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Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Series

Sub-title: Gets mocked by any being with an IQ above 50.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AqVulMVBKLnVGibPjFrQ6xA5nYcB?slug=anonbettingmansworldseri& ;prov=tsn&type=lgns

Anyways, I understand that he's picking them as the sleeper bet with longshot odds, but I don't really care.  There is no chance for the Giants this year, and based on those odds there are better teams that have longer odds.  Personally, if I were betting with the listed odds, these are the teams I would take (in order):

Tampa: 150 to 1.  They've got a young team that could take a huge step forward, their defense should be much better this year, and PECOTA projected them for like 89 wins.  It would seem they are close.  The Giants odds were 100 to 1, and Tampa so obviously has a better shot than us.

Nationals: 200 to 1.  They have a lot of interesting options for offense, especially in the outfield.  Their pitching staff is questionable, but at 200 to 1, this seems like a decent enough bet.

Arizona: 22 to 1.  I'm agreeing with the guy I called a moron, I know.  Anyways, this seems fairly straightforward.  What they will surely lose in the bullpen from last year, they should gain back from the development of their hitters and the acquisition of Haren.  A healthy Randy would make this even more interesting.

Anyone have any bets they would take, based on the odds listed in the article?  I was interested in Cincy at 50 to 1, but I just can't trust Dusty to dole out playing time correctly.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Series
I wouldn't like this teams chances if this were a Disney movie.

by mikeivie on Mar 12, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
Well put.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
The Giants will be the first half of Bambi.
Nattowear | artstuff | Durham? I know 'im!

by Natto on Mar 12, 2008 3:21 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
Bambi's mom is gonna lead us to the promised land.
So relax! Let's have some fun out here! This game's fun, OK? Fun goddamnit.

by ResDog on Mar 12, 2008 6:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
 I didn't know you can you get into the WS by losing 100+ games
"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading

by Mordy From Monsey on Mar 12, 2008 6:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
Yeah, it's a glitch in the game.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Mar 12, 2008 7:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Series
Not to fret. Selig will fix it before the Brewers "Rectal Exam Night"

by E Ticket on Mar 12, 2008 8:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants
That's not why he's a moron.  He's a moron because he apparently wrote this article twice.
Barry Zito: Throws until there's nothing left -- which is usually around the 3rd inning. Barry's a GAMER!!!

by Woody Wins on Mar 12, 2008 1:48 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
I can't believe there are 6 teams with worse odds to win the world series. hmmmm

by WilliamVanLandingham on Mar 12, 2008 2:20 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Yeah, that doesn't make much sense, does it?  Especially when you consider, just to make the playoffs, we have to somehow leap 4 teams that are better than us.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 12, 2008 3:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
makes you wanna hedge....
"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading

by Mordy From Monsey on Mar 12, 2008 6:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
The Giants are #29 on my sleeper list.
At least it's baseball season.

by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 12, 2008 3:07 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Out of curiosity, who's #30?  Baltimore, Pittsburgh?
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
RULE 13.464-A: dodgers must be #30 on all lists created by giants fans
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick on Mar 12, 2008 7:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
They're No. 31 on my list right behind the Nashville Sounds

by E Ticket on Mar 12, 2008 8:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Arizona: 22 to 1

This is a terrible bet.  D-back had a worse pythagorean record than the Giants last year.

by zenbitz on Mar 12, 2008 3:34 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
True, but that's hardly the deciding factor for this year.  They added Haren and they might get more than 10 starts out of Randy.  In addition, Drew, Young, and Upton are all good bets to hit better.  They were certainly lucky last year, but I don't think they'll need to be lucky to be good this year.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 12, 2008 3:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Can you play a Pythagorean record on a Vic trola?
Aaron "Swag" Rowand

by victor frankenstein on Mar 12, 2008 8:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, because looking
at last year's pythag is the best way to project how a team does in the next year.

Don't have bother to project individual players on the roster, including newly acquired players, just use pythag.

by rfloh on Mar 13, 2008 12:15 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Yes, because looking

Well, perhaps I overreacted.  But they played like a 78 win team last year.  You think Dan Haren + improvment gets them 7 more wins, then I guess a 22-1 is warrented.  I would guess more like 30-1 (zeroth order prediction, that).

Also - by component performance (minus luck) the D-backs and Giants were about the same level (77-78 wins).    Their vegas odds are 22-1 and 100-1 respectivly.   I realize that the Diamondbacks are likely to be better and the Giants likely to be worse (than 2007), but I don't think either of these effects are strong enough to push them very far from the default 30-1.

Or I'm just wrong.  22-1 is like 4.7%  30-1 is 3.4% 100-1 is just more than 1%.

So the difference between 22-1 and 30-1 is not really huge.  100-1 more so... I put the Giants at more like 50-1, which is why I think it's a good bet.  

by zenbitz on Mar 13, 2008 9:15 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, by component
performance, the Giants and the DBacks were about equal, last year.

The DBacks added talent. The Giants, unless you believe that Rowand is an improvement on Bonds did not.

The DBacks do have the kind of roster, filled with young players, many of whom were young for their levels, many of whom are considered good prospects, that is likely to improve.

The Giants do have Cain and Lincecum. But the rest of the roster is a bunch of old players who are more likely than young players to decline (further) / get injured.

Nonetheless, that is not my point. My point is that just pointing to a team's pythag is poor analysis, and is really starting to be overused by statheads.

by rfloh on Mar 13, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
2 to 1 the Giants put me into a state of deep, deep slumber on a warm summer's eve.  That's your sleeper bet.

by satyricrash on Mar 12, 2008 6:53 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

zzzzzzzzz
Cotton PJs and a trashy novel and I'm there.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Mar 13, 2008 10:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Whilst this argument is strange as we have no chance of winning the world series, but i would give us more chance of winning than Tampa Bay or Washington.

Tampa Bay for example, they're likely to be a better team than us, and they'll probably win more games than us, but that's not the same as their likelihood to win the world series. It'd just be harder for them to make the playoffs, given the league & division they play in.

by GiantFan on Mar 13, 2008 6:19 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
I thought about how difficult it would be for Tampa to make the playoffs in the East, but I went to PECOTA for this one.  PECOTA is scary accurate and projects them to win 89 games while the wild card is winning 91 games.  The difference there is negligible, and is what makes me think they have a shot at making the playoffs.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 13, 2008 10:38 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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