here and there in giantsland
Choose one: Ortmeier, Frandsen or Velez?
Since the Frandsen-at-short experiment was aborted, the starting infield has been pretty set, with Ortmeier, Durham, Bocock and Aurilia getting the overwhelming number of starts at their respective positions. But now, after the first two weeks of spring training games in which Ortmeier started virtually every game at first and really struggled offensively, the Giants seem to be moving to Plan B. For the first time that I can recall, Bochy was quoted in the weekend papers as saying that Aurilia could start at first (ResDog links to this in the diary below) - and Richie then played 1b with the A team in Cain's game against the Angels.
Essentially, with Aurilia starting somewhere (whether at first or third), the question is which one of the three kids do you want in the lineup - Ortmeier, Frandsen or Velez. The writers seem to have assumed that Frandsen gets first dibs at third, but interestingly Bochy had Velez at 3b against the Angels, alongside Aurilia, Durham and Bocock, and started Frandsen in the other game with mostly minor leaguers. For a while now he has been playing the starters together, so this might be an indication that he's leaning Velez' way. Which would be seriously cool by my book.
Note: In today's game Ortmeier and Frandsen aren't in the lineup, neither is Aurilia, and Velez is at 2b.
Shortstop: not Bocock, but who?
In the last 13 days (today included) Bocock has started at short 11 times, so its pretty clear what the Giants are thinking in terms of a stopgap while Vizquel is out. But after a promising start his offense has been pretty brutal - not surprising for a guy who has been in the minors only a year and a half and didn't hit in high-A last year. The downside of adding him to the 40-man roster two years before he is rule 5-eligible (just to replace Omar for the first two weeks of the season) is considerable. In addition to the risk of messing up his development, flipping the options hourglass this year means he'd be out of options in 2011 rather than 2013 - quite a gamble.
So who, then? Burriss obviously has similiar issues, and doesn't have the defense. Aurilia hasn't played an inning at short all spring, so its not going to be him. Which seems to leave Ochoa. Given the dearth of options, he would be my choice for a 2-week stopgap but Bochy is hardly playing him - Ochoa has started only 4 games all spring, and subbed in only 5 others. With no one on the immediate horizon, the only other possibility is a trade - hopefully for a youngster blocked somewhere who can back up Vizquel this year and then move in as the starter. Otherwise we'll be back in the same situation next year.
What is it with the pickoffs? And: Fred Lewis
Freddie Lewis was picked off first on Sunday. And on the previous Thursday. During the last week or so, Davis, Velez, Durham, Denker and Leone have also been picked off. WHAT is going on? First every starting pitcher seems to be trying out a new windup - now the baserunners are trying out taking leads with their eyes closed? Does anyone have Roberto Kelly's cellphone number?
Lewis worries me. In addition to his poor baserunning, there is the issue of his apparently brutal defense. GiantsFan9 has written a few times in his spring training blog about Lewis' bad routes, dropped balls, poor throws. Sometimes he seems like he might become a glorious hitter, but you wonder if he's the kind of player who is just incapable of "getting it" as far as the other stuff is concerned. Kind of like a Pedro Feliz in reverse.
Long relief?
With the rotation set (assuming our guys stop screwing around in the first inning), who's in the bullpen? Wilson, Walker and Hennessey seem like locks. Taschner has pitched well. Kline seems to be on the trading block (though Andy Baggarly says today that he might be released), which would hopefully allow Threets to stick around. I think we're all rooting for Merkin (great AP article on him by Janie McCauley today). Chulk would make it seven, but he's out with tendinitis and it would surprise me if he was ready in time for the start of the season. Chris Haft (nice to see he's back) says the Giants want someone for long relief, with the candidates being Misch, Santos and Yabu. Umm, Misch please.
Minor league moves
Randy Messenger has signed a minor league deal with the Giants - I guess he's going to be a Grizzly this year after all. BA and the San Jose Giants website (a pleasantly surprising source of information this spring) have listed a bunch of minor league pitchers the Giants have already released: Darren Sack, Adam Ortiz-Jusino, John Odom, Ivan Herrera-Rusova (too bad: you had to root for a pitcher from Canada who was born in Cuba and whose father was Russian), Gregorio Martinez, Ryan McGrath, Josue Gomez, Ricky Bauer, Alberto Montes.
Will Villalona's move to 1b affect who we draft?
Jim Callis at Ask BA now thinks the Giants will take a pitcher. He's assuming that the first 4 picks will be - in some order - Alvarez, Beckham, Crow and Matusz.
As for the draft, teams picking at the top of the draft usually worry about taking the best player available (unless signability is a factor) and not so much about the strengths or weaknesses of the organization. However, Villalona's shift from third base has to decrease the Giants' chances of selecting another first baseman at No. 5. Though Villalona is still just 17 and a ways from the majors, it wouldn't make much sense to take a slugging first baseman who can't move to another position when San Francisco has so many other holes to fill.
Complicating matters is the fact that first basemen represent the greatest strength in this year's draft. When the Giants' pick comes around, Florida high schooler Eric Hosmer, Smoak and Alonso will be three of the most talented players available. The best guess at this point is that San Francisco will opt for a pitcher, with Missouri high school righthander Tim Melville, Eastern Kentucky lefty Christian Friedrich and Fresno State righty Tanner Scheppers among the candidates.
Oh well...
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
3 recs |
35 comments
Comments
My bias is showing
This weekend over at SF Dugout I proposed an early season IF config of Velez-Bocock-Durham-Aurilia based on what we've seen this spring. Like you said, Ort is struggling terribly, and Frandsen just isn't getting playing time. Aurilia's playing both corner IF positions. Velez's buzz is only getting stronger. Why not kick Ort out for a while and have Velez play third?
Yeah yeah, I know I need a coverup for my bias, but still.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Mar 17, 2008 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
too soon?
I am still convinced that Sabean will make a move to grab at least one corner infielder, and soon. I hope it is for a 1bman, because Ortmeier was never the answer there. If that does happen, I want Franny to get a shot at the hot corner, and put Velez and Aurilia back on the bench.
by BigO on Mar 17, 2008 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
dual dialogue
Lefty has started a similar conversation here:
http://www.leftymalo.com/2008/03/rosteritis.php#comments
by BigO on Mar 17, 2008 1:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ortmeier
The kid is trying to do three things this spring:
1. Learn a new, more-challenging defensive position
2. Be more selective at the plate
3. Hit with more power
It seems he's doing his best to work on #1 while maybe 2 & 3 could, I repeat COULD, come along later. I don't think it would be that big of a reach for him to match Richie's projected stats (ZiPSs): .262/.314/.398. I think we should give him a couple of regular season months to see if he can. Unless of course, a better, long-term option comes along via trade.
by ResDog on Mar 17, 2008 1:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice writeup on the state of the team.
On the draft question: Last year's top "slugging first baseman who can't move to another position" was Matt LaPorta. The Brewers took him and immediately moved him to another position, and so far it seems to be paying off. Maybe Alonso couldn't do that, but Smoak is reportedly pretty athletic.
Anyway, making plans based on the projected development of a 17-year-old is daft, and Sabean is clearly a "best player available" guy, so I'm not too worried.
by Evan on Mar 17, 2008 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure..
On the "best player available" guy read of Sabean. He's tended to be a "best pitcher available" guy early and then a "we liked him and didn't think he'd be there next round" guy when he overdrafts.
Coming to you from the Land of Many Beers
by WalrusMan on Mar 17, 2008 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean he doesn't draft according to the perceived needs of the major-league team. The only possible exception I can think of is Aardsma.
I presume the pitchers he takes are the best players available on his draft board. His risk/reward algorithm is a little wonky in measuring the value of pitchers vs. hitters, but I believe he believes he's making the best choice.
"we liked him and didn't think he'd be there next round" -- how is that not "best player available"?
by Evan on Mar 18, 2008 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Example...
How was Jackson Williams the "best player available"?
Coming to you from the Land of Many Beers
by WalrusMan on Mar 18, 2008 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He sure wasn't mine, but is there any reason to believe he wasn't Sabean's?
by Evan on Mar 18, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, Evan,
I guess that depends on exactly how stupid we believe Sabean is. If Brian really thought Jackson Williams was the best player available at that moment, he is more stupid than even I or Roger or anybody else imagined. And that is a truly frightening thought. 3B Matt Mangini, C Mitch Canham, SS/3B Matt West, 3B Travis Mattair (my choice), RHP Nevin Griffith, C Jonathan Lucroy, and RHP Matt Harvey are all guys I would have taken before Williams or Culbertson - and that's just the guys that I think I know something about; there are probably a few sleepers I've never heard of that might be much better still.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on Mar 18, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I picture Sabean in his office before the 2007 draft, flipping through scouting reports, when he comes across Jackson Williams's. "Great receiving skills, nice arm, calls a good game, knows how to handle a pitching staff, gamer ... hey, this guy reminds me of Mike Matheny! It does say here that he can't hit a lick, but hell, Matheny was the worst damn hitter I ever saw, and he cost me twelve and a half million dollars! And that was in 2004! If this Williams kid can just hit as good as Matheny, by the time he hits the majors in 2013, with inflation he'll be worth, let's see ... [scrawls figures in margin of scouting report] ... one point oh eight ... carry the seven ... [scribbles furiously] ... FORTY-SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR! Holy smoke! [punches button on desktop intercom] Sweetheart! Get me Tidrow! I found our guy!" [leans back in chair, lights up stogie]
Anyway ... there are a lot of factors that go into the decision about whom to draft. Even saying "best player available" requires a complicated balancing of risk and reward, not to mention money. And even the best organizations make terrible mistakes in the draft every single year. It's a hard job. I just don't see any reason to think Sabean et al. aren't making their best judgments and trying to build the best possible team.
Last year, with the big-league club on the way to its third straight losing season, you have to figure Sabean's job security was at an all-time low. The pressure to get some win-now types into the organization must have been intense. Nevertheless, he took high-ceiling high schoolers with his first four picks. I don't agree with all of those picks, but you have to respect the long-term vision involved in making that call.
by Evan on Mar 18, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice scenario
1. Yes I absolutely do respect the fact that Sabean took younger talent in last year's draft, despite what should have been a ton of job insecurity.
2. The "stogie" part was what clinched your mini-drama. Very well done!
3. My point is that, even if we assume the best - that Sabean et al are really doing their best to find talent, and really believe that the guys they took were the best available - any reasonable objective observer would have to conclude that these guys just aren't very good at their jobs. To be fair, several other organizations can be accused of the same. But the Giants are down there pretty far, with the Pirates right next to them. People this bad get fired, where I work.
4. I still want you as the Giant's GM, and Roger as the manager. I think E would be fabulous in the Marketing Department. Howie and the Baroness should write all the promo material, day-of-game handouts, etc, with illustrations by Natto. nvsfg and I will coordinate the Matt Downs Appreciation Society.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on Mar 19, 2008 3:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why not just go with the best 7 relievers? I know that a long-man is always needed, but Hennessey and Taschner both used to start and most of our relievers could throw 2 innings, so you don't really need a designated long man. The other thing I don't like is that the last few years we did not have defined roles in the pen, and we relied to much on righty-righty, lefty-lefty match-ups which seems to lead to a lot of big innings. Why not have Wilson close, Walker the 8th, Valdez the 7th, Chulk the 6th, Hennessey, Taschner and Threets.
by mark30perq3 on Mar 17, 2008 3:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
What he said^^^^^^
IAWTC
+1
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 17, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scheppervescense!!
I'm not sure what Evan meant specifically, but I AM worried that Sabean will draft a pitcher. Justin Smoak seems too good of a hitter to pass up. He could move to the OF, or Angel could, eventually. We'd worry about that problem when it happened.
I'd be happy to gamble on a HS pitcher with our second pick, but this team screams out for a real power hitter. Paula Cole didn't quite get it right: where have all the SF sluggers gone?
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on Mar 17, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
how he could even justify passing up Smoak for a pitcher in the first round with this year's draft class, Smoak isn't the only hitter I can see him taking, but I can't see him justifiably being passed over for a pitcher.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!
by howtheyscored on Mar 17, 2008 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another idea
Draft Smoak and move Villalona to right field. One of the things that bugged me about moving V from third to first base is that the kid has a cannon. Why let it atrophy at first base? And Smoak can get some time in the outfield as well on his way up.
by da5id on Mar 17, 2008 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I might cry if we take a pitcher again. We passed up on Heyward last year and now it looks like we might pass up on Smoak this year. Just where is our offense supposed to come from in the future?
by Sandor Clegane on Mar 17, 2008 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonan!
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!
by howtheyscored on Mar 17, 2008 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak
Is anyone concerned that Smoak hit only .223 for Team USA last year?? He supposedly looked really bad too, showing no plate discipline. I think Yonder Alonso might be a better choice. I know he's not a stud athlete like Smoak, but he seems to know how to draw a walk when he's not mashing.
Randy Messenger: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!!"
by rxmeister on Mar 20, 2008 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter.
Until the farm system personnel (not the players) are cleaned out, expect no improvement. Its been 20 years. Fifteen years under Magowan's minions have produced nothing. Magowan seriously believes that Zito is going to have a bounce back year.
Thats what we're dealing with here folks. Its not just a matter of Sabean. Everybody can blame Sabean and Baer and Tidrow and Hiat and Bochy. Those guys do what they can do as best as they can do. Obviously not very well under immediate past, present, nor in the near future conditions.
by E Ticket on Mar 17, 2008 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I blame Sabean...
Sabean is responsible for bringing in Tidrow, for keeping deadwood Jack Hiatt around for a dozen years (until he finally "retired"), and for hiring Bochy (Magowan was said to have preferred Ron Wotus). I get the impression that Magowan was the driving force responsible for the Zito signing. But then again, any GM with an aura of strength wafting off him would have been able to stand up to his owner and avert the Zito disaster.
Then again, Magowan is responsible for having re-signed Sabean last July to the two-year extension, which certainly makes him culpable. As for Baer, I don't see what he has to do with anything. Does he whisper advice in Magowan's ear?
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Mar 18, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats the point. Magowan is responsible for extending Sabean. And for foisting Zito on us. It goes to his judgment. Bad. Complacent. Equivocal. Meddling. These are adjectives I would use to describe Magowan's baseball judgment. So it follows that with cleaning out Baer as well. He is the no. 2 man in the organization, not Sabean. The organization is as moribund as its been since 1991-2. Stale from top to bottom. Its not readily apparent to the casual fan yet. But it will be before the end of the year. Its not that Baer has done anything egregiously wrong, but like all management teams, whether government, business, sports, or combat. If you're not changing and growing, you're going backwards, while your opponents/competition plan your demise. Baer is part of the old regime. He needs to go too. He represents old ideas. Old ways of doing things. He is complicit in the demise. As he is and was not part of the solution, he was part of the problem. Not as retribution, but to open up his position for new thinking and new blood. See Stoneham and his minions 1975. See Lurie 1992.
I'm just one of those who believe that all the decision makers must be held accountable. There is a track record of failure on everybody's part. The over emphasis on the All Star Game as opposed to player personnel at all levels. The total mishandling of the PR surrounding Barry Bonds. They're going to look particularly cowardly if Bonds is exonerated mere blocks from 24 Willie Mays Plaza. I don't think Baer anticipated this possibility at all. In the same way that Horace Stoneham did not anticipate the long-term bitterness of Mays middle of the night trade to the Mets. Everybody likes to blame the weather for the shitty attendance at the Stick. To an extent, it contributed. People stayed away because they knew Stoneham, and then Lurie broke faith with the fans. And the teams were horrible, and they made excuses about "costs" and blamed the players they would not sign. Much as Magowan and Baer have.
They have one year of fair to good attendance left. And still there is no evidence of change, other than non-tendering one of the best hitters in the game. Besides. I'm sick of listening to Baer's Barnum and Bailey's smugness. Its old. Its phony. Mainly it doesn't help. I would like to be proven wrong, but there is nothing concrete now or on the horizon. Old brains are going to keep giving you the old ideas.
The reason I keep harping on this, is because this is the cause of everything wrong with the Giants. Not bad drafts. Bad coaching. Bad managing. Bad personnel decisions. These are the symptoms. Not the cause.
by E Ticket on Mar 18, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yes. Taking a pitcher would be bad and evil and wrong. Unless he comes up with Timmy 3. And maybe not even then.
by Evan on Mar 18, 2008 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best player
I'm pretty much open to any pick, as long as it's the guy Sabean, Tidrow and Co. believe is the best available. Pitchers flame out so often that you basically can't end up with too many. And when it comes to Villalona, I'd guess Smoak or Hosmer would have the athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot. Even if they can't, two good first-base prospects isn't really a problem impossible to solve.
by Dan from NM on Mar 19, 2008 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching
Apparently the best pitchers in this draft are Crow, Matusz and Melville? If all of these pitchers are available should SF draft the top one on their board? Why not? Especially if the organization feels the pitcher can reach ML within 18 months and would be considered an Ace.
by wilriv21 on Mar 18, 2008 12:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I believe the consensus is that there are no really elite pitchers in this draft class, pitchers of the caliber of Price and Porcello last year, or Miller and Lincecum the year before.
by Evan on Mar 18, 2008 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
options on Bocock and Burriss
After looking at a BP article that explains options - I won't link because it's subscriber-only - I don't think there is such a concern about "starting the clock" on our young middle infielders. Consider:
A player is eligible for a fourth option season if he has been optioned in three seasons and has not yet amassed five full seasons of professional baseball experience. A little slower now: if a player runs through his three option years very quickly in his professional career than his team is granted a fourth option.
Consider another Giant, pitcher Kevin Correia. As you can guess from his professional record he was added to the Giants 40-man roster in 2003 and optioned down to the minors in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Three options burned so he can't be optioned again in 2006, right? Well, because his options were burned before he amassed five seasons of professional experience, he gets a fourth option year.
What counts as a season of professional baseball for the option rule? Generally speaking, a player has to be on the active list of a major-league or minor-league team for at least 90 days during a championship season to be credited with a season of service.
I think that this 4th year rule would apply to both Bocock and Burris (41games and 65 games respectively in their first year of play) if they are used at the start of this season. They would burn an option this year, but even if they continued to burn 'em in '09 and '10, they would get options in '11 as well. Funny thing is, if you don't put them on the 40-man this year, the timeline would be the same (if they put in a full season in the minors this year).
I lose the thread a little when the rule-5 thing surfaces, so maybe someone can correct me?
by BigO on Mar 18, 2008 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
expand the quote
sorry. third and fourth paragraphs are Bp's too. Still getting used to this editor.
by BigO on Mar 18, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
velez at 3B
fan9 observed, firsthand, that Velez has trouble with the throw from third and is better off at second base.
So I sez, only put him at 3B when Lincecum or Cain are pitching, 'cz there'll be fewer balls hit hard to third.
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
by foothillsfan on Mar 18, 2008 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Might be good
With work on his throwing accuracy, Eugenio Velez might actually make a pretty good defensive third baseman. His reactions, at a reaction position, are cat-quick. I'm not sure I've seen a third baseman any quicker.
by sharksrog on Mar 18, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have barely seen Velez play with any regularity. So I won’t pretend to has a good gauge on his fielding reflexes. But if he is that quick visions of a later day, lesser, Maury Wills has be dancing the Boulder Head’s skull. Of coarse Wills didn’t shift to third tell late in his career but you get what I mean here.
I am a Giants fan. Thus I enjoy my pain.
by daveinexile on Mar 20, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I sez to Mabel, I sez
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Mar 19, 2008 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"So I sez to Mabel, I sez "
Very Nice :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. He's sort of like Bill Mueller without the "two flap" helmet.
by nvsfg on Mar 19, 2008 8:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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