Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Series
Sub-title: Gets mocked by any being with an IQ above 50.
Anyways, I understand that he's picking them as the sleeper bet with longshot odds, but I don't really care. There is no chance for the Giants this year, and based on those odds there are better teams that have longer odds. Personally, if I were betting with the listed odds, these are the teams I would take (in order):
Tampa: 150 to 1. They've got a young team that could take a huge step forward, their defense should be much better this year, and PECOTA projected them for like 89 wins. It would seem they are close. The Giants odds were 100 to 1, and Tampa so obviously has a better shot than us.
Nationals: 200 to 1. They have a lot of interesting options for offense, especially in the outfield. Their pitching staff is questionable, but at 200 to 1, this seems like a decent enough bet.
Arizona: 22 to 1. I'm agreeing with the guy I called a moron, I know. Anyways, this seems fairly straightforward. What they will surely lose in the bullpen from last year, they should gain back from the development of their hitters and the acquisition of Haren. A healthy Randy would make this even more interesting.
Anyone have any bets they would take, based on the odds listed in the article? I was interested in Cincy at 50 to 1, but I just can't trust Dusty to dole out playing time correctly.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Series
by mikeivie on
Mar 12, 2008 1:45 PM PDT
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Re: Series
by marcello on
Mar 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT
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Re: Series
by ResDog on
Mar 12, 2008 6:49 PM PDT
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Re: Series
by Mordy From Monsey on
Mar 12, 2008 6:28 PM PDT
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Re: Series
by howtheyscored on
Mar 12, 2008 7:20 PM PDT
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Re: Series
by E Ticket on
Mar 12, 2008 8:28 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants
by Woody Wins on
Mar 12, 2008 1:48 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by WilliamVanLandingham on
Mar 12, 2008 2:20 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by marcello on
Mar 12, 2008 3:15 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by Mordy From Monsey on
Mar 12, 2008 6:28 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by nostocksjustbonds on
Mar 12, 2008 3:07 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by marcello on
Mar 12, 2008 3:13 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by nick on
Mar 12, 2008 7:54 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by E Ticket on
Mar 12, 2008 8:29 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by sharksrog on
Mar 13, 2008 1:10 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
This is a terrible bet. D-back had a worse pythagorean record than the Giants last year.
by zenbitz on
Mar 12, 2008 3:34 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by marcello on
Mar 12, 2008 3:48 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by victor frankenstein on
Mar 12, 2008 8:09 PM PDT
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Yes, because looking
Don't have bother to project individual players on the roster, including newly acquired players, just use pythag.
by rfloh on
Mar 13, 2008 12:15 AM PDT
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Re: Yes, because looking
Well, perhaps I overreacted. But they played like a 78 win team last year. You think Dan Haren + improvment gets them 7 more wins, then I guess a 22-1 is warrented. I would guess more like 30-1 (zeroth order prediction, that).
Also - by component performance (minus luck) the D-backs and Giants were about the same level (77-78 wins). Their vegas odds are 22-1 and 100-1 respectivly. I realize that the Diamondbacks are likely to be better and the Giants likely to be worse (than 2007), but I don't think either of these effects are strong enough to push them very far from the default 30-1.
Or I'm just wrong. 22-1 is like 4.7% 30-1 is 3.4% 100-1 is just more than 1%.
So the difference between 22-1 and 30-1 is not really huge. 100-1 more so... I put the Giants at more like 50-1, which is why I think it's a good bet.
by zenbitz on
Mar 13, 2008 9:15 AM PDT
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Yes, by component
The DBacks added talent. The Giants, unless you believe that Rowand is an improvement on Bonds did not.
The DBacks do have the kind of roster, filled with young players, many of whom were young for their levels, many of whom are considered good prospects, that is likely to improve.
The Giants do have Cain and Lincecum. But the rest of the roster is a bunch of old players who are more likely than young players to decline (further) / get injured.
Nonetheless, that is not my point. My point is that just pointing to a team's pythag is poor analysis, and is really starting to be overused by statheads.
by rfloh on
Mar 13, 2008 1:30 PM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by satyricrash on
Mar 12, 2008 6:53 PM PDT
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zzzzzzzzz
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Mar 13, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
Tampa Bay for example, they're likely to be a better team than us, and they'll probably win more games than us, but that's not the same as their likelihood to win the world series. It'd just be harder for them to make the playoffs, given the league & division they play in.
by GiantFan on
Mar 13, 2008 6:19 AM PDT
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Re: Moron Picks Giants as Sleeper Bet for World Se
by marcello on
Mar 13, 2008 10:38 AM PDT
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