Sabean > Beane
One of my favorite things about baseball season is the writing at Fire Joe Morgan. This one did not dissapoint. BTW, this is my first Fanpost on the new site and I'm having a little difficulty figuring it out. Hope this works. Sabean > Beane
And it appears there needs to be at least 75 words which I think is a little silly. So this should get me to that point so I can publish this post. Done and done.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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77 comments
Comments
Just....who....what the.... huh?
The PD story is simply baffling, and the FJM dismantling of it is brilliant.
How does that Cohn cat still have a job?
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.
by delorean on Apr 17, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It is a mystery, Delorean.
Ever since Lowell Cohn put Fluffy in front of the keyboard, she has been coughing up furballs like this one.
Still, I maintain that Cohn’s cat is more readable than Lowell himself.
by Moggeee on Apr 17, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great article
I love any acerbic, pointed, zingy slams of any of the Useless Old Irrelevant HACKS (in order of hackness): bruce jenkins on any topic but tennis, glenn dickey on any topic but football, lowell cohn.
DFA all Giants over 34 years old.
by Mayor of 311 on Apr 17, 2008 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Egad, Lowell, that was BRILLIANT!
I notice, however, that Cohn seems to have conveniently left out that one minor detail of trading Accardo for Hillenbrand. A veeeery interesting omission! I mean, he builds such a solid case for why Sabean is so much better than Billy Beane, and the A for H trade would have slightly weakened his point…
Obviously, Cohn isn’t telling the whole story.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 17, 2008 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder...
Lowell Cohn is so brilliant, not even the smart guys at FJM figured out his deep subtle irony. Deadpan. Straight-faced. If his column isn’t ironic, I will have to assume his brain has been eaten by syphilis and/or the kind of moths that chew holes in your sweaters.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on Apr 17, 2008 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey!
No picking on Bocock!
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Apr 17, 2008 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
FYI...
...if you just have a link to share, you can do it as a “FanShot” and not have to pad it out to 75 words.
2008: My previous assessment may have been overly optimistic.
by EliminateMe on Apr 17, 2008 10:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
nepotism, meh...
like slapclown son, like slapclown father
by Headhunter Rollins on Apr 17, 2008 12:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the second FJM link I’ve seen, and I’m already tired of them from just those two links. I’m sorry, but this style of replying to posts went out-of-date in message forums everywhere in 2002, except by the most annoying people….and they usually do it to try and counter points with logic. To do it as an article? This seems like the journalistic equivalent of the guys who do Scary/Epic/Superhero movie.
I mean, for every minor detail that the pro-Sabean guy left out (Accardo for Hillenbrand), there’s another one that supports his case (like Watson for Snow). And it’s not like Beane has a spotless record, either. Most of the players he built his original playoff run on were not his acquisitions, they were by Alderson, and he’s made some stupid trades too (Bradley for Ethier? Oops.).
I’d love to see an intelligent debate on this subject, looking at the facts. From what I’ve read on FJM recently….um, I wouldn’t trust them to do that.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 17, 2008 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
On the one hand, you're right
That format is a “journalistic” cheap shot.
But on the other hand, I read the Cohn piece before I read the FJM piece, and I couldn’t help but notice how he was undermining his own premise at every turn. I had to go back to the top of the article and make sure that he was, in fact, claiming that Sabean was better than Beane. (Crazy on its face, and Cohn stacks up strike after strike against Sabean in direct oppositionh to his stated premise.) It’s a truly shitty piece of journalism, and the FJM thing, while cheap and annoying, is still satisfying to me on some level.
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.
by delorean on Apr 17, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FJM = brilliant. There NEEDS to be a widely read forum like this to disspell widely-held assumptions that are WRONG, yet constently celebrated by dumbass sportswriters all over the nation.
I love my Giants. I don’t hate the A’s, but I don’t love them either. Anyone who cannot see that Sabean is an awful GM, and most assuredly inferior to Beane in just about every aspect of talent evaluation, is probably a little biased….
by AndOnTheDrums... on Apr 17, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sorry, but this style of replying to posts went out-of-date in message forums everywhere in 2002,
No it didn’t.
except by the most annoying people
Oh snap!!!
2008: My previous assessment may have been overly optimistic.
by EliminateMe on Apr 17, 2008 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't disagree more
You’re right that this type of writing could be (and usually is) horrible but the guys at FJM are amazing at what they do. And you’re comment about debating using facts is pretty much what they do. They take these writers from the most widely read papers in the world to task for spouting off old baseball cliches instead of using actual facts. The method that which they do it is juvenile, no doubt, but also hilarious (to me at least).
by AngelWillSaveUs on Apr 17, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting to see a real stack up of merits and demerits for both sides. To me, the original article was so poorly written the guy ended up not even trying to support his own premise. Instead, he says Sabean is smarter at the beginning of the article, tells everyone all about the majority of awful decisions he’s made, then says he supports Sabean, but he has to prove himself now. At no point does he even bother to state WHY he thinks Sabean is better than Beane.
But you’d have to look at more than just the trade history of Sabean and Beane to get the full story.
- Farm system – How are their farm systems ranked? How have the players pulled from the minors fared for each team in question? Of the drafts that each GM has overseen, who has had more impact players arrive, and do how much for each team?
- Free agent acquisitions – How have the free agents signed fared? Did they play to expectations, exceed expectations, or fall short? Were they bought low, or overpaid?
- Trades – at the time of the trade, what was the perceived value? Was it a fair trade at the time? Afterwards, how did it work out? What was the long-term impact of the trade?
- Recent history versus years ago – Did early success inflate the track record of the GM, or have they been more consistent?
The real problem with most journalists is that they have to dumb everything down too much. Things are never so cut and dry that you can do a one-for-one comparison and come away with a fair evaluation. So the real question would be, whose body of work stacks up better. A dumbed down argument would be the Giants have made it to the World Series, the A’s can’t make it out of the Divisional Playoff round. The A’s have produced more players from their farm system that have had success at the major league level, be it for their team or another team, but the Giants might have more talent at the lower levels of their minor league system than the A’s do. They’ve been able to compete with large market clubs consistently since Beane took over, the Giants haven’t been good since 2003, and most Giants fans weren’t enamored of the talent on the team THAT year. Beane’s typically been able to bring onboard talent at a lower cost (like Frank Thomas), the Giants have overspent on guys like Dave Roberts. The A’s have made trades that don’t necessarily look good on paper (see Mulder, Mark) but have worked out well (yes, they’ve had their own misses), while the Giants haven’t made a trade that anyone’s thought worked out particularly well for us since… Ellis Burks? Am I missing one?
It’s a pretty complex formula that should really be used to compare a GM, or to even find an indicator of his own success. But at the end of the day, you can kick any tire you want… But if your team is bad for a few years and your farm system has gotten to the point where barren isn’t accurate enough, you might just be up for the Dave Littlefield Incompetent GM Award.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 17, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burks trade was 98
I think the Schmidt trade in 2001 was the last unqualified success (among significant trades).
Looking through the transactions at BR, it’s kinda depressing how many of the trades have been for short-term, non-impact players (and a few Loftons and Galarragas who made an impact despite being short-term). But that’s probably true of the bulk of trades for any team.
2008: My previous assessment may have been overly optimistic.
by EliminateMe on Apr 17, 2008 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bulk, yes, all... Probably not...
Looking at the unqualified successes, you’ve got Snow, Kent, Schmidt, and Burks…Those are good, but the last great trade for an impact player was 2001. And both the Schmidt and Kent trades were for undervalued players. Most of the trades since then have been for known commodities that don’t have a whole lot of upside, especially not for the long term.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 17, 2008 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would the Winn trade not be a success?
We got an outfielder, who for all the bashing, would be a starting outfielder on most teams in the majors and has been fairly productive.
We gave up a pitcher who has already come back to us as a free agent without him doing much of anything for the other team, and a backup catcher who blossomed only after leaving said team.
Winn is no Schmidt, Bonds, or Alex Rodriguez, but we got a productive player for very little. That’s got to be a success.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 17, 2008 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading for Winn, fine good
Signing him to a 3 year deal at market price for an avg corner outfielder or a slightly above average center fielder is OK. Signing another average CF the following year to a 3 year deal and then yet another average CF to a 5 year deal each successive year is just awful.
by iamawesomer on Apr 17, 2008 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the Roberts signing is awful.
I’d disagree about Rowand. He was not at a bad price, and I believe he is easily an above-average center fielder.
I’m not defending every move Sabean made….but I’m sure as hell going to defend him against people who are blindly saying everything he’s done since Burks was crap.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 18, 2008 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rowand deal in a vacuum was not terrible. However, he is a “high average” hitter, injury prone, and coming off of a great year. I don’t think we overpaid. The problem is – we just didn’t need a CF. Winn can play center. We have passles of mediocre OFs to fill in. We needed a good hitting 1B and 3B. Now we are stuck trying to convert passle of mediocre outfielders into barely passible 1Bs…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Apr 18, 2008 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
Winn can play CF everyday. He just does not have the skills. A big part of my personal frustation with Winn is that he is soooo average. He has a little pop, an okay arm, good speed (but can’t steal bases at all), and plays average defense in the corner OF spots. I dunno, can Randy play first?
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure that the 'results' would be a dumbed down argument.
Isn’t the point getting to the Series and winning it?
It’s not like the Giants’ World Series appearance in a fluke. From 2000-2003, the Giants were legitimate World Series contenders 3 of the 4 years, including one appearance in the series, one year where the team was the #1 seed in the NL, and another where the team was one game off from being the top team in the league.
