McCovey Chronicles: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: The Boxing Bulletin for Boxing Fans!

Serious Analysis

"Say there, Grant," no one has ever asked. "Don't you remember the last time a Giants team was given absolutely no chance to compete? Hello, 1997?" Interesting point, questioner made up to introduce this post. That's still my favorite Giants season of the past 15 years. Let's go through and compare both teams at each position.

C - Bengie Molina isn't an All-Star, and his on-base percentage is usually pretty wretched. Still, he gives a little pop from the catcher's position, which is more than the remains of Rick Wilkins provided. Brian Johnson came in at the trading deadline and provided some fluky-clutch goodness, but Molina is a better bet.

Advantage: 2008

1B - Faced with starting a non-prospect like Desi Wilson, Brian Sabean traded for a youngish first baseman whose value had bottomed out after a down season. This player's minor league career indicated that he could be an average MLB hitter, even if he was likely to be below the positional average for first base. That move worked out so horribly that there was no way Sabean would make the same mistake this offseason by filling the first base hole with a sense of urgency.

The Snow trade was widely reviled by the internet baseball nerd consortium, but at least Snow had a MLB season under his belt (1995 -  .289/.353/.465) that was as good as Dan Ortmeier's best season in the minors.

Advantage: 1997

2B - Jeff Kent was good...but he wasn't Hall-of-Fame good yet. His .250/.316/.472 line was about what the Giants had a right to expect in 1997. There's a small chance that Ray Durham could better that line - he did from 1998 to 2006, after all - but the odds are that Durham ain't gonna find what's been lost, and Kevin Frandsen probably won't come too close to a .472 slugging percentage at any point during his career.

Advantage: 1997

SS - Jose Vizcaino hit .266/.323/.350 in 1997, which is about what the Giants should have expected. Vizquel will probably put up similar numbers, but his defense is still an improvement on vintage Vizcaino's defense.

Advantage: 2008

3B - If the Giants get the production from third in 2008 that they did from the Bill Mueller/Mark Lewis combo in 1997, it will be a small miracle.

Advantage: 1997

CF - Darryl Hamilton had a fine year with the glove and bat, but Aaron Rowand will supply a bit more power to go along with the sweet fielding.

Advantage: 2008

RF - Glenallen Hill had a sub-.300 on-base percentage, and he had the defensive mobility of that AT-AT from Empire Strikes Back with its legs bound together. Randy Winn is Randy Winn, but that's better than Glenallen Hill.

Advantage: 2008

SP - Shawn Estes had the best year of his career, as did Kirk Rueter. If Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum combine for 390 innings of  125 ERA+, we'd probably all consider that a successful year. The 2008 Giants have more depth, though. Barry Zito, Noah Lowry, and Kevin Correia/Jonathan Sanchez are better options than Mark Gardner, Osvaldo Fernandez, and William Van Landingham, for sure.

Advantage: 2008

RP - Rod Beck had a pretty nice season, Fred McGriff aside, and Julian Tavarez and Doug Henry had nice first halves. Still, the bullpen was mostly a disaster until the team traded for Roberto Hernandez. The 2008 Giants have more potential, but it's tough to call this one.

Advantage: Push

Lessee....that's five positional advantages for 2008, three for 1997, and one push.

It's settled: The Giants will win the division in a thrilling fashion! I don't see any problems with my analysis. Nope. No flaws in the methodology, no egregious exclusions. Nothing like that.

Comment starter: What scrub will hit the memorable home run against the Dodger lefty?

0 recs  |  Comment 59 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Re: Serious Analysis
Comment starter: What scrub will hit the memorable home run against the Dodger lefty?

Travis Ishikawa

Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Feb 8, 2008 1:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Clearly, the answer is Eliezer Alfonzo.
When life hands you lemonade, trade it for older, "proven" lemons.

by oneflapdown on Feb 8, 2008 1:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Well, duh. It's got to be Eliezer.

by raisingcain on Feb 8, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Awesome!  I can't wait to see absolutely nobody pumping his fist on the root of the dugout after we win the division!

by Skaldheim on Feb 8, 2008 1:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
LF - Up until then the signing of Barry Bonds had been seen as a total disappointment (Heck, most of the baseball world knew Griffey Jr. was a much better ballplayer).  The almost and complete suckatude that was Barry Lamar had become baseball's second 40/40 man the previous year and failed to live up to expectations this year (40/37) not to mention only won a golden glove because his ability to catch routine balls in the in the non-existant wind of Candlestick Park.  2008 brings in almost certain upgrade in  Dave Roberts.  Sure he will be injured for the first three months, but when he returns it will be magic.

Advantage 2008

Wow, this team sucks.

by WilliamVanLandingham on Feb 8, 2008 1:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Post of the Week, the Month, and Possibly the Year.
Lon Simmons' adopted dad.

by Kitspool on Feb 8, 2008 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
"And there's a deep fly ball to the right of Rowand.  It's deep & off the top of the wall.  Rowand running to his right.  Still running..... still running...."

by ResDog on Feb 8, 2008 1:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Gosh, I have the strangest feeling reading your post, sort of like when I reach down to scratch an itch where my right leg used to be before the grisly snowmo-boarding accident. What? You've never heard of snowmo-boarding?
"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Feb 8, 2008 1:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
You've never heard of snowmo-boarding?

I had a friend who used to do it. Snowmo.

by Grant on Feb 8, 2008 1:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I see what you did... you left out the managers! Do I go with Dusty and his toothpick of wisdom? Or Bochy and his grizzled veteran goatee. I pick Dusty, but it's a close call.

by billiejameshayes on Feb 8, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The spark for 1997
What we're all forgetting is that after the 1996 season, the Giants jettisoned "Wave 'Em Home" Wendell Kim from the third base coaches box.

He joined Boston in 1997 and they went 78-84, finishing in fourth place.

You decide!

by mlb22 on Feb 8, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I couldnt' agree more with your analysis.  I hope that 2008 turns out like 1997 did.  We could shock the league this year just like the Diamond Backs did last year in our division.

I hope Ortmeier and Frandsen are the second coming of Clark and Thompson!  Go Giants!

Go see my Giants blog at http://www.michaelnewjr.com

by Mike New on Feb 8, 2008 2:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
And I hope Bill Gates hands me his ATM card and says "Take whatever you need.  You deserve it."
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick on Feb 8, 2008 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I love to hear this...
That I'm not the only one irrationally looking forward to that combo starting.
And Boom Goes the Dynamite

by Andy from DC on Feb 8, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I love to hear this...
Sometimes irrational optimism is better than no optimism at all.
2008: The year the Giants begin to stop sucking.

by EliminateMe on Feb 8, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I love to hear this...
Sometimes hard-earned pessimism steels you for a season to forget.

Play (something like) Ball!

by Moggeee on Feb 9, 2008 12:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
The obvious answer to the comment starter is Eliezer Alfonso. Catchers save the World on a regular basis.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Feb 8, 2008 2:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Where's the category for the bench?  Any serious analysis needs to examine the role players who didn't get to start.

And how dare you not mention Rich Rodriguez in your bullpen analysis?  Dude was solid.  There are just so many holes in this post.

It's almost like you're deliberately excluding the most important parts.

Nate Schierholtz cannot play third base. Nate Schierholtz cannot play third base. Steve Kline is pretty okay. Nate Schierholtz cannot play third base.

by groug on Feb 8, 2008 2:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

No kidding...
He didn't even factor in Schierholtz playing 3rd. He could definitely provide Mueller-like production!

by UnleashTheGore on Feb 8, 2008 2:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Darwin? And Javier?
And how could Grant forget Danny Darwin?  He had that one major win down the stretch before which we were all wondering, "Why the hell are we starting Danny Darwin?"  And Stan Javier, he had 440 ABs that year, more than Glenallen Hill.
 

by blank on Feb 10, 2008 3:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Interesting analysis, although I think a 50+ point improvement in OPS (2007=.621) for Vizquel at the age of 41 might be asking a bit much.  Plus that Bonds guy was pretty good.

by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Feb 8, 2008 2:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
AND we didn't have Mays Field in 1997, or the Ball Dudes (did we?).  Plus we have Lou Seal now.  And Cha-Cha bowls.  This team is WAY better than 1997.

Even if we only had to field 8 players, we'd still suck.

2002? I'm over it. But I'll never be over Rich Aurilia.

by wjackalope on Feb 8, 2008 2:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Actually Lou Seal made his debut in 1996, so that's the same.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Feb 8, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Unfortunately for Giants fans, the biggest difference between 1997 and 2008 is the fact that the rest of the NL West is somewhat improved in 2008 versus 1997.

The Bums are somewhat better this season than at the same time 11 years ago.Greg Gagne at short, Wilton Guerrero at second and Todd Zeile at third; Raul Mondesi and Todd Hollandsworth in the OF corners and the platoon of Roger Cedeno and Brett Butler in center - these are not lineups that can compare to what the Bums will trot out in 2008.

About the only place the team takes a step down is at first base, and only because Karros had his best season in '97.

I could probably make similar comparisons to the other teams in the West as well (Dante Bichette in Colorado, Greg Vaughn in San Diego).

As much as it would be nice to think the Giants could rise up and surprise people, logic says that the three other teams in the NL West are better prepared to keep the Giants down in 2008.

by Teh Nuschler Face on Feb 8, 2008 3:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Using Those Rose Colored Glasses Again
What if we trade Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Jonathan Sanchez, and a prospect to the White Sox for both Paul Konerko and a healthy Joe Crede who both return to 06 Offensive Form?

Could the following 6 small advantages overcome the following 2 large disadvantages?

Advantage 08 Molina vs 97 Wilkins/Johnson
Advantage 08 Konerko vs 97 Snow
Advantage 08 Crede vs 97 Mueller/Lewis
Advantage 08 Vizquel vs 97 Vizcaino
Advantage 08 Rowand vs 97 Hamilton/Javier
Advantage 08 Schierholtz/Ortmeier vs 97 Hill/Javier

Disadvantage 08 Durham/Frandsen vs 97 Kent
Disadvantage 08 Lewis/Davis vs 97 Bonds
   

by giantsrainman on Feb 8, 2008 3:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Using Those Rose Colored Glasses Again
I hate to pee in the lemonade bowl here but do you really think a  over 750 OPS season is that likely from Crede in `08? At least Mueller had a 797 OPS in `97. So that would be advantage `97 squad.  I have to admit with Konerko through  '10  being the center piece returning it does get more interesting to think about for both this season and the next couple seasons.

by daveinexile on Feb 8, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I guess you left off the obvious. That guy in LF back then was pretty good.

BTW wasn't Fred Mcgriff's HR back in 93'. If I rememebr correctly it was right after Atlanta got him, and right before the all-star game. It kind of catipulted the Braves. Thanks grant, now Im feeling suicidal again.

Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Feb 8, 2008 3:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I was going to say, I thought there was one missing. But then I realized that might be intentional.

by rocketdog on Feb 8, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Yeah, it's gotta be Turk.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Feb 8, 2008 4:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
One thing is missing from this 2008 team that was on the 1997 team.  The best player in the National League
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you

by milesntrane on Feb 8, 2008 5:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
No, I mentioned Mark Lewis.

by Grant on Feb 8, 2008 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Nice. Was that one cued up or off the cuff?

I'm kind of hoping that you built the entire column backwards knowing that you'd get to say, "No, I mentioned Mark Lewis."

by hammystyle on Feb 8, 2008 6:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Grant,

Do you ever, when writing these main page posts, make bets with yourself on how many people will miss the joke?  And if so, what was the over/under for this post?  Currently, I count 2 or 3, depending on how much credit you're willing to give.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Feb 8, 2008 5:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I nearly fell in the hole myself, but then I figured it out at the last possible second.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Feb 8, 2008 6:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Yeah, I was like, "HEY YOU FORGOT LEFT... Oh."
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Feb 8, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We do Serious Analysis
It's been ten months since Grant felt the rush of optimism.

He gets testy just about this time of year, every year.

by Moggeee on Feb 9, 2008 1:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I actually thought this one was pretty transparent, dang it.

by Grant on Feb 9, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I thought the reference to 1997's "internet baseball nerd consortium" was the hidden joke since McC is only five years old.

Besides, transparent suits you...especially something lacey.

I'm Goofus McPenisbutter and I approve this message.

by Goofus on Feb 9, 2008 9:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
No, the internet nerd consortium dates back to the early days of the Giants Newsgroup. Ask ol' Zen Bitz. He'll drop some mad science on you.

by Grant on Feb 9, 2008 1:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
If I wasn't a part of things back then, it really doesn't count, now does it?
I'm Goofus McPenisbutter and I approve this message.

by Goofus on Feb 9, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Wow a name drop.  But, chya, I remember the halcyon days when Brian Sabean defenders would be assailed with THIS IS THE MAN WHO TRADED FOR JT SNOW.

by zenbitz on Feb 9, 2008 7:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I thought it was too, but the internet never ceases to amaze me.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Feb 9, 2008 10:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I, ummm, yeah... me too. I even saw it coming. I didn't almost yell at you or anything....
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Feb 9, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Giant scrub who will burn the Dodgers: Travis Denker.
Gatta love The Denker.
Defender of Noah Lowry.

by Kid Fresh on Feb 8, 2008 5:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
that's . . . what  . . .  she said?
Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Feb 8, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Coming to you from the Land of Many Beers

by WalrusMan on Feb 9, 2008 10:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Dave Roberts will hit his...let's be generous...his third home run of the year in September, in Los Angeles, mathematically eliminating them from postseason contention.

This will cause nightmares that go all the way until the following opening day, as we imagine yet another season where Not Dave Roberts is sitting on the bench.

Aurilia sounds like a planet out of StarFox.

by Gabafnerhagen on Feb 8, 2008 7:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
My pick is John Bowker when he gets a call-up around August.  

Then again, if we're comparing pitching staffs, the 1997 bunch was a ragtime band.  This 2008 group could be the Red Hot Chili Peppers.  Only problem is, the hitters should be nicknamed Low Tide.

it's always noonan somewhere

by sectionop92 on Feb 8, 2008 7:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Wait, Barry Bonds played for the Giants?
I think you should write a post about William Roger Clemen's wife.

by Mrbasepaul on Feb 8, 2008 9:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Who eliminates the Fodgers?
To answer the comment starter: the person has to be an unheralded catcher previously in the minors or bouncing around the periphery of the majors. Given Sabean's trading acumen, it won't be a catcher he trades for, so it has to be someone in-house. Therefore, the inescapable conclusion is that, with Brian Johnson sitting in the owner's suite, the Dodgers will be eliminated from the pennant chase on Friday, Sept. 26th at AT&T Park by a seventh-inning homerun off the bat of catcher Steven Holm.
"I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense." -Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory

by Lyle on Feb 9, 2008 8:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
2008 - 1997 = 11.  Unfortunately, the 2008 Giants will win even fewer than 11 games less than the 1997 Giants.

The Giants' minor leagues -- particularly the low minors -- will however be about 11 games per team better.

by sharksrog on Feb 9, 2008 1:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Who pulls an Ortmeier?
Mike Sweeney

by chefasaurus on Feb 10, 2008 1:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Let's get Serious, Serious, ... Let's get into Serious. Let me hear your body talk.

by Whipping Boy on Feb 10, 2008 4:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
ok, then pull my finger. Go ahead I triple dog dare ya.

by daveinexile on Feb 10, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
Mc Cov. is the funniest ass site in the planet.

by Whipping Boy on Feb 11, 2008 2:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I dunno. I've been to many ass sites, and there are quite a few comparable ones.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Feb 12, 2008 8:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Serious Analysis
I've been to a number of them as well. I have to say that while they all have their advantages over this place, none beat it for laughs.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Feb 12, 2008 8:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We Came, We Saw, We Beat It
Howie, you should KNOW we don't beat it for laughs.

We beat it because it's a dead horse.

by Moggeee on Feb 14, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about San Francisco Giants.
Start posting about the Giants »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Dnw_small
MCC Recipe Swap & Food Talk Jamboree
Small
What I Would Do With the Roster

Recent FanPosts

Small
Lincecum's Ks - A Very Basic Question on Judgement of Pitching Savvy
Small
Could the Giants get any Compensation Picks?
Shadow_grad_small
We're interested in Uggla...
Lucy-liu_small
Giants add four to 40-man roster
Timmy_avatar_small
Expansion Teams / Relocation Discussion
Howtheyscoredcat_small
Lincecum Arbitration Results Prediction Thread!
Panda_bubble_small
First Baseman of the future
Timmy_avatar_small
Downloadable Game Broadcasts?
29x2_small
All-time favorite SF Giants: closer
Small
Would you trade Jeremy Affeldt?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Overlord

174246766_ea2fd78204_small Grant

Minions

Fawlty_small WalrusMan

Dog2_small kenshin1

Lincecum_small Natto

Howtheyscoredcat_small howtheyscored

Goofus_small Goofus

Det_7193_small jponry

Minor League Guru

Small steve S