Fred Lewis among top breakout candidates according to WWL
by MbahABako on Mar 5, 2008 4:04 PM PST
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PrintSounds intriguing, right? It's "Insider" material, but let's see what exactly they had to say about Davis:
"Lewis doesn't have the star potential of the other players on this list, but he's the best of a mediocre lot of rookies and sophomores the Giants will give playing time this year. And he has the secondary skills to be at least an average corner outfielder.
Lewis doesn't have a single plus tool that would make him stand out as a prospect (editor's note: Ouch, that hurts), which likely has hurt his cause with San Francisco over the past few years. His best skill is his patience at the plate, running deep counts and drawing enough walks to keep his OBPs over .360 for four straight years. He has moderate power, fringy for a corner outfielder but slightly above average in center. He's an above-average runner, but neither a burner nor a plus base stealer. His best path to an everyday role is in center field, but the Giants just gave Aaron Rowand too many years and too much money to play there, leaving Lewis to fight with Dave Roberts and Randy Winn, both inferior players, for playing time in a corner. So his biggest obstacle to breaking out in 2008 isn't something he can control."
Not necessarily a ringing endorsement, is it?
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Re: Fred Lewis among top breakout candidates accor
Roberts, on the other hand, is fair game.
Re: Fred Lewis among top breakout candidates accor
Re: Fred Lewis among top breakout candidates accor
I would still prefer Lewis and Davis getting 500 ABs each than the 5 years of Warrior Spirit we signed.
I know...
Re: Fred Lewis among top breakout candidates accor
Fred Lewis
Is this the same guy who said this before, too?
Now, I mean, I like Lewis as much as the next guy, but there is a point at which reality leaves the equation. I think we have gone past that point with this thought. Randy Winn >> Fred Lewis. It's most likely not even particularly close.
I'm not saying I'd rather see Winn blocking prospects because he's better than see prospects get a chance because they COULD be better at some point, but to say that Winn is inferior to Lewis right now s absolutely ridiculously asinine.
Re: Fred Lewis
Re: Fred Lewis
Many of the baseball pundits are becoming an echo chamber and not an especially insightful one at that.
Institutional blind spot?
That hardly sound like a ringing endorsement, or being pumped up about him.
Re: Institutional blind spot?
They haven't figured out yet how to get PECOTA to spit out the prose sections of their annual and website. Soon, probably.
It's one guy: Sheehan
Until I see both Christina Kahrl, and Silver, at the least, say the same things about Lewis and Winn, I doubt that they have a blind spot on those 2 players.
Re: It's one guy: Sheehan
Re: Fred Lewis
Re: Fred Lewis
by kingofthacove on Mar 5, 2008 8:54 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
Winn's 2006 is difficult to evaluate because he was hurt for most of the season. His 2007 and 2005 were both much better (though his 2005 is also tough because of his sample sized super second half). Even then, he's been in the .770-.800 OPS range since about 2002, and he seems to consistently bat well at AT&T when he's healthy. Even if he begins to decline this year I'd personally still expect to see him in that .770-.800 range at the plate because he hasn't been healthy and below that line in so long. As his defense goes, I think Winn isn't a great CF, but I think he is an above average RF - and especially in SF's difficult RF.
Lewis's recent minor league career is actually a lot better than I thought it was. He really struggled in A and AA, but once he got into AAA at the age of 25 (a little old, but not bad) things started coming together. His OBP, even in the majors, has always been very good (I will never take that away from him), and his power actually seems to have been trending upward with age, though the sample size is still alarmingly small. His defense in RF, though, I believe is well behind Winn. We clearly differ on this thought, and I don't know where to get those fancy stats so I can't really prove either of us wrong.
But I do have to concede that it is a lot closer than I thought it was. I'm not confident that Lewis can maintain the small amount of power we've seen out of him and that might be the biggest factor, though I'm more confident about it now after seeing how his power has trended upward with age. I think he's a good bet to OBP in that .350-.370 range, which would put him right in the same zone as Winn, and possibly above. I won't give his power the benefit of the doubt because career as a whole begs that I don't, but even then he's probably in that .410-.420 SLG range, which isn't far off from Winn.
So basically I was wrong. With the bat, the two are most likely pretty darn close to a wash - barring pitchers catching up to Fred. Even so, Winn is clearly not an inferior player. At worst he's an equivalent player, and if you see the difference in their defenses the way I do (which you don't), then he is superior. Just not by much.
Nice points. I'm glad to have been driven to find some nice things about Freddie because I've been getting a little down on him and I'm really a fan.
by howtheyscored on Mar 5, 2008 9:27 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
Which is a poorly written sentence designed to mean: "...because he hasn't been below that line while he's been healthy in so long..."
by howtheyscored on Mar 5, 2008 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
Basically, for the future Giants, I'd rather have Lewis at age 28 in '09 (and under future control) than Winn at 35 for 8 million extra.
Re: Fred Lewis
Everything else in the window, I'd rather have Lewis get a shot than have Winn block him on our "rebuilding team" every day of the weak (that was originally a typo, but upon reflection I think the Giants's 7 day cycles might be better termed this way).
by howtheyscored on Mar 5, 2008 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
And over the past 3 years he has ranked 3rd overall in all of baseball. So I would say that he is an above average RF at the very least.
Re: Fred Lewis
If I were the Giants, I would attempt to have traded both Winn and Roberts at least by the trade deadline, opening up a platoon of Lewis and Rajai Davis in left and Schierholtz and Dan Ortmeier in right.
I like the idea of acquiring Dan Johnson for first base. IMO Ortmeier isn't going to come close to cutting it at the heaviest hitting position in baseball.
Re: Fred Lewis
by English Professor on Mar 6, 2008 1:04 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
Re: Fred Lewis
Allow me to translate BP speak for y'all:
Winn 2008 is roughly as good as Lewis 2008 (projected stats) - assuming they both play RF.
Lewis is basically free. Winn costs $8M/year.
Hence, Lewis >> Winn
This cost effectiveness is ingrained in BPs analysis, has been for years. So much so, that they don't even bother to be explicit about it.
Re: Fred Lewis
Job battle to track: Fred Lewis versus a whole bunch
of guys he's better than for playing time on the
outfield corners. Lewis is more or less what Randy
Winn was back when Winn was good, yet has
struggled to impress the Giants, who seem to
always find a Rajai Davis or a Dan Ortmeier or
Nate Schierholtz to block him. Maybe this is the year.
Not roughly as good as Winn is in 2008, but roughly as good as Winn was when he was good. (Yeah, I know.)
And from the annual:
...there's just no way the difference between Lewis
and Rowand was worth the investment in the veteran,
as it's not entirely clear who the better player is
between them.
This starts off looking like an evaluation of cost effectiveness, but it ends with an out-of-nowhere comparison of their raw value that just isn't borne out by their own analysis, which shows Lewis as a vastly inferior centerfielder and with a deficit of about 35 points of SLG. That doesn't seem like a lack of clarity to me.
Re: Fred Lewis
They say: "...leaving Lewis to fight with Dave Roberts and Randy Winn, both inferior players, for playing time in a corner." Or they say some variation on that theme. Like the comment directly above this one says, the comparisons being tendered do not consider cost, do not consider age, and do not consider anything beyond 2008.
They say "Lewis is better than Winn NOW." In one case, cited again directly above this comment, it says that "Lewis is exactly as good as ROWAND now."
Neither of these are true. Neither of them are defendable. And that's ALL that I'm saying. Nothing more, nothing less. The raw comparisons being repeatedly drawn between the current talent of Winn to Lewis are bad. To the naked eye, they are bad. To the discerning mind, they are bad.
Yes, the story changes if I consider cost, age, years, etc. But that's not part of this very specific argumentative equation.
by howtheyscored on Mar 6, 2008 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Fred Lewis
And can we not call them that? It's unhealthy to be that arrogant, and I don't want to enable Trey Wingo.
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