Top 10 MLB prospects

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 12:14 PM PST Comment 47 comments

Just wanting some public opinion on this matter. Who do you guys think are the top 10 prospects in baseball and why.

Does MadBum make your list (doesn't make mine)? I just want to see what people think.

The consensus number 1 for me is Matt Wieters, but beyond him I think there is a lot of room for debate, etc.

So please, feel free to post your personal top 10 with an explanation as to why

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Another question, for statheads who open this...

What is the best way to calculate how much a player is worth on a free agent market?

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 12:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

What is the best way to calculate how much a player is worth on a free agent market?

Find out how much the Giants would pay him and then divide by half.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

btw, sorry for the double question xanthan, I also asked it in the fanshot you posted about the giants 2009 WAR

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In recent free agent markets, players have tended to earn right around $4.8M per replacement win. So, just found out how many wins above replacement a player was worth and multiply it by 4.8 to find their projected salary.

Fred Lewis was worth about +2.6 wins above replacement last season.

2.6*4.8= $11.84M

If Fred Lewis hit the free agent market, he would be worth around $11M.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

simple and easy, just like I like it

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Check out Fangraphs, they have a nice series on the front page today dealing with win values. I think the next post is going to be on valuation.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

found = find

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Except

Fred doesn’t have much chance of repeating that performance.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Dec 30, 2008 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, no one said that was his value moving forward. Just his value from last season.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, no one except for you

:-)

If Fred Lewis hit the free agent market, he would be worth around $11M.

Players get paid for what they’re going to do, not what they have done (or at least that’s how it should work). Fred probably wouldn’t be worth $11M.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Dec 30, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I should have said his 2008 performance would have been valued at $11M. Which is what I meant to say.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wha...? WARP? $11 mil? WOOF!

Is this right? $4.8 mil per win above replacement player?

I wonder , sometimes , whether baseball has worked itself into a state of delirium.

The Blanks give Snyder – a catcher , probably more of a premium position than an OF – 14/3 , or roughly 4.66/yr , but Fred is worth 11?

The man struck out a little more than once every four trips to the plate.

Forty whole RBI! Makes it look like he’s got Bondsitis , a disease where you chronically lead off innings.

Some speed , I guess. Below league fielding , but nice with the eleven assists.

Obviously I have much to learn , to me WARP is WACK.

Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers

by victor frankenstein on Jan 1, 2009 2:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, like Cookyman stated, Fred probably isn’t a true talent +2 win player. Though, there’s a chance he might be. He’s probably worth something closer to $4-6M per season based on true talent.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Jan 1, 2009 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Have to factor in the bunion effect.

Nasty buggers.

That on the crank arm is a notch.

Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers

by victor frankenstein on Jan 1, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's actually $4.8 million per win by Fangraph's Wins over Replacement, not WARP

Fangraphs has a higher replacement bar than WARP does, or did.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Jan 1, 2009 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

this is actually

completely false. Even the very best contracts pay players for what they did. Since players reach FA relatively late in their careers, contracts tend to be based on past/peak production.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Dec 30, 2008 4:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and we currently have two great examples of this on our roster

I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
Jeremy Affeldt Ready To Make His Father Proud

by Giant among Angels on Dec 30, 2008 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re-read my comment

Including the brackets.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Jan 1, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

David Price is also the consensus #1 prospect

I’m using your definition, though.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 30, 2008 12:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think I'd do something like this:

1. DAVID PRICE – SP (Tampa Bay)
2. MATT WIETERS – C (Baltimore)
3. JASON HEYWARD – OF (Atlanta)
4. MADISON BUMGARNER – SP (San Francisco)
5. TRAVIS SNIDER – OF (Toronto)
6. PEDRO ALVAREZ – 3B (Pittsburgh)
7. NEFTALI FELIZ – SP (Texas)
8. COLBY RASMUS – OF (St. Louis)
9. MATT LAPORTA – 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
10. BRETT ANDERSON – SP (Oakland)

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 30, 2008 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Neftali Feliz

Doesn’t he seem like a name the Giants should have?

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

NeifiChicken

Doesn’t that seem like a name the Giants should have?

Molina's gonna test his arm...

by Victorious Secret on Dec 30, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 30, 2008 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll take him … along with Cards prospect Allen Craig and Mets prospect Samuel Taveras.

by StickRat on Dec 30, 2008 1:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Alvarez 6th? HAHAHAHAHA!

by Hobbes2d on Dec 30, 2008 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well… I’d put him in the top 10. Who would you put above MadBum?

Definitely above:
Price
Wieters

Others:
Heyward
Snider
Maybin
Rasmus
Feliz

I’m not really sure who else would go above him. Alvarez? Anderson? Cahill? If he isn’t top 10, he’s damn close.

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 30, 2008 1:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

yeah he's definitely close

Perhaps I just couldn’t be objective enough as a Giants fan

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 30, 2008 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m gonna go with…

1. Price
2. Wieters
3. Heyward
4. Maybin
5. Bumgarner
6. Snider
7. Feliz
8. Rasmus
9. Moustakas
10. LaPorta

by LinceCainGarnerSon on Dec 30, 2008 1:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

1. David Price-because he’s got ace potential and he’s hit the majors already
2. Matt Wieters-impossible to ignore those numbers, but Price gets the edge because he’s more advanced
3. Jason Heyward-only 18 and still mashing against competition a lot older than him
4. Travis Snider-about to crack the majors at the age of 20. That’s pretty apeshit. Solid power and average potential.
5. MadBum-put up better pitching numbers than Heyward did hitting numbers at the same level, but there’s some question as to whether or not those numbers can hold up in a higher level given his predominant use of his fastball.
6.Cameron Maybin- 5-tool player. He can do pretty much everything; he can hit for average, he can hit for some power, he can take walks, he can steal bases, but he can also strike out a ton.
7. Trevor Cahill-great strikeout stuff, knows how to control it. Strikes out a ton of hitters and walks very few.
8.Neftali Feliz- has better strikeout stuff than Cahill, but he also walks more. He’d be higher up if he’d pitched more than 100 innings more than once in his career.
9. Mike Moustakas- Excellent power from a 19 year old at his level, but I’d like to see some more walks.
10. Colby Rasmus- Even better power potential than Moustakas. Takes a lot of walks, but also strikes out a good amount. He had a bad year, though, which set him back on my list.

Question: How the hell is MadBum not on your list? Even most of the Giants-haters have him somewhere in their top-10.

by boonitez on Dec 30, 2008 1:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Brett Anderson > Cahill.

Snider already made the majors last season at the end of the year.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 30, 2008 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

people keep saying that but I don't get why

Anderson has the better strikeout stuff, but Cahill has the better control. He’s demonstrating that he knows how to use his stuff better than Anderson. Can you elaborate on your statement? And I knew Snider made the majors; I should’ve said become an everyday player, my bad.

by boonitez on Dec 31, 2008 1:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson has better control also. Cahill probably has better stuff. I think you got it mixed. Anderson though is more polished, still has some projectability to him, and he’s has a chance at having 3 to 4 plus offerings. Which is more than Cahill can say. And while Cahill is an extreme groundball pitcher due to his power sink, Anderson still gets near 2 grounders for every fly ball. Which is damn good. Being lefthander helps as well to his value. For what it’s worth Anderson was ranked as the A’s top prospect over Cahill for 2009 by BA. Though they are probably interchangeable at this point. I think the general consensus is that Anderson is a safe bet, with potential to be an ace.

by Hobbes2d on Dec 31, 2008 2:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The BA podcast on the AL West Top 10 lists included a really interesting debate on the relative merits of Anderson, Cahill, and Neftali Perez (as well as between Texas and Oakland’s systems in general). For a good summation of both arguments (re: Anderson v. Cahill) I’d definitely recommend giving it a listen.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 31, 2008 7:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wilriv's list

1. EME
2. EME
3. EME
4. EME
5. EME
6. Posey (SS)
7. EME
8. EME
9. EME
10. EME

<3 wil

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Believe that Ishikawa deserves a place on the list and in the City.

comics | art | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Dec 30, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Revised!

1. Lucy Lui
2. EME
3. EME
4. In The City
5. EME
6. Posey (SS)
7. EME
8. Ishikawa
9. EME
10. Los Angeles

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 30, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re-revised

1. Lucy Lui
2. Jane Seymour
3. Roselyn Sanchez
4. Christy Canyon
5. Jessica Yellin
6. Heaven – Los Angeles
7. The City
8. SS Posey
9. OF EME
10. 2b Frandsen

by wilriv21 on Dec 30, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

wilriv wears a cup

We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth

by oldjacket on Dec 30, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

3. Roselyn Sanchez

Higher on my list ! My top two are :

1. Penelope Cruz

2. Roselyn Sanchez

SFW

The clock doesn't matter in baseball. Time stands still or moves backwards. Theoretically, one game could go on forever. Some seem to.-Herb Caen

My adopted son Matt Downs . Utility Infielder with a Bat !

by nvsfg on Dec 30, 2008 8:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lovely Roselyn

Did you watch the opening scene in “Without A Trace” where she is in lying in bed in lavender undergarments?

by wilriv21 on Jan 2, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

11. TakeaGiantStepandGo

Proud father of Eric Surkamp!!!

by The Thrill on Dec 30, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

11. Not using pronouns
12. TakeaGiantStepandGo

GROUGTHINK ALERT

by groug on Dec 31, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

this made me laugh so hard

Never change, wil.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Dec 31, 2008 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it’s just so … wilriv

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Dec 31, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Aw , jeez. Christy Canyon?

More aptly named Dolly Dangle , or Barbara Bush.

Snap into a silicone Slim Jim , Pops.

But if you insist on waxing nostalgic…Barbara Dare.

Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers

by victor frankenstein on Jan 1, 2009 2:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

MINE?

Wieters
Price
Heyward
Bumgarner
Rasmus
Snider
Anderson
Cahill
Feliz
Maybin

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 30, 2008 11:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I just copy other people, which is why

Posey has to be in my top 10 somewhere:

Don (Nashua, NH): Seems like there are always lots of pitching questions…How would you rank the Top 5 Offensive Prospects for this upcoming season? Thanks

SportsNation Jim Callis: The top five position-player prospects, for me, are Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, Colby Rasmus, Buster Posey and Tim Beckham.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Dec 31, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs