Angry Blog Post

I had two choices. I could go with the fake spring training story, or sob about this article:
Reporter: Nice. What do you call this strategy?
Sabean: The Aristocrats!
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Re: Angry Blog Post
by jponry on Feb 20, 2008 2:04 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
"Right-hander Henry Sosa, one of the most promising pitchers in the Giants system, had surgery after last season to repair a torn patella tendon in his left knee. Sosa is throwing but he will not take part in the organization's minor league mini-camp, trainer Dave Groeschner said. If all goes well, Sosa could be cleared to compete in mid-April.
Sosa was the Giants' World Team representative in the All-Star Futures Game last July."
At least he should be back in April.
http://www.mercurynews.com/giantsheadlines/ci_8302356
by sfgreg on Feb 20, 2008 2:08 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
by Evan on
Feb 20, 2008 2:24 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
That being said, we're not getting him while still holding on to Lowry, Sanchez, Lewis, Davis and Schierholz (I know I botched the spelling). Let's face it, we don't have anything else. Surprisingly the Sox haven't bitten on the Roberts and Durham for Crede package. I like Lewis and it's laughable that despite everything that's been said, we're on the verge of sending another prospect for an injury-riddled veteran but, if the deal has to happen, I'm glad we're holding on to our pitching.
by saveuszito on Feb 20, 2008 2:12 PM PST 0 recs
Why...
by kenshin1 on
Feb 20, 2008 2:23 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
by Evan on
Feb 20, 2008 2:27 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
Just not enough to trade any sort of value.
by Grant on
Feb 20, 2008 3:37 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
by prospecthound on
Feb 20, 2008 5:09 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
If someone decides in late July that Fred Lewis will not be leading us to the Promised Land of multiple championships, then fine. The fact that these discussions are happening before the first ST game is nauseating.
by Kitspool on Feb 20, 2008 2:31 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
by Scottsdale on Feb 20, 2008 2:33 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Feb 20, 2008 2:40 PM PST
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20 HR Power from Nate?
by WalrusMan on
Feb 20, 2008 9:56 PM PST
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Re: 20 HR Power from Nate?
by groug on
Feb 20, 2008 10:07 PM PST
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Yes...
by WalrusMan on
Feb 20, 2008 10:31 PM PST
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The seroius answer...
by WalrusMan on
Feb 20, 2008 10:33 PM PST
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Re: The seroius answer...
There is no way that he projects as having more power than Nate.
by groug on
Feb 20, 2008 10:39 PM PST
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Re: The seroius answer...
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Feb 20, 2008 11:37 PM PST
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um...
Look, I realize Freddie has many friends around here, but the reality is that between him, Roberts, and Davis, he will get only very limited ABs (and that's not even factoring Schierholtz into the situation!). He did pretty well last year, but I think it's nothing but wishful thinking if anyone thinks he'll become an above average outfielder.
It seems to me that it would be a positive thing to trade a player that probably won't be anything other than average who plays a position that they have huge depth at so they can give Crede a try on our very offensively limited infield. If nothing else it gets Nate closer to the majors and gives Davis more ABs. And don't forget Fairley (sp?) will hopefully be coming up the ranks in the near future, who seems to be Freddy, version 1.3
by UnleashTheGore on Feb 20, 2008 2:39 PM PST 0 recs
Re: um...
by zenbitz on
Feb 20, 2008 2:51 PM PST
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Re: um...
by jponry on
Feb 20, 2008 3:02 PM PST
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Re: um...
by zenbitz on
Feb 20, 2008 3:30 PM PST
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What awful numbers?
He doesn't appear in MGL's top 3 3b in the AL in 2007, but he doesn't appear in the bottom 3 either.
by rfloh on
Feb 20, 2008 10:43 PM PST
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Re: What awful numbers?
I'd trade Durham for him, though.
by wcw on
Feb 20, 2008 11:30 PM PST
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Re: um...
The only reason there's huge depth in the outfield is that Sabean keeps bringing in veterans on the downhill side of their careers(Roberts, most egregiously). Dumping Lewis to bring in another veteran on the downhill side of his career would be compounding the error.
by Evan on
Feb 20, 2008 3:01 PM PST
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Re: um...
by UnleashTheGore on
Feb 20, 2008 5:06 PM PST
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How about this one....
We will give up talent to acquire him and invariably he will start off the season on a 1 month hot streak. Since the management has no idea what "results-based analysis" is or why it is important to avoid it, we will end up signing him to a multi-year contract. The next Giants GM will then be saddled with yet another aged, overpaid, and non-productive player courtesy of the current brain trust.
by kenshin1 on
Feb 20, 2008 3:11 PM PST
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Re: How about this one....
by Aadik on
Feb 20, 2008 3:40 PM PST
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Re: How about this one....
Thats what scares me the most. The Merc article even hints that the Giants might try to lock Crede up long term.
Ugh.
by xanthan on
Feb 20, 2008 3:42 PM PST
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I don't get it...
Also, am I wrong in thinking that Crede and Feliz are essentially the same player? Crede has somewhat better hitting numbers, but I suspect that the tradeoff between US Cellular Field and Mays Field has something to do with that.
If Crede and Feliz are basically the same guy, then it seems like the question ends up being a choice between the draft pick the Giants will get via the Phillies signing Feliz, and whoever the Giants would trade to get Crede, be it Lewis or Sanchez or whoever else.
by tobias on
Feb 20, 2008 6:27 PM PST
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Re: I don't get it...
You're right. Crede and Feliz are basically the same type of player. Poor OBP's, low BA's, good for about 20 HRS a year, and play a good third base.
Check out their career lines, and Crede has had the benefit of hitting in a park thats helped hitters.
Crede - .259/.305/.446
Feliz - 252/.288/.433
I just don't get a Crede pick up for the Giants, unless he comes cheap.
by xanthan on
Feb 20, 2008 7:11 PM PST
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Yup.
Crede is a better offensive player, probably 10-15 runs or so better. Feliz is a slightly better defensive player, maybe 5 runs better.
That is if Crede is healthy.
by rfloh on
Feb 20, 2008 10:48 PM PST
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Re: Yup.
Crede's bat -- if his back is healthy, which is not guaranteed -- is 5 to 10 runs better per year than Feliz's. Feliz's glove is superb, which is to say, perhaps the same 5 to 10 runs better than a my-back-magically-healed Crede's.
They're equivalent players. Except Crede is riskier and more expensive.
by wcw on
Feb 20, 2008 11:35 PM PST
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I adjusted for park.
Since the point of this is IF Crede is healthy, I'm ignoring his 2007, and just looking at his 2004-2006.
I'm using a simple 5-4-3 weighting system, with 5 being the most recent year, 2007 for Feliz, 2006 for Crede.
Using BPro's stats, ie batting runs above avearage, and a 5-4-3 weighting for 2006-2004, Crede is around 4 runs below average.
Feliz, using the same weightings, and BPro's stats, is around 14 runs below average.
Using BBRef' stats, ie linear weighted Batting Runs, 5-4-3 weighting, Crede is around 3 runs below average.
Feliz, about 19 runs below average.
So using a simple 5-4-3 weighting, a healthy Crede is 10 runs better than Feliz by BPro, 16 runs better by linear weighted batting runs. 10-16 runs.
If you use just a straight average, the gap narrows somewhat, to around 10 runs in favour of Crede.
Feliz using BPro's stats, EQA adjusted to average, has averaged around 13 runs below average. Using BBRef's stats, ie linear weighted Batting Runs, has averaged around 18 runs below average.
Crede last 3 years prior to 2007, has averaged aroun d 5-7 runs below average.
8-10 runs difference offensively.
As for D, if you want to argue, 5-10 runs instead of 5, I'm not going to disagree, the defensive metrics are not precise enough, in my opinion, to argue about a difference of a few runs.
by rfloh on
Feb 21, 2008 8:18 AM PST
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Re: I adjusted for park.
by Lyle on
Feb 21, 2008 12:03 PM PST
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Re: I adjusted for park.
Joe Crede: He's less below-average than Feliz!
by Goofus on
Feb 21, 2008 2:43 PM PST
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Re: um...
Trading Lewis for a one-year, thirty-something rental? Bad idea. Horrible, horrible idea.
The Giants would be a better team with Crede. The Giants would still be an awful team with little-to-no chance at the playoffs with Crede. Trading anything more than a token player -- like when the Giants got David Hasselhoff's cousin in a trade -- would be a joke for a team in the Giants' situation.
by Grant on
Feb 20, 2008 3:26 PM PST
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Re: um...
by UnleashTheGore on
Feb 20, 2008 5:03 PM PST
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Re: um...
The Giants have to think in those terms if they don't want to just swim around the 75-win shallow end for the rest of their existence.
And trust me, I've never been a huge Lewis backer. He has a chance to be average, with a small chance to be more.
by Grant on
Feb 20, 2008 5:22 PM PST
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Re: um...
Crede's a better gamble than Lewis. In his last healthy year in 06 (age 28 season) Crede hit .283/.323/.506, well above average for a 3 Bagger. Lewis needs to hit substantially better than that to be an above average left fielder. Crede is coming off back sugery and after Alfonso we're all more than a little gun shy on this issue, but I should point out that Crede just had a couple herniated discs- it could have a long term effect, but it isn't really in the same catagory as the cronic lower back issues Alfonso had, and that traditionally is like crytonite to power hitters. He could actually be healthy. or not.
The point is, that though there's no such thing as minor back surgery, Crede has probably as much chance (probably more) of regaining his health and resuming his proven above average 3B production as Fred Lewis will ever have providing above average numbers for a corner outfielder. Both are gambles. If all Crede costs the team is Fred Lewis, or a raw but gifted minor league hurler, it may be worth the gamble. It would be a tougher gamble if Crede was owed money beyond 08, It would be a stupid gamble if it cost a real trade chip like Lowry or Sanchez. It would be short sided if we had anything in the farm at hot corner. But I couldn't care less if they dropped 5.1 mil in 08 dollars on Francis the Talking Mule., we aren't and we don't. And please, before anyone says they prefer a youth movement and mentions Leone, remember that Crede is a year younger than Leone.
by prospecthound on
Feb 20, 2008 8:15 PM PST
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Re: um...
It isn't worth giving up one of the three majors-ready players in the organization.
by Grant on
Feb 20, 2008 9:02 PM PST
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Re: um...
by prospecthound on
Feb 21, 2008 8:41 AM PST
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Re: um...
What if Crede actually becomes an average fielder and is relatively healthy? The Giants could sign him to a contract after this year (remember: assuming he plays average), and he could theoretically be part of getting the Giants to the World Series?
I realize they could also just keep Lewis and sign Crede after '08 if it's deemed he's worth it, but maybe he'd give them a hometown discount?
I can see your point and I don't necessarily disagree with it, but I also can see that it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if we gave up an OF that, IMHO, has less than the 20% chance you say of contributing to the next World Series Giants team, in order to upgrade the offense. Plus, giving up Freddy would mean not giving up Sanchez/Lowry, which is also a plus (I realize that doing it for that reason alone is moronic, but it's at least a silver lining).
by UnleashTheGore on
Feb 21, 2008 9:51 AM PST
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Err, the year you picked
His career OPS+ is 92. Year by year OPS+, since he became a full time starter, beginning 2003, 92, 83, 96, 107, 49.
Pedro Feliz' career OPS+ is 84.
Even if you disregard the 49, that's a well above average hitter as a 3b?
The upside to Crede is you get a player who is somewhat better than Pedro Feliz offensively, around 10-15 runs, slightly worse defensively, around 5 runs.
That is if Crede is healthy.
by rfloh on
Feb 20, 2008 10:56 PM PST
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Re: Err, the year you picked
by prospecthound on
Feb 21, 2008 8:31 AM PST
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Yeah, it is the most relevant benchmark
Using a simple 5-4-3 weighting, with 2006 getting a weighting of 5, 2005 a weighting of 4, 2004 a weighting of 3, he comes out to be around 3-4 runs below league average offensively.
A typical 3b is around league average or thereabouts.
by rfloh on
Feb 21, 2008 8:58 AM PST
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Re: Err, the year you picked
Last year's PECOTA cards are still up, so you can see the most likely path for Crede's future as of the spring of 2007, with no knowledge of the back problems or miserable hitting to come. In other words, this is the optimistic, full-recovery scenario. This projects him as a consistent .268/.325/.465 hitter from 2008-10.
Useful? Sure. Better than watching Rich Aurilia? Yeah. A difference-maker? Very unlikely. A long-term solution? No way.
by Evan on
Feb 21, 2008 9:27 AM PST
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Re: Err, the year you picked
by prospecthound on
Feb 21, 2008 1:53 PM PST
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Re: Err, the year you picked
by Evan on
Feb 21, 2008 1:59 PM PST
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Re: Err, the year you picked
by groug on
Feb 21, 2008 2:06 PM PST
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Nice Aristocrats Reference
Here's what I don't understand, as much as I want to:
-Lewis/Davis are out of options.
-Sabes/Boch will never DFA a vet with a season on his contract when there's a glimmer of a chance (in their minds) he might have some savy left. That means Roberts stays.
-Lewis has a higher upside than Davis in terms of power.
Would people prefer to see Freddie go Stale on the bench? Would they prefer to see Rajai DFA'd, even though he's the only one with any change to get platoon time w/Roberts?
I don't have the answers. It hurts the head to know that they'd rather have Roberts play than Lewis, but the fact is they would.
This ramble is over. I don't think I made a point.
by Andy from DC on Feb 20, 2008 3:15 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Feb 20, 2008 3:38 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
Anyway, I highly doubt Lewis will be dealt for Crede. I doubt anyone of significance will be, actually. I'm sure I'll look pretty dumb when Lowry is shipped off for him, but until then...
by One Flap Down on Feb 20, 2008 3:38 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Angry Blog Post
by xanthan on
Feb 20, 2008 3:44 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
Omar was resigned, but of the SS options available in house and on the FA market, I don't consider this a bad move or screwing the team in the future.
Rowand was signed, but he is relatively young and productive. Overpaid? Sure. But I think that's going to have to happen for a year or two since competing wasn't an option.
No young players traded, young players actually given a chance to compete (for now, hopefully play), no terrible older player signed to a multi-year deal and Feliz gone!
I know Sabean made some bad moves in the past, but I think that came from the top and was the right strategy with the win-now ideal. It worked for a few years, didn't for the past couple. I think everyone is being too hard on Sabean right now. (I can't believe you guys turned me into a Sabean apologist. I hope you guys are ashamed of yourselves).
by One Flap Down on
Feb 20, 2008 3:55 PM PST
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So basically...
Sure he did this which is like what he usually does.
And sure he did this which is like what he usually does.
But I don't think Sabean did what he usually does.
by WalrusMan on
Feb 20, 2008 10:01 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
by BlackDougal on
Feb 20, 2008 5:17 PM PST
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Re: Angry Blog Post
There is nothing that bothers me more right now than the prospect of Bengie batting clean-up.
I wish there were better options.
by marklar on Feb 20, 2008 3:38 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Crede hitting 4th?
by daveinexile on
Feb 20, 2008 3:46 PM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
Probably with both hands, but he should be careful, he might blow out his back again.
by xanthan on
Feb 20, 2008 3:47 PM PST
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* golf clap*
by daveinexile on
Feb 20, 2008 3:50 PM PST
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* golf clap*
by Moggeee on
Feb 20, 2008 6:14 PM PST
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Re: * golf clap*
by E Ticket on
Feb 20, 2008 7:18 PM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
by marklar on
Feb 20, 2008 4:01 PM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
by marklar on
Feb 20, 2008 4:07 PM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
As Xanthan stated I am not looking forward to Molina as a hart of the order bat. But there is some logic behind.(Weather I like or agree with the logic is a different story but the logic is there.) I just keep seeing this assumption that Crede can move directly into the hart of the order and I cringe because not enough people seem to be questioning the assumption.
If one removes his career year he loses 71 P.A.`s out his career 152 P.A.`s out of the bottom of the order. The reason I mention this is if one wants to think his worst season is an aberration then lessoning the value of his best season is an accepted way ( kicked out the highest & lowest value in a sample pool then use the remaining data) of gauging what is value might be. He is a huge risk in the hart of the order. A risk at least on the magnitude of trusting one of the younger guys.
Rant over and please don't think its aimed at you for its not.
by daveinexile on
Feb 22, 2008 12:28 PM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
Speed and defense, and Molina batting clean-up, are contradictory. Essentially we are being told that the Giants will have an alternative approach to winning games; a non-traditional approach. And then they turn around and do the most traditional thing they can by batting Molina 4th.
If you are going to play small ball, why set up your line-up like you are still waiting for the 3-run homer? If you are playing small ball Crede, Schierholtz, Ortmeier, Rowand, or just about anybody on this team would be better in the clean-up spot than Molina.
So basically, all that I'm saying is, given the small ball approach, Crede would be preferred over Molina IMO. As I said in another post, if it were up to me I would put Nate there, but you and I both know that management isn't going to do that, and we will be lucky if Nate gets very many ABs as it is.
by marklar on
Feb 25, 2008 8:45 AM PST
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Re: Crede hitting 4th?
My question is what to does anyone see ( besides he is not Molina) that makes them think Crede is a better choice here? Crede is not particularly fast ( the speed of Pedro to my eyes) though that is faster then the squatting glacier. Molina has 420 P.A's batting 5th in his career ( 303/340/ 496 - ba/opb/slg) as opposed to Crede's 121 P.A.'s batting 5th ( 319/355 /496 - ba/opb/slg ). ( Keep in mind 67 of these P.A's were in his career year so values are a bit higher as a result.) Molina has 486 of his 3654 P.A.'s ( about 13%) above the 6th hole Crede has 152 of his 2637 P.A's ( about 6%) above the 6th spot. Is there anything, batting related, someone can point to that is definitively in Crede's corner over Molina? I am more then wiling to change my stance if I can be shown were I missed some facts.
As for the line up it will be ugly. They just don't have the skill sets to do much more then half a line up in any fashion. Which then l



