Community Projection: Eugenio Velez

by Grant on Mar 25, 2008 12:13 AM PDT Comment 37 comments

The Giants have only a handful of position players under 30 who are even remotely interesting. Five, by my count. There isn't a great prospect in the bunch; you just hope that one of the five will become something as valuable as a pre-Fenway Bill Mueller. Nate Schierholtz is the youngest of the bunch. Rajai Davis has the electric small sample from last year. Fred Lewis seems to be that weird brand of player that will put up the same stats at every level. These are players who would be afterthoughts in other organizations, but maybe one of them will turn into something more for the Giants.

Kevin Frandsen also fell into the category of "remotely interesting." True, he's almost 26, but it isn't as if he's older than most prospects because he stalled at a minor league level. He's a career .328/.393/.459 hitter in the minors -- that's not legendary, but it's nothing to dismiss completely either. But he's probably gone for the season now. Sigh. There was a big part of me that wanted to believe that Frandsen's final 70+ at-bats in 2007 were more meaningful than his previous 300. I knew it was a pipe dream. It still would have been nice to find out.

The three outfielders mentioned above are all blocked. Frandsen is injured. Eugenio Velez, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo woo woo. Velez should have a clear path to the quasi-utility role that Frandsen had last year, with a potential for more if Ray Durham disintegrates during the season:

Eugenio Velez

AVG: .278

OBP: .317

SLG: .401

HR: 4

3B:6

AB: 358

SB: 23

CS: 8

The batting average and stolen bases will inflate his perceived value by a bunch, and he'll open 2009 as the starter at second base.

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on a bad team..

..there are worse things to watch than Velez, who is @#$%! fast. Too bad he can't field an up-the-middle position or hit much. But boy, he's fast.

Too bad about Frandsen. He was never going to be a star, but now utility IF looks like upside.

by wcw on Mar 25, 2008 12:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i'm excited for velez

and bummed for the hardluck bell.

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Mar 25, 2008 3:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

mark ellis homers of dick-K

go A's!...
i gots blanton on my team

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Mar 25, 2008 3:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

bases juiced for crosby

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Mar 25, 2008 3:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

dice-k

is going to be in big trouble if he's like this against the AL East. The A's offense is a lot closer to us than the Yanquis.

was: dissertating

by non sequitur on Mar 25, 2008 4:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

dice-k looking better now

Seven straight retired. There's nothing like baseball at a quarter to five in the morning.

by non sequitur on Mar 25, 2008 4:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Street blew the save, thus starting my fantasy season off with a bang. If by bang, you mean slapping me around a lot.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Mar 25, 2008 6:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Projection

AVG: .272

OBP: .324

SLG: .428

HR: 7

3B: 9

AB: 401

SB: 47

CS: 11

Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.

by tedfordfan on Mar 25, 2008 7:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez Community Projection, I assume?

I'll play:
AVG: .277
OBP: .324
SLG: .402
HR: 2
3B:12
AB: 310
SB: 25
CS: 5

I think you're probably right about Eugenio being the incumbent 2B next Spring, sadly enough. In LyleWorld, Kevin's value is slightly ahead of Velez's (slightly better avg., more HR, fewer 3B, *much* better D) and I'd keep Frandsen at 2B. But Eugenio would be more exciting; I just wish he could play defense.

In 3-4 years it won't matter; Nick Noonan will blow them both away and ulitmately replace Chase Utley as the premiere power-hitting 2B. Ah, the future's so bright I gotta wear shades....

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Mar 25, 2008 7:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah projections

Most of these won't be too different, I'm guessing.

AVG: .272
OBP: .324
SLG: .428
HR: 6
3B: 9
AB: 403
SB: 47
CS: 11

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Mar 25, 2008 7:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey thanks for raining on my parade already, Grant. The band hasn't even stepped in the first horse turd yet.....

"Shove it, Bob." Like, seriously shove it. ~Grant

by HarshInFresno on Mar 25, 2008 7:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

.247/.291/.404
hr: 4, one inside the park
3b: 8
ab: 306
sb/cs: 30/10

by Evan on Mar 25, 2008 8:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Grumble, rumbles , "Get your dog off my lawn" time.

Man I can’t predict how many excuses the management will find to not play this guy on a regular bases. Then it will be a scattered all over. Until I see a willingness to actually remove playing time privileges from vets when they are playing like a week old beached whale the only thing I will say is Velez will play no games at P & C. How is that for optimistic?

I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain.

by daveinexile on Mar 25, 2008 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

AVG: .260
OBP: .305
SLG: .390
HR: 2
3B: 7
AB: 350
SB: 30
CS: 5

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Mar 25, 2008 8:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez

.280/.320/.440

250 at bats.
25 steals.
7 caught stealing.

by Dan from NM on Mar 25, 2008 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez

.275/.325/.400

7 HR (at least 2 inside the parkers in Triples Alley)
10 3B
400 AB
35 SB
7 CS

by joebirdie3 on Mar 25, 2008 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez

.264/.321./.398
3 HR (1-2 Inside the park)
5 3b
387 AB
32 SB
8 CS

Will lose ab's early in the year to Jose Castillo at 3B

by WilliamVanLandingham on Mar 25, 2008 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

offseason would have been even more depressing for me without Eugenio to ponder and discuss. He's extra hard to project because of the need to play Durham for the showcasing, and for the sometimes hitting. Yet he may never get traded. And Velez at third is not ideal. so...

AVE .285 OBP .350 SLG .450
HR 3
triples 7
AB only 280
SB 38
CS 10

adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson

by foothillsfan on Mar 25, 2008 10:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Is anyone else worried about Velez not getting on base all that much?

