“(just turned 33 officially and he’s likely to actually be 32)”

That’s an interesting thing to say, a latin player who is actually younger than his given age? Anyone ever heard about this?

Not Brind

Can you really talk about Renteria giving runs back on defense and then bring up Adam Dunn?

And I don’t think a Renteria signing means a Dunn (or Burrell) signing is impossible.

Wow, thats optomistic for Burriss. I would guess that Burriss never exeeds .270/.325/.350.

You seem to be way too optimistic with regards to Burriss & way too negative with regards to Renteria.

Renteria’s defense wasn’t awful last year, it was just bad. It’s not like he’s 20-30 runs bad, he’s more likely less than 10. And Burriss hasn’t so far looked like a gold glove winner & will likely be no better than average. Renteria had a down year last year (although he still outhit Burriss) but you can’t ignore the OPS of 860 & 797 he put up the previous 2 years (either of which could be the best on the Giants) He’s also a prime candidate to rebound, given that he his peripherals didn’t go down, and he put up a greater than 800 OPS in the second half.

You’re right that Burriss will never exceed that line, but in fact, as other have mentioned, he’ll never get anywhere near that line. When you’re expecting a player to perform at a higher level in the majors than he’s ever done in any season at any level in the minors then that suggests you’re expectations are out of line.

Projections systems aren’t everything, but there’s a reason why Oliver projects them to differ in wOBA by .04 (.331 – .291) & why Bill James projects there to be a gap in OPS of .131 (.795-.664)

is kind of a moo point. We know it was terrible last year, but there pretty big year-to-year variations, and he has not always been terrible (like Dunn). If his defense was GOOD, then he wouldn’t get a 2/$18M contract! He’d get a much longer, richer one. On the flip side, Burriss could be an adequate hitter, but I think ON BALANCE Renteria is a more valuable player in 2009 and probably 2010 as well. Also he is MUCH more likely to fluke out and put up a .320/.380/.420 season. Those are the kind of flukes the Giants need in the next couple years.

Yeah, McCovey Chronicles is well known for drinking the Sabean kool-aid. We’re all Sabean fanboys and girls here.

Thanks for stopping by. As usual you have added nothing to the discussion. I’ll cut and paste what zenbitz wrote for you:

Renteria kinda sucks. However, he’s almost certainly better than Burriss. More to the point, at least for 2009 Renteria has much much more UPSIDE. His defense could bounce back. His bat will probably bounce back. If he’s old and terrible, we can just bring Burriss up again.

The salary is pretty much market value for an average vet shortstop. Now, he was not average last year, but I think he is likely to have some in the tank left. The key is that the deal is only 2 years, and no picks lost which means if he is f-o-r-k done, then we haven’t really sacrificed anything.

What is also important is this is neither a "WIN NOW AT ALL COSTS" move (ca. Bonds years) and not a "FIRE SALE PLAY THE KIDS" move, but it’s a "IMPROVE THE SHORT TERM WITH NO COST TO THE LONG TERM", which is exactly what I think the Giants should be doing. I am not a fan of "tear it down and rebuild" right now, because such an effort essentially wastes the cheap years of Lincecum and Cain.

i love your lack of empirical evidence to back up your claims

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2008/12/4/680250/edgar-renteria-is-probably#10452351

we should have the pitcher bat second so Burriss can lead off. Bochy is an idiot for not doing this already.

says that first and second half splits don’t mean anything or have predicative value. Although, I don’t think this applies to people who are injured in either part of the season or extreme circumstances like that.

oh yeah, he did rebound and put up a good 2008 performance. That was a testament to both Edgar getting back on track and regression.
I also think that you can’t discount first half performance when evaluating how someone did last season, despite how well they do later in the season (e.g. Ryan Howard)