Velez

by cain1rstballothof on Mar 21, 2008 2:03 PM PDT Comment 15 comments

How high of an OBP would Velez need in order to break the single season SB record? The guy's good when he gets on, I really think he could do it if he had around a .340+ OBP.

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.610 OPB with 779 plate appearances.

Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.

by jasomack on Mar 21, 2008 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, let's humor this thought

He'd need to steal 131 bases for the season.

In 347 career games (Majors AND Minors), he's managed to steal 130 bases in 172 tries (75.6%).

Well, that's not encouraging for this exercise. Hasn't even broken the single season record in his CAREER. He's had 1395 plate appearances (not including sacrifices), and gotten on base 493 times. In all levels. So he steals a base every 3.79 times he gets on base, for his career. At that rate, to get 131 he'd have to get on base 497 times. If he gets 600 plate appearances, he'll have to have an OBP of roughly .833.

That's pretty insane.

So let's just assume that he gets 600 PAs, tries to steal every time he gets on base, and has a 75.6% success rate. He'll have to get on base 173 times. He'd have to OBP .288 to do that over 600 plate appearances.

That's doable, but still not remotely realistic.

Let's be more practical here. He can still try to steal every time he's first, but he doesn't try every time he gets on base. This is still excessive, but much more reasonable. 364 of the times that he's gotten on base have been singles, walks, or HBP (1). That's 73.83 of his on base appearances have gotten him no farther than first base. This means he'd have to get to first base 173 times, which means he'd have to get on base 234 times.

That's a .390 OBP.

So, even STRETCHING it within the realms of realism, he'd have to have at least a .390 OBP over 600 plate appearances to break the single season record by a single stolen base.

I just don't see it happening.

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Mar 21, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pessimist.

by mxmob33 on Mar 21, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

Thanks for the insight, Howie.

FWIW I don't recall seeing a single projection for Velez that's had him over a .340 OBP. Most of them from what I remember are around .310-.325.

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by Anticon23 on Mar 21, 2008 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interestingly

130 out of 172 was exactly the ratio Rickey had the year he set the record, and his OBP was .398. So there, problem solved!

It's also notable that Rickey himself never got within 20 of the record in any other season (and in fact only stole 100 3 times). Not only has the game changed (and the feat itself nearly impossible) but pretty clearly you have to playing in a season when going after a record is the only goal yo need to worry about (much like Barry the year he went for 40/40 in September). Certainly seems like Velez would have that going for him the next few seasons.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Mar 22, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he could always steal 3rd too, just keep running

by Azmanz on Mar 21, 2008 6:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Run Forest Run

by wilriv21 on Mar 21, 2008 6:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Velez looked awful today...

...at least, he did defensively. He missed two pop flies going back into the outfield, both that he should have had, and he made a solid stop on a ground ball going to his left, but his exchange from glove to throwing hand looked like (and was about as long as) a professional juggling act. Only A.J. Pierzynski not running it out kept that latter play an out.

He definitely needs to work on his defense more, something he should be doing in Triple-A this year.

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by BruteSentiment on Mar 22, 2008 1:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, a pipe dream since he's so inept at getting on or playing a position that would allow him 600+ AB's.

But seriously, I think in a few years, barring injury, that Carlos Gomez will indeed give the record a run.

Matt Cain, cleanup hitter or starting pitcher?

by cain1rstballothof on Mar 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No way, no day

One never knows how the game will evolve over the years, but I feel confident no one will break the SB record for at least a couple of decades.

No player has stolen 100 bases in over 20 years. The last player to do it, Vince Coleman, stole over 100 bases in each of his first 3 seasons, yet never got within 20 SB of breaking the record. And that was in the 80's, when the SB was a major offensive weapon. The construction of smaller ballparks, the popularity of PED's, and expansion further watering down pitching around the majors, has resulted in an increase in HR's. Because of this, the SB has been marginalized, the thinking being "Why risk getting thrown out when one of the next guys might bring the runner home with a gapper or HR anyway?" One player -- no matter how fast -- is not likely to change that philosophy.

And even if it did, Gomez's chances are almost the same as Velez's, which Howie already illuminated above. While Gomez is a few years younger than Velez, his career OBP in the minors is only .339 (10 points lower than Velez's), and his SB percentage and rate of stealing are just slightly higher. Add the fact Gomez has never even stolen half of the MLB record in the minors (where it's easier to both get on base and steal), and it becomes pretty obvious, he has almost no shot of even stealing 100 bases in a ML season, let alone 131.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 22, 2008 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see. I'll bet he gets over 100 as soon as he get 600+ AB's.

Matt Cain, cleanup hitter or starting pitcher?

by cain1rstballothof on Mar 22, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you want to pick a guy, Jose Reyes,

has a better chance than Gomez. Gomez still has huge flaws with his plate approach, flaws that he might never really deal with adequately.

Speed is not enough. Rickey was not just fast. He was great at getting on base too. His OBP in the year he set the record was 398. In his 2 other 100 SB seasons, 420 and 414.

Among modern players, Reyes is the closest to Rickey in having the ability to get on base at at least a decent clip and then a lot of steal bases.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 24, 2008 5:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs