swager on Apr 30, 2008 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Good point about Barry’s heavy innings and the possibility of a dead arm. Do you think the Giants realized when they signed Barry that aside from Livan Hernandez, he had thrown more pitches than any other major league pitcher in the six years before joining the Giants? Do you think they cared if they DID know?

At the time the Giants signed Barry, here were the factors that should have been considered, beginning with the positive side:

. Still young (28)

. Never missed a start.

. A move to the NL usually improves a pitcher’s ERA.

. Cy Young Award winner

. Innings eater

Then:

. Declining peripherals

. Poor Septembers the past two seasons, perhaps pointing to a tiring arm.

. Second-most pitches thrown over the past six years.

. Actually pitched slightly better against AL teams than NL teams during the months of interleague play.

. Only a 55-46 record over the previous four years after going a resounding 47-17 in his first two and a half seasons. (Barry’s rookie year was only half a season.)

. A 4.05 ERA over the past three seasons after a sparkling 3.12 ERA in his first three and a half years.

Yes, it’s easy to make these points with 20/20 hindsight and a badly-struggling Barry Zito. But these are the points the Giants should have been examining at the time of the signing—and the points I made on another Giants board immediately after the signing.

You could ask rxmeister, who posts here frequently. He backed the signing of Barry, while I decried it.

By the way, the two Giants’ signings I was most adamently against prior to the Giants’ signing Barry were those of Neifi Perez and Jose Vizcaino, both of whom were released by the Giants before their contracts were complete.

My question is, if I can see it in advance, why can’t the Giants? Hey, I’m not right all the time, either. But should a fool such as me, a layman who doesn’t get laid (Sorry, couldn’t resist.) be right more often than a paid professional? And if so, why is that professional being paid—and worse, rehired?

by sharksrog on Apr 30, 2008 11:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Are you mocking Gwen Knapp>!? Because she said NO ONE could have predicted Zito’s downfall!

Seriously, I think only solution is for you and me to buy the Giants, and make ourselves GMs. I can probably kick 10-20 Grand. Anyone got $799,980,000??

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Apr 30, 2008 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do indeed

but I spent my last $799M on “convenience fees” for my $9 tickets to last night’s game.

by natteringnabob on Apr 30, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember when Tomko saw that sports psychologist and magically became decent? Zito should track that guy down. The psychologist, not Tomko.

SAVE_US.RAY
Get yer Nattowear

by Natto on May 1, 2008 12:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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