Community Projection: Dan Ortmeier

Dan Ortmeier will never be an acceptable starting first baseman in the major leagues. The odds are usually against 27-year-olds at any position who haven't enjoyed a history of extended minor league success. The odds are much, much worse for the same 27-year-olds trying to play first base, which is a position that is traditionally filled with a strong offensive player. I'm pulling for him -- I really, really hope this is the worst prediction I'll ever make -- but there is just too much evidence to be anything but skeptical.

This, however, still kills me:

Among players in their 20s, only one seems destined for an everyday role - and don't count on first baseman Daniel Ortmeier, 26. Because Ortmeier is hitting .167, the Giants are considering playing Aurilia at first base and moving Kevin Frandsen, 25, to third, where he has played in recent days after Ray Durham took control at second base.

Ortmeier's job isn't in jeopardy because he hit .262/.333/.430 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League last season. Ortmeier's job isn't in jeopardy because his abysmal walk-to-strikeout ratio in the majors last season indicates that pitchers will quickly adjust to him. Ortmeier's job isn't in jeopardy because he's had about 30 or so games at first base in his career, and his offense isn't worth the defensive hit the team will take.

Ortmeier's job is in jeopardy because of 45 spring at-bats.

Think about that. After the equivalent of nine full regular-season games, the Giants said, wait, we can't start this guy! Gasp! Forget that spring stats are worthless; forget that players like Pedro Feliz, Todd Linden, and Lance Niekro tore up Scottsdale last spring. Forget that Brian Dallimore hit .500 in 2005 while Moises Alou hit .228. This time, they're worthy of determining starting spots.

I'm hoping that the Chronicle is just using the spring stats argument because it can be summed up in a single sentence. I really, really, really hope that Giants executives opened the Sunday paper and chuckled at the oversimplification. I didn't think I could be surprised at how this team is run. Astrology...phrenology...Farmer's Almanacs from the 19th-century...you could make arguments that the Giants have been using any of the three to get where they are today. But using spring training performances to determine a starting lineup would be the gravest sin of all.

In fact, no. I refuse to believe it. The Giants were always uncomfortable with Ortmeier at first, but they hoped that a torrid spring would be a public relations cushion against a failed Ortmeier experiment in the regular season. Now that the obvious has been promoted to painfully obvious, they're going to start Rich Aurilia and scour the 40-man roster moves of other teams.

I'm a glass-is-half-empty-and-probably-filled-with-arsenic guy when it comes to the Giants and their personnel decisions, but I refuse to believe that anyone's job is in jeopardy because of 45 at-bats, especially when the competition is Rich Aurilia.

Dan Ortmeier

AB: 320

AVG: .240

OBP: .288

SLG:. 390

HR: 10

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker