Note: These are projections for 2008 and not the 2007 season. I'm only comparing our projections to what Zito did in '07 for comparisons sake.
I apologize if any of these images look a little funky, I only have MSPaint installed on this PC.
Sorry if you're projection wasn't included. I didn't include the drastic ones where Zito posted a 7+ ERA or something ridiculous.
20 projections were used for the numbers. Overall, McC projected Barry Zito for a ERA of 4.32 in 204 IP with 132 K's, 87 BB's, and 23 HR's allowed.
I added K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 in an effort to create some uniformity with the numbers. I know they aren't perfect but they are quick and dirty enough to add some sort of uniformity to the numbers since everyone projected different innings for Zito. McC projected Zito for a K/9 of 5.83, a BB/9 of 3.84, and a HR/9 of 1.03
When comparing to Zito's 2007, our projections are pretty close to what Zito did in '07. Our projeceted ERA is 0.19 better than his '07 ERA, everything else -- K's, BB's, HRA, K/9, BB/9 -- are almost exactly the same thing. Our projection thinks that Zito will keep the ball in the park a little more than he did in '07 with a HR/9 of 1.03 compared to his rate of 1.1 in '07.
I also thought it would be fun to stack our projections to other systems.
For a bunch of optimistic people, we gave Zito one of the more pessimistic projections. But, it's still not that far from what other systems are saying. McC projected the worst ERA and K/9 for Zito. Our HR/9 projection was the 2nd worst.
I'd be thrilled if Zito hit any of these other projection systems -- ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel, or Pecota.
Let's take a look at some of the categories we tried to project.
McC projected Zito to throw an average of 204 innings in 2008.
Mr. Optimistic - It's a tie between ResDog and Cainer, both who projected Zito to throw a high 220 IP. Almost 25 IP more than his '07 total.
Mr. Pessimistic - wcw wins the pessimistic award for the IP projection. He projected Zito to throw 174 innings, or 22.2 IP less than his '07 totals.
McC projected Zito's '08 ERA at 4.32.
Mr. Optimistic - I'm shocked that zito75 was the most optimistic when it came to Zito's ERA! He projected Zito's ERA at 3.68, 0.85 runs less than his '07 ERA.
Mr. Pessimistic - coockyman wins this one with his frightening projection of 5.21. He was the only user to project Zito with a 5+ ERA.
McC projected Zito's K/9 at 5.83, slightly under his rate of 5.99 in '07.
Mr. Optimistic - Cainer has Zito regaining some of his old mojo to post a K/9 of 6.95.
Mr. Pessimistic - Scottsdale has Zito turning into Kirk Rueter with a K/9 of 4.52.
McC projected Zito for a BB/9 of 3.84, nearly identical to his BB/9 in '07 of 3.80.
Mr. Optimistic - GobearsGoGiants must have been drinking the Zito Kool Aid, his BB/9 of 2.94 is super low. For those interested, Zito has never posted a BB/9 of under 3, his career lowest is 3.06 in his 2002 season.
Mr. Pessimistic - coockyman strikes again with his pessimism! His BB/9 of 5.21 is 1.41 over Zito's '07 BB/9.
McC projected Zito's HR/9 at 1.03 down from his '07 HR/9 of 1.1
Mr. Optimistic - Grant thinks Zito will keep the ball in the yard more often with a crazy low HR/9 of 0.65, who let this guy in here!?
Mr. Pessimistic - coockyman has Barry Zito pitching like Matt Herges in 1997 Coors Field with his projected HR/9 of 1.66
So on the whole, we're a slightly pessimistic bunch of bastards. I think our projection numbers turned out to be pretty realistic. I thought it was cool how our community projection was generally close to the real projection systems.