Sabean went with a different philosophy for winning, which was building around Bonds and winning now. In doing that, he was successful short of winning the series. While Beane has also been successful in what he has done, I don’t think that one should dismiss the job Sabean did, or say that Beane was clearly head and shoulders better.
After all both teams are expected to be basement dwellers this year. Just because Beane decided to tank a season or three on purpose doesn’t make it better. And if the Haren trade doesn’t work out, I’d say it’s worse.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 17, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the point is getting to the series and winnning it,
Brian Cashman, best GM in baseball?
Or maybe we should look deeper?
As for the Haren trade, you are overestimating just how good Haren is. Over his career, he gives up quite a bit of unearned runs, so his ERA is deceptive. Haren is very good, but he was never in the Santana, Webb, Smoltz, Sabathia class of pitchers.
His primary value was in his bargain contract, Which will expire in 2 years. At which point, the A’s would have lost him.
If anything, it is the Swisher trade that is more likely to result in a worse situation.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not saying winning is everything, but just the same, it shouldn’t be tossed aside as a ‘dumbed down’ argument.
Bargain contracts are only a good thing if you use that money intelligently elsewhere. So, to that end, what has Beane done in free agency? Shannon Stewart? Mike Piazza? And the Haren trade did result in a lot of players, but they are a lot of players with questions and concerns.
I agree the Swisher trade is a horrible move. People defend it by saying the team got the White Sox top three prospects, but that’s a damned shallow system. Sweeney in particular is one of those guys with a ton of potential that people love for some reason, but who I never see living up to it. Gonzalez remains wild, and feels like a Jonathan Sanchez in terms of risk-reward at best, if that. De Los Santos has a long ways to go.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 18, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're missing my point with Haren
My point with Haren is that a BIG part of Haren’s value is that he was on a bargain contract, which is why he was traded. If he was being paid $12M-$15M a year, his trade value, and value to the A’s, goes down significantly. He’s good, but not as good Santana, Webb, Smoltz. His bargain contract has 3 years left on it. After which, he’s going to get a big contract. He was coming off a career year ERA wise. If he goes back to putting up the ERA he did in 2006, his value drops significantly. And coming off a big year, there was no way he would sign an extension that did not pay him a lot.
The A’s paid Shannon Stewart $2.7M for one year.. That’s not really a problem unless you’re the Marlins. Shannon Stewart, Dave Roberts, there’s nothing wrong with players like that. The problem is when you pay the player $18M / 3. The problem is when the $18M you are paying that player compels you to play him, over better choices. The A’s paid Stewart $2.7M, and let him walk after he had a solidly mediocre year, 101 OPS+ in 630 PA with so-so defense and no baserunning value, and were hoping that they would get a pick. The Blue Jays got around giving a B pick by not signing him to an FA MLB contract, instead signing him to a minor league deal and then purchasing his contract . $2.7M for a solidly mediocre season and a chance of a B pick is an acceptable price.
Piazza was certainly a mistake.Quite a few A’s fans on Athletics Nation, and writers on Baseball Prospectus like Christina Kahrl, were criticising the deal, or at least expressing scepticism, at the time. No one is claiming that Beane does not make mistakes.
I’m not saying that the Swisher trade is a horrible move. Just that the Haren trade is better. Swisher at the time of the trade was on a bargain contract for 5 more years, Haren 3 more years.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brute, I want to first say that I absolutely respect your opinions, and love a lot of what you post on this site.
When I say the dumbed down argument would be, yadda yadda yadda, I wasn’t saying that winning only was the dumbed down argument. I was saying all of the things I’d listed were part of the dumbed down argument (I actually meant to take “dumbed down” out before I posted, but forgot). My point was that you have to look at the entire body of work, and I was listing out dumbed down points without a lot of analysis behind them. They were simply quick hits. With regard to making the Series versus only the Divisional Playoffs, what I was getting at is that we’ve been to the Series with Sabes as GM, the A’s haven’t, and that’s a point in favor of the Giants. BUT, the counter-point is that the A’s have made the playoffs more often since 2000. This one is a point where the merits of both sides can be argued endlessly.
But I definitely agree with rfloh that you can’t only look at the success of the minor leagues, you have to look at everything including free agent acquisitions and trades. I also agree that I forgot to include Randy Winn in the positive trade column, not because I don’t like him, but because I didn’t remember him off the top of my head. So my original post, the point I was making was that you can’t look exclusively at one aspect of how a GM runs a team and say that’s the only thing that matters, you have to look at an entire body of work, and really look objectively, otherwise you can’t make a fair comparison.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 18, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll give up fewer unearned runs
now that he’s got a much better defense behind him
"I was tied to a chair and he had a baseball bat. Pissing him off was the smart thing to do."
by DbacksSkins on Apr 18, 2008 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean went with a different philosophy for winning, which was building around Bonds and winning now. In doing that, he was successful short of winning the series. While Beane has also been successful in what he has done, I don’t think that one should dismiss the job Sabean did, or say that Beane was clearly head and shoulders better.