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by Anticon23 on Mar 25, 2008 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I really haven't seen Eugenio play..

All these talks of inside the park home runs...so he's really that fast? I mean, I guess if a Doug Mirabelli could get a triple in the alley that Velez could go all the way around?

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Mar 25, 2008 10:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez

I started collecting baseball cards in 1985, when I was 8 years old. I remember distinctly thinking that Vince Coleman was a God amongst men. His stolen base numbers were so amazingly good that I decided he was going to be the most awesomest baseball player of all time. At some point and time as a little older child, I decided that stolen bases were not as so awesome as I thought (Thanks Darren Lewis). As much as I I would like to see a vintage 1985 Vince Coleman like performance from Velez, I just don't think he has the ability to get on base at the same type of clip.
Avg. .248
OBP. .302
SLG. .375
SB 25
CS 8
AB: 275

by Animal Mother on Mar 25, 2008 10:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm

If you can't get on base at a Vince Coleman clip, and you can't hit for power, you shouldn't be starting. Sorry.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 26, 2008 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lots of stolen bases, triples and oohs and aahs

by wilriv21 on Mar 25, 2008 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's the real scoop

Considering the defense is going to play him like he's the eighth place hitter for their son's little league teams not an actual MLB outfit (although who can tell at this point, right?) He won't have a chance to get any real outfield hits. He'll start out real slowly and when it's all said and done there will much plattooning going on at the New-Old Pac Bell

Avg. .248
OBP. .292
SLG. .345
SB 18
CS 5
AB: 255

by Jsheared on Mar 25, 2008 2:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure why no one thinks he can hit...

He's been plunking triples off the wall at a pretty decent clip. In 14 or so at bats last year he had 5 hits, 2 of which were triples.

And he's got a HR this spring, which on this team means he is in contention for cleanup... Play him at 3b or 2b and lead him off, let's see what happens.

by FairweatherFan on Mar 25, 2008 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

14 AB's = small sample size.

And while he's had success in the Spring, I don't really pay attention to Spring Training stats, they're mostly meaningless.

His weighted mean from PECOTA is in the neighborhood of what most are projecting here: .268/.314/.402

I would love it if he could hit his 75th percentile: .282/.330/.431

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Mar 26, 2008 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize that 14 AB's and this spring is a small sample size, but the only major league level evidence we have for velez is positive. 14 Steals in ST? I know it doesn't matter... but it indicates something.

I think, if nothing else, the guy has demonstrated that he deserves a shot at an every day slot. Especially on a team that has all but 1 or 2 positions in flux.

I drafted him in the 14th round on my fantasy team :)

by FairweatherFan on Mar 26, 2008 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On this team, I agree, I think he deserves a shot. I'm just trying to temper my expectations and not expect too much.

What worries me the most about Velez is that his bad glove might keep him out of the starting lineup.

http://www.baycityball.com

by xanthan on Mar 26, 2008 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say that his performance thusfar makes me cautiously optomistic. He may wash out and not be worth crap - but at that point he wouldn't be any worse than anyone else on the team.

As far as his glove... That hurts. I'm not sure what to suggest there. One would think he would have figured that out by now...

Maybe 1b? :)

by FairweatherFan on Mar 26, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

I made it through 2008 in Baseball Mogul, and this was Eugenio's major league line for my team:

G: 78
AB: 186
AVG: .285
OBP: .332
SLG: .392
OPS: .724
HR: 0
SB: 7
CS: 3
K: 38
BB: 9

My scouts had this to say about him at year's end: "Velez's outstanding speed on the bases led him to 7 steals in 78 games. Velez has enough talent to play as a starting second baseman on some teams. Eugenio Velez would like to be on a team that's headed for the playoffs."

Considering they went 66-96 (thanks ONLY to playing 4 games over .500 in August and September), I don't think he'll be playing for that kind of team for a while...

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Mar 25, 2008 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

G: 114 (A lot of those will be as a pinch runner)
AB: 263
Avg: .257
OBP: .304
SLG: .327
HR: 3
SB: 31
CS: 9
K: 46
BB: 8

I traded Cody Ransom for Khalil Greene in my PS2 EA Sports MLB'04 game because he sucked there too.

by rock n jock on Mar 25, 2008 6:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 320ish
AVG: .260
OBP: .299
SLG: .382
HR: 7
SB: 40/50

He needs to have an impressive year, or at least be hot before the trade deadline, so we can rid ourselves of Durham and Aurilia and start rebuildingish.

Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.

by jasomack on Mar 25, 2008 10:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He needs to have an impressive year, or at least be hot before the trade deadline, so we can rid ourselves of Durham and Aurilia and start rebuildingish.

Goddamn this is irritating. Durham and Aurillia are not preventing us from rebuilding. Total lack of talent above A-ball* is preventing us from rebuilding.

*pitching excepted.

by zenbitz on Mar 26, 2008 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather experience

Total lack of talent above A Ball than total lack of talent or HGH above 35.

by FairweatherFan on Mar 26, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously thinking about it, I would be more dissapointed if durham arullia and winn have HUGE years and the Giant's contend (but miss playoffs) than if they play young and lose 100 games.

by FairweatherFan on Mar 26, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, yeah. You can't be disappointed without hope.

I looked up Steve Kline in the dictionary. He wasn't there. If he was, it would have said "pretty okay"

by groug on Mar 26, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not me. If the Giants contend, no matter who's playing it'll be right up there with last season's Warriors in exciting feelgoodness and I'll be totally into it.

2008 Giants: A steaming pile of scrap!

by Goofus on Mar 26, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs