Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Grant Brisbee on Mar 14, 2008 1:22 PM PDT
Email
Print"You're going to have competition every year. People are always going to say there's going to be battles, competitions," Durham said. "But still, if a guy fighting for the position hits .600 (in spring training) and the starter hits .300, the starter always seems to get the nod, from what I've been a part of and from what I've seen."Missing from this theory is the idea that Durham was one of the worst regular players in baseball last year. I remember him stinking up the joint, you remember him stinking up the joint, but does anyone remember just how bad he was? .218/.295/.343? That's like having Livan Hernandez start at second, though Hernandez would probably have had better range.
Thing is, prior to last season, Durham was one of the most consistent players in baseball. Last season's abomination snapped an 11-year streak of above-average hitting. Smarter folks than I think that Durham might rebound. There is some logic to a Durham renaissance, and the U.S.S. Mariner details it pretty well. It doesn't hurt that he's spanking the ball in March.
So here are the options:
- Start Durham with an eye on moving him at the trading deadline, but give him a short leash. If his April isn't an improvement on his 2007 season, he gets buried on the bench.
- Bury Durham on the bench from the start of the season.
- Find at-bats for both Durham and Kevin Frandsen throughout the year.
- Start Durham because he's the starter. How can you make a starter a not-starter? That totally goes against the definition of starter. By definition, Durham should start because he is the starter. If he struggles, he'll work through it. Gamer. Starter. Veteran presence. Hustle. *bunt*. Gamer.
Somehow, I have a feeling that the fourth option is how the Giants are approaching the Opening Day roster. Taking that into account, we get:
Ray Durham
AVG: .258
OBP: .322
SLG: .385
HR: 11
AB: 433
And, like Ryan Klesko last season, no one wants him at the trading deadline.
Links:
ZiPS projection
Baseball Prospectus projection (subscriber only)
Last year's hilarious Ray Durham prediction thread. Man, were we off.
57 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
AVG: .240
OBP: .309
SLG: .369
HR: 4
AB: 318
He gets released in July.
I looked up Steve Kline in the dictionary. He wasn't there. If he was, it would have said "pretty okay"
AVG: .275
OBP: .320
SLG: .440
BTW, does anybody know how to put inks in our signature lines now? I tried changing the text editor from WYSIWYG to HTML, but that didn't help.
iGracias!
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
"links", d'oh!
I really couldn't care less about inks.
Also, it sure would be nice to be able to edit comments! Previews are for wusses, or, if you prefer, weenuses.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
He'll be better.
Of course, he couldn't be much worse.
AVG: .248
OBP: .314
SLG: .379
HR: 5
AB: 230
Ruben Rivera: Incompetent oaf, or mad genius?
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Mar 14, 2008 1:39 PM PDT reply actions
AVG: .238
OBP: .308
SLG: .368
HR: 8
AB: 458
It looks like I love anything that ends with 8...but the at bats are what scare me the most. I have a feeling that because this a "contract" year for Ray, Sabean and Botchy might give him too much rope in the hope that he can have a huge bounce back. I just have a feeling that Ray will end up hanging himself...and the rest of us with all of that rope
Octophiliac.
Anyone else think the Justice League of National is more strategic & interesting than the Justice League of America?
by Mayor of 311 on Mar 14, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
[Taking a good, hard look in the mirror... ]
Anyone else think the Justice League of National is more strategic & interesting than the Justice League of America?
by Mayor of 311 on Mar 14, 2008 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions
A believer in the rebound
AVG: .276
OBP: .352
SLG: .468
HR: 18
AB: 512 - Between the Giants & Astros after Kaz Matsui struggles
with the giants going to suck this year, and ray-ray's contract expiring, there will be offers from other teams who will want a veteran to come off of someone's bench for pinch hitting. the unfortunate thing is, our GM will either not trade him because he will say "we need his leadership on our team" or he will trade him for someone like livan hernandez and a player to be named later. oh the beginning of a long, long period of non-competitive years. at least we got kruk and kuip to keep be company on FSN.
Check us out on myspace
by Cynema the Band on Mar 14, 2008 2:20 PM PDT reply actions
I suggesed Durham is going to have a rebound year back in November and everyone jumped on me and called me names. Bad names.
.283 .345 .510 112OPS+
That's crazy talk.
Stoned-sweaty-half-naked Biedrins says you need to learn more about rebounds...
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
The slugging is nuts and the ops+ too, probably. But I could seriously see the avg and obp. They're around career norms and lower than his 2006 numbers. I've never seen so many people declare a very good baseball player's career absolutely over after one down season.
I actually read it wrong at first
for some reason, I read it as 1120 OPS. It's actually not that crazy a prediction, in light of his contract years past. Perhaps the Latvian legend is not needed.
Julio is tourist in San Francisco?
Nobody wants him.
Matt Cain, cleanup hitter or starting pitcher?
by cain1rstballothof on Mar 14, 2008 2:52 PM PDT reply actions
ray of hope
.285
.348
.399
10 hr
AB traded at deadline to a contender. will contribute in big way to contender's playoff run.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Mar 14, 2008 2:54 PM PDT reply actions
First Half:
AVG: .291
OBP: 360
SLG: 410
HR: 10
AB: 124
Here is where speculation begins. Giants suprisingly are only 7 1/2 out at this point (Stay with me on this). What Sabean should do is jump at the first team (who trying to contend and wanting to upgrade at the second base position) who will throw any type of decent hitting prospect at us for him. This is where reality sets in and we realize that Sabean being Sabean thinks, Hey we are only 7 1/2 games out, we could make the play-offs and tries to deal for more veterens.
Durhams tears his hammie and is out for the rest of the year. Sabean looks at his first half and gives him 3 more years at 7 million a year.
by WilliamVanLandingham on Mar 14, 2008 2:57 PM PDT reply actions
I think he'll bounce back somewhat (he practically has to!) but not that much.
AVG: .267
OBP: .342
SLG: .402
HR: 10
AB: 447
if the lgOPS for AT&T last year was .775, then that has to be somewhere in the 90s for OPS+, which sounds right to me.
and he is not traded.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I'm Double or Nothing from last season!
For those of you with little faith and little hope:
ABS: 650
HITS: 234
AVG: .360
OBP: .401
SLG: .533
OPS: .934
HRS: 75
SBS: 117
CS: 117
Height 6-11
Ray breaks Barry's HR record for Single Season
Ray also breaks Rickey Hendersons record for SB in a single season.
Ray also sets the record for Caught Stealings
As you can tell, Ray Ray will attempt to steal everytime he reaches base; including the 75 times he homers, by stealing 1b after he crosses homeplate.
He also breaks record for Human Growth Hormone Ingestion by growing 15 inches in the offseason.
Please feel free to joing those of us who have no sense
by E Ticket on Mar 14, 2008 3:37 PM PDT reply actions
Man, I guarantee that if Durham's AVG is anywhere near .360, his OBP is going much higher than .400. He tends to have an isolated OBP between .070 and .080 (even last year!), so it would be something more like .430-.440. Your prediction is hella unrealistic.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!
by howtheyscored on Mar 14, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Durham
I'm in general agreement with E Ticket, although I see him breaking Rickey's season SB record with 135.
The good news -- I just got him for $62 in my NL only 4x4 league.
Flaxseed oil dependent
To Xanthan
I'm just curious how you're going to deal with these things like SLG and AVG when you do up your calculations, especially since with SLG you don't have enough information to work the averages back into their raw amounts. Are you going to go the tedious (or less tedious with a good spreadsheet) route to get it to the greatest accuracy, or just do dirty averages to get it out of the way?
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!
"rebound season"
AB: 481
BA: .255
OBP: .327
SLG: .386
HR: 12
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
Let's look at Ray's numbers in contract years
Durham's numbers in contract years are significantly higher than his career averages.
2006 .293/.360/.538/26/93
2002 .289/.374/.450/15/70
The only question is, why (oh why) did Sabean fall for the banana in the tailpipe trick last year. Who knows. But the statistics tell us Ray Ray will have an above average year this year, which will increase the odds of us getting something decent for him before the deadline.
Not optimistic
AVG: .266
OBP: .320
SLG: .367
HR: 10
AB: 320
I predict he'll hit well enough (for this team, not compared to the league) to be a possible trade target in July, then suffer an injury that prevents the possible trade. Giants are stuck with him, he returns in September and proceeds to post 2007-like numbers, downwardly skewing his overall numbers.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
AVG .259
OBP .337
SLG .412
405 AB
13 HR
1 stint on DL
Traded for a marginal prospect at the deadline.
Then Frandsen slumps the last month and Sabean spends big money on Mark Ellis.
Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.
If last year was a hiccup
Then I will predict for Ray what I posted for 2007:
(blushing)
AVG: .292
OBP: .372
SLG: .445
HR: 30
RBI: 100
AB: 546
(wincing, hiding)
I don't think the fact that Ray is hitting very, very well in ST, has talked specifically about what he did wrong last year ( hitting the ball to far out in front), and that he has almost always been a contract year/clutch hitter type can be ignored. I see:
BA : 270 + or - 10 pts
OBP: 340
SLG: 425
I think, even assuming he is hitting this well, Sabean just won't trade him at the deadline. Q: If he plays well all year and signs elsewhere next year, do we get a draft pick?
According to PS3 MLB08 predictions
Mr Durham will be sitting @ .315 w/ 7 hrs at the break. Benji Molina leads the league w/ a .427 BA w/ 11 hrs. Ladies and genlemen, you cannot argue w/ this science!
Matt Cain's right hand beats a Royal Flush.
AVG: .248
OBP: .323
SLG: .400
HR: 13
AB: 459
Bonds stands alone.
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 15, 2008 9:18 AM PDT reply actions
alternate prediction
Durham's hammy explodes by June.
Bonds stands alone.
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 15, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Contract year, 3rd lowest BABIP last year...
He'll rebound, but don't expect miracles. Durham was extremely unlucky last year, in addition to having copious amounts of suck. He'll get back closer to his career averages, w/ higher OBP-AVG differentials & less SLG...
AVG: .274
OBP: 366
SLG: 409
HR: 12
AB: 542
I think that performance, especially with a solid first half and a lucky injury gets us a high ceiling young pitcher from a contending team at the deadline.
Delaying the disappointment: I adopt Hector Sanchez because he's only 17.
P.A’s 500
H 108
BB 55
K 82
TB 172
That’s a far as I can swagger after drinking the entire bowl of Savvy Veteran flavor* Kool Aid. I know when I wake from this Sprint Training induced binge I well chide myself for being too much of a homer. Tell then were is my togo?
* Now fortified with extra Warrior Spirit!
Smarter folks than I think that Durham might rebound.
Dave's plenty smart, but he wasn't letting his brain do the talking in that post:
As a switch-hitting 2B/3B/1B/LF/RF/DH candidate, Durham would offer McLaren all kinds of options in putting out a line-up.
OK, then. Durhman has played 13 seasons in the majors and only 1 inning at any position other than 2B. So naturally at age 36 he'll turn into Mark McLemore.
That right there is what the hot stove season is all about. 100 proof speculation.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