But this is a false dichotomy perpitratated by the Giants management and echoed by the MSM. “Win now” is not a philosophy for building teams – it’s a a tactic. It’s not that Sabeans’ the tactic is flawed, it’s the execution. The moves he made to win now – were bad. He consistantly aquired over-the-hill vets, generally overpaid for them, and actually didn’t do any better than you would expect (given that he was spotted the best player ever).
You could argue that he was successful WHEN the pitching prospects he traded didn’t pan out – but looks what happens when the prospects HIT (insert horse beating names here).
But the dichotomy is false because there is no reason why the Giants couldn’t keep developing the farm system for 2006 on WHILE they were trying to win now!
The Giants have had plenty of revenue since the new stadium opened. Forbes just ranked them 8th most valuable frachise in MLB. Sabean just squandered the resources because he has no idea how to score runs without overpaying for the Aaron Rowands of the world.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Apr 18, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While it’s true the Giants’ have a lot of revenue, they also end up paying out a lot. Between the ballpark cost (I know, I’m tired of hearing that too) and the sum they pay out in revenue sharing, a boatload of cash flows from the coffers every year.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They still have a top 10 payroll (>$90M/year). So they are basically paying $1.28M/win this year.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Apr 18, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 18, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve actually thought about this a lot – I hate my job and spend much time drinking water and peeing and cursing Sabean – and I’ve finally come to the conclusion that Sabean is a loose-aggressive Hold ‘Em player. He plays the game crazy, never giving in, making deals because he feels like he needs to make deals, and I think he just lucked into six years of great cards. All those trades from 1996 to 2002 were spectacular. Everything since has been awful. Still, his method hasn’t changed. I don’t think he’s lost something; I think he was just getting really lucky. And, for the past five years, he’s been stone cold.
Ask anybody who’s played a lot of poker, though, and loose-aggressive players are a terror. Some nights they get on a streak and kill you.
Proud member of the Adopt-a-Giant program (Aaron Rowand)
by antinous on Apr 17, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t really see the LAGG analogy – but I do see the similarity in poker players who have a hot start doing something – and are unable to change once they realize that they were just lucky or that the market adjusted to them.
I really don’t see how you can ascribe the miraculous success of Kent and Schmidt to anything but luck. Snow wasn’t even good – he just happened to have a good – not great – year when he was first aquired. Burks was always a good player when he wasn’t injured.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Apr 18, 2008 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the exact same thing as both of you with the poker analogies.
Sabean’s definitely that jackass that sees everyone else raising, doesn’t exactly know why but sees them come away with monster pots and tries to do the same thing himself. Only he doesn’t know when to do it. The first few times, he gets lucky, because he gets that miracle card on fourth street or the guy folds out of fear that he’s about to be had anyway. So he continues this ridiculous baseless logic and finally he catches cold cards, keeps up the same aggressive behavior, and finally gets burned for it. I totally see it.
And Beane, by the way, is totally that old dude in the corner with that massive stack of chips. He comes in every day at the same time, observes all the other guys with their dicks flopped on the table, laughs, and vacuums up the money.
I'll take the freight train, Bengie Molina.
by Brother Bummer on Apr 21, 2008 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zito and Mulder
were drafted by Beane. And even Hudson was drafted a few months before Alderson was replaced by Beane, when Beane was assistant GM.
And no one is claiming that Beane has a spotless record. You’re using strawman arguments here. No GM has a spotless record of any kind.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And you’re not using strawman arguments by brushing off Hudson, who was an Alderson acquisition, as a psuedo-Beane argument?
The first half of the playoff run by the A’s were as much on the backs of Jason Giambi, Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada as they were Zito and Mulder.
But look deeper…since the Zito and Mulder drafts, really, how many big name players has he drafted? There’s Jeremy Bonderman in 2001, whom he traded away in perhaps his worst trade of his career. 2002 saw Swisher. 2003 resulted in exactly two major leaguers, and one was wasted in a bad trade (Ethier). Not until 2004, when he got Street and Suzuki, did he start doing well.
For all that Beane gets praised by some, if you look at the stories and opinions about these trades, some are blaming Beane for letting the A’s farm system get so barren that necessitated their mini-fire sale to start over.
Now the A’s focus will return to where it should be - drafting and developing talent from its own minor-league system, which has been sorely depleted as Beane has mortgaged prospects for the major league product.
Link
Beane chose the latter, saying the health issues on his roster convinced him the A’s would have a tough time contending in 2008. That, coupled with the opportunity to acquire six players he thinks can help replenish a barren farm system, led him to pull the trigger.
Link
No matter the praise or complaints or the methods, both Beane and Sabean ended overall winning runs in the same place: having to rebuild the teams’ barren farm system from nearly scratch.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Apr 18, 2008 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No matter the praise or complaints or the methods, both Beane and Sabean ended overall winning runs in the same place: having to rebuild the teams’ barren farm system from nearly scratch.
True. The only difference is that Sabean’s payroll was around 80m$ and Beane’s was around 40m$.
You deserve to be struck out, when your first name's a verb.
by Cookyman on Apr 18, 2008 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane’s payroll wa about $65 mill over the past few seasons, and the Giants’ were paying Bonds’ $20 mil per. Not that he wasn’t worth it, mind you. Well, not th e$16 mil last season…or the $8 mil he’s cashing in this year…why did Jerry Coangelo have to start this deferred money crap? More than any other factor (including the Yankees), I think that has driven player salries. Now he dosen’t even own the team.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bonds for 20$ a year was a huge bargain.
Let’s say the difference between the two GM’s payrolls was 20m dollars. You could say that they had the same payroll and reached similar results, only Sabean also had the greatest hitter of the last 50 years for free.
You deserve to be struck out, when your first name's a verb.
by Cookyman on Apr 18, 2008 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ummm
no, not a huge bargin. Market rate, and not a penny less. Don’t get me wrong, Bonds was the greatest hitter any of us will ever see, but the last 4 seasons he didn’t play any defense at all, and his range decreased even further after his knee problems in 2005.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re forgetting about how much money he brought in.
You deserve to be struck out, when your first name's a verb.
by Cookyman on Apr 18, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, I’m not. He was paid in accordance with his skills. I agree that he was worth every penny, but he wasn’t a bargin.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta go with Cookyman on this one
the difference between Bonds 01-04 and a mere all star like Sheffield or Guerrero was greater than the difference between Sheff or Guerrero and a AAA scrub.
Bonds’ late career surge was unprecidented and unique in baseball history, chemical friends notwithstanding. It gave an illusion of competence to Sabean that has now been stripped away, leaving Sabean’s gift to us of an offence that is on track to be one of the worst in the modern era : http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=baker/080417&sportCat=mlb
by SnowLeopard on Apr 18, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re right, but he was paid a lot more $$ than Sheff or Vlad, or anyone else not named Man-Ram or A-Rod. Those two happen to be the only other hitters approaching his dominence, they just happened to play in the boring league.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think that no one
was close to Bonds 01-04.
I’m too lazy to look it up, but, I feel certain that [Salary / (win share or VORP)], Bonds number 01-04 would be way lower than many many other players, stars and otherwise.
Again – I assert that it created an illusion of competence for an otherwise long-ago fired Sabean.
by SnowLeopard on Apr 18, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You may as well
include the year 2000 in Barry’s UPP (Unreal Production Period).
He was merely terrific that season in leading probably the best Giants team of the last 14 years to the postseason.
by Moggeee on Apr 21, 2008 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB is NOT the NFL
MLB has NO salary cap. With NO salary cap, and with the rate of inflation in MLB player salaries, over the long term annually between 8-11%, deferred money is generally good idea.
In MLB $10M in 2000 is worth FAR more than $10M in 2008. Look at what $10M a year will sign you in 2007-2008. It would not even have gotten you Carlos Silva. Nor GIl Meche. Nor Jeff Suppan. Look at what $10M would have bought you 10 year ago. Or 5 years ago.
Also, the money you are not paying the player today can be invested.
For example, $25M of Ichiro Suzuki’s $90M contract will only be paid to him beginning the year after his retirement. The final cent of that contract is due 2032. Unless Hiroshi Yamauchi, Mariners owner, belongs to the keep all the money under mattress school of thought, all that money can be either invested or spent on other players.
And of course in 10 years time, 15 years time, $25M is going to be worth less than it is today.
Same thing with the Mets and Johan Santana.
Deferred money is a good thing for MLB teams.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have a good point
It just galls me to see players being paid $5-10 mil well after their playing days are done. That may not buy a Gil Meche, but it might be a nice down payment on Pedro Alverez.
I’m quite aware there is no salry cap, and I don’t ever want to see one in MLB. It drives me batty to see teams cut productive players every year in the NFL because of cap reasons.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well the thing is this:
$10M 5-10 years from now will be worth less, much less, than $10M today, with the rate of MLB inflation.
$5M-$10M might buy you a Pedro Alvarez now, it won’t buy you a Pedro Alvarez 10 years from now. That is why the Mariners are better off paying Ichiro $10M 10 years from now, instead of paying Ichiro that $10M today.
My point with the salary cap is that in the absence of one, deferred money is generally a good thing. With a salary cap, “dead” money is obviously a bad thing. With no salary cap, “dead” money is not an issue, not unless you have been hiding that money under a mattress.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t think the temptation to defer salry has artificially inflated player salries? using Randy Johnson agian, there is no way the D-Backs could’ve signed him when they did, except for the defered money. If he falls to the next bidder, then his contract is reduced.
I do see your point, however.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at the growth in MLB revenues
Even Bud Selig, has been going around crowing about how much money MLB is making. MLB is not just making money off ticket sales, or even TV or even merchandise sales. How many of us here are giving money to MLB via MLBAM, ie MLB.tv? MLB had $6B in revenues. Values of teams are increasing every year.
A whole bunch of teams are starting or have RSNs, the Yanks with YES, the RS with NESN, the Mets with SNY, the Orioles with MASN. The BJs are owned by Rogers. The Giants own how much of CSN? 30%? These are just the ones I’m aware of. And none of the value of this TV relationships are included in the team valuations.
As for Johnson, you could make this argument for everything really. I mean if the Giants had not built Phone Booth, surely they would have less money to spend? Maybe they don’t sign Bonds after 2001 without the Phone Booth? So Bonds goes to the next guy, his contract is reduced.
Maybe the Mets don’t sign Johan Santana if they don’t have SNY, their sports network, just started up, and the new stadium coming up. The Twins trade him to another team willing to pay less, and his contract is reduced.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not brushing off Hudson
I’m saying that it is likely that the GM in waiting, who would be appointed a few months later, is likely to have a pretty big say in who the team is going to be drafting.
But even if I’m brushing off Hudson, that’s still not a strawman argument. A strawman argument, is where you set up a position that no one is advocating, and then attack that position. For example, this “And it’s not like Beane has a spotless record, either” IS a strawman argument.
The A’s playoff run began in 2000. By 2001, Mulder and Zito were both pitching more than 200 IP each. Zito, 125 ERA+ 214 IP. Mulder, 126 ERA+ in 229 IP. The only year in the A’s playoff run in which Zito and Mulder played less roles was in 2000. Even then, Zito still pitched 92 innings of 172 ERA+ ball in 14 starts.
And Kevin Appier and Gil Heredia, both of whom were as good as Hudson in 2000, were Beane pickups.
Cory Lidle, who was as good as Hudson / Mulder / Zito in 2001 was a Beane pickup. In 2002, he was still a good, valuable starter, 111 ERA+ in 192 IP.
And does the only the first half of the playoff run count? This is your original assertion “Most of the players he built his original playoff run on were not his acquisitions, they were by Alderson,”
Alderson acquired Hudson, Giambi, Chavez, Tejada. Chavez was signed to a new extension after 2003, so Alderson does not get all the credit for Chavez’ production with the A’s.
Beane acuired Mulder, Zito, Ellis, Swisher, Haren, Blanton.
“But look deeper…since the Zito and Mulder drafts, really, how many big name players has he drafted? There’s Jeremy Bonderman in 2001, whom he traded away in perhaps his worst trade of his career.”
So, they did not draft big name players because they are a good team drafting lower in the draft? Whereas when they were a bad team, they drafted higher in the draft? What’s your point?
Secondly, that’s not the worst trade of his career. Not EVEN CLOSE. I suggest you follow the A’s more closely if you want to criticise Beane. The A’s WOULD NOT have been better off keeping Bonderman. Too date, Bonderman is still only a league average innings eater. And is already costing the Tigers $8.5M, and then $25M over the 2 years after this. A prospect that takes such a very long time to develope has no use to the A’s. Trading Bonderman for Ted Lilly was a GOOD TRADE, despite the whining and moaning from the prospect lovers. They got an OK starting pitcher ready to help a contending MLB team by giving up a 20 year old who has ended up being an OK starting pitcher further down in the future, who is being paid market value for his services.
The point with prospects is NOT to hoard them and develope them, much as prospect watchers would like to believe. The point with prospects is find ways to use them to help the team win. Whether that means having them become MLB players on the team OR trading them away for MLB player. A home grown player is no better than a player developed by another team, if they cost the same.
It was trading Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty that was monumentally stupid.
And why are you only focusing on drafts? Drafting and developing prospects is important, they’re not the end all of baseball, much as prospect watchers want to believe.
Regardless of how he obtained Mark Ellis, Mark Ellis is still an A’s player. A decent hitter, an outstanding defensive 2b. Just because the A’s did not develope Mark Ellis does not mean that Beane does not get credit for Ellis. He turned Angel Berroa into Ellis, and has had Ellis at far below market rates for his service.
Regardless of how he got Cory Lidle, Cory Lidle played a key role on 2 playoff teams.Regardless of how he got Chad Gaudin, Chad Gaudin is on the team. Regardless of how he got Frank Thomas, they don’t make the playoffs in 2006 without Frank Thomas. Regardless of how he got Jack Cust, Jack Cust is on the team. Regardless of how he got Daric Barton, Daric Barton is on the team.
And I’m not sure why you are linking those articles you are linking. What’s your point? That the A’s have issues and had issues? Yeah. So? No one is claiming that Beane is perfect and that the A’s have no issues. Again, strawman.
Now the A’s focus will return to where it should be – drafting and developing talent from its own minor-league system, which has been sorely depleted as Beane has mortgaged prospects for the major league product.
Beane has “mortgaged” prospects for the major league product? Like whom? Andre Ethier? He’s the only prospect who was mortgaged for major league product, where you can argue that he could have done what the major league product did. That’s it.
But this is also from one of the articles you linked,
Remember the MarkMcGwire trade? Fans shrieked. It was the end of the world as they knew it. Remember when Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder were shipped away? Those deals appeared to signal several summers of discontent.
OK, there was some suffering for it.
But the A’s came out OK at the other end—nine straight winning seasons before last year’s injury-riddled crash. The regeneration philosophy has served the organization well. In truth, it is the only way it can compete with the big boys, and nobody knows that better than Beane.
Also, the problem with the drafting and the farm has been that Beane has been a cheapskate. If you truly want real criticism and analysis of Beane, without axe grinding, and do not want to follow the team, try reading Athletics Nation. The posters there at least know what they’re talking about when they criticise Beane. For example this is hardly fanboyish, but is at the very least from someone who seriously follows the team, and did some research, instead of arguing against strawmen and regurgitating anti moneyball mantra that Beane got lucky on Alderson’s players:
Billy Beane has been a penny-pinching fool and his lack of foresight wrecked the farm system. He methodically engineered the crisis that compelled him to trade two of his best players for prospects in an attempt to revitalize a franchise that only a year ago was poised to become the dominant entity in a split market. Beane foolishly threw away this golden opportunity because he seemed to forget one of the most basic rules of sports… talent wins. The cold, hard truth is talent costs money and Beane turned his back on two crucial sources for acquiring amateur talent under the guise of frugality or stupidity, take your pick. The result is the Oakland A’s team you see today, a rebuild project expected to take 2-3 years if all goes right.
emphasis mine. It is a really long post which Beane haters should read. It at least will provide them with accurate information to use against Beane, instead of the old usual, tired, and wrong information that is often regurgitated.
“No matter the praise or complaints or the methods, both Beane and Sabean ended overall winning runs in the same place: having to rebuild the teams’ barren farm system from nearly scratch.”
So, in your opinion, Brian Cashman is the best GM in baseball, John Schuerholtz is a poor and overrated GM? Because you seem to totally and completely ignore context.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me
that what may be said is that almost every team that does not have monster revenue (Yankees, Red Sox) end up going through cycles. The Braves are a huge exception, but every other team I can think of has at least one two year rebuild when their talent ages.
I’m not sure I agree about your theory that only poor teams can get good talent, however. Chase Utley, for example, was drafted in the third round of the draft. I do think that player devolpment in baseball is more of a crapshoot than any other sport. Last year we all knew that Kevin Durant will be a great NBA player, but as good as the Padres thought he would be, Matt Bush just couldn’t make it as a SS. I know this is only one example, but scouting baseball players is one of the toughest jobs in sports.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look I am not saying that ONLY
bad teams can get good talent. NO. That is NOT what I’m saying.
I am saying that draft position does matter when drafting players. That the higher a team drafts, assuming that it is not pulling a Pirates style collect revenue sharing checks business plan, the more likely a team is to get good players. More likely. That is all. Obviously other factors matter too, like the willingness of a team to pay.
And it is not my theory. I did not come up with it. Just citing a player proves nothing. People, BPro, and also others, have done multiple studies on multiple years of drafts, instead of just citing one player.
Kevin Durant is not an MLB player.
Consider why Matt Bush was drafted by the Padres? He wasn’t some hotshot prospect that every team was drooling after. Did the Padres think he was good, or that he was cheap? Same thing with Daniel Moskos.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Easy there, pard
I know Durant plays basketball, which is why I put him in the NBA. I’m not making a sweeping study, just trying to point out that player evaluation in MLB is a tough, tough business.
If that’s not what you’re saying, I did not intrerpet your post correctly, and I could not agree more with your views on how farm systems are used. Your Mark Ellis example is a perfect illustration.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm coming off as hostile to anyone here,
I apologise.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
between you and me
sometimes I come off like an asshole. I know, shocking, but true.
Seriously, though, what did you mean by Durant? Did I not explain myself very well there?
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I was saying with Durant is that
the NBA is a different environment.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Apr 18, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotcha. I was tyring to use him as an example of how different the scouting enviorments are.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thing of it is
drafting players is half the battle … actually developing them is the other half.
