Stat Search Question

by Andy from DC on Apr 16, 2008 6:12 PM PDT Comment 20 comments

Hello Fellow McCoven,

I have been trying to find the average runs scored in support of a picher per start. Unless I'm blind or misreading an abbreviation, I couldn't find it on baseball reference or baseball cube.

I've been engaged in an ongoing discussion with my father regarding the misuse of the W-L record and ERA, especially in regards to Zito. He's agreed to consider things, and has decided that runs scored in support of a pitcher might explain Zito's past success.

Any insights? Thanks,

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If

If a pitcher has a won-loss record that is better than his ERA would indicate, he almost always has received very good run support (and usually pretty good support from his bullpen, as well). If the opposite is true as in the case of Matt Cain (7-16, 3.65 ERA),he likely has received little run support and minimal bullpen support.

Kirk Rueter’s career came to an end not only because he was getting older and no longer getting as many outside pitches with the advent of the QUESTEC system, but also because the Giants stopped giving him incredible run support.

In 1999 Kirk went 15-10 despite an ERA of 5.49. In his last two seasons combined, with a more reasonable limit on his run support, he went a combined 11-18 with an ERA of 5.17.

People talk about how pitchers pitch “just well enough to win” or “just well enough to lose.” Those people are usually very misguided and have little concept of the importance of run support.

Barry Zito really didn’t win all that well after 2003, which was his last very good season. Although he posted a lucky 16-10 in 2006, fooling the inept Giants management, since 2003 he has a won-loss record of only 52-51. Prior to 2003 his career record was 61-29.

In Barry’s case, it has been more that his pitching has declined than that his run support has drifted off—although his 0-4 record this season certainly hasn’t been helped by the inept Giants hitting.

Inept management. Inept hitting. Think there is a correlation?

by sharksrog on Apr 16, 2008 6:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

BP has a great stat – “pitchers expected w/l” this not only corrects for offense, but bullpen support as well.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Apr 16, 2008 7:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Lemme lemme

“I have been trying to find the average runs scored in support of a picher per start.

For us?

Unless I’m blind or misreading an abbreviation, I couldn’t find it on baseball reference or baseball cube.

Not without an electron microscope.

Aaron "Swag" Rowand

by victor frankenstein on Apr 16, 2008 7:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

how about quality starts?

how many of them Zito got this year? huh? huh?!?!?

Adopted papa of a bouncing new waiver wire 27 year old. Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on Apr 16, 2008 7:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

One today...

Which should in of itself show how useless of a stat that is.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Apr 16, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

to this day I still believe a sports agent coined the phrase

by wilriv21 on Apr 16, 2008 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They invented holds to get relief pitchers money, why not the quality start. Both are crap.

by sfgiantsflgators on Apr 16, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zito is 0-4 because...

He is a #5 starter facing a #1 starter. Our lineup vs. #1 starters produces ZERO runs. Good pitchers shut us down. PERIOD. Zito will continue to get no run support because our lineup is not good enough, and Zito will keep losing because he isn’t good enough to shut anyone else down on his own. He will continue to give semi-quality starts, but it won’t matter because we won’t score any runs.

At least its happening to Zito and not Cain as much, although most #2 starters can completely shut us down too. I predict Lincecum + Sanchez will both have more wins than Cain and Zito this year.

by joebirdie3 on Apr 16, 2008 11:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

run support

3 runs in 22 innings: 1.22 R/9 for a 4.5 ERA or a 7.0 RA. That is indeed a recipe for 0-4 W/L.

QS is a silly stat since it can call some shitty outings “quality”. But its better than a just a W/L.

ERA is a silly stat since it depends on subjective error calls, and doesn’t really account for inherited runners, IBB and other things outside the pitchers control. But at least it suggests something about the primary quality that a pitcher should have – a low number of runs allowed.

Offensive players should be measured in their runs created. Pitchers by their run allowed. That’s what determines success after all. Other stats can help evaluate how fluky/lucky the player is. But at risk of a sounding like Madden or Joe Morgan or something “You need to score more than the other guys to win.” And for Zito (and Cain) going up against the other teams top pitchers, is not going to put them in a position to win this season. They will both have double digit loses. I wouldn’t be surprised if all the Giants starters had double digit loses this year.

Adopted papa of a bouncing new waiver wire 27 year old. Castillo hits doubles.

by kennv on Apr 17, 2008 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

early season anomaly

1s really only face other #1s early in the season. Once off days start popping up, rotations are no longer aligned and Zito won’t always face another #1 … so I don’t think this will factor in much in the long term.

by echabot on Apr 17, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

run support

I kinda feel bad for Zito only getting 3 runs in 4 starts.

...has anyone else noticed who is leading the AL in RBI’s?

by confusitron on Apr 17, 2008 11:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what is this "AL" of which you speak

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Apr 17, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

10 man softball, I believe...

by tyrannoman on Apr 18, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHIP

Lots of people think WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) is a pretty good evaluator of a starting pitcher’s performance. (Not so much for relievers, who pitch fewer innings and therefore have smaller sample sizes.) The lower the WHIP, the better the pitcher. If you allow the other team to get on base often during your start, chances are pretty good they’re going to score lots of runs, inflating your ERA and affecting W-L. It’s a cause-and-effect stat.

So, for example, despite winning 14 games last year, Lowry had a 1.55 WHIP, which is considered high. Zito actually had a 1.35 WHIP last season, which isn’t as terrible as I thought it would be. This season, it’s 1.68.

Eagerly awaiting Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night on 7/18.

by Kitspool on Apr 17, 2008 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Now that I look at his stats, Zito’s season last year was pretty similar to his ‘04 one. I doubt we’ll see a similar bounce back though.

SAVE_US.RAY
Get yer Nattowear

by Natto on Apr 17, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've often wondered about Zito's "great" seasons with the A's

specifically 2002. Was he simply the luckiest pitcher of all time? I.e., were his peripherals then roughly similar to how they are now, and he just got some great breaks to come out with a 23-5 record? Or has he legitimately lost something?

(I suspect it’s some of each. Curveball not as sharp, “fastball” significantly less fast.)

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Apr 17, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

Barry Zito’s career BABIP against is .270. Given that among Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum the best figure is .285, I doubt Barry will be able to sustain that. This season his BABIP against is .308. I suspect that is too high, meaning he will likely stop giving up hits at QUITE such a high rate, but given his falling strikeout and increasing walk totals, how in the world could anyone expect a lot from Barry?

by sharksrog on Apr 18, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, he used to strike out more guys, and allow fewer baserunners (1.4 WHIP vs 1.2 WHIP). About 0.1 of that his BB and 0.1 is hits. Didn’t bother to calcuate his HR rate. 0.1 extra hits might just be due to extra BIP due to reduced Ks.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Apr 18, 2008 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs