It burns....
by Grant on Feb 18, 2008 1:45 PM PST
in News
115 comments
The headline: Giants' motto: Without HRs, it's run, run, run
The article: The Giants don't really have a bunch of speed demons, but they're probably going to try and steal a bunch of bases anyways.
What's in the mind of the optimists in Giants Town: The 1985 Cardinals, who only had one hitter with more than twenty homers, but who managed to win 100 games with the help of a great pitching staff and a fast, fast team.
What they're forgetting: That twenty-plus homers was enough to crack the top ten in the 1985 N.L. It's a good idea to start reminiscing about 1985, but not about the Cardinals.
What they're also forgetting: That the Cards had at least one great hitter in Jack Clark. His OPS+ would be the equivalent of a .332/.410/.570 hitter today; in other words, one of the best hitters in the league. Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols, for example.
What they're also, also forgetting: That Willie McGee went goofy on the league, hitting .353/.384/.503 in a season where the league average was .252/.319/.374, and winning the MVP. That's two great seasons in the same lineup.
What they're also, also, also forgetting: That Vince Coleman stole over 100 bases at a high percentage. Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis are fast, but...yeah.
It isn't crazy to think a powerless-yet-speedy team with a fantastic pitching staff can contend. But the Cardinals had good hitters. Yes, they ran around the bases like it was the end of a Benny Hill show, but five of their eight hitters had an on-base percentage above the league average, and they had at least two great hitters in 1985.
So here's my bit of optimism: If Aaron Rowand hits .335/.410/.550, Randy Winn hits .300/.370/.490, Kevin Frandsen hits .330/.380/.440, Ray Durham hits .280/.360/.470, Rajai Davis and Dave Roberts combine to steal 100 bases, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are among the league leaders in ERA, and the bullpen combines to be a late-innings force, then, yes, the Giants can also win 100 games.
Also, if Charles Manson is released from prison and starts dating my wife, there's a chance that I'll raise Charles Manson's kid without knowing it. That'd be weird. But it could happen.
I'm excited about the young pitching. I'm excited about the chance that a young hitter or two will exceed expectations. I'm excited that baseball is starting up. I'm not excited about a bad offensive team with mediocre speed trying to steal a bunch of bases and lay down bunts.
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Re: It burns....
Randy Winn has been a terrible base stealer for his career. Omar is going to 40 years old. Rowand has never stolen more than 17 bags a year. He's also going to be turning 30 and I've never considered him to have great speed.
This year is going to be interesting but I can't help but shake the feeling that Giants management keeps trying to sell us the "NEW GIANTS" based on a bunch of nonsense.
by xanthan on Feb 18, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Feb 18, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just Imagine.....
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 18, 2008 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fred Lewis
by Sigualicious on Feb 18, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fred Lewis
Of course, that complaint covers just about every Giant position player.
by Bhaakon on Feb 18, 2008 9:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fred Lewis
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by jponry on Feb 18, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by xanthan on Feb 18, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"is"?
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Feb 18, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Just what I always dreamed of, a #4 hitter that can make contact...
by brianando on Feb 18, 2008 2:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Oh god, I can already see it happening.
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 2:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by jponry on Feb 18, 2008 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Woody Wins on Feb 18, 2008 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Thats the company line this year. Which is beginning to piss me off to no end. Thats the theme.
"We suck and its Bonds Fault."
Fucking communists.
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Scary
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Feb 18, 2008 2:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
how about 1984?
by wcw on Feb 18, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Current leader in the "understatement of 2008" category? I always enjoy Shulman. I guess that qualifies me as a homer.
Other then that Omar can't possible hit any were above 7, even on this squad, until his OBP gets up to near Tony Gwynn's career batting average. In the interest of spring training positivism I'll refrain from listing the number of 40 year old I've seen that can run well enough to play with 20 something's.
As for the concept in general they currently don't have the players for that type of ball. The have few but mostly not. It annoys me that the front office figures the fan base definition of a "running/speed" team is lack of home runs. That's it. It does not bode well for this season being anything more then 9 monkeys trying to hump a greased football - at the same time.
by daveinexile on Feb 18, 2008 2:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
If they call up Velez that will help as well.
I'm sure whoever has Jason Ellison would be willing to part with him? Me loves my speedy mediocre outfielders!
by UnleashTheGore on Feb 18, 2008 2:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Feb 18, 2008 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by UnleashTheGore on Feb 18, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by oldrips on Feb 18, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Adding racing wheels
I'd also like to see Winn move to 1B and let Lewis start in RF full-time. If Lewis fails, call up Nate.
I'd also hit Rowand #4 (and Benjie #5), just so he can run in front of Molina.
These three adjustments would make the Giants a much more legit running team, more interesting to watch and give us a better idea about some of the youngins':
Roberts/Davis
Velez
Winn
Rowand
Molina
Lewis (or Schierholtz)
Vizquel
Frandsen
My work here is done.
by Goofus on Feb 18, 2008 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Feb 18, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now that's some audacity for hope
by daveinexile on Feb 18, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
LineUp:
Lewis/Davis LF
Velez 2B
Schierholtz/Ortmeier 1B
Rowand CF
Winn RF
Molina C
Frandsen 3B
Vizquel SS
Bench:
Alfonzo C
Aurilia IF
Durham IF
Roberts OF
Ortmeier/Schierholtz 1B/OF
Davis/Lewis OF
Yeah, I would go with just 6 relievers (11 man pitching staff) and therefore 6 position player bench spots.
by giantsrainman on Feb 18, 2008 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
He has no plate discipline, so he draws few walks, and a low OBP. He has no power. He has no speed. And he's a mediocre fielder at best. Basically Pedro Feliz without power and without a glove and without an arm.
He is a nepotism roster spot in the mold of Lance Niekro except Niekro had more pop. He is JT Snow without plate discipline, glove, or even power and about 50 percent of the cute-ass drawing power.
If you're MLB running a telethon for "physically challenged" infielders, Kevin's your boy. Frandsen is the poster child for the Giants Farms System Version of "Jerry's Kids".
Frandsen if he gets real hot, may hit .290 with no obp and no power. Just grand. Sure enough to make me forget about Barry Bonds.
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 6:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by giantsrainman on Feb 18, 2008 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by WalrusMan on Feb 18, 2008 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 8:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by Smoke on the Water on Feb 18, 2008 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by drysdalecousin on Feb 18, 2008 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by drysdalecousin on Feb 18, 2008 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
...which means squat unless the swagger is a magic elixir that turns the drinker into Chase Utley.
by scotterduder on Feb 19, 2008 12:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by Lyle on Feb 19, 2008 2:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rolling around with an inflatable Straw man
by daveinexile on Feb 19, 2008 10:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by jasomack on Feb 18, 2008 10:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
Last winter Kevin stated his goal as getting more pitches he could drive. It is possible that by September he had begun to accomplish that goal.
In the season's final month, Kevin's pitches per at bat took a noticeable jump -- as did his OPS, to over .900 for the month.
by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2008 6:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by xanthan on Feb 19, 2008 6:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
by xanthan on Feb 19, 2008 7:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adding racing wheels
Last year Frandsen hit into a double play about once every 15 ABs. Ichiro hit into one double play every 347 AB.
Dood hit into 20 Dps in a measely 264 ABs
Ichiro hit into 2 Dps in 695 Abs
Its one thing to be a pretty good AAA player amongst the AAA generation (about a 3 year span which only includes players playing in the PCL or IL). It is quite another to be a competent major leaguer when competing against the best players of every generation, (about a 15 year span which includes all the best players from every level.
That is why it is no surefire thing. Major Leaguers don't cycle through every 1-3 years like they do in the different levels of the minors. That is something the Giants haven't mangaged to figure out in any empirical sense at least.
Pitching is different and easier to project. A hitter gets maybe 4 ABs per game to establish a rhythm or pattern for evaluation purposes. A pitcher gets at least that many chances per inning. Oversimplified explanation, but you get the idea.
by E Ticket on Feb 19, 2008 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 1985 Cardinals?
But Aaron "Warrior Spirit" Rowand is no Homer "Doc" Snoot.
by chefasaurus on Feb 18, 2008 2:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Oh, and the assertion that Molina is a great contact hitter made me chuckle. I didn't know Tony Gwynn was playing catcher for us.
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 8:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Smoke on the Water on Feb 18, 2008 2:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by kennv on Feb 18, 2008 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Smoke on the Water on Feb 18, 2008 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by senorvegas on Feb 18, 2008 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by jasomack on Feb 18, 2008 10:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
1)Running into a lot of outs will shorten the games.
2)The old-timers are more likely to injure themselves running, leading to a quicker transition to playing the youngsters.
by NearestNorwich on Feb 18, 2008 2:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Speed
And then there is speed from the defensive side: the ability to run down balls, cut off balls in the alley etc
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 2:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Speed
by xanthan on Feb 18, 2008 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SF has some decent hitters
- Roberts is a platoon player and should be played that way. Has nice OBP and can steal
- Frandsen is a solid OBP and can handle the bat well
- Winn had 42 doubles and hit .300
- Rowand is a perfect fit in the line-up mixing extra base power with base running ability
- Molina is money
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: SF has some decent hitters
by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2008 6:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Speed
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes We Can!
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mr. Optimism , let me buy you a beer.
by victor frankenstein on Feb 18, 2008 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
The Giants team OPS last year was .709. Like a good "run first no power" team, their team SLG was under .400 (.387). You want the OBP to be able to get the OPS even remotely close to .800. We'll say .770 (which, btw, was the team OPS of the worst team in baseball last year by record). The Giants team OBP, even proposing the SLG goes up to an even .400 (why? no good reason), has to improve by AT LEAST 50 points to get where we want to be.
To even OPS .770, in other words, the Giants team OBP has to exceed the team OBP of last year's World Series winning team. In order to play fundamental baseball, the Giants team OBP has to be better than the Red Sox. And we have to do that with Molina, Vizquel, Durham, and Aurilia all getting regular at bats (none of whom OBP'd higher than .305 last season). Goodie. I like our chances!
Fundamental baseball is a nice line, but it means nothing if your team can't hit. And mostly, our team can't hit.
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 5:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Getting on base is key
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Getting on base is key
------------------------------------------------
You cannot "learn" to spray balls all over the field in the major leagues if you
- cannot recognize a pitch
- have no plate discipline
- have no prior experience in doing so
I could go on, but I doubt you even understand the first three.
Go ahead be a fan. But there is no reason to spew ridiculous propaganda on behalf of San Francisco Baseball Associates LP and MSM.
Its clearly just a simple regurgitation of a poorly written "fill in the blanks" press releases that could have been written about any team in any league at any level at any time.
Hopefully most of the readers here know better than to take anything you write along these lines as anything other than what they are and you don't influence some kid who doesn't know any better.
by E Ticket on Feb 18, 2008 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Getting on base is key
by KCDrummer82 on Feb 18, 2008 7:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Getting on base is key
After Carney's first three seasons, his walks were nearly as high as his strikeouts.
by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2008 6:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Getting on base is key
Will Clark stole 67 bases in 115 tries. That's a success rate of 58 percent. When he got caught, he was taking a base runner and an out away from a #4 or #5 hitter in the lineup. Will Clark should not have run. Ever.
by jasomack on Feb 18, 2008 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Running the bases.
One way to have Molina with a better OBP is to not let him wear down as season progresses. To improve his OBP to .315, you would like more walks I would prefer he get more hits. Give Molina a few more off days and keep him fresh and both his BA and OBP should improve. I can see Lewis working with Kelly and improving somewhat even though Freddie's instincts are not the best.
To milk one more season out of the old guys Lanny has a lot of work. I said he is a genius, might need a miracle worker. If the vets can contribute, buy into Bochy's program and hit situationally then SF should be competitive.
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Running the bases.
It's "With regard to."
Regard, also, not plural. One regard. Not two or more.
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Running the bases.
by howtheyscored on Feb 19, 2008 8:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Molina's OPS
If Ray Durham continues to be one of the worst starters in MLB, and continues to be played because Sabean won't admit he made a mistake, if Molina keeps up his 300 OBP, if Omar keeps up his 300 OBP, it will not matter who buys into the program or not.
3 guys with OBPs around 300 will kill offense no matter how fast they are, especially when the rest of the team does not have players with especially high OBPs.
Even with Bonds, the Giants OBP last year was 322.
You can't run if you can't get on base. Well, you can. You can run back to the bench. That is one of the big differences between Juan Pierre and Ichiro.
The Giants will improve if they can improve their OBP, not if they buy into Bochy's program or not.
As to Clark, why did his baserunning knowledge not translate to knowing to not try to steal bases?
by rfloh on Feb 19, 2008 2:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Molina needs more days off
With regard to OBP, last season the Giants had a low OBP yet had many opportunities to score more runs with better situational hitting. Time after time SF left a runner stranded at third base when either a grounder or sacrifice fly would score a run. With the emphasis this spring about team situational hitting I am hoping that the team will pick-up the runner from third and score more runs.
With the Giants being run scoring challenged, the bullpen needs to step up this season. The pen will need to hold onto the tie or lead for the Giants to improve.
by wilriv21 on Feb 19, 2008 4:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet Clark
And there is no indication that Molina will be a better player with days off.
"With regard to OBP, last season the Giants had a low OBP yet had many opportunities to score more runs with better situational hitting. Time after time SF left a runner stranded at third base when either a grounder or sacrifice fly would score a run. With the emphasis this spring about team situational hitting I am hoping that the team will pick-up the runner from third and score more runs."
Last year, the Giants OPS+ was 89. With runners in scoring position, their OPS+ was 96. With 2 outs, RISP, 110. In other words, they hit better with RISP and better with 2 outs RISP.
For comparison, the Phillies, best offense in the NL, 5.51 runs per game, 354 OBP, 111 OPS+. With RISP, the Philies OPS+ was 104. The Phillies actually hit worse than overall, with RISP. With 2 outs, RISP, better, 126.
Clearly, the problem was the Giants situational hitting. No, it clearly was not that the Giants hitting in general was awful, OBP 322 for example.
by rfloh on Feb 19, 2008 6:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Less is more for Molinia
Career wise Molina has only one month that stands out well above a OPS+ 100 that's May at 116. After that its 101 in August, 100 in June and 98 in September /Oct.
The previous 2 seasons ('05 &'06) he was OPS+ 100 & 108. The best offensive production years of his carrier. He also was limited to 117 games with 842 innings in the field games for '06 & 119 games with 873.1 innings in the field for `05. We get to `07 and Molina plays 129 games with 1104 innings on the field ( he career high of play time) and suddenly his numbers dropped back to around averages.
I think those are pretty strong evidence he does play better when rested more then he was last year. How else does one explain that record?
by daveinexile on Feb 19, 2008 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he played
In 2002 and 2003, 122 games and 119 games respectively, OPS+ of 58 and 96 respectively.
Playing a limited amount of games in those years did not appear to improve his performance.
His career OPS in the 1st half is 732. In the 2nd half 705. A 27 point difference in OPS indicate wearing down?
Also, the month by month numbers that you are referring to are not OPS+. They are tOPS+. tOPS+ in this case refers to OPS+ relative to his own splits. A 101 tOPS+ in August means that Molina was 1 percent of his career average OPS in August. This are his month by month career tOPS+: 94, 116, 100, 90, 101, 98.
6 percent worse than career average in April, 16 percent better in May, at career average in June, 10 percent worse in July, 1 percent better in August, 2 percent worse in Sept.
Up, down, up, down. I dunno, but that does not look like a pattern of wearing down to me.
by rfloh on Feb 20, 2008 8:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Well, he played
As for games played in given years this were I love the innings stats ( I take them for the MLB site http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=134260&statType=1 ) because it weeds out DH AB's, points out if a guy players partial games and just general durability of the player. The OPS+ I'll lift from http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/molinbe01.shtml.
Year Innings played OPS+
2000 1092.0 84
2001 781.2 73
2002 1014.1 58
2003 949.2 96
2004 762.0 88
2005 873.1 108
2006 842.0 100
2007 1104.0 86
Playing Molina under 1000 innings ( about 105 full games) does not guarantee a near OPS+ 100 season but in no season that he plays over 1000 innings does he come close. Only one season ( 2001) he played under 1000 innings did his OPS+ below his OPS+ career average( 86) and 2004 was close to his average.
I would not say its conclusive but it does have the signs to me of wearing down or at least a significant point of diminishing returns. If you can show me a different explanation I am more then willing to change my mind.
Off topic request: Does anyone know a good site or method of confirming, or denying, times a player was injured? Memory is a wonderful thing but the older I get the less trust worthy on specifics can be.
by daveinexile on Feb 20, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
by Roger on Feb 19, 2008 8:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
In 1994 with the Niners was it "Let our guys show you how the game is supposed to be played!"? No, it was "Come watch Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Ken Norton Jr., Deion Sanders, Merton Hanks, Tim McDonald, Dana Stubblefield, Brent Jones, Ricky Watters, and Gary Plummer kick the Chargers collective asses in the Super Bowl!"
In sports, you can get people excited about good and great teams by doing nothing more than listing the players on those teams. Fans, even layfans know when a player is really, really good, and when you're talking about that player you only have to say their name, maybe list a HR or SB total, and fans will get excited.
The only time in sports when you have to fall back on rhetoric is when the team or the player is not enough by itself to get fans excited. "Rowand has warrior spirit" is another way of saying "I can't convince you Rowand is good based on his actual merits." Saying "We Believe" (sorry, I am a Warriors fan) is another way of saying "You probably shouldn't believe." Saying "play fundamental baseball" is another way of saying "doesn't play good baseball." Saying "leave it out on the field" is another way of saying "they won't win, so try to enjoy their supposed effort."
You need this kind of rhetoric in sports when you have to get fans and layfans excited about a product or a player that is hard to get excited about. That's why you don't like it. That's why I don't like it. That's why it's a very bad sign ths year that it's all we're hearing.
by howtheyscored on Feb 19, 2008 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
by E Ticket on Feb 19, 2008 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
by howtheyscored on Feb 19, 2008 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yes We Can!
by E Ticket on Feb 19, 2008 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
I had a dream where Dave Roberts just went away. It was a nice dream.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Feb 18, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Roberts/Winn/Molina/Aurilia/Kline/Zito for Mauer/Morneau/Liriano?
Sounds good.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Feb 18, 2008 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by howtheyscored on Feb 18, 2008 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
we'll see how it turns out.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Feb 18, 2008 6:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Adam on Feb 18, 2008 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Roberts
by wilriv21 on Feb 18, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Roberts
by Goofus on Feb 18, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Natto on Feb 18, 2008 6:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Feb 19, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by kennv on Feb 18, 2008 3:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by jponry on Feb 18, 2008 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by kennv on Feb 18, 2008 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Natto on Feb 18, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
To read MSM is one thing.
To take MSM seriously is another.
To talk back to MSM is a serious mental disorder.
by E Ticket on Feb 19, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The sad truth remains...
by beaunose on Feb 18, 2008 3:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by biff pocoroba on Feb 18, 2008 3:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Feb 18, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sale on Outs
Get they while you can! Only three per customer per inning!
by zenbitz on Feb 18, 2008 4:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Considering how much this team will need clutch hits, check out the fascinating Gods and Dogs of hitting study at Hardball Times: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-gods-and-dogs-of-garbage-time
It confirms what we all knew -- Barry was more clutch than most people realize and our blog's patron saint was as good as it gets when the game was tight. And Jeff Kent, well, let's just say it warms my heart...
by NearestNorwich on Feb 18, 2008 5:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Studies of base stealers show that overall they don't help their teams much. As an example, Kelly is lauded because his Augusta team stole 212 bases in 297 attempts, but in actuality, a 70% success rate is about breakeven. In stealing 212 bases in those 297 attempts, Augusta picked up about a net four bases over 70%.
But studies have also shown that the success rate for taking the extra base is FAR above 70%. In fact, it is well into the 80%'s. Until the marginal success rate for taking the extra base falls below 70%, teams should probably be taking more extra bases -- particularly with two outs.
Between the rabid waving arm of Tim Flannery as the third base coach and the more aggressive approach promoted by Kelly, it is indeed possible the Giants will achieve at least a small net gain from their baserunning this season.
by sharksrog on Feb 18, 2008 5:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
That's why I want Roberts around to teach the young guys what Maury Wills taught him about being a base stealer - Roberts has been around the 90% success rate in recent years.
In addition, Baseball Prospectus did a study on factors for success in the playoffs and the surprising thing is that none of the offensive stats were found to correlate strongly with success in the playoffs. Not OPS. Not HR. Not OBP or SLG. The only offensive stat that had a correlation worth noting was Stolen Base Attempts - not success but attempts.
I think the main problem is that people are still expecting the team to be competitive or something in 2008. That would take a lot of good performances from our young players, both position and pitching, which is not highly likely, though I think it's possible.
Get over it. The offense sucks. I think Sabean did what he could given what was available in the free agent market and given that he needed to keep the core young pitchers on our roster and not trade them away, as some here have suggested.
Trading away Cain or Lincecum was not and is not the solution, it would be a short-sighted move just to get competitive in 2008 but would hurt our chances long term: the BP study results was that the keys to success in the playoffs is 1) high K/9 rate, 2) good closer, and 3) good defense (all using BP proprietary metrics).
I heard someone on KNBR said that he was willing to trade pitching because "look at the A's, they had Hudson, Mulder, Zito and couldn't win". The fallacy there is that their collective K/9 rate wasn't that good, plus left out the closer factor - Beane felt that consistency at the closer position was so meaningless that he swapped out closers during that trio's years together, trading off or changing seemingly every year, if I recall right.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 19, 2008 2:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by Roger on Feb 18, 2008 7:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jim Rice was FEARED
by rfloh on Feb 18, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
don't forget
by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 18, 2008 9:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
I'm not saying he won't be a good hitting coach but I don't see any reason to think he will be (and especially not to think that he's going to magically improve our team OBP just by being Carney Lansford.)
by jponry on Feb 19, 2008 2:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Maybe Lansford could have taught Pedro to go the other way!
by xanthan on Feb 19, 2008 5:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by howtheyscored on Feb 19, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
Then again, it might just be him repeating the mantra over and over again. I thought of that the second I submitted.
by jponry on Feb 19, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: It burns....
by blank on Feb 19, 2008 7:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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