Giants hitting prospects have uniformly fizzled and failed in the development machine that Sabean has built and presided over. Todd Linden, Jason Ellison, Lance Niekro, Tony Torcato, Carlos Valderrama, Calvin Murray, Damon Minor, Travis Ishikawa, Felipe Crespo, Trey Lunsford, Armando Rios, Bobby Estalella, etc etc – all had promise, and none of them came close to fulfilling on it. Yes Happy Pete, Yorvit, Ramon Martinez, and Marvin Bernard all made became real major leaguers, but I find myself wondering if they might have been better hitters if they had come through the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Boston, Florida, or Minnesota systems. It does seem that the only way that the Sabean Giants have been able to get any sort of hitting results out of anyone is to get someone who already knows how to hit – a major leaguer like Bonds or Kent, or a polished minor leaguer like Aurilia.
Honestly, it’s why I have little confidence that Bowker, Fransden, Schierholtz, even Villanova will amount to much – our minor league hitting “instructors”, Sabean hires all, don’t seem to know what they are doing.
And this is a big plus for Beane, in my opinion. Giambi, Tejada, Swisher, Chavez – all hit 30 homers in the bigs, DaBarton KuSuzuki TBuck look like they’re ready to contribute this season and in the future … even Todd Fucking Linden is OPSing 1.064 for the River Cats.
Simply put, Beane’s empire develops hitters competently and successfully, Sabean’s empire has been the worst in the majors at this vital baseball org task for ten years. And therein lies a huge huge difference between the two.
by SnowLeopard on Apr 18, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Linden also tore up Fresno for 22 consecutive seasons. He’s a classic AAAA player.
I’m just not sure I agree with the basic premise. I don’t know how much of player devolpment can be pegged on the organizatioin. I think in most cases a player’s talent and make-up will take them as far as they will go. Minor improvements can be made, but usually guys end up playing to their abilities. You also only concentrate on hitters. The Giants’ have devolped quite a few useful pitchers on the last ten years. Not all of them have been useful for the Giants’, but they have been useful.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was the Giants’ responsibility to translate Todd Linden Fresno 2005 into Todd Linden San Francisco 2006. And Sabean’s organization failed to do so, as it has so often before.
Many players that have fizzled in the Giants system were highly thought of at the time that they were drafted. Their development curve has been unnaturally flattened in the Giants system. You look at some of the jacked up things that Sabean’s track record shows he clearly believes (a good glove is the most important thing at 1B, there isn’t much difference between 30 walks and 100 walks in a season as long as someone hits for average), and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is something weird and counterprioductive that he is having his minor league hitting instructors teach their dudes.
Some orgs seem to do great in translating minor league promise into major league results : as I said, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Boston, Florida, and Minnesota (or, really, anyone besides the Sabean Giants).
Yes I agree Sabean’s organization seems to do fine in developing pitchers.
PS from the most recent Baseball Prospectus chat:
bernard23 (NYC): Pecota has a low opinion of John Bowker despite a good season in a pitching friendly environment last year. Is there something something that Pecota is picking up that I’m missing?
Nate Silver: He’s a 24-year-old corner outfield prospect, and he’s in the San Francisco Giants system. Wearing those sorts of albatrosses around one’s neck, it takes more than ‘good’ to get PECOTA’s attention.
by SnowLeopard on Apr 18, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is odd
how different teams devlop players differently. For years, the Giants’ couldn’t find a pitcher worth a snot in thir entire system, but they had a nice crop of position players. Now, they can’t find a position player to save their ass, but have loads of pitching. Then you look at the Texas Rangers, who can’t devolp any pitching at all (and that’ been through at least 5 GM’s and 3 owners).
I do think that the Giants’ farm system is treated a little harshly by Baseball America. Keith Law from Scouts Inc rated the Giants system in his top 5 (with the cavaet that many of the players are in the low minors right now), and BA has them somewhere in the low 20’s, I think.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh hello lowell
i didnt know you were a contributor here
by sam23 on Apr 20, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean is so much better than Beane
I mean the Barry Ztio signing probably the best ever . I also heard that Sabean is looking in to signing Jamie Moyer to a 6 year 180 million dollar deal.
by Athletic on Apr 18, 2008 7:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
At least Moyer can throw harder than Zito anyways
by Athletic on Apr 18, 2008 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A) Love the avatar. Brilliant!
B) We don’t go to Taco Bell and harrass you on the job, so please don’t come to our message board and act like you can rile us all up by pretending we’re all still in love with Brian Sabean.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 18, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats not a very nice thing to say now
How do you know I dont work at Dairy Queen or Jack in the Box? What is wrong with working there?
by Athletic on Apr 18, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just a mean sombitch is all
I’m glad you have a sense of humor, by the by.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Apr 19, 2008 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All this talk of a time when Zito was good just leaves me so empty inside…:(
by WTF on Apr 18, 2008 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
take solace, he’ll be very good in the Marin slow pitch league in 2015.
by